(08-01-2019 08:30 AM)stever20 Wrote: [ -> ] (08-01-2019 08:26 AM)flyingswoosh Wrote: [ -> ] (07-31-2019 07:19 PM)Jjoey52 Wrote: [ -> ]I think Giants are big loser. They are going to regret seeing Smith and Mad Bum walk away.
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We came away with a bunch of prospect depth and didn't give away much of anything. Also, got the Braves to take on the remaining $18 million on Melancon's contract. And they're still in position to make the postseason. They'll slap a QO on Bumgarner and hopefully get a draft pick. Although he could have a tough time finding a suitor, with Cole available, and Strasburg likely opting out. As for Smith, it's a bit of a tough situation in that the QO might be too rich of a deal to risk offering to him.
i think there's an above average chance that Madbum resigns with the Giants....
Thought the Giants did really well. Kind of got the best of both worlds IMO. And the Braves taking on all of Melancon? Maybe it's Zaidi that was the one who did the fairy dust getting teams to make some dumb ass trades.
There's certainly a good chance. Although he'd be insane to give them a hometown discount after spending many years on a deeply discounted deal.
(08-01-2019 08:29 AM)flyingswoosh Wrote: [ -> ] (07-31-2019 05:11 PM)stever20 Wrote: [ -> ]I think in October bullpens matter far more than you want to think. Starters don't get a long leash at all. And the Dodgers could easily be looking at the Nats or Cubs in the LDS- best of 5. That's tough.
Yeah, after the Nats have had to blow either Scherzer or Strasburg in game 1, while the Dodgers will be fully rested. The Nats are the big losers here, not the Dodgers.
Nats still can throw in the LDS Strasburg, Corbin, Scherzer, Sanchez, and Strasburg(assuming Scherzer starts in the WC game). If there was no wild card game- Would get Scherzer, Strasburg, Corbin, Sanchez, and Scherzer. Top 2 guys still going 3 times. What's the difference exactly?
I should add that Melancon is a good pickup for the Braves. He's looked great lately. In his last 7 appearances since giving up a run, he's gone 8.2 innings with 9 Ks, 1 BB, 2 hits and 0 runs.
Why give up a prospect, when you can just spend money?
(08-01-2019 08:33 AM)stever20 Wrote: [ -> ] (08-01-2019 08:29 AM)flyingswoosh Wrote: [ -> ] (07-31-2019 05:11 PM)stever20 Wrote: [ -> ]I think in October bullpens matter far more than you want to think. Starters don't get a long leash at all. And the Dodgers could easily be looking at the Nats or Cubs in the LDS- best of 5. That's tough.
Yeah, after the Nats have had to blow either Scherzer or Strasburg in game 1, while the Dodgers will be fully rested. The Nats are the big losers here, not the Dodgers.
Nats still can throw in the LDS Strasburg, Corbin, Scherzer, Sanchez, and Strasburg(assuming Scherzer starts in the WC game). If there was no wild card game- Would get Scherzer, Strasburg, Corbin, Sanchez, and Scherzer. Top 2 guys still going 3 times. What's the difference exactly?
The difference is he's Scherzer and is the best pitcher in baseball. Strasburg is great, but nobody is on Scherzer's level. Dodgers will also be fully rested, including the pen, allowing them to use May, Maeda, etc. Obviously the Nats are the team the Dodgers would least want to see, but WC teams are at a massive disadvantage. Hell, first they need to actually win that game. You wanna talk high variance? Nothing is higher variance than one game. And the Nats still didn't do much of anything about their pen. Daniel Hudson was the best addition. Gimme a break.
(08-01-2019 08:36 AM)flyingswoosh Wrote: [ -> ] (08-01-2019 08:33 AM)stever20 Wrote: [ -> ] (08-01-2019 08:29 AM)flyingswoosh Wrote: [ -> ] (07-31-2019 05:11 PM)stever20 Wrote: [ -> ]I think in October bullpens matter far more than you want to think. Starters don't get a long leash at all. And the Dodgers could easily be looking at the Nats or Cubs in the LDS- best of 5. That's tough.
Yeah, after the Nats have had to blow either Scherzer or Strasburg in game 1, while the Dodgers will be fully rested. The Nats are the big losers here, not the Dodgers.
