The excess deaths is an interesting stat to me, but we won't really know what it means for at least another year. First, we'll want to look at the overall excess death number for the year. It's possible that many of the people dying now are ones who would have died this year anyway. For some, it may be a direct result of COVID. For others, it may be an indirect result, because they didn't go see their doctor and died of another cause (perhaps they would have dies this year anyway, perhaps they could have been saved).
My point is this: we can't just attribute every excess death to an "undercounting" of COVID deaths. Some of these will be because people aren't getting treatment they otherwise would have, had we not shut everything down.
(06-05-2020 09:02 AM)Gilesfan Wrote: [ -> ] (06-05-2020 06:26 AM)757ODU Wrote: [ -> ] (06-04-2020 04:22 PM)Monarchblue Wrote: [ -> ]Sadly, that is not surprising. We are seeing similar reports all over the country about cause of death, and I do vaguely remember when VA started counting funny too. If I remember correctly, they are also counting multiple positives for the same person as additional positives as well... so patient gets tested at Rite Aide, tests positive, goes to their doctor, gets tested again, goes to the hospital gets tested again, spends a few days in the hospital, gets tested again before being released, that person counts as 4 positive cases.
Virginia has completely failed. Democratic states have failed. Doomsdayer's have failed. Fauchi failed. Birx failed. Trump failed. This has been one big failure, and yet we still have people believing the idea that there are more COVID deaths than what's being reported. I look around, and see not only a bunch of people that have failed, but a bunch of people that are cheering on failure. It is sickening.
I think it's clear as day that there are more COVID deaths than what is reported. How else could we have an unprecendented increase in deaths over a 3 month period? We don't just have a spike in deaths over a short period of time for no reason. Florida has something like 4,500 pneumonia deaths in a 3 month time period when the most they have had (maybe ever but at least going back a number of years )was around 1,000. I've yet to see someone explain that.
In 7 prior weeks ending April 25th, there 70,000 more Americans die than normal (actually more bc Conn, NC, and Penn) were missing data. The number of reported COVID deaths were 49,100.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/13/opini...eaths.html
You keep sharing this one report. It is fake news.
Quote:Our ruling
A Facebook post said, "According to the CDC, so far this year, Florida has had 1,762 deaths from COVID-19 and 5,185 from pneumonia. Average pneumonia deaths in Florida from 2013-2018 for the same time period are 918. Probably just a coincidence, yeah?"
Each number here stems from actual data, but the post makes comparisons between them that are misleading. Pneumonia deaths in Florida are up this year compared with some recent years, but the tweet ignores that the CDC’s provisional data for this year counts some deaths for now as being caused by both pneumonia and COVID-19. Finalized 2020 data released next year will list only one underlying cause of death.
We rate this claim False.
https://www.politifact.com/factchecks/20...hs-uses-f/
(06-05-2020 09:28 AM)757ODU Wrote: [ -> ] (06-05-2020 09:02 AM)Gilesfan Wrote: [ -> ] (06-05-2020 06:26 AM)757ODU Wrote: [ -> ] (06-04-2020 04:22 PM)Monarchblue Wrote: [ -> ]Sadly, that is not surprising. We are seeing similar reports all over the country about cause of death, and I do vaguely remember when VA started counting funny too. If I remember correctly, they are also counting multiple positives for the same person as additional positives as well... so patient gets tested at Rite Aide, tests positive, goes to their doctor, gets tested again, goes to the hospital gets tested again, spends a few days in the hospital, gets tested again before being released, that person counts as 4 positive cases.
Virginia has completely failed. Democratic states have failed. Doomsdayer's have failed. Fauchi failed. Birx failed. Trump failed. This has been one big failure, and yet we still have people believing the idea that there are more COVID deaths than what's being reported. I look around, and see not only a bunch of people that have failed, but a bunch of people that are cheering on failure. It is sickening.
