(04-27-2020 03:50 PM)Gilesfan Wrote: [ -> ] (04-27-2020 02:52 PM)Monarchblue Wrote: [ -> ] (04-27-2020 02:42 PM)Gilesfan Wrote: [ -> ] (04-27-2020 02:37 PM)Monarchblue Wrote: [ -> ] (04-27-2020 02:31 PM)Gilesfan Wrote: [ -> ]My view point is not emotionally driven at all, it is statistics driven. The evidence is overwhelming that social distancing is working and that if things were opened up freely, we would have hundred of thousands of deaths on our hands. Thats not something I'm willing to tolerate. I don't see how any could debate that. This virus is lethal in ways this country has never seen before. Its not surprising to me in the least that NY would have the most deaths, it's going to hit that area first and the hardest due to population density. But, without social distancing measures, it would have (and still could) spread to other areas of the country. To use what our current mortality rate, we are at 0.563 mortality rate. To get to 100,000 deaths, all you need is 1,776,199 cases (we are at over a million right now).
Now, others have a higher tolerance for the amount of deaths that are acceptable to you. You might believe that less severe social distancing measures should be taken place. That is your prerogative. While the odds of surviving are fairly high, this virus does not have any rhyme or reason. It's killed young people with no pre-existing conditions (granted, not many). I think people that haven't had loved ones affected by it probably don't take it serious enough. There are people that think "Oh, Im young and don't have a pre-existing condition, I'll be fine. The pre-existing condition thing is kind of silly. Its been a way to minimize the virus. How many of us over 30 have high blood pressure? How many have asthma (though, that may be sparred). How many have pre-diabetes or full diabetes? HIV, Auto-immune disease, etc?
Im not going to say some are don't care about people dying, but I don't understand the thought process of people that pawn off our deaths as "acceptable" because they had some type of condition or they were over the age of 55.
The economy will rebound, people over the course of a million years have recovered from poor economic conditions. You cant rebound from death.
Quote:The evidence is overwhelming that social distancing is working and that if things were opened up freely, we would have hundred of thousands of deaths on our hands.
You say this a lot, but you never site that overwhelming evidence.
I posted a link that showed how Sweden did compared to countries that border it and are similar in physical features. Countries implemented social distancing for a reason because the evidence shows how contagious it is. Its seems like common sense to me based on the evidence provided. I've never read someone say that social distancing has no impact on the spread of the virus.
Again, no reference to the states in our country that are not locked down, and Swedish scientists, and many others, believe that while their numbers may be a bit elevated right now, they will be in much better shape down the road since the extreme social distancing measures all but guarantee a significant second wave. Do you have evidence that this position is wrong, or do you just prefer not to accept it?
Which States did no social distancing measures and what are there numbers?
My hope is a vaccine or better treatment is introduced before a "second wave" comes.
A vaccine would be wonderful. We still don't have one for the flu or HIV. Highly unlikely there will be one by the fall. Even if there is one in the queue right now, it won't come to market in a long time and many people will not be willing to be the guinea pig.
(04-27-2020 03:47 PM)ODUCoach Wrote: [ -> ] (04-27-2020 03:45 PM)PhillyFlorz Wrote: [ -> ]I would take you up on it, but I fear that someone (who is carrying the virus and doesn't believe in social distancing is effective), sneezes on me first, thereby causing my untimely demise and, in the process, unable to see your invoices.
Stay home. He can email you the invoices. If you are worried about being exposed, lock yourself in. No judgement coming from here.
I don't want to turn this into something analogous to the "Fire Jones, Keep Jones" rants, but my last thought on the virus topic is this: I can lock myself in. But at some point I want to open my door and go to a restaurant. And, for me personally, I think that will be a long time coming if the 30% of the country who believes social distancing is ineffective is out there running around contagious, and, in the process, spreading the virus like wildfire. At the end of the day, my feeling is we are in this together. We either let everyone run free and take our chances or we all tread lightly in terms of loosening restrictions.
(04-27-2020 04:01 PM)EverRespect Wrote: [ -> ] (04-27-2020 03:17 PM)PhillyFlorz Wrote: [ -> ] (04-27-2020 02:52 PM)Monarchblue Wrote: [ -> ] (04-27-2020 02:42 PM)Gilesfan Wrote: [ -> ] (04-27-2020 02:37 PM)Monarchblue Wrote: [ -> ]You say this a lot, but you never site that overwhelming evidence.
I posted a link that showed how Sweden did compared to countries that border it and are similar in physical features. Countries implemented social distancing for a reason because the evidence shows how contagious it is. Its seems like common sense to me based on the evidence provided. I've never read someone say that social distancing has no impact on the spread of the virus.