Nats still can throw in the LDS Strasburg, Corbin, Scherzer, Sanchez, and Strasburg(assuming Scherzer starts in the WC game). If there was no wild card game- Would get Scherzer, Strasburg, Corbin, Sanchez, and Scherzer. Top 2 guys still going 3 times. What's the difference exactly?
The difference is he's Scherzer and is the best pitcher in baseball. Strasburg is great, but nobody is on Scherzer's level. Dodgers will also be fully rested, including the pen, allowing them to use May, Maeda, etc. Obviously the Nats are the team the Dodgers would least want to see, but WC teams are at a massive disadvantage. Hell, first they need to actually win that game. You wanna talk high variance? Nothing is higher variance than one game. And the Nats still didn't do much of anything about their pen. Daniel Hudson was the best addition. Gimme a break.
Strasburg is pretty damn close. And Scherzer in this would be able to be used in relief in game 5. Think about it. game 5- the Nats would have Strasburg to Scherzer to Doolittle. Strasburg's July is about as good of a month as you are ever going to see. He had more RBI than he had earned runs allowed.... The Nats would be the one team that would be impacted by far the least of having to play in a wild card situation.
Also, folks act like taking starters and putting them in the pen is so automatic. Sorry but it's not. Just look at Maeda last year as a great example.
(08-01-2019 12:44 AM)stever20 Wrote: [ -> ] (08-01-2019 12:33 AM)GoodOwl Wrote: [ -> ] (08-01-2019 12:26 AM)stever20 Wrote: [ -> ]so looking.... Nats on Friday start a pretty big 9 game road trip. 3 in Arizona, San Francisco, and Mets. looking at pitching- Nats will have to face Ray and Young with Arizona, then Samardzija and Madbum with the Giants, and then Stroman, Syndergaard, and deGrom with the Mets. 5 real good pitchers, and Young isn't bad either.
Tough road trip, no doubt, but ya'll's pitching is better.
looking at the matchups-
nats have 4 games where you would think they have the advantage. Both of Strasburg's starts(vs Young and Stroman), Corbin vs Kelly, and Sanchez vs Anderson.
opponent has 4 games where you would say the opponents have the advantage- Ray vs Ross, Samardzija vs Fedde, Madbum vs Ross, and deGrom vs Fedde. The 1 tossup IMO is Syndergaard vs Corbin- 2 pretty good starters there.
I feel like sometimes you and Brookes undervalue your starters. I understand how it can be when you have three aces and then more good ones to follow--we used to have that in the 90s. But Braves have basically no clue how they're going to win each game no matter who starts--their starters are extremely vulnerable nearly every game. I have to admit something, stever, I clench whenever the top of the Nats lineup faces us. Gives us fits each time through. No matter if we're up by one or several runs against you, as we just saw, you guys have our number. Now, yesterday's game could have (and probably should have) gone the other way. I'll take it, of course, but I realize how incredibly lucky we were that ya'll gifted us the game by going easy on us when you could have blow us out. Sure, we're up 6.5 at the moment. Do you really think that number isn't going to come way down again now. Your team has shown resilience despite your bullpen issues.
I'm not completely convinced at the momeht our bullpen additions aren't going to regress. And I hate the Melancon deal because we're paying him the full fare 18.5 million for just over a year! For a reliever who's not even "the guy." I can already hear Liberty media telling our GM: 'you already spent your offseason money in July.' We're still basically a small-market team because of our lousy out-of-market ownership. You guys have more freedom and flexibility to do whatever you want.
And the Dodgers have no reasons to complain--they can have or get anything they want at any time. Brookes whining on here is laughable--they have everything and didn't need anything--plus they brought up another stud guy for their bullpen in May. We can't seem to bring any pitcher up that is as good as promised--we have to go get other teams rentals. What happened to all our supposedly great young pitchers from the rebuild? Most aren't panning out, and we're starting to run out of them.
Dodgers--they're still the best team until someone beats them (and probably even after.) Braves will get to take a peek at the Dodgers in a few weeks for 3 games. Sure, I hope we can win one. I like our guys, just wish they'd play a lot better. I'm not sure we closed them gap enough, especially with all the lineup questions (you don;t think Duvall and Inciarte will cool down by then?) We couldn't even win 1 game--not on--against the KC Royals! At least ya'll split with Baltimore. Things are likely to heat up and get tight in NLeast.
