CSNbbs

Full Version: 2019 MLB Thread
You're currently viewing a stripped down version of our content. View the full version with proper formatting.
(09-22-2019 06:04 PM)nbcards Wrote: [ -> ]Cardinals heading back to the postseason for the first time since 2015. Finished the 4 game sweep at Wrigley and eliminating the Cubs from the division race.


The other teams played the so called soft teams too.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk
(09-23-2019 12:28 AM)Jjoey52 Wrote: [ -> ]
(09-22-2019 06:04 PM)nbcards Wrote: [ -> ]Cardinals heading back to the postseason for the first time since 2015. Finished the 4 game sweep at Wrigley and eliminating the Cubs from the division race.


The other teams played the so called soft teams too.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

Right, but the Brewers got lucky that they were where they were when Yelich went out, and with the soft part of the schedule remaining. Folks want to act like SOS is meaningless, and this should be absolute proof that it's not. When you are looking at a teams remaining season- you absolutely need to look at SOS.
(09-22-2019 07:19 PM)stever20 Wrote: [ -> ]
(09-22-2019 05:32 PM)flyingswoosh Wrote: [ -> ]Freaking brewers win again. Don't think I've ever been so wrong about a team. They've rallied without Yelich, and with today's Nats loss to the Marlins, the brewers find themselves in the top WC spot. Just an amazing story.

they got really lucky on the schedule IMO. what a time to have a really soft schedule...

Didn't the Nats just lose to the Marlins?
(09-23-2019 08:52 AM)flyingswoosh Wrote: [ -> ]
(09-22-2019 07:19 PM)stever20 Wrote: [ -> ]
(09-22-2019 05:32 PM)flyingswoosh Wrote: [ -> ]Freaking brewers win again. Don't think I've ever been so wrong about a team. They've rallied without Yelich, and with today's Nats loss to the Marlins, the brewers find themselves in the top WC spot. Just an amazing story.

they got really lucky on the schedule IMO. what a time to have a really soft schedule...

Didn't the Nats just lose to the Marlins?

Took 2 of 3 from them though....

Would rather get to see the Marlins than like the Cubs and the Cardinals...

Cubs this year for instance-
vs winning teams 37-44 74 win pace
vs losing teams 45-30 97 win pace

Nats this year
vs winning teams 40-48 74 win pace
vs losing teams 45-21 110 win pace

Brewers this year
vs winning teams 48-40 88 win pace
vs losing teams 38-30 91 win pace

very few teams do like the Brewers and are pretty close to the same vs winning and losing teams. Teams like the Cubs/Nats are much more typical.
do think the Brewers have gotten lucky here....

89 wRC+ since Yelich went out- but even with that are still scoring 5 runs per game. So putting a lot of hits together.
you do wonder if what the Brewers are doing this September if they'd be able to do this next year with the 28 man rosters. They are averaging using since Yelich left over 12 position players and 5 pitchers per game.
(09-23-2019 09:24 AM)stever20 Wrote: [ -> ]do think the Brewers have gotten lucky here....

89 wRC+ since Yelich went out- but even with that are still scoring 5 runs per game. So putting a lot of hits together.

Not really surprising
gotta love folks like Jay Jaffe who think the NL Cy Young race is still in doubt- with Scherzer having a shot at all....

Sorry guys, the Cy Young award isn't who the pitcher you most want out on the field. It's who had the best season.... There is nothing predictive about it.

I seriously question if Scherzer will even finish 2nd. Not with only 172-173 innings. That's a bridge way too far....
(09-23-2019 02:09 PM)stever20 Wrote: [ -> ]gotta love folks like Jay Jaffe who think the NL Cy Young race is still in doubt- with Scherzer having a shot at all....

Sorry guys, the Cy Young award isn't who the pitcher you most want out on the field. It's who had the best season.... There is nothing predictive about it.

I seriously question if Scherzer will even finish 2nd. Not with only 172-173 innings. That's a bridge way too far....

OK, I just read through the chat, saw your question as well as the earlier one about the Cy Young, and skimmed the articles/posts he linked. And I'm just not seeing the argument you're making (bolded). What I got from all that was, essentially, Scherzer had an incredible first half, including "...what might have been the best run of Scherzer’s career. Over a nine-start span that began on May 22, in a total of 64 innings, he allowed just six runs (all earned) while striking out 94 (38.5%) and walking just nine (3.7%) en route to a microscopic 0.84 ERA and 1.45 FIP. Only once in that stretch did he allow more than one run (two against the Diamondbacks on June 14). It was his longest streak of allowing two runs or fewer in his career, and with the lowest ERA and FIP of any streak approaching it..."

