Anyone want to bet? Over/Under 1M?
(03-18-2020 08:55 AM)EverRespect Wrote: [ -> ]Anyone want to bet? Over/Under 1M?
Wouldn't the under just prove that all this social distancing worked?
(03-18-2020 09:09 AM)ODUDrunkard13 Wrote: [ -> ] (03-18-2020 08:55 AM)EverRespect Wrote: [ -> ]Anyone want to bet? Over/Under 1M?
Wouldn't the under just prove that all this social distancing worked?
No, the report says 1M deaths anyway. Over 2M if we do nothing. It is fear mongering garbage. No evidence any of these ridiculous numbers will verify. Chinese deaths in the low thousands. Iran deaths in the high hundreds. Both places have peaked, both have trash healthcare, and China is much more densely populated than we are. Lying to cause panic is probably worse than taking it lightly. I'd be glad to bet.
Giles, how about if more than 1M deaths as this study says, I will go away for good? Less than 1M and you go away for good? Sound like a plan? I'm sure this study used advanced statistics.
(03-18-2020 09:16 AM)EverRespect Wrote: [ -> ] (03-18-2020 09:09 AM)ODUDrunkard13 Wrote: [ -> ] (03-18-2020 08:55 AM)EverRespect Wrote: [ -> ]Anyone want to bet? Over/Under 1M?
Wouldn't the under just prove that all this social distancing worked?
No, the report says 1M deaths anyway. Over 2M if we do nothing. It is fear mongering garbage. No evidence any of these ridiculous numbers will verify. Chinese deaths in the low thousands. Iran deaths in the high hundreds. Both places have peaked, both have trash healthcare, and China is much more densely populated than we are. Lying to cause panic is probably worse than taking it lightly. I'd be glad to bet.
Giles, how about if more than 1M deaths as this study says, I will go away for good? Less than 1M and you go away for good? Sound like a plan? I'm sure this study used advanced statistics.
Figured you were talking cases. I don't expect to see anywhere close to that number of either cases or deaths. And while these numbers seem grossly exaggerated, I'm glad we've taken precautions to limit the impacts on our senior citizens.
I see the videos of the students on spring break in Florida, thousands in groups. After the break, they can't go back to school, so here they come back into their parents and grandparents homes. I think we'll see a spike from this.
(03-18-2020 09:16 AM)EverRespect Wrote: [ -> ] (03-18-2020 09:09 AM)ODUDrunkard13 Wrote: [ -> ] (03-18-2020 08:55 AM)EverRespect Wrote: [ -> ]Anyone want to bet? Over/Under 1M?
Wouldn't the under just prove that all this social distancing worked?
No, the report says 1M deaths anyway. Over 2M if we do nothing. It is fear mongering garbage. No evidence any of these ridiculous numbers will verify. Chinese deaths in the low thousands. Iran deaths in the high hundreds. Both places have peaked, both have trash healthcare, and China is much more densely populated than we are. Lying to cause panic is probably worse than taking it lightly. I'd be glad to bet.
Giles, how about if more than 1M deaths as this study says, I will go away for good? Less than 1M and you go away for good? Sound like a plan? I'm sure this study used advanced statistics.
Can there be a different bet? I would prefer that neither of you go away forever.
(03-18-2020 09:20 AM)ODUDrunkard13 Wrote: [ -> ] (03-18-2020 09:16 AM)EverRespect Wrote: [ -> ] (03-18-2020 09:09 AM)ODUDrunkard13 Wrote: [ -> ] (03-18-2020 08:55 AM)EverRespect Wrote: [ -> ]Anyone want to bet? Over/Under 1M?
Wouldn't the under just prove that all this social distancing worked?
No, the report says 1M deaths anyway. Over 2M if we do nothing. It is fear mongering garbage. No evidence any of these ridiculous numbers will verify. Chinese deaths in the low thousands. Iran deaths in the high hundreds. Both places have peaked, both have trash healthcare, and China is much more densely populated than we are. Lying to cause panic is probably worse than taking it lightly. I'd be glad to bet.