(08-01-2019 08:34 AM)flyingswoosh Wrote: [ -> ]I should add that Melancon is a good pickup for the Braves. He's looked great lately. In his last 7 appearances since giving up a run, he's gone 8.2 innings with 9 Ks, 1 BB, 2 hits and 0 runs.
Why give up a prospect, when you can just spend money?
First, I agree, Giants walked their tightrope well here. They hurt the Braves more than you guys realize with that Melancon deal because of Braves ownership--Liberty Media. Watch this winter. Braves have a ton to do with free agents and expiring deals, and might regress besides their current mainstays getting better. The real winners next season may well be the Mets, who held onto a good rotation that will get healthy (I know, the Metz healthy, but it could happen.)
No new young vaunted pitchers of all the tons Braves have had have come up and stuck, other than Soroka, who's untested and a log-rem injury risk. Fried has been flaky--looked very good early, recent ERA over 5.00 Not gonna cut it. Was happy we went and got Keuchel, but now having buyer's remorse. He's a 4th starter level pitcher based on what he's done for us. And every story I read about him touts him as our No 1. He's no ace anymore. Soroka, a rookie, is our No 1, and that's not good. Need the lineup to hit a lot of home runs to compensate. Riley's likely going back to minors. Not good.
(08-01-2019 08:50 AM)stever20 Wrote: [ -> ] (08-01-2019 08:36 AM)flyingswoosh Wrote: [ -> ] (08-01-2019 08:33 AM)stever20 Wrote: [ -> ] (08-01-2019 08:29 AM)flyingswoosh Wrote: [ -> ] (07-31-2019 05:11 PM)stever20 Wrote: [ -> ]I think in October bullpens matter far more than you want to think. Starters don't get a long leash at all. And the Dodgers could easily be looking at the Nats or Cubs in the LDS- best of 5. That's tough.
Yeah, after the Nats have had to blow either Scherzer or Strasburg in game 1, while the Dodgers will be fully rested. The Nats are the big losers here, not the Dodgers.
Nats still can throw in the LDS Strasburg, Corbin, Scherzer, Sanchez, and Strasburg(assuming Scherzer starts in the WC game). If there was no wild card game- Would get Scherzer, Strasburg, Corbin, Sanchez, and Scherzer. Top 2 guys still going 3 times. What's the difference exactly?
The difference is he's Scherzer and is the best pitcher in baseball. Strasburg is great, but nobody is on Scherzer's level. Dodgers will also be fully rested, including the pen, allowing them to use May, Maeda, etc. Obviously the Nats are the team the Dodgers would least want to see, but WC teams are at a massive disadvantage. Hell, first they need to actually win that game. You wanna talk high variance? Nothing is higher variance than one game. And the Nats still didn't do much of anything about their pen. Daniel Hudson was the best addition. Gimme a break.
Strasburg is pretty damn close. And Scherzer in this would be able to be used in relief in game 5. Think about it. game 5- the Nats would have Strasburg to Scherzer to Doolittle. Strasburg's July is about as good of a month as you are ever going to see. He had more RBI than he had earned runs allowed.... The Nats would be the one team that would be impacted by far the least of having to play in a wild card situation.
Also, folks act like taking starters and putting them in the pen is so automatic. Sorry but it's not. Just look at Maeda last year as a great example.
Totally agree, but the WC game is no guarantee of anything. You're always severely handicapped if you have to play that game first, before facing a team like the Dodgers.
WC teams are 6-8 in the LDS since 2012 with the new format. what's funny is that WC teams were also 6-8 in the last 7 years of the old format as well. So the Wild Card game really hasn't handicapped the winner anywhere near as much as you would think.
(08-01-2019 11:42 AM)stever20 Wrote: [ -> ]WC teams are 6-8 in the LDS since 2012 with the new format. what's funny is that WC teams were also 6-8 in the last 7 years of the old format as well. So the Wild Card game really hasn't handicapped the winner anywhere near as much as you would think.
The handicap is that half of the wild card teams lose the wild card game.
(08-01-2019 08:31 AM)flyingswoosh Wrote: [ -> ] (07-31-2019 04:06 PM)Brookes Owl Wrote: [ -> ] (07-31-2019 03:14 PM)stever20 Wrote: [ -> ]and now the major one-
That's a monster move.
On the other hand, Dodgers wouldn't be all that unhappy to see him in the WS.