I think it's clear as day that there are more COVID deaths than what is reported. How else could we have an unprecendented increase in deaths over a 3 month period? We don't just have a spike in deaths over a short period of time for no reason. Florida has something like 4,500 pneumonia deaths in a 3 month time period when the most they have had (maybe ever but at least going back a number of years )was around 1,000. I've yet to see someone explain that.
In 7 prior weeks ending April 25th, there 70,000 more Americans die than normal (actually more bc Conn, NC, and Penn) were missing data. The number of reported COVID deaths were 49,100.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/13/opini...eaths.html
Keep reading newspapers, and keep believing media and health department statistics. I have now had 2 instances of people I know that were classified as COVID-19 deaths that passed from other circumstances that never tested positive for COVID. I see one example above that is saying the same thing. Hospitals are getting paid an incredible amount of money for COVID treatment. We know that the coronavirus is killing people, but we acted, and continue to act in a way that has been a detriment to the country as a whole. If you are as smart as I think you are, you need to come to grips with the idea that our leaders as a whole failed this country miserably. Especially our blackface governor that is trying to make up for his past of racism by tearing down statues. I back the statues coming down 100%, but I don't back the political motive behind the idea. Giles, your medical expert, racist governor failed you. Accept it.
Edit: To be clear, there is some frustration being taken out by me saying your governor, because I voted for the guy, and I am sick over it.
I mean, you know of 2 cases.............
The whole hospitals are being paid to count them as COVID has been debunked.
You can have the opinion that you are entitled to.
(06-05-2020 09:33 AM)ODUCoach Wrote: [ -> ]The excess deaths is an interesting stat to me, but we won't really know what it means for at least another year. First, we'll want to look at the overall excess death number for the year. It's possible that many of the people dying now are ones who would have died this year anyway. For some, it may be a direct result of COVID. For others, it may be an indirect result, because they didn't go see their doctor and died of another cause (perhaps they would have dies this year anyway, perhaps they could have been saved).
My point is this: we can't just attribute every excess death to an "undercounting" of COVID deaths. Some of these will be because people aren't getting treatment they otherwise would have, had we not shut everything down.
I get it, we will have a better grasp on this in time but I think you, and anyone else, has to admit that the majority of excess deaths from February to June are likely due to COVID related issues. There really isn't an explanation for why so many people are dying all of a sudden; maybe a small number can be attributed to other issues...say cancer screenings (though plenty are still doing that, like a buddy that was just diagnosed). We are talking about a huge number of deaths above what is expected over a short amount of time.
There is no reason to say every excess death is COVID related, but its very clear to say the large majority are very likely to be COVID related. And if you believe the virus was in our country before February (Im unclear on this but some on here believe that), there are probably deaths before then that were COVID related. The number that died because they weren't getting treatment is menicule.
I cannot see a conceivable explanation for there being less COVID deaths than what was reported. It has to be more than what has been reported unless murder hornets are secretly killing people.
(06-05-2020 09:36 AM)Monarchblue Wrote: [ -> ] (06-05-2020 09:02 AM)Gilesfan Wrote: [ -> ] (06-05-2020 06:26 AM)757ODU Wrote: [ -> ] (06-04-2020 04:22 PM)Monarchblue Wrote: [ -> ]Sadly, that is not surprising. We are seeing similar reports all over the country about cause of death, and I do vaguely remember when VA started counting funny too. If I remember correctly, they are also counting multiple positives for the same person as additional positives as well... so patient gets tested at Rite Aide, tests positive, goes to their doctor, gets tested again, goes to the hospital gets tested again, spends a few days in the hospital, gets tested again before being released, that person counts as 4 positive cases.
Virginia has completely failed. Democratic states have failed. Doomsdayer's have failed. Fauchi failed. Birx failed. Trump failed. This has been one big failure, and yet we still have people believing the idea that there are more COVID deaths than what's being reported. I look around, and see not only a bunch of people that have failed, but a bunch of people that are cheering on failure. It is sickening.
I think it's clear as day that there are more COVID deaths than what is reported. How else could we have an unprecendented increase in deaths over a 3 month period? We don't just have a spike in deaths over a short period of time for no reason. Florida has something like 4,500 pneumonia deaths in a 3 month time period when the most they have had (maybe ever but at least going back a number of years )was around 1,000. I've yet to see someone explain that.
