CSNbbs

(03-23-2020 08:59 AM)EverRespect Wrote: [ -> ]

WHO'S TROLLING?

Umm... it appears our president.

(03-23-2020 09:04 AM)Gilesfan Wrote: [ -> ]

(03-23-2020 08:59 AM)EverRespect Wrote: [ -> ]

WHO'S TROLLING?

Umm... it appears our president.

You do understand the catastrophic economic consequences of leaving the country closed for 2 months, no? People are predicting 30% unemployment, 1/5 of the economy just vanishing. We are not talking about a little blip and then everything ramps back up at that point, we are talking about economic disaster. At what point does the number of people saved by implementing these measured become small compared to the number of people who die from suicide, opioids, increased crime, etc due to their new found poverty. If you are not considering these questions, you are only considering one half of this crisis. Real decisions need to be made. Difficult ones. And, they need to be made my policy makers not doctors. Doctors are the most cautious among us for obvious reasons, it is their job to proceed with caution, but we elect policy makers to consider the recommendations from doctors, economists, business people, and the community at large in order to make the hard decisions, even when they are not popular. I hope our policy makers will step up and put an end to this disaster and follow the Netherlands' approach of targeting policy toward those who are most vulnerable to Covid, while opening the country for business.

(03-23-2020 09:53 AM)Monarchblue Wrote: [ -> ]

(03-23-2020 09:04 AM)Gilesfan Wrote: [ -> ]

(03-23-2020 08:59 AM)EverRespect Wrote: [ -> ]

WHO'S TROLLING?

Umm... it appears our president.

You do understand the catastrophic economic consequences of leaving the country closed for 2 months, no? People are predicting 30% unemployment, 1/5 of the economy just vanishing. We are not talking about a little blip and then everything ramps back up at that point, we are talking about economic disaster. At what point does the number of people saved by implementing these measured become small compared to the number of people who die from suicide, opioids, increased crime, etc due to their new found poverty. If you are not considering these questions, you are only considering one half of this crisis. Real decisions need to be made. Difficult ones. And, they need to be made my policy makers not doctors. Doctors are the most cautious among us for obvious reasons, it is their job to proceed with caution, but we elect policy makers to consider the recommendations from doctors, economists, business people, and the community at large in order to make the hard decisions, even when they are not popular. I hope our policy makers will step up and put an end to this disaster and follow the Netherlands' approach of targeting policy toward those who are most vulnerable to Covid, while opening the country for business.

I think if this drug treatment they are testing in NY this week is a success, we should be gtg.

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What has Netherlands done that is much different than what we are doing? I just went through their list and it looks remarkably similar to what we are doing right now.

I understand the economy is going to be in bad shape if the country were shut down for 2 months...Im thinking it will be more like 4-6 weeks with slowly moving back to normal. I also know that I don't want a bunch of friends and family dying because we can't stay home for 4 weeks either. I care more about them than I do my 5 bedroom house. And a huge part of the problem is we still have people ignoring the advice and running around town like nothing is happening.

The next 2-6 weeks are going to be critical. We are just now approaching the time period were the number of cases go from 0 to 100 in growth. This is just the start of things. We were already slow to implement policies to combat the virus, if we rush through the process that will make things even worse. Go look through videos of Italian hospitals...and unfortunately its not just older people. The economy is going to tank no matter what we do...whether we try to run things like normal and have hundreds of thousands die or if we shut **** down.

The economy has always recovered from catastrophes. It recovered from 9/11, it recovered from 2008, it will recover from COVID-19, that is 100% clear. We have a long track record of the economy recovering. What we don't need is a bunch of business people rushing the process bc they can't afford to survive for 6 weeks at home.

The role of the president and policy makers is to keep their people safe. People of all ages. I personally care about old people. That is goal number 1.

And FWIW, all Trump is trying to do is create a stock market rebound. Is there anyone that actually believes its a 2 week shutdown and back to normal?

Yes, the 2 weeks was to flatten the curve while we ramp up medical infrastructure to deal with it. The intent was never to shutdown indefinitely. If you paid attention to the daily pressers instead of seeking out doom and glooms and every bad run from every model becoming a new story, you would have known this.

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(03-23-2020 10:24 AM)Gilesfan Wrote: [ -> ]What has Netherlands done that is much different than what we are doing? I just went through their list and it looks remarkably similar to what we are doing right now.

I understand the economy is going to be in bad shape if the country were shut down for 2 months...Im thinking it will be more like 4-6 weeks with slowly moving back to normal. I also know that I don't want a bunch of friends and family dying because we can't stay home for 4 weeks either. I care more about them than I do my 5 bedroom house. And a huge part of the problem is we still have people ignoring the advice and running around town like nothing is happening.