Umm I would be terrified. Verlander, Cole, Greinke, Miley, plus an absolutely frightening lineup and a very good pen. They're the easy favorite and will likely roll through the AL.
Look, I completely agree the Astros now have to be the runaway favorite for the WS. BUT, the last couple of years the Dodgers have been hitting Greinke pretty well even when they're not at LA. So I think they'd much rather see him than Verlander or Miley. (Cole hasn't done that great against the Dodgers but the last couple of years he's so much better than with Pirates I'm not sure the older stats are relevant. So probably him too.)
(08-01-2019 12:00 PM)Wedge Wrote: [ -> ] (08-01-2019 11:42 AM)stever20 Wrote: [ -> ]WC teams are 6-8 in the LDS since 2012 with the new format. what's funny is that WC teams were also 6-8 in the last 7 years of the old format as well. So the Wild Card game really hasn't handicapped the winner anywhere near as much as you would think.
The handicap is that half of the wild card teams lose the wild card game.
true, but it's not helping the #1 seed out anywhere near as much as I think swoosh would assume.
(08-01-2019 10:51 AM)GoodOwl Wrote: [ -> ]And the Dodgers have no reasons to complain--they can have or get anything they want at any time. Brookes whining on here is laughable--they have everything and didn't need anything--plus they brought up another stud guy for their bullpen in May. We can't seem to bring any pitcher up that is as good as promised--we have to go get other teams rentals. What happened to all our supposedly great young pitchers from the rebuild? Most aren't panning out, and we're starting to run out of them.
Dodgers--they're still the best team until someone beats them (and probably even after.) Braves will get to take a peek at the Dodgers in a few weeks for 3 games. Sure, I hope we can win one. I like our guys, just wish they'd play a lot better. I'm not sure we closed them gap enough, especially with all the lineup questions (you don;t think Duvall and Inciarte will cool down by then?) We couldn't even win 1 game--not on--against the KC Royals! At least ya'll split with Baltimore. Things are likely to heat up and get tight in NLeast.
I think whining is overstating it but your point is well taken. That said, I'm not alone. There are very few Dodgers fans, beat reporters, or other sports media types in LA who feel like the pen, and particularly the back end, is where it needs to be for the playoffs. Even Roberts has noted Jansen's problems on several occasions and Friedman acknowledged the team's desire to obtain bullpen support yesterday. Is it a DIRE need? No. Is it a need for a team who will consider anything short of a WS title a disappointment? Yes.
And the whole "best until someone beats them" trope is hollow when: 1) There are two leagues, and 2) We all know bullpens are much more critical in the post season.
(08-01-2019 12:01 PM)Brookes Owl Wrote: [ -> ] (08-01-2019 08:31 AM)flyingswoosh Wrote: [ -> ] (07-31-2019 04:06 PM)Brookes Owl Wrote: [ -> ] (07-31-2019 03:14 PM)stever20 Wrote: [ -> ]and now the major one-
That's a monster move.
On the other hand, Dodgers wouldn't be all that unhappy to see him in the WS.
Umm I would be terrified. Verlander, Cole, Greinke, Miley, plus an absolutely frightening lineup and a very good pen. They're the easy favorite and will likely roll through the AL.
Look, I completely agree the Astros now have to be the runaway favorite for the WS. BUT, the last couple of years the Dodgers have been hitting Greinke pretty well even when they're not at LA. So I think they'd much rather see him than Verlander or Miley. (Cole hasn't done that great against the Dodgers but the last couple of years he's so much better than with Pirates I'm not sure the older stats are relevant. So probably him too.)
What NL Rotation scares you the most to face in either Divisional Series or NLCS?
(08-01-2019 11:33 AM)flyingswoosh Wrote: [ -> ] (08-01-2019 11:04 AM)GoodOwl Wrote: [ -> ]First, I agree, Giants walked their tightrope well here. They hurt the Braves more than you guys realize with that Melancon deal because of Braves ownership--Liberty Media. Watch this winter. Braves have a ton to do with free agents and expiring deals, and might regress besides their current mainstays getting better. The real winners next season may well be the Mets, who held onto a good rotation that will get healthy (I know, the Metz healthy, but it could happen.)