In 7 prior weeks ending April 25th, there 70,000 more Americans die than normal (actually more bc Conn, NC, and Penn) were missing data. The number of reported COVID deaths were 49,100.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/13/opini...eaths.html
You keep sharing this one report. It is fake news.
Quote:Our ruling
A Facebook post said, "According to the CDC, so far this year, Florida has had 1,762 deaths from COVID-19 and 5,185 from pneumonia. Average pneumonia deaths in Florida from 2013-2018 for the same time period are 918. Probably just a coincidence, yeah?"
Each number here stems from actual data, but the post makes comparisons between them that are misleading. Pneumonia deaths in Florida are up this year compared with some recent years, but the tweet ignores that the CDC’s provisional data for this year counts some deaths for now as being caused by both pneumonia and COVID-19. Finalized 2020 data released next year will list only one underlying cause of death.
We rate this claim False.
https://www.politifact.com/factchecks/20...hs-uses-f/
Thanks for posting that, I haven't seen that on fact checker. It seems like the numbers are off but the premise is still the same that there are way more pneumonia (and deaths in general) than would be expected.
I have no clue on this but Ive been wondering for some time if viral load is an issue. I've not researched it at all. We had a large number of young, healthy healthcare workers die.
"Yealy said he doesn’t know exactly why the prevalence and severity of COVID-19 seems to have fallen. He said it likely reflects an interplay of things including weather, possible genetic changes in the virus, people watching themselves more closely for symptoms, and better medical decisions and treatment."
Either way, this is great news.
It may be premature, but I am going to go ahead and offer an admission that it appears I was wrong in my assessment of the level of long term economic devastation the shutdown would cause. What I see with my eyes, leads me to believe that people will get back out there, and businesses will recover quickly as the nation opens back up. More importantly the incredible number of new jobs in May, and the faith the market is showing in the stability of the economy, seems to show that we will see something much closer to a V shaped recovery than I expected. I hope I am right in my belief that I was wrong lol.
On a side note, what is really surprising is that our company, which is dependent on resort, restaurant, retail, and hospitality has seen a pretty large bounce over the last couple weeks. We still aren't real close to where we left off, but things have bounced back more, and more quickly than I expected.
(06-05-2020 12:44 PM)Monarchblue Wrote: [ -> ]It may be premature, but I am going to go ahead and offer an admission that it appears I was wrong in my assessment of the level of long term economic devastation the shutdown would cause. What I see with my eyes, leads me to believe that people will get back out there, and businesses will recover quickly as the nation opens back up. More importantly the incredible number of new jobs in May, and the faith the market is showing in the stability of the economy, seems to show that we will see something much closer to a V shaped recovery than I expected. I hope I am right in my belief that I was wrong lol.
On a side note, what is really surprising is that our company, which is dependent on resort, restaurant, retail, and hospitality has seen a pretty large bounce over the last couple weeks. We still aren't real close to where we left off, but things have bounced back more, and more quickly than I expected.
I agree on the economy. The difference between the 08 crisis and others were failed economic principles that affected the economy. Our economy was fine, it was directly attributed to the virus. Once things open up, people will get their jobs back.
(06-05-2020 12:51 PM)Gilesfan Wrote: [ -> ] (06-05-2020 12:44 PM)Monarchblue Wrote: [ -> ]It may be premature, but I am going to go ahead and offer an admission that it appears I was wrong in my assessment of the level of long term economic devastation the shutdown would cause. What I see with my eyes, leads me to believe that people will get back out there, and businesses will recover quickly as the nation opens back up. More importantly the incredible number of new jobs in May, and the faith the market is showing in the stability of the economy, seems to show that we will see something much closer to a V shaped recovery than I expected. I hope I am right in my belief that I was wrong lol.
On a side note, what is really surprising is that our company, which is dependent on resort, restaurant, retail, and hospitality has seen a pretty large bounce over the last couple weeks. We still aren't real close to where we left off, but things have bounced back more, and more quickly than I expected.
