(06-02-2020 06:53 PM)ODUCoach Wrote: [ -> ]Adopted, did you write this? 
How Fear Caused the Global Lockdowns
Took the time to read this and actually fact check links. FWIW, the article is written by a CEO of a auto repair company so any of his medical opinions should not be construed as coming from someone that is qualified to provide medical opinions. But, thats not the point if he provides substantive links to his viewpoints. First 2 paragrpahs are 100% opinion based and set the tone for the article.
To put things in perspective, the virus is now known to have an infection fatality rate for most people under 65 that is no more dangerous than driving 13 to 101 miles per day. Even by conservative estimates, the odds of COVID-19 death are roughly in line with existing baseline odds of dying in any given year.
This is a strange comparison that also cherry picks 65 as if we shouldnt care what happens to people over 65 but either way....the statistics in that source are not peer reviewed and state "don't use this as evident for policy making." Umm ok? I guess we don't know if that is an apt comparison or not.
New York City reached over a 25% infection rate and yet 99.98% of all people in the city under 45 survived, making it comparable to death rates by normal accidents.
Now, we move the goalposts to 45 years old. According to a google search, statewide NYC had a 13% positive antibody test. The tests done in NYC, which focused on lower income, predominately minority communities, had an anti-body test of 27%. Overall, it appears NYC had a 20% positive antibody result.
But of course the whole linchpin of the lockdown argument is that it would have been even worse without such a step. Sweden never closed down borders, primary schools, restaurants, or businesses, and never mandated masks, yet 99.998% of all their people under 60 have survived and their hospitals were never overburdened.
Now, we move to Sweden and go with 60 years of age.... Sweden has been a hot topic on here because they have imposed some of the loosest social distancing measures and people peg that as what should have been done here. Sweden has had 4,542 deatsh in a population of 10 million. Its neighbors with similar demographs (Denmark- 580 deaths; Norway- 237 deaths, Finland 321 deaths).
Sweden had 74 deaths yesterday alone. Sweden has among the highest death per capita in the world (3rd most deaths per 100,000 in population in the world behind Italy and Uk. The state spidemologist came out today and said:
"If we were to encounter the same disease again, knowing exactly what we know about it today, I think we would settle on doing something in between what Sweden did and what the rest of the world has done."
Earlier said:
"We never really calculated with a high death toll initially, I must say," he said. "We calculated on more people being sick, but the death toll really came as a surprise to us."
FWIW, they have also stated that they were unable to keep the disease out of homes for the elderly.
Even if you believe Swedens policies worked despite having one of the highest death rates, we also cannont implement policies of Sweden here. They live in a different climate that is way less dense than us with a demographic profile that favors more people living alone (over 50% of residents live alone compared to 28% in the U.S.).
13% of Swedish adults have obesidy and 7% have diabetes. 40% of Americans are obese and 9% have diabetes.
Sweden has universal healthcare.; 29% of U.S. residents dont have healthcare.
Sweden provides paid sick leave. Parents get paid to stay home when they have a sick child.
They tried unsuccessfully at locking down nursing homes. They hoped the lack of a shutdown would help the economy but they have had similar economic impacts as Denmark and Norway, who had strict measures.
Essentially Sweden had as many advantages of fighting this virus as any country in world and implemented unique policies that were looser than other countries. They have had the 3rd most deaths per capita in the world, if that is something you believe is a success, sobeit.
This is the same Neil Ferguson who in 2005 predicted 200 million could die from the bird flu. Total deaths over the last 15 years turned out to be 455. This is the same Neil Ferguson who in 2009 predicted that 65,000 people could die in the U.K. from the swine flu. The final number ended up around 392. Now, in 2020, he predicted that 500,000 British would die from coronavirus.
This is the same type of headline that people point to. Neil Ferguson said 2 million Americans would die and we've only had 100k, how wrong was he!!!! The model he presented was based on no social distancing. Im not sure how people have a hard time grasping this concept, it seems so clear to me.
The prediction about bird flu deaths was based on if it spread to humans. To quote: "Scientists fear the virus could evolve into a form which could be passed from human to human with catastrophic consequences."
"His deeply flawed model led the United States to fear over 2 million deaths and was used to justify locking down nearly the entire nation. Dr. Ferguson is a character of Shakespearean drama and tragedy. His March 17 presentation to British elites on the dire need to take action ironically may have infected Boris Johnson and other top British officials, as Mr. Ferguson himself tested positive for COVID-19 two days later. Then in May he resigned in disgrace after he broke his own quarantine rules to meet clandestinely with a married woman."
Now, we have evolved into a hit piece on Dr. Ferguson. Why is this relevant to anything?
B
ut several inconvenient thorns keep bursting that narrative -- and none larger than Sweden, the only Western country not to lock down its citizens. Sweden never closed borders, restaurants, businesses, or primary schools. The only legal action officials took was to ban events that entail crowds larger than 50 people.
Well, thats not really true, they had other measures as well other than the limit to 50 people but we still saw Sweden fair signficantly worse than countries in similar climates, healthcare, and demographics. It's not even really close.
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