No new young vaunted pitchers of all the tons Braves have had have come up and stuck, other than Soroka, who's untested and a log-rem injury risk. Fried has been flaky--looked very good early, recent ERA over 5.00 Not gonna cut it. Was happy we went and got Keuchel, but now having buyer's remorse. He's a 4th starter level pitcher based on what he's done for us. And every story I read about him touts him as our No 1. He's no ace anymore. Soroka, a rookie, is our No 1, and that's not good. Need the lineup to hit a lot of home runs to compensate. Riley's likely going back to minors. Not good.
No they're not
You don't like Syndergaard, DeGrohm, Strohman and possibly Wheeler (they decide to re-sign him)? Yes, Metz usually get injured, but occasionally they put it together. They're not that bad, or at least not as bad as you seem to think.
(08-01-2019 08:34 AM)flyingswoosh Wrote: [ -> ]Why give up a prospect, when you can just spend money?
Braves haven't liked spending above-average money since Ted Turner used to own the team. Melancon may well represent 50% or more of our offseason spending. We're not NY or the Dodgers (or even the Nats or Phillies). We have a budget, and don't like to spend too much money--Braves always looking for value deals first, which can hurt our competitiveness when we get good.)
(08-01-2019 12:29 PM)dbackjon Wrote: [ -> ]What NL Rotation scares you the most to face in either Divisional Series or NLCS?
My point is: which contender rotation scares you the least? We needed another starter and didn't get one. Maybe bullpen can survive, but likely not more than one series.
(08-01-2019 12:29 PM)dbackjon Wrote: [ -> ]What NL Rotation scares you the most to face in either Divisional Series or NLCS?
Scares me most: 1) Nats Starters 1a) Dodgers starters
Scares me least: 1) Braves 2) not even close.
(08-01-2019 12:29 PM)dbackjon Wrote: [ -> ] (08-01-2019 12:01 PM)Brookes Owl Wrote: [ -> ] (08-01-2019 08:31 AM)flyingswoosh Wrote: [ -> ] (07-31-2019 04:06 PM)Brookes Owl Wrote: [ -> ] (07-31-2019 03:14 PM)stever20 Wrote: [ -> ]and now the major one-
That's a monster move.
On the other hand, Dodgers wouldn't be all that unhappy to see him in the WS.
Umm I would be terrified. Verlander, Cole, Greinke, Miley, plus an absolutely frightening lineup and a very good pen. They're the easy favorite and will likely roll through the AL.
Look, I completely agree the Astros now have to be the runaway favorite for the WS. BUT, the last couple of years the Dodgers have been hitting Greinke pretty well even when they're not at LA. So I think they'd much rather see him than Verlander or Miley. (Cole hasn't done that great against the Dodgers but the last couple of years he's so much better than with Pirates I'm not sure the older stats are relevant. So probably him too.)
What NL Rotation scares you the most to face in either Divisional Series or NLCS?
The Nats starting rotation is horrifying. Dodgers don't do well against any of their big 3. Of course, nobody does but it seems like a particularly bad matchup for LA. Nobody else is even close.
(08-01-2019 01:22 PM)Brookes Owl Wrote: [ -> ] (08-01-2019 12:29 PM)dbackjon Wrote: [ -> ] (08-01-2019 12:01 PM)Brookes Owl Wrote: [ -> ] (08-01-2019 08:31 AM)flyingswoosh Wrote: [ -> ] (07-31-2019 04:06 PM)Brookes Owl Wrote: [ -> ]That's a monster move.
On the other hand, Dodgers wouldn't be all that unhappy to see him in the WS.
Umm I would be terrified. Verlander, Cole, Greinke, Miley, plus an absolutely frightening lineup and a very good pen. They're the easy favorite and will likely roll through the AL.
Look, I completely agree the Astros now have to be the runaway favorite for the WS. BUT, the last couple of years the Dodgers have been hitting Greinke pretty well even when they're not at LA. So I think they'd much rather see him than Verlander or Miley. (Cole hasn't done that great against the Dodgers but the last couple of years he's so much better than with Pirates I'm not sure the older stats are relevant. So probably him too.)
What NL Rotation scares you the most to face in either Divisional Series or NLCS?
The Nats starting rotation is horrifying. Dodgers don't do well against any of their big 3. Of course, nobody does but it seems like a particularly bad matchup for LA. Nobody else is even close.
And the thing is, it very possibly could be a best of 5. Where if Strasburg is on twice and Scherzer is on once, it's game over. You would much prefer to have to beat the Dodgers only 3 times rather than 4 times.