My interpretation is he's weighing whether an incredible first half outweighs a poorer second half, even though he's got metrics (e.g. WAR) that say he's *right there*. Look, I agree with you that deGrom ought to win and probably will but I don't think Jaffe is saying what you think he is and I believe what he's actually saying has some merit. I just don't expect most voters will agree with him.

All that said, Tom Tango says Scherzer is 3rd most likely on the Nats to win the Cy Young. Which is pretty remarkable.
What I think though is that while Scherzer and de Grom might have been tied as of the article- look at what they've done since then.....

de Grom 2-0 0.43 ERA 1 bb/28 k’s. 21 ip
Scherzer 1-2 4.58 ERA 4 bb/26 k’s 17.2 ip

A 9 start stretch doesn't make a whole season award.

Also, de Grom is ahead of Scherzer in both bWAR and fWAR.

Also sorry but not even having 175 innings is absolutely close to being a DQ for some voters(I think 180 is pushing it quite frankly). Scherzer beat Kershaw 2 years ago- largely because Kershaw only had 175 innings. I think when we see everything hashed out that we're going to see de Grom win. Scherzer IMO has a better shot of finishing outside the top 3 than he does of winning it.
(09-23-2019 04:30 PM)stever20 Wrote: [ -> ]What I think though is that while Scherzer and de Grom might have been tied as of the article- look at what they've done since then.....

de Grom 2-0 0.43 ERA 1 bb/28 k’s. 21 ip
Scherzer 1-2 4.58 ERA 4 bb/26 k’s 17.2 ip

A 9 start stretch doesn't make a whole season award.

Also, de Grom is ahead of Scherzer in both bWAR and fWAR.

Also sorry but not even having 175 innings is absolutely close to being a DQ for some voters(I think 180 is pushing it quite frankly). Scherzer beat Kershaw 2 years ago- largely because Kershaw only had 175 innings. I think when we see everything hashed out that we're going to see de Grom win. Scherzer IMO has a better shot of finishing outside the top 3 than he does of winning it.

Sure - these are all fine arguments. Except for the bolded - nobody said that of course. I think the point is that, if the two guys are essentially "too close to call" then you might use that stretch to give the edge to Scherzer.

Again, I agree with you that deGrom is the more deserving pitcher but for a writer who, for example, is a "3 true outcomes" guy, Scherzer isn't a bad pick assuming he can get over the lower IP (for the record, I doubt there are many writers who think that way - I'm just considering other ways this can be looked at that make deGrom a little less obvious choice.)
(09-23-2019 05:00 PM)Brookes Owl Wrote: [ -> ]
(09-23-2019 04:30 PM)stever20 Wrote: [ -> ]What I think though is that while Scherzer and de Grom might have been tied as of the article- look at what they've done since then.....

de Grom 2-0 0.43 ERA 1 bb/28 k’s. 21 ip
Scherzer 1-2 4.58 ERA 4 bb/26 k’s 17.2 ip

A 9 start stretch doesn't make a whole season award.

Also, de Grom is ahead of Scherzer in both bWAR and fWAR.

Also sorry but not even having 175 innings is absolutely close to being a DQ for some voters(I think 180 is pushing it quite frankly). Scherzer beat Kershaw 2 years ago- largely because Kershaw only had 175 innings. I think when we see everything hashed out that we're going to see de Grom win. Scherzer IMO has a better shot of finishing outside the top 3 than he does of winning it.

Sure - these are all fine arguments. Except for the bolded - nobody said that of course. I think the point is that, if the two guys are essentially "too close to call" then you might use that stretch to give the edge to Scherzer.

Again, I agree with you that deGrom is the more deserving pitcher but for a writer who, for example, is a "3 true outcomes" guy, Scherzer isn't a bad pick assuming he can get over the lower IP (for the record, I doubt there are many writers who think that way - I'm just considering other ways this can be looked at that make deGrom a little less obvious choice.)

but to call the race too close to call is deceiving as hell-it's akin to someone calling 2017 as too close to call between Kluber and Sale. Maybe he thinks it should be too close to call, but for 99% of Cy Young Voters, with the actual numbers- it's not.
Corbin with a great start tonight... He's going to be huge imo with the wild card game. Nats will have really all of their starters available in the pen in the wild card game(assuming Ross will start on Sunday).

Nats hold on and magic number is down to only 3.
(09-23-2019 08:45 PM)stever20 Wrote: [ -> ]Corbin with a great start tonight... He's going to be huge imo with the wild card game. Nats will have really all of their starters available in the pen in the wild card game(assuming Ross will start on Sunday).

Nats hold on and magic number is down to only 3.