I agree on the economy. The difference between the 08 crisis and others were failed economic principles that affected the economy. Our economy was fine, it was directly attributed to the virus. Once things open up, people will get their jobs back.
I respectfully disagree. I think many companies are finding that it is possible to function without many of the jobs that have been furloughed or eliminated. Wal-Mart (love em or Hate em) just announced that after restrictions are eased, a bunch of their stores will continue to close early instead of staying open 24 hours as they used to. They are saving on thousands of third shift jobs and shifting that restocking work to day time staff. I think many more organizations will find that they can do more with less and through automation and online there by eliminating the need for people.
(06-05-2020 01:19 PM)BigBlueMonarch Wrote: [ -> ] (06-05-2020 12:51 PM)Gilesfan Wrote: [ -> ] (06-05-2020 12:44 PM)Monarchblue Wrote: [ -> ]It may be premature, but I am going to go ahead and offer an admission that it appears I was wrong in my assessment of the level of long term economic devastation the shutdown would cause. What I see with my eyes, leads me to believe that people will get back out there, and businesses will recover quickly as the nation opens back up. More importantly the incredible number of new jobs in May, and the faith the market is showing in the stability of the economy, seems to show that we will see something much closer to a V shaped recovery than I expected. I hope I am right in my belief that I was wrong lol.
On a side note, what is really surprising is that our company, which is dependent on resort, restaurant, retail, and hospitality has seen a pretty large bounce over the last couple weeks. We still aren't real close to where we left off, but things have bounced back more, and more quickly than I expected.
I agree on the economy. The difference between the 08 crisis and others were failed economic principles that affected the economy. Our economy was fine, it was directly attributed to the virus. Once things open up, people will get their jobs back.
I respectfully disagree. I think many companies are finding that it is possible to function without many of the jobs that have been furloughed or eliminated. Wal-Mart (love em or Hate em) just announced that after restrictions are eased, a bunch of their stores will continue to close early instead of staying open 24 hours as they used to. They are saving on thousands of third shift jobs and shifting that restocking work to day time staff. I think many more organizations will find that they can do more with less and through automation and online there by eliminating the need for people.
Nice example, but Im not sure how much of an impact that makes. It's low performing stores that appear to be closing from like midnight to 6 am. There can't be that many employees on duty during those times.
I think there will be a shift to less office space with more employees working flex or some at home hours but that would have a large impact on the number of employees. Some companies have backed off on the work at home idea once the newness wore off (after a few weeks, reality set in for some).
We are already seeing some economic recovery (listen to Trump gloat today....even saying George Floyd would be proud...WTF?) Jobs will slowly return as places open back up. Mortgages are insane right now. Interest rates are low. Consumer confidence is rising.
The concept of companies shredding the fat has existed forever. People always find things to believe that companies will trim excess fat off but I'm not sure if there is ever a measurable affect.
I bet on the market improving and I expect it to be quickly. I put a significant amount of my reserves into the stock market over the past 2 months and I think it will be proven to be a wise decision fairly quickly. Had to avoid even looking at my account for awhile.
(06-05-2020 12:51 PM)Gilesfan Wrote: [ -> ] (06-05-2020 12:44 PM)Monarchblue Wrote: [ -> ]It may be premature, but I am going to go ahead and offer an admission that it appears I was wrong in my assessment of the level of long term economic devastation the shutdown would cause. What I see with my eyes, leads me to believe that people will get back out there, and businesses will recover quickly as the nation opens back up. More importantly the incredible number of new jobs in May, and the faith the market is showing in the stability of the economy, seems to show that we will see something much closer to a V shaped recovery than I expected. I hope I am right in my belief that I was wrong lol.
On a side note, what is really surprising is that our company, which is dependent on resort, restaurant, retail, and hospitality has seen a pretty large bounce over the last couple weeks. We still aren't real close to where we left off, but things have bounced back more, and more quickly than I expected.