Again, no reference to the states in our country that are not locked down, and Swedish scientists, and many others, believe that while their numbers may be a bit elevated right now, they will be in much better shape down the road since the extreme social distancing measures all but guarantee a significant second wave. Do you have evidence that this position is wrong, or do you just prefer not to accept it?
I say we conduct a test. To those who do not believe social distancing has no impact on the spread of the virus, have those fill the Ted for two hours. We then test them a few days later to see if they contracted the virus. I'd be curious to know how many of the "social distancing does not work crowd" would be willing to take their chances at participating.
Have a good basketball game or conference and most people would be there.
If this is true, which I dont believe, what does this tell you about the intelligence of our population? I mean...most people arent that stupid.
(04-27-2020 12:23 PM)Monarchblue Wrote: [ -> ] (04-27-2020 11:56 AM)Gilesfan Wrote: [ -> ] (04-27-2020 10:01 AM)Monarchblue Wrote: [ -> ]Based on the facts, his position seems far more likely to be accurate than our state gov't that said we may be in phase 1 for 2 years.
Some facts about Hampton Roads (population around 1.5 million):
Positive tests:1,703
Hospitalizations:359
Deaths: 56
2 YEARS?????
What they need to gauge is not how many cases there are when social distancing measures are in place....thats pointless for determining when social distancing measures should be open. What they need to gauge is how many cases (and hospitalizations/deaths) there would be if there were lesser-to-no social distancing measures.
To put in other terms; imagine no cars were allowed on the road (or very few). Someone came in and said, we shouldn't have a speed limit because look at how few accidents we've had! Does that make sense? Or would it make sense to say, how many accidents would we have if people were allowed to drive and there was no speed limit?
I take it you are not really going out based on what you believe about the virus and lock downs, and that is totally cool. I would never tell anyone to put themselves in a situation that they are uncomfortable with, but you are missing what is ACTUALLY going on out in the world in HR. There isn't a ton of social distancing going on at this point, at least not the lock down portion. People are out everywhere where I live. The traffic in this area doesn't look much different than it did on a normal day. The reality is that we are just driving more people to Home Depot and Walmart, because nothing else is open. We are driving people to stores, because the parks and beaches aren't open. We also have tons of military people still going to work everyday. This lock down is not what you seem to imagine it is in our area, so to believe that there will be a massive outbreak if we open the beaches, parks, and more business just does not seem to compute with the reality of what is happening in the world around us.
EDIT:
To be clear. I totally support social distancing as we ease back toward normalcy. I believe when we open up we should all wear masks, sanitize our hands constantly, keep our distance the best we can, etc. I just don't believe the selective closing of businesses, parks, and beaches make sense at this point.
As part of my essential company, I've driven all over hell's half-acre since this thing started. Traffic may be the single silver lining of all this.
I've been in ONE (1) back-up, which occurred last Thursday when a white sedan hit one of those Scorpion(?) traffic-worker protection trucks with the back that folds down, closing three lanes of 264E.
Today, I left Wmbg at 5:00 and drove to the southside, never once slowing down. Traffic is very different from a normal day.
ETA: To Giles hypothetical, I only drove 5 mph over the posted limits. :)
(04-27-2020 04:05 PM)EverRespect Wrote: [ -> ] (04-27-2020 03:50 PM)Gilesfan Wrote: [ -> ] (04-27-2020 02:52 PM)Monarchblue Wrote: [ -> ] (04-27-2020 02:42 PM)Gilesfan Wrote: [ -> ] (04-27-2020 02:37 PM)Monarchblue Wrote: [ -> ]You say this a lot, but you never site that overwhelming evidence.
I posted a link that showed how Sweden did compared to countries that border it and are similar in physical features. Countries implemented social distancing for a reason because the evidence shows how contagious it is. Its seems like common sense to me based on the evidence provided. I've never read someone say that social distancing has no impact on the spread of the virus.
Again, no reference to the states in our country that are not locked down, and Swedish scientists, and many others, believe that while their numbers may be a bit elevated right now, they will be in much better shape down the road since the extreme social distancing measures all but guarantee a significant second wave. Do you have evidence that this position is wrong, or do you just prefer not to accept it?
Which States did no social distancing measures and what are there numbers?
My hope is a vaccine or better treatment is introduced before a "second wave" comes.
A vaccine would be wonderful. We still don't have one for the flu or HIV. Highly unlikely there will be one by the fall. Even if there is one in the queue right now, it won't come to market in a long time and many people will not be willing to be the guinea pig.
I'll have to try and find the source of where I read this, it was several days ago and I really have no clue as to where, BUT:
There is one vaccine in phase 2 trials Larger group) right now, several in phase 1 (smaller group), and several more pre-phase 1.
The flu and HIV aren't like covid. But SARS is, and there's no vaccine for SARS despite the fact that outbreak was 17 years ago.