Giles, how about if more than 1M deaths as this study says, I will go away for good? Less than 1M and you go away for good? Sound like a plan? I'm sure this study used advanced statistics.
Figured you were talking cases. I don't expect to see anywhere close to that number of either cases or deaths. And while these numbers seem grossly exaggerated, I'm glad we've taken precautions to limit the impacts on our senior citizens.
I do think there are real questions that need to be raised in terms of how far we let the economy crash in order to mitigate the effects. This cannot drag on for months.
(03-18-2020 09:16 AM)EverRespect Wrote: [ -> ] (03-18-2020 09:09 AM)ODUDrunkard13 Wrote: [ -> ] (03-18-2020 08:55 AM)EverRespect Wrote: [ -> ]Anyone want to bet? Over/Under 1M?
Wouldn't the under just prove that all this social distancing worked?
No, the report says 1M deaths anyway. Over 2M if we do nothing. It is fear mongering garbage. No evidence any of these ridiculous numbers will verify. Chinese deaths in the low thousands. Iran deaths in the high hundreds. Both places have peaked, both have trash healthcare, and China is much more densely populated than we are. Lying to cause panic is probably worse than taking it lightly. I'd be glad to bet.
Giles, how about if more than 1M deaths as this study says, I will go away for good? Less than 1M and you go away for good? Sound like a plan? I'm sure this study used advanced statistics.
The 1.1 -1.2 million estimate was if only small social distancing measures were taken.
This wouldn't make sense because they we are in the middle of doing the extreme social distancing measures that were outlined in the study (like SF locked down for 3 weeks). They did not give a prediction to the number of cases they expect to have in the U.S., but believe the severe measures could decrease the number of deaths from 260,000 to under 20,000 in Britain.
They have not outlined the expectation for the U.S. but if you use that ratio, it would mean around 90,000 deaths in the U.S. In other words the extreme measures we are taking could save between a million lives. Of course, we haven't quite gotten to the level of extreme measures but its coming at some point in the next few weeks, Im sure.
And we aren't talking about the number of deaths this summer, this thing is going to stick around until a vaccine is proven to work.
But, you know, let's not listen to experts. Lets listen to someone that makes stuff up on a message board.
(03-18-2020 11:14 AM)Gilesfan Wrote: [ -> ] (03-18-2020 09:16 AM)EverRespect Wrote: [ -> ] (03-18-2020 09:09 AM)ODUDrunkard13 Wrote: [ -> ] (03-18-2020 08:55 AM)EverRespect Wrote: [ -> ]Anyone want to bet? Over/Under 1M?
Wouldn't the under just prove that all this social distancing worked?
No, the report says 1M deaths anyway. Over 2M if we do nothing. It is fear mongering garbage. No evidence any of these ridiculous numbers will verify. Chinese deaths in the low thousands. Iran deaths in the high hundreds. Both places have peaked, both have trash healthcare, and China is much more densely populated than we are. Lying to cause panic is probably worse than taking it lightly. I'd be glad to bet.
Giles, how about if more than 1M deaths as this study says, I will go away for good? Less than 1M and you go away for good? Sound like a plan? I'm sure this study used advanced statistics.
The 1.1 -1.2 million estimate was if only small social distancing measures were taken.
This wouldn't make sense because they we are in the middle of doing the extreme social distancing measures that were outlined in the study (like SF locked down for 3 weeks). They did not give a prediction to the number of cases they expect to have in the U.S., but believe the severe measures could decrease the number of deaths from 260,000 to under 20,000.
They have not outlined the expectation for the U.S. but if you use that ratio, it would mean around 90,000 deaths in the U.S. In other words the extreme measures we are taking could save between a million lives. Of course, we haven't quite gotten to the level of extreme measures but its coming at some point in the next few weeks, Im sure.
And we aren't talking about the number of deaths this summer, this thing is going to stick around until a vaccine is proven to work.
But, you know, let's not listen to experts. Lets listen to someone that makes stuff up on a message board.