The next 2-6 weeks are going to be critical. We are just now approaching the time period were the number of cases go from 0 to 100 in growth. This is just the start of things. We were already slow to implement policies to combat the virus, if we rush through the process that will make things even worse. Go look through videos of Italian hospitals...and unfortunately its not just older people. The economy is going to tank no matter what we do...whether we try to run things like normal and have hundreds of thousands die or if we shut **** down.

The economy has always recovered from catastrophes. It recovered from 9/11, it recovered from 2008, it will recover from COVID-19, that is 100% clear. We have a long track record of the economy recovering. What we don't need is a bunch of business people rushing the process bc they can't afford to survive for 6 weeks at home.

The role of the president and policy makers is to keep their people safe. People of all ages. I personally care about old people. That is goal number 1.

This is not 9/11 or 2008. This is a total shutdown of the entire economy. Millions of jobs have already been lost and many million more will be lost. I am almost willing to guarantee that more live will be lost by continuing down this road, than will be saved.

What I truly do not understand is that most people believe that there are at least hundreds of thousands of people who have already contracted COVID. I believe the death number is fairly accurate, since people who make it that far into the medical system are likely diagnosed. We are looking at a 1.3% death rate in this country based on just the number of positive tests in this country as of this morning. If we assume a half million people already have COVID, which seems likely considering the number of famous people testing positive, then we have a death rate below .2%, which is flu territory.

(03-23-2020 10:56 AM)Monarchblue Wrote: [ -> ]

(03-23-2020 10:24 AM)Gilesfan Wrote: [ -> ]What has Netherlands done that is much different than what we are doing? I just went through their list and it looks remarkably similar to what we are doing right now.

I understand the economy is going to be in bad shape if the country were shut down for 2 months...Im thinking it will be more like 4-6 weeks with slowly moving back to normal. I also know that I don't want a bunch of friends and family dying because we can't stay home for 4 weeks either. I care more about them than I do my 5 bedroom house. And a huge part of the problem is we still have people ignoring the advice and running around town like nothing is happening.

The next 2-6 weeks are going to be critical. We are just now approaching the time period were the number of cases go from 0 to 100 in growth. This is just the start of things. We were already slow to implement policies to combat the virus, if we rush through the process that will make things even worse. Go look through videos of Italian hospitals...and unfortunately its not just older people. The economy is going to tank no matter what we do...whether we try to run things like normal and have hundreds of thousands die or if we shut **** down.

The economy has always recovered from catastrophes. It recovered from 9/11, it recovered from 2008, it will recover from COVID-19, that is 100% clear. We have a long track record of the economy recovering. What we don't need is a bunch of business people rushing the process bc they can't afford to survive for 6 weeks at home.

The role of the president and policy makers is to keep their people safe. People of all ages. I personally care about old people. That is goal number 1.

This is not 9/11 or 2008. This is a total shutdown of the entire economy. Millions of jobs have already been lost and many million more will be lost. I am almost willing to guarantee that more live will be lost by continuing down this road, than will be saved.

We have hundreds of years worth of data to show that the economy always rebuilds. Its not like this one will be different.

(03-23-2020 10:51 AM)EverRespect Wrote: [ -> ]Yes, the 2 weeks was to flatten the curve while we ramp up medical infrastructure to deal with it. The intent was never to shutdown indefinitely. If you paid attention to the daily pressers instead of seeking out doom and glooms and every bad run from every model becoming a new story, you would have known this.

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This isn't about doom and gloom. A 2 week shutdown is clearly not the answer which is why you will see a much longer shutdown. This things isn't solved in 2 weeks.

(03-23-2020 11:00 AM)Monarchblue Wrote: [ -> ]What I truly do not understand is that most people believe that there are at least hundreds of thousands of people who have already contracted COVID. I believe the death number is fairly accurate, since people who make it that far into the medical system are likely diagnosed. We are looking at a 1.3% death rate in this country based on just the number of positive tests in this country as of this morning. If we assume a half million people already have COVID, which seems likely considering the number of famous people testing positive, then we have a death rate below .2%, which is flu territory.

But, that would only take into account the number of people that are dead today, what about the deathtoll over the next 5-7 days (or longer) for people that currently have the virus (not a new case)?

In South Korea, where they are testing everyone, it's been 0.6% death rate.

The countries that acted fast have reduced the number of deaths by a factor of 10 (we did not act fast). Our medical facilities are lacking and its only going to get worse. (just hope not as bad as Italy) Do more and we can push the number lower, do less and you are going to see a number closer to 3-4%. I don't think people understand that this really hasn't hit us yet, we are barely to the onset of it.

