(08-15-2019 03:40 PM)Brookes Owl Wrote: [ -> ] (08-15-2019 03:11 PM)stever20 Wrote: [ -> ]it's interesting- In Jaffe's chat today on Fangraphs some talk about Kershaw getting in the cy young race.... I think it's very realistic. One thing though that Jaffe said that I disagree with. He said that he'd have to pass both Ryu and Buehler.... Ryu I get. But Buehler? I get looking at the advanced metrics.... SOME. But not totally basing everything on the advanced metrics....
And if it did get to the end and Kershaw was close- I could easily see a real boost to Kershaw- a makeup almost in some voters minds from 2015 and 2016.
Yeah, it's not hard to see him in the race as a contender. It's pretty remarkable what the guy has done to stay sharp. His fastball usage is down like 30 points from where he was 4 or 5 yrs ago. But I agree that Ryu would be the guy he needs to pass. Kershaw might be Dodgers #3 right now (today's shaky start by Buehler notwithstanding), but Buehler did his Spring Training in April. That alone says no to the CY. And I agree that giving Kershaw a makeup might happen, but it might just come from a sentimental POV as well. That said, Ryu would have to really tail off and Kershaw would have to finish with basically no bad games AND Scherzer would have to regress as well - he's ahead of Kershaw right now with all that time out. Tall order.
It's funny- Kershaw has thrown more innings than Scherzer has right now. So if Scherzer came back and struggles at all- I think you could make a real case that it's Ryu 1 and Kershaw 2.
(08-15-2019 04:53 PM)dbackjon Wrote: [ -> ] (08-15-2019 03:43 PM)Brookes Owl Wrote: [ -> ]So Buehler's not having a terrible start, but - go figure - Dodgers are being no-hit through 4 by Caleb Smith. Prior to today he'd given up 12 ER in his last 16.2 IP.
*sigh*
The Curse of the Brookes Owl...
lol.... and followed up by Baez barfing on the situation....
(08-15-2019 04:53 PM)dbackjon Wrote: [ -> ] (08-15-2019 03:43 PM)Brookes Owl Wrote: [ -> ]So Buehler's not having a terrible start, but - go figure - Dodgers are being no-hit through 4 by Caleb Smith. Prior to today he'd given up 12 ER in his last 16.2 IP.
*sigh*
The Curse of the Brookes Owl...
Nailed that one didn't I?
(08-15-2019 04:58 PM)stever20 Wrote: [ -> ] (08-15-2019 04:53 PM)dbackjon Wrote: [ -> ] (08-15-2019 03:43 PM)Brookes Owl Wrote: [ -> ]So Buehler's not having a terrible start, but - go figure - Dodgers are being no-hit through 4 by Caleb Smith. Prior to today he'd given up 12 ER in his last 16.2 IP.
*sigh*
The Curse of the Brookes Owl...
lol.... and followed up by Baez barfing on the situation....
Baez just kills me. He's actually one of the better guys in LA's bullpen, and he's got amazing stuff, but he doesn't just make a little mistake here or there. When he ***** up, he ***** up HARD.
Whatever - blowouts happen. Move on...
ETA: Bellinger trying to make a game of it. Probably too little too late. Marlins bullpen is bad but I'm not sure how hard Roberts is trying to win this one.
ETA2: Jansen pitching bottom of 7, so not trying very hard.
(08-15-2019 04:17 PM)GoodOwl Wrote: [ -> ]When I hear Brookes complaining about the Dodgers, I laugh and think he'd never trade his for ours.
I get this is annoying to you but you do understand the context here, right? Totally different. Dodgers have been to two consecutive WS and come up short. 6 consecutive division championships. Everything I "whine" about is coming from the perspective of what it will take to win the WS.
I know '95 was heaven for Braves fans but what was it like in the late 90s/early 00s? My recollection is there was a lot of griping about how they should have won several more WS than 95. That is similar to what's going on in LA right now.
Right now these Dodgers are similar to not the Braves but rather IMO the Indians in the mid 90's or maybe even a better comp the early 90's Buffalo Bills.