There are experts with different opinions. Just because people are not buying 100% into the experts you choose to listen to, it does not mean that they are not considering expert opinion.
(03-18-2020 10:49 AM)Monarchblue Wrote: [ -> ] (03-18-2020 09:16 AM)EverRespect Wrote: [ -> ] (03-18-2020 09:09 AM)ODUDrunkard13 Wrote: [ -> ] (03-18-2020 08:55 AM)EverRespect Wrote: [ -> ]Anyone want to bet? Over/Under 1M?
Wouldn't the under just prove that all this social distancing worked?
No, the report says 1M deaths anyway. Over 2M if we do nothing. It is fear mongering garbage. No evidence any of these ridiculous numbers will verify. Chinese deaths in the low thousands. Iran deaths in the high hundreds. Both places have peaked, both have trash healthcare, and China is much more densely populated than we are. Lying to cause panic is probably worse than taking it lightly. I'd be glad to bet.
Giles, how about if more than 1M deaths as this study says, I will go away for good? Less than 1M and you go away for good? Sound like a plan? I'm sure this study used advanced statistics.
Can there be a different bet? I would prefer that neither of you go away forever.
I dunno, this might be win-win for the rest of us if it lands exactly at 1MM and both are banished.
(03-18-2020 11:18 AM)Monarchblue Wrote: [ -> ] (03-18-2020 11:14 AM)Gilesfan Wrote: [ -> ] (03-18-2020 09:16 AM)EverRespect Wrote: [ -> ] (03-18-2020 09:09 AM)ODUDrunkard13 Wrote: [ -> ] (03-18-2020 08:55 AM)EverRespect Wrote: [ -> ]Anyone want to bet? Over/Under 1M?
Wouldn't the under just prove that all this social distancing worked?
No, the report says 1M deaths anyway. Over 2M if we do nothing. It is fear mongering garbage. No evidence any of these ridiculous numbers will verify. Chinese deaths in the low thousands. Iran deaths in the high hundreds. Both places have peaked, both have trash healthcare, and China is much more densely populated than we are. Lying to cause panic is probably worse than taking it lightly. I'd be glad to bet.
Giles, how about if more than 1M deaths as this study says, I will go away for good? Less than 1M and you go away for good? Sound like a plan? I'm sure this study used advanced statistics.
The 1.1 -1.2 million estimate was if only small social distancing measures were taken.
This wouldn't make sense because they we are in the middle of doing the extreme social distancing measures that were outlined in the study (like SF locked down for 3 weeks). They did not give a prediction to the number of cases they expect to have in the U.S., but believe the severe measures could decrease the number of deaths from 260,000 to under 20,000.
They have not outlined the expectation for the U.S. but if you use that ratio, it would mean around 90,000 deaths in the U.S. In other words the extreme measures we are taking could save between a million lives. Of course, we haven't quite gotten to the level of extreme measures but its coming at some point in the next few weeks, Im sure.
And we aren't talking about the number of deaths this summer, this thing is going to stick around until a vaccine is proven to work.
But, you know, let's not listen to experts. Lets listen to someone that makes stuff up on a message board.
There are experts with different opinions. Just because people are not buying 100% into the experts you choose to listen to, it does not mean that they are not considering expert opinion.
Which experts are downplaying this?
(03-18-2020 11:19 AM)Grommet Wrote: [ -> ] (03-18-2020 10:49 AM)Monarchblue Wrote: [ -> ] (03-18-2020 09:16 AM)EverRespect Wrote: [ -> ] (03-18-2020 09:09 AM)ODUDrunkard13 Wrote: [ -> ] (03-18-2020 08:55 AM)EverRespect Wrote: [ -> ]Anyone want to bet? Over/Under 1M?
Wouldn't the under just prove that all this social distancing worked?
No, the report says 1M deaths anyway. Over 2M if we do nothing. It is fear mongering garbage. No evidence any of these ridiculous numbers will verify. Chinese deaths in the low thousands. Iran deaths in the high hundreds. Both places have peaked, both have trash healthcare, and China is much more densely populated than we are. Lying to cause panic is probably worse than taking it lightly. I'd be glad to bet.