The longer we can postpone it, the better prepared we will be. 2 weeks of partial social distancing is hardly anything (better than nothing). We will get through it, but its going to take at least 4-6 week of strict social distancing. We will not likely see our kids go back to school the rest of the school year. In the next few days, they are likely to announce a stricter quarentine protocol (probably why the National Guard is being deployed).

It seems like a safe estimate is a 4 week shutdown.

(03-23-2020 11:00 AM)Monarchblue Wrote: [ -> ]What I truly do not understand is that most people believe that there are at least hundreds of thousands of people who have already contracted COVID. I believe the death number is fairly accurate, since people who make it that far into the medical system are likely diagnosed. We are looking at a 1.3% death rate in this country based on just the number of positive tests in this country as of this morning. If we assume a half million people already have COVID, which seems likely considering the number of famous people testing positive, then we have a death rate below .2%, which is flu territory.

I think under 1% is reasonable (though it's clearly more dangerous than the flu) if people are able to assess the medical treatment they need. The danger is in overrunning the health system, then that rate along with all the collateral damage that could come from it would skyrocket and would greatly overshadow any economic pain that will come. We need the federal government to float small businesses and service workers through the worst of it, this is exactly when noone should be shying away from deficit spending. Why our government was implementing economic stimulus the past three years is curious but now we need to throw the kitchen sink at the economy and it should bounce back. And here's a newsflash, if people start seeing people triaged in military tents on the news, they're not going out to eat anyway. We'll have plenty of time for hindsight but there's two things that were pretty inevitable from the get go. There would be recession and people would die. How you handle that in a quick moving situation like we're seeing is not clear to anyone. Regardless if they're using all caps and repeating what they just heard on a talk show.

(03-23-2020 08:59 AM)EverRespect Wrote: [ -> ]

WHO'S TROLLING?

LOL, well if a sex therapist and a former reality TV star say so.

WTF has happened to this country?

(03-23-2020 11:42 AM)mturn017 Wrote: [ -> ]

(03-23-2020 08:59 AM)EverRespect Wrote: [ -> ]

WHO'S TROLLING?

LOL, well if a sex therapist and a former reality TV star say so.

WTF has happened to this country?

Lol, I didn't even look her up. I thought she was a real doctor.

(03-23-2020 11:40 AM)mturn017 Wrote: [ -> ]

(03-23-2020 11:00 AM)Monarchblue Wrote: [ -> ]What I truly do not understand is that most people believe that there are at least hundreds of thousands of people who have already contracted COVID. I believe the death number is fairly accurate, since people who make it that far into the medical system are likely diagnosed. We are looking at a 1.3% death rate in this country based on just the number of positive tests in this country as of this morning. If we assume a half million people already have COVID, which seems likely considering the number of famous people testing positive, then we have a death rate below .2%, which is flu territory.

I think under 1% is reasonable (though it's clearly more dangerous than the flu) if people are able to assess the medical treatment they need. The danger is in overrunning the health system, then that rate along with all the collateral damage that could come from it would skyrocket and would greatly overshadow any economic pain that will come. We need the federal government to float small businesses and service workers through the worst of it, this is exactly when noone should be shying away from deficit spending. Why our government was implementing economic stimulus the past three years is curious but now we need to throw the kitchen sink at the economy and it should bounce back. And here's a newsflash, if people start seeing people triaged in military tents on the news, they're not going out to eat anyway. We'll have plenty of time for hindsight but there's two things that were pretty inevitable from the get go. There would be recession and people would die. How you handle that in a quick moving situation like we're seeing is not clear to anyone. Regardless if they're using all caps and repeating what they just heard on a talk show.

If we don't overwelm the health care facilities, I agree that under 1% is reasonable. We are going to see the number of cases skyrocket as additional testing is done which will push the numbers down some. Unfortunately, the death toll is going to skyrocket as well.

(03-23-2020 11:46 AM)Gilesfan Wrote: [ -> ]

(03-23-2020 11:42 AM)mturn017 Wrote: [ -> ]

(03-23-2020 08:59 AM)EverRespect Wrote: [ -> ]

WHO'S TROLLING?

LOL, well if a sex therapist and a former reality TV star say so.

WTF has happened to this country?

Lol, I didn't even look her up. I thought she was a real doctor.

Well, I assume she really does have a PhD but you don't even need to be licensed to practice sex therapy. Anyone that says "We the people are smart enough to keep away from others if we know that we are sick or they are sick" is an idiot that hasn't paid attention to anything regarding this pandemic and should be ignored. But Trump likes his ass kissed so....

When Trump reopens the US to business, if you are scared, I suggest you continue to "shelter in place". Nothing is stopping you from doing that. But you don't get to make that decision for everyone else.

(03-23-2020 11:56 AM)EverRespect Wrote: [ -> ]When Trump reopens the US to business, if you are scared, I suggest you continue to "shelter in place". Nothing is stopping you from doing that. But you don't get to make that decision for everyone else.