I agree on the economy. The difference between the 08 crisis and others were failed economic principles that affected the economy. Our economy was fine, it was directly attributed to the virus. Once things open up, people will get their jobs back.
My fear was that a large segment of the society centered around service and travel would not recover for a long time. Initial indicators seem to point to people's fear not keeping these places from recovering. Agree that fundamentally the economy is strong, so that definitely helps.
Once people consider it safe, you are going to see a tremendous amount of service/travel. People are dying to get out.
(06-05-2020 01:43 PM)Gilesfan Wrote: [ -> ]Once people consider it safe, you are going to see a tremendous amount of service/travel. People are dying to get out.
I am already seeing business travel start to resume too. We are still holding off, and I think for good reason, but a lot of our partners and customers are out there flying around the country again already.
(06-05-2020 01:40 PM)Gilesfan Wrote: [ -> ] (06-05-2020 01:19 PM)BigBlueMonarch Wrote: [ -> ] (06-05-2020 12:51 PM)Gilesfan Wrote: [ -> ] (06-05-2020 12:44 PM)Monarchblue Wrote: [ -> ]It may be premature, but I am going to go ahead and offer an admission that it appears I was wrong in my assessment of the level of long term economic devastation the shutdown would cause. What I see with my eyes, leads me to believe that people will get back out there, and businesses will recover quickly as the nation opens back up. More importantly the incredible number of new jobs in May, and the faith the market is showing in the stability of the economy, seems to show that we will see something much closer to a V shaped recovery than I expected. I hope I am right in my belief that I was wrong lol.
On a side note, what is really surprising is that our company, which is dependent on resort, restaurant, retail, and hospitality has seen a pretty large bounce over the last couple weeks. We still aren't real close to where we left off, but things have bounced back more, and more quickly than I expected.
I agree on the economy. The difference between the 08 crisis and others were failed economic principles that affected the economy. Our economy was fine, it was directly attributed to the virus. Once things open up, people will get their jobs back.
I respectfully disagree. I think many companies are finding that it is possible to function without many of the jobs that have been furloughed or eliminated. Wal-Mart (love em or Hate em) just announced that after restrictions are eased, a bunch of their stores will continue to close early instead of staying open 24 hours as they used to. They are saving on thousands of third shift jobs and shifting that restocking work to day time staff. I think many more organizations will find that they can do more with less and through automation and online there by eliminating the need for people.
Nice example, but Im not sure how much of an impact that makes. It's low performing stores that appear to be closing from like midnight to 6 am. There can't be that many employees on duty during those times.
I think there will be a shift to less office space with more employees working flex or some at home hours but that would have a large impact on the number of employees. Some companies have backed off on the work at home idea once the newness wore off (after a few weeks, reality set in for some).
We are already seeing some economic recovery (listen to Trump gloat today....even saying George Floyd would be proud...WTF?) Jobs will slowly return as places open back up. Mortgages are insane right now. Interest rates are low. Consumer confidence is rising.
The concept of companies shredding the fat has existed forever. People always find things to believe that companies will trim excess fat off but I'm not sure if there is ever a measurable affect.
I bet on the market improving and I expect it to be quickly. I put a significant amount of my reserves into the stock market over the past 2 months and I think it will be proven to be a wise decision fairly quickly. Had to avoid even looking at my account for awhile.
I certainly hope you are right. I live in a jobs challenged area already and people are freaking out.
Do you expect cases to decrease? That's not how math works.
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(06-05-2020 05:31 PM)Monarchblue Wrote: [ -> ]Do you expect cases to decrease? That's not how math works.
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Nope, just sharing info
I’m in SEC country for a bit. Apparently their football players are now on campus. They give them the test upon arrival. If they have it (and a couple have) they are quarantined, if they don’t, they get busy training and getting back into shape. I would think this gives them an advantage over conferences who don’t follow suit. Hoping ODU gets our guys back in Norfolk soon.
(06-05-2020 05:31 PM)Monarchblue Wrote: [ -> ]Do you expect cases to decrease? That's not how math works.
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New cases. There's an increase in new cases not cumulative cases.