A lot different griping when you haven't won one at least.
(08-15-2019 05:30 PM)Brookes Owl Wrote: [ -> ] (08-15-2019 04:58 PM)stever20 Wrote: [ -> ] (08-15-2019 04:53 PM)dbackjon Wrote: [ -> ] (08-15-2019 03:43 PM)Brookes Owl Wrote: [ -> ]So Buehler's not having a terrible start, but - go figure - Dodgers are being no-hit through 4 by Caleb Smith. Prior to today he'd given up 12 ER in his last 16.2 IP.
*sigh*
The Curse of the Brookes Owl...
lol.... and followed up by Baez barfing on the situation....
Baez just kills me. He's actually one of the better guys in LA's bullpen, and he's got amazing stuff, but he doesn't just make a little mistake here or there. When he ***** up, he ***** up HARD.
Whatever - blowouts happen. Move on...
ETA: Bellinger trying to make a game of it. Probably too little too late. Marlins bullpen is bad but I'm not sure how hard Roberts is trying to win this one.
ETA2: Jansen pitching bottom of 7, so not trying very hard.
the problem with today's bullpen game for the Dodgers was the guys that imploded- Baez, Chargois, and Ferguson- you're definitely counting on Baez- and the other 2 are guys that are definitely in the mix.
(08-15-2019 06:47 PM)stever20 Wrote: [ -> ] (08-15-2019 05:30 PM)Brookes Owl Wrote: [ -> ] (08-15-2019 04:58 PM)stever20 Wrote: [ -> ] (08-15-2019 04:53 PM)dbackjon Wrote: [ -> ] (08-15-2019 03:43 PM)Brookes Owl Wrote: [ -> ]So Buehler's not having a terrible start, but - go figure - Dodgers are being no-hit through 4 by Caleb Smith. Prior to today he'd given up 12 ER in his last 16.2 IP.
*sigh*
The Curse of the Brookes Owl...
lol.... and followed up by Baez barfing on the situation....
Baez just kills me. He's actually one of the better guys in LA's bullpen, and he's got amazing stuff, but he doesn't just make a little mistake here or there. When he ***** up, he ***** up HARD.
Whatever - blowouts happen. Move on...
ETA: Bellinger trying to make a game of it. Probably too little too late. Marlins bullpen is bad but I'm not sure how hard Roberts is trying to win this one.
ETA2: Jansen pitching bottom of 7, so not trying very hard.
the problem with today's bullpen game for the Dodgers was the guys that imploded- Baez, Chargois, and Ferguson- you're definitely counting on Baez- and the other 2 are guys that are definitely in the mix.
Zero chance Chargois will be on post season roster and near zero that Ferguson is on it. But yes - Baez is a lock.
(08-15-2019 06:44 PM)stever20 Wrote: [ -> ]Right now these Dodgers are similar to not the Braves but rather IMO the Indians in the mid 90's or maybe even a better comp the early 90's Buffalo Bills.
A lot different griping when you haven't won one at least.
I think it is somewhere in between. The Dodgers have a much more successful history than either the Indians or the bills so the expectation is a little different as well. But the main reason I used the braves as an example is because Good is a Braves fan and I assume he has a recollection of the mindset at the time in Atlanta.
(08-15-2019 07:06 PM)Brookes Owl Wrote: [ -> ] (08-15-2019 06:44 PM)stever20 Wrote: [ -> ]Right now these Dodgers are similar to not the Braves but rather IMO the Indians in the mid 90's or maybe even a better comp the early 90's Buffalo Bills.
A lot different griping when you haven't won one at least.
I think it is somewhere in between. The Dodgers have a much more successful history than either the Indians or the bills so the expectation is a little different as well. But the main reason I used the braves as an example is because Good is a Braves fan and I assume he has a recollection of the mindset at the time in Atlanta.
Dodgers though haven't won for so long that if they weren't to win a title with this group- it would be an unmitigated failure- very similar to the 90's Indians or Bills.