Trump hasn't done much and will continue to not do much. It's been the states that have taken the lead and will continue to do so. He can can continue to show his impotence and call people names and flip flop daily on positions based on what he watched on TV like he has been doing until November for all I care.

(03-23-2020 11:14 AM)Gilesfan Wrote: [ -> ]

(03-23-2020 10:56 AM)Monarchblue Wrote: [ -> ]

(03-23-2020 10:24 AM)Gilesfan Wrote: [ -> ]What has Netherlands done that is much different than what we are doing? I just went through their list and it looks remarkably similar to what we are doing right now.

I understand the economy is going to be in bad shape if the country were shut down for 2 months...Im thinking it will be more like 4-6 weeks with slowly moving back to normal. I also know that I don't want a bunch of friends and family dying because we can't stay home for 4 weeks either. I care more about them than I do my 5 bedroom house. And a huge part of the problem is we still have people ignoring the advice and running around town like nothing is happening.

The next 2-6 weeks are going to be critical. We are just now approaching the time period were the number of cases go from 0 to 100 in growth. This is just the start of things. We were already slow to implement policies to combat the virus, if we rush through the process that will make things even worse. Go look through videos of Italian hospitals...and unfortunately its not just older people. The economy is going to tank no matter what we do...whether we try to run things like normal and have hundreds of thousands die or if we shut **** down.

The economy has always recovered from catastrophes. It recovered from 9/11, it recovered from 2008, it will recover from COVID-19, that is 100% clear. We have a long track record of the economy recovering. What we don't need is a bunch of business people rushing the process bc they can't afford to survive for 6 weeks at home.

The role of the president and policy makers is to keep their people safe. People of all ages. I personally care about old people. That is goal number 1.

This is not 9/11 or 2008. This is a total shutdown of the entire economy. Millions of jobs have already been lost and many million more will be lost. I am almost willing to guarantee that more live will be lost by continuing down this road, than will be saved.

We have hundreds of years worth of data to show that the economy always rebuilds. Its not like this one will be different.

Of course it will rebuild, but after how long, after how much destruction, and to what level of suffering, death, and increased crime is the question. Those questions must be weighed against the potential saved lives. This is not a question that can be answered with "I'll be fine. It's just money." For millions of people in this country, they will not be fine.

(03-23-2020 12:19 PM)Monarchblue Wrote: [ -> ]

(03-23-2020 11:14 AM)Gilesfan Wrote: [ -> ]

(03-23-2020 10:56 AM)Monarchblue Wrote: [ -> ]

(03-23-2020 10:24 AM)Gilesfan Wrote: [ -> ]What has Netherlands done that is much different than what we are doing? I just went through their list and it looks remarkably similar to what we are doing right now.

I understand the economy is going to be in bad shape if the country were shut down for 2 months...Im thinking it will be more like 4-6 weeks with slowly moving back to normal. I also know that I don't want a bunch of friends and family dying because we can't stay home for 4 weeks either. I care more about them than I do my 5 bedroom house. And a huge part of the problem is we still have people ignoring the advice and running around town like nothing is happening.

The next 2-6 weeks are going to be critical. We are just now approaching the time period were the number of cases go from 0 to 100 in growth. This is just the start of things. We were already slow to implement policies to combat the virus, if we rush through the process that will make things even worse. Go look through videos of Italian hospitals...and unfortunately its not just older people. The economy is going to tank no matter what we do...whether we try to run things like normal and have hundreds of thousands die or if we shut **** down.

The economy has always recovered from catastrophes. It recovered from 9/11, it recovered from 2008, it will recover from COVID-19, that is 100% clear. We have a long track record of the economy recovering. What we don't need is a bunch of business people rushing the process bc they can't afford to survive for 6 weeks at home.

The role of the president and policy makers is to keep their people safe. People of all ages. I personally care about old people. That is goal number 1.

This is not 9/11 or 2008. This is a total shutdown of the entire economy. Millions of jobs have already been lost and many million more will be lost. I am almost willing to guarantee that more live will be lost by continuing down this road, than will be saved.

We have hundreds of years worth of data to show that the economy always rebuilds. Its not like this one will be different.

Of course it will rebuild, but after how long, after how much destruction, and to what level of suffering, death, and increased crime is the question. Those questions must be weighed against the potential saved lives. This is not a question that can be answered with "I'll be fine. It's just money." For millions of people in this country, they will not be fine.

Interest rates are insanely low, landlords are forgiving rent, there are stimulus packages that are reportedly going to be offered, etc. It takes longer than 4-6 weeks to cause the time of harm you seem to be implying. Hell, thats not even a time period where banks would foreclose.