Giles, how about if more than 1M deaths as this study says, I will go away for good? Less than 1M and you go away for good? Sound like a plan? I'm sure this study used advanced statistics.
Can there be a different bet? I would prefer that neither of you go away forever.
I dunno, this might be win-win for the rest of us if it lands exactly at 1MM and both are banished.
LOL. Win/Win
But, maybe I will come back under different names like a couple on here.
(03-18-2020 11:23 AM)Gilesfan Wrote: [ -> ] (03-18-2020 11:19 AM)Grommet Wrote: [ -> ] (03-18-2020 10:49 AM)Monarchblue Wrote: [ -> ] (03-18-2020 09:16 AM)EverRespect Wrote: [ -> ] (03-18-2020 09:09 AM)ODUDrunkard13 Wrote: [ -> ]Wouldn't the under just prove that all this social distancing worked?
No, the report says 1M deaths anyway. Over 2M if we do nothing. It is fear mongering garbage. No evidence any of these ridiculous numbers will verify. Chinese deaths in the low thousands. Iran deaths in the high hundreds. Both places have peaked, both have trash healthcare, and China is much more densely populated than we are. Lying to cause panic is probably worse than taking it lightly. I'd be glad to bet.
Giles, how about if more than 1M deaths as this study says, I will go away for good? Less than 1M and you go away for good? Sound like a plan? I'm sure this study used advanced statistics.
Can there be a different bet? I would prefer that neither of you go away forever.
I dunno, this might be win-win for the rest of us if it lands exactly at 1MM and both are banished.
LOL. Win/Win
But, maybe I will come back under different names like a couple on here.
Step up the wager to an IP ban.
(03-18-2020 11:25 AM)ODUDrunkard13 Wrote: [ -> ] (03-18-2020 11:23 AM)Gilesfan Wrote: [ -> ] (03-18-2020 11:19 AM)Grommet Wrote: [ -> ] (03-18-2020 10:49 AM)Monarchblue Wrote: [ -> ] (03-18-2020 09:16 AM)EverRespect Wrote: [ -> ]No, the report says 1M deaths anyway. Over 2M if we do nothing. It is fear mongering garbage. No evidence any of these ridiculous numbers will verify. Chinese deaths in the low thousands. Iran deaths in the high hundreds. Both places have peaked, both have trash healthcare, and China is much more densely populated than we are. Lying to cause panic is probably worse than taking it lightly. I'd be glad to bet.
Giles, how about if more than 1M deaths as this study says, I will go away for good? Less than 1M and you go away for good? Sound like a plan? I'm sure this study used advanced statistics.
Can there be a different bet? I would prefer that neither of you go away forever.
I dunno, this might be win-win for the rest of us if it lands exactly at 1MM and both are banished.
LOL. Win/Win
But, maybe I will come back under different names like a couple on here.
Step up the wager to an IP ban.
Only for the ODU board. I reserve the right to keep posting in the Spin Room.
Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk
(03-18-2020 11:50 AM)EverRespect Wrote: [ -> ] (03-18-2020 11:25 AM)ODUDrunkard13 Wrote: [ -> ] (03-18-2020 11:23 AM)Gilesfan Wrote: [ -> ] (03-18-2020 11:19 AM)Grommet Wrote: [ -> ] (03-18-2020 10:49 AM)Monarchblue Wrote: [ -> ]Can there be a different bet? I would prefer that neither of you go away forever.
I dunno, this might be win-win for the rest of us if it lands exactly at 1MM and both are banished.
LOL. Win/Win
But, maybe I will come back under different names like a couple on here.
Step up the wager to an IP ban.
Only for the ODU board. I reserve the right to keep posting in the Spin Room.
Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk
With the standards to get tested so high, we will likely never know the real amount of cases or deaths.
But if y'all want to put your access to the ODU board on incomplete data, feel free.