And yeah, it's remarkable how winning just 1 title changes the entire narrative. I'm reminded of the Blue Jays- up to '91 they were viewed one way. But when they won the title- a lot of those other failures were totally forgotten.
(08-15-2019 05:40 PM)Brookes Owl Wrote: [ -> ] (08-15-2019 04:17 PM)GoodOwl Wrote: [ -> ]When I hear Brookes complaining about the Dodgers, I laugh and think he'd never trade his for ours.
I get this is annoying to you but you do understand the context here, right? Totally different. Dodgers have been to two consecutive WS and come up short. 6 consecutive division championships. Everything I "whine" about is coming from the perspective of what it will take to win the WS.
I know '95 was heaven for Braves fans but what was it like in the late 90s/early 00s? My recollection is there was a lot of griping about how they should have won several more WS than 95. That is similar to what's going on in LA right now.
As I remember, there was more griping about how the Yankers stole our thunder. Everyone knew we had a great team. A lot of folks blamed Bobby Cox in that his loyalty to players during the season which helped build confidence and team unity, often hurt Braves in postseason when many accused him of leaving pitchers in too long. Hindsight always 20/20 but when you don't win people gripe.
I agree, your situation kind of mimics that, 'cept back then we always had suspect hitting.. Dodgers (and today's Braves, for that matter) have the hitting part down pretty good.
I'd also agree, and concede that the NL is right now the Dodgers' to lose. yes, there are a couple of teams with great rotations and anything can happen in a short playoff series, but this is their time right now. Won't be so much always, as other teams will likely get a bit better as Dodgers age a bit. I don't like it, but that's the way it is now. My frustration stems as much from how much farther we need to go to catch up to you, as to the bullpen/starting pitching issues. I think next year is really when Braves window starts. But we seem so close sometimes, it gets as you say annoying.
It should be fun this series with LA just to see how we compare. Small sample, but both teams have good pitchers lined up to start and the bullpens will just be what they are. I still would trade your BP group for ours most nights. Doubt you'd want to do the same. Therefore, you have less to whine about IMO.
Cubs say hey what about our bullpen? Yikes.
One thing with Kershaw- he's going to be really interesting with regards to bonuses....
he's got 21 starts right now. Got 3 to go before first 1 million option. Then 1 million every other start from then on to 30 starts... Got 7-8 starts left so would get up to 28-29 starts- or 3 million in bonuses there. And then 1.5 million if he got Cy Young or 500k if he finishes 2/3.
And have a feeling they can't do with Kershaw what they did with Maeda last year screwing him out of bonuses on starts. You figure 26 starts is probably his floor now so he'll get 2 million in bonuses. And top 3 in Cy Young seems very possible now.
Looks like Maeda is at 2.9 mil in bonuses himself right now. Needs 2 more starts to make 1.5 mil more and is sitting on 122.1 ip right now. so just 2 starts will get him up to 4.65 mil in bonuses... So looking probably at a floor of having 6.65 million in bonuses.. And could get even higher obviously.
looking- according to truebluela- they have with the current bonuses for Maeda have their payroll at 201,941,075. So just a tick over 4 million left to spend. Now Maeda seems likely for 1.75 million at least(2 starts, 7.2 innings), and Kershaw seems likely for 2 million(5 more starts). That would be 3.75 million. Going to get really interesting. What would absolutely suck for Dodger fans is if they were to go over the threshold by 1-2 million dollars. So not really benefitting by going over willingly, but still facing the cumulative penalties.
(08-15-2019 10:32 PM)stever20 Wrote: [ -> ]One thing with Kershaw- he's going to be really interesting with regards to bonuses
JFC man, it’s not going to be remotely interesting. There is NO one talking about the Dodgers and the tax threshold. Except you.
(08-15-2019 07:09 PM)stever20 Wrote: [ -> ] (08-15-2019 07:06 PM)Brookes Owl Wrote: [ -> ] (08-15-2019 06:44 PM)stever20 Wrote: [ -> ]Right now these Dodgers are similar to not the Braves but rather IMO the Indians in the mid 90's or maybe even a better comp the early 90's Buffalo Bills.