(04-26-2020 11:26 AM)Grommet Wrote: [ -> ] (04-25-2020 06:14 PM)Grommet Wrote: [ -> ] (04-24-2020 12:17 PM)Grommet Wrote: [ -> ] (04-23-2020 11:33 AM)Grommet Wrote: [ -> ] (04-22-2020 05:57 PM)Grommet Wrote: [ -> ]4/22: 60,778 tested, 10,266 positive...16.9%
4/23: 64,518 tested, 10,998 positive...17.0%
4/24: 69, 015 tested, 11,594 positive...16.8%
4/25: 72,178 tested, 12,366 positive...17.1%
4/26: 76,118 tested, 12,970 positive...17.0%
4/27: 80,180 tested, 13,535 positive...16.9%
(04-27-2020 08:15 PM)smudge12 Wrote: [ -> ]Seems like there's been a worldwide spike in general deaths unattributed to the pandemic. While more research is needed, there's probably a strong correlation with the spike and Covid-19 deaths which were never counted:
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020...aths.html.
The real death toll in NYC itself might be more than double (which corresponds with what dieners have been warning).
Your link doesn't work, but here's what seems to be a similar story from the WP
https://www.washingtonpost.com/investiga...ercounted/
Yeah, I know people have assumed their are less cases of COVID than what has been reported because they believe hospitals are cooking the numbers. I think its the opposite and there are more deaths than reported based on some evidence that the virus hit us a little earlier than what was reported.
(04-27-2020 09:39 PM)Gilesfan Wrote: [ -> ]Yeah, I know people have assumed their are less cases of COVID than what has been reported because they believe hospitals are cooking the numbers. I think its the opposite and there are more deaths than reported based on some evidence that the virus hit us a little earlier than what was reported.
.
![[Image: 2b1b6b4203c6f1a3d4939416b742903a.jpg]](https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200428/2b1b6b4203c6f1a3d4939416b742903a.jpg)
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(04-27-2020 10:01 AM)Monarchblue Wrote: [ -> ]Based on the facts, his position seems far more likely to be accurate than our state gov't that said we may be in phase 1 for 2 years.
Some facts about Hampton Roads (population around 1.5 million):
Positive tests:1,703
Hospitalizations:359
Deaths: 56
2 YEARS?????
Some facts about Hampton Roads (population around 1.5 million):
Positive tests:1,767 (+64)
Hospitalizations:373 (+14)
Deaths: 61 (+5)
Virginia Beach:
Positive tests:359 (+4)
(04-28-2020 10:03 AM)Monarchblue Wrote: [ -> ] (04-27-2020 10:01 AM)Monarchblue Wrote: [ -> ]Based on the facts, his position seems far more likely to be accurate than our state gov't that said we may be in phase 1 for 2 years.
Some facts about Hampton Roads (population around 1.5 million):
Positive tests:1,703
Hospitalizations:359
Deaths: 56
2 YEARS?????
Some facts about Hampton Roads (population around 1.5 million):
Positive tests:1,767 (+64)
Hospitalizations:373 (+14)
Deaths: 61 (+5)
Virginia Beach:
Positive tests:359 (+4)
Just think when all those tourist from New Jersey start coming back to the beach.
Luckily, it seems that almost nobody catches the covid outdoors.
Imagine the oceanfront worker or business owner that makes almost all of their annual income in the 100 days between Memorial Day and Labor Day.
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(04-28-2020 11:15 AM)Monarchblue Wrote: [ -> ]Luckily, it seems that almost nobody catches the covid outdoors.
Imagine the oceanfront worker or business owner that makes almost all of their annual income in the 100 days between Memorial Day and Labor Day.
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Lets assume they are spread apart on the beach. Do they make a day trip from New Jersey to the beach or are they going to be staying at hotels/AirBnbs, etc. and eating at oceanfront restaurants?
They will be staying in hotels and eating in restaurants. It wouldn't do the economy much good if they didn't.
(04-28-2020 12:45 PM)ODUDrunkard13 Wrote: [ -> ]![[Image: BogusIcyHusky-max-1mb.gif]](https://thumbs.gfycat.com/BogusIcyHusky-max-1mb.gif)
Hahaha...at least we have something to do!
(04-28-2020 12:47 PM)ODUCoach Wrote: [ -> ] (04-28-2020 12:45 PM)ODUDrunkard13 Wrote: [ -> ]
Hahaha...at least we have something to do!
True. And as long as it is cordial, it's all good with me.
It's all well and good until it turns into human centipede
(04-28-2020 01:22 PM)Cyniclone Wrote: [ -> ]It's all well and good until it turns into human centipede
And this is why, instead of running in a circle, it's better to run in a rhombus.