(03-18-2020 11:22 AM)Gilesfan Wrote: [ -> ] (03-18-2020 11:18 AM)Monarchblue Wrote: [ -> ] (03-18-2020 11:14 AM)Gilesfan Wrote: [ -> ] (03-18-2020 09:16 AM)EverRespect Wrote: [ -> ] (03-18-2020 09:09 AM)ODUDrunkard13 Wrote: [ -> ]Wouldn't the under just prove that all this social distancing worked?
No, the report says 1M deaths anyway. Over 2M if we do nothing. It is fear mongering garbage. No evidence any of these ridiculous numbers will verify. Chinese deaths in the low thousands. Iran deaths in the high hundreds. Both places have peaked, both have trash healthcare, and China is much more densely populated than we are. Lying to cause panic is probably worse than taking it lightly. I'd be glad to bet.
Giles, how about if more than 1M deaths as this study says, I will go away for good? Less than 1M and you go away for good? Sound like a plan? I'm sure this study used advanced statistics.
The 1.1 -1.2 million estimate was if only small social distancing measures were taken.
This wouldn't make sense because they we are in the middle of doing the extreme social distancing measures that were outlined in the study (like SF locked down for 3 weeks). They did not give a prediction to the number of cases they expect to have in the U.S., but believe the severe measures could decrease the number of deaths from 260,000 to under 20,000.
They have not outlined the expectation for the U.S. but if you use that ratio, it would mean around 90,000 deaths in the U.S. In other words the extreme measures we are taking could save between a million lives. Of course, we haven't quite gotten to the level of extreme measures but its coming at some point in the next few weeks, Im sure.
And we aren't talking about the number of deaths this summer, this thing is going to stick around until a vaccine is proven to work.
But, you know, let's not listen to experts. Lets listen to someone that makes stuff up on a message board.
There are experts with different opinions. Just because people are not buying 100% into the experts you choose to listen to, it does not mean that they are not considering expert opinion.
Which experts are downplaying this?
There are experts who believe the actual mortality rate is between .2% and .4% and that the infection rate would be more like 20% than the 80% mentioned in this thread.
Ohio's lead medical professional believes there are over 100k already infected in Ohio. Many others believe the number of infected is very high. If that is true, and we have 150 deaths so far, then the mortality rate is very low.
I don't know who is right. I tend to believe based on reading a lot of different takes that the mortality rate would end up at about 5 times that of the flu, and the infection rate is similar.
Sent from my Pixel 3 XL using Tapatalk
Yes, most experts I have read believe the fatality rate will be around 1% when all is said and done. I also believe, like most that there are many more out there that have the virus (or immune to it).
There are 327 million people in the U.S. The range I've read for infections (considering some measures taken) is 40%-70%. Lets just use 25%. Lets use a mortality rate of .75%....that is still 400k people. That is what, 10x the number of flu deaths per year?
I haven't read anyone said they believed the mortality rate would be .2 to .4 but I would love to do so.
(03-18-2020 02:38 PM)Gilesfan Wrote: [ -> ]Yes, most experts I have read believe the fatality rate will be around 1% when all is said and done. I also believe, like most that there are many more out there that have the virus (or immune to it).
There are 327 million people in the U.S. The range I've read for infections (considering some measures taken) is 40%-70%. Lets just use 25%. Lets use a mortality rate of .75%....that is still 400k people. That is what, 10x the number of flu deaths per year?
I haven't read anyone said they believed the mortality rate would be .2 to .4 but I would love to do so.
Germany is at a .23% mortality rate with over 12,000 confirmed cases.
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That is interesting to follow but they are very early into it. They are where Italy was about 2 weeks ago.
My opinion is that things are very fluid and no one can truly predict what is going to happen. At first, talk was younger people were much less at risk. Today that seems to have changed. One professor who was being interviewed on TV the other night had an interesting take on all of it. He predicted that in time EVERYONE would come down with the virus, the majority of people would survive, the elderly would die, and then everyone would be immune to it. It was like Darwinism on steroids.