A lot different griping when you haven't won one at least.
I think it is somewhere in between. The Dodgers have a much more successful history than either the Indians or the bills so the expectation is a little different as well. But the main reason I used the braves as an example is because Good is a Braves fan and I assume he has a recollection of the mindset at the time in Atlanta.
Dodgers though haven't won for so long that if they weren't to win a title with this group- it would be an unmitigated failure- very similar to the 90's Indians or Bills.
Holy **** - it’s Annoy the **** Out of Brookes Night. You’re well actually-ing me with irrelevant details while missing the point.
Sorry but the Dodgers not winning would make them extremely similar to the 90's Indians/Bills and not the 90's Braves. At least the 90's Braves won something. The other 2 didn't win a title. What other Dodgers teams did 30+ years ago is meaningless to the discussion. The Dodgers have to win a World Series to get equal to the 90's Braves.
(08-15-2019 11:44 PM)stever20 Wrote: [ -> ]Sorry but the Dodgers not winning would make them extremely similar to the 90's Indians/Bills and not the 90's Braves. At least the 90's Braves won something. The other 2 didn't win a title. What other Dodgers teams did 30+ years ago is meaningless to the discussion. The Dodgers have to win a World Series to get equal to the 90's Braves.
Oh my gawd - what the **** are you doing? The discussion? You don’t even understand what the discussion is! Your opinion about the current Dodgers place in history has **** all to do with this conversation. I don’t give a **** how the Dodgers compare to the 90s Braves, and how you think they compare continues to miss the mother ******* point. I was giving Good some perspective on how Dodgers fans, writers, commentators, bloggers have come to feel entitled to a WS championship, and the angst here is somewhat comparable to complaints in the late 90s about a Braves team that was so good for so long and didn’t quite live up to expectations. The Bills are not a bad example, the Indians situatiion is too different, but neither of them are Good’s team - which I thought would be the best way to offer him some context.
(08-13-2019 07:50 AM)flyingswoosh Wrote: [ -> ] (08-12-2019 09:47 PM)stever20 Wrote: [ -> ]saw just like I predicted the Nats are going to be signing Greg Holland to a minor league deal.... Great move for them IMO- no harm in it and can really only help.
Same thing Giants fans said when we picked up Barraclough
well, Barraclough is done with Giants after a AAA 5 batter appearance where he didn't get an out and gave up 5 runs.
(08-16-2019 01:40 AM)Brookes Owl Wrote: [ -> ] (08-15-2019 11:44 PM)stever20 Wrote: [ -> ]Sorry but the Dodgers not winning would make them extremely similar to the 90's Indians/Bills and not the 90's Braves. At least the 90's Braves won something. The other 2 didn't win a title. What other Dodgers teams did 30+ years ago is meaningless to the discussion. The Dodgers have to win a World Series to get equal to the 90's Braves.
Oh my gawd - what the **** are you doing? The discussion? You don’t even understand what the discussion is! Your opinion about the current Dodgers place in history has **** all to do with this conversation. I don’t give a **** how the Dodgers compare to the 90s Braves, and how you think they compare continues to miss the mother ******* point. I was giving Good some perspective on how Dodgers fans, writers, commentators, bloggers have come to feel entitled to a WS championship, and the angst here is somewhat comparable to complaints in the late 90s about a Braves team that was so good for so long and didn’t quite live up to expectations. The Bills are not a bad example, the Indians situatiion is too different, but neither of them are Good’s team - which I thought would be the best way to offer him some context.
I would think it's even worse than you say due to not having won a title. The Braves winning in '95 put them more in a class with the late 80s A's quite frankly.... I think you WAY undersell the value of even just 1 title. Even just 1 title changes the conversation.
Even before they won the World Series in '95- they only had won the division in 91-93 and then the strike season in '94 where they were 2nd. Their run wasn't anywhere near as deep as what the Dodgers run is. It's why I think the Bills of the early 90s are the comp. Baseball- maybe the mid 50's Dodgers quite frankly a good comp.