At this point I don't think there's a point for either team to push for home field in the WC game. It's more important to have all of your pitchers rested and ready to go.
(09-24-2019 08:12 AM)flyingswoosh Wrote: [ -> ]
(09-23-2019 08:45 PM)stever20 Wrote: [ -> ]Corbin with a great start tonight... He's going to be huge imo with the wild card game. Nats will have really all of their starters available in the pen in the wild card game(assuming Ross will start on Sunday).

Nats hold on and magic number is down to only 3.

At this point I don't think there's a point for either team to push for home field in the WC game. It's more important to have all of your pitchers rested and ready to go.

well for the Nats they can really do both. They have Ross/Schezer pitching tonight, then Sanchez tomorrow and Strasburg on Thursday. Then after Voth on Friday(he's actually done pretty well- 3.35 ERA/4.15 FIP in 8 games/7 starts) got Corbin on Saturday. They'd have Sanchez, Strasburg totally rested- but then Corbin would be on a normal throwing day.

The interesting one are the Brewers. Their MO is the relievers of course. They play this week in 2 awful pitching parks in Cincy and Colorado.
do know 1 thing for sure.... The stretch the Brewers have been on has probably settled the MVP race in the NL to Bellinger...
(09-24-2019 08:56 AM)stever20 Wrote: [ -> ]do know 1 thing for sure.... The stretch the Brewers have been on has probably settled the MVP race in the NL to Bellinger...

I get what you're saying but IMO the Brewers' recent performance says a lot less about Yelich than it does about SOS (as you have pointed out) and small sample sizes. The metrics are still pretty close - in fact Yelich still leads by a bit in fWAR (bWAR not close though). Bellinger's first half was so dominating, and he's been trending a bit better over the last month or so, it seems like he's done enough to win it but I'd expect both Yelich and Rendon to get 1st place votes.
(03-08-2019 10:30 AM)flyingswoosh Wrote: [ -> ]AL East: Yankees
AL Central: Indians
AL West: Astros
WC: Rays/Red Sox (Sox win)
ALDS: Yankees over Sox
ALDS: Astros over Indians
ALCS: Yankees over Astros

NL East: Nationals
NL Central: Cardinals
NL West: Dodgers
WC: Rockies/Cubs
NLDS: Cubs over Cardinals
NLDS: Nats over Dodgers
NLCS: Nats over Cubs

World Series: Yankees over Nats

NL MVP: Max Scherzer (fWAR 6.8)
NL Cy Young: Scherzer

AL MVP: Mookie Betts (fWAR 9.1)
AL Cy Young: Trevor Bauer (fWAR 6.0)

Bottom 4 teams NL: Marlins, Reds, Padres, Giants
Bottom 4 teams AL: Orioles, Royals, Rangers, Tigers

Didn't do terribly in my predictions. Got 4 of the 6 division winners and maybe 1 of WC. My awards predictions were way off, but my bottom 4 in each league was pretty close.
(03-03-2019 12:30 PM)stever20 Wrote: [ -> ]With Harper finally signed and most everyone off the FA list(still waiting for Kimbrel and Keuchel to sign but still....) It's time to move to the season thread I feel. 1st games start up in 2 1/2 weeks...

Time for crazy predictions for the season...…

mine is that Harper takes to Philly very well and hits 50 homers. But they miss the playoffs due to a not so great pitching staff.

my playoff picks-
NL- Nats, Brewers, Dodgers win divisions Mets, Cubs wild cards. Nats win NL
AL- Yankees, Indians, Astros win divisions. A's, Red Sox wild cards. Yankees win AL

Yanks beat Nats 4-2 in World Series.

what says everyone else?

looking at mine. got 3 NL playoff teams(albeit with 2 divisions wrong). Got possibly 4 AL playoff teams.

Harper misses 50 homers- but still has had a pretty good year. But they're missing the playoffs.
(09-24-2019 02:05 PM)stever20 Wrote: [ -> ]
(03-03-2019 12:30 PM)stever20 Wrote: [ -> ]With Harper finally signed and most everyone off the FA list(still waiting for Kimbrel and Keuchel to sign but still....) It's time to move to the season thread I feel. 1st games start up in 2 1/2 weeks...

Time for crazy predictions for the season...…

mine is that Harper takes to Philly very well and hits 50 homers. But they miss the playoffs due to a not so great pitching staff.

my playoff picks-
NL- Nats, Brewers, Dodgers win divisions Mets, Cubs wild cards. Nats win NL
AL- Yankees, Indians, Astros win divisions. A's, Red Sox wild cards. Yankees win AL

Yanks beat Nats 4-2 in World Series.

what says everyone else?

looking at mine. got 3 NL playoff teams(albeit with 2 divisions wrong). Got possibly 4 AL playoff teams.

Harper misses 50 homers- but still has had a pretty good year. But they're missing the playoffs.

Your WC picks were pretty close. My Rockies pick was.....yeahhhh
Reference URL's