CSNbbs

(10-29-2019 01:45 PM)flyingswoosh Wrote: [ -> ]

(10-29-2019 01:23 PM)stever20 Wrote: [ -> ]wow for tonight-
Strasburg is pitching for the Nationals, he should be thrilled to see Holbrook. He has an 0.90 ERA in 40 regular-season innings with 43 strikeouts and seven walks with Holbrook behind the plate. Verlander’s ERA with Holbrook is 2.33, including two starts this season in which he allowed one run in 14 innings, with 17 strikeouts.

I'm gonna tally the bad calls for each team.

Brooks Baseball does it for you!

(10-28-2019 02:42 PM)Brookes Owl Wrote: [ -> ]We're spending a lot of energy talking about umpiring, but nobody is talking about luck. I'm not seeing a lot of advanced team metrics out there (for the WS) but baseballsavant is tracking expected batting average (xBA) among other things and here's what it looks like:

Game 1 (Nats 5, Astros 4)
Nats .286
Astros .263
Game 2 (Nats 12, Astros 3)
Nats .225
Astros .360
Game 3 (Astros 4, Nats 1)
Nats .211
Astros .318
Game 4 (Astros 8, Nats 1)
Nats .250
Astros .366

Game 2 is a massive outlier. This is why they play the games of course but these numbers are a good indicator that it was just a matter of time (repetitions) before Houston would start producing.

*crickets*

Nobody said anything about this but it's worth bumping with Strasburg going tonight. In his Game 2 start the Astros had an xBA of .360 - only a little bit lower than their Game 4 xBA - meaning he wasn't really fooling many batters. And Verlander, for all the "vulnerability" talk, allowed an xBA of only .225 - second lowest of the series so far. Luck is always part of the game so you can't rule it out but it's reasonable to think similar performances by these two pitchers could have drastically different results.

ETA: I'm overstating it. The Nats xBA was .225 but that's not just Verlander - it's all the pitchers in Game 2.

(10-29-2019 03:46 PM)Brookes Owl Wrote: [ -> ]

(10-28-2019 02:42 PM)Brookes Owl Wrote: [ -> ]We're spending a lot of energy talking about umpiring, but nobody is talking about luck. I'm not seeing a lot of advanced team metrics out there (for the WS) but baseballsavant is tracking expected batting average (xBA) among other things and here's what it looks like:

Game 1 (Nats 5, Astros 4)
Nats .286
Astros .263
Game 2 (Nats 12, Astros 3)
Nats .225
Astros .360
Game 3 (Astros 4, Nats 1)
Nats .211
Astros .318
Game 4 (Astros 8, Nats 1)
Nats .250
Astros .366

Game 2 is a massive outlier. This is why they play the games of course but these numbers are a good indicator that it was just a matter of time (repetitions) before Houston would start producing.

*crickets*

Nobody said anything about this but it's worth bumping with Strasburg going tonight. In his Game 2 start the Astros had an xBA of .360 - only a little bit lower than their Game 4 xBA - meaning he wasn't really fooling many batters. And Verlander, for all the "vulnerability" talk, allowed an xBA of only .225 - second lowest of the series so far. Luck is always part of the game so you can't rule it out but it's reasonable to think similar performances by these two pitchers could have drastically different results.

Somebody needs attention.

But seriously, this is a valid stat. We talk about Verlander having back to back bad starts, but 2 starts could easily be bad luck. It's why we don't evaluate pitchers after their first two starts of the season.

(10-29-2019 03:48 PM)flyingswoosh Wrote: [ -> ]

(10-29-2019 03:46 PM)Brookes Owl Wrote: [ -> ]

(10-28-2019 02:42 PM)Brookes Owl Wrote: [ -> ]We're spending a lot of energy talking about umpiring, but nobody is talking about luck. I'm not seeing a lot of advanced team metrics out there (for the WS) but baseballsavant is tracking expected batting average (xBA) among other things and here's what it looks like:

Game 1 (Nats 5, Astros 4)
Nats .286
Astros .263
Game 2 (Nats 12, Astros 3)
Nats .225
Astros .360
Game 3 (Astros 4, Nats 1)
Nats .211
Astros .318
Game 4 (Astros 8, Nats 1)
Nats .250
Astros .366

Game 2 is a massive outlier. This is why they play the games of course but these numbers are a good indicator that it was just a matter of time (repetitions) before Houston would start producing.

*crickets*

Nobody said anything about this but it's worth bumping with Strasburg going tonight. In his Game 2 start the Astros had an xBA of .360 - only a little bit lower than their Game 4 xBA - meaning he wasn't really fooling many batters. And Verlander, for all the "vulnerability" talk, allowed an xBA of only .225 - second lowest of the series so far. Luck is always part of the game so you can't rule it out but it's reasonable to think similar performances by these two pitchers could have drastically different results.

Somebody needs attention.

Indeed - I will NOT be ignored. Look at me!!!!

Quote:But seriously, this is a valid stat. We talk about Verlander having back to back bad starts, but 2 starts could easily be bad luck. It's why we don't evaluate pitchers after their first two starts of the season.

Now that you mention it...

Yankees' xBA in Game 5: .234

Nats also need Turner to produce. He's 3-22 with no xbh and 2 BB. If he doesn't get on base, he can't create havoc on the bases. He stole 35 bases and was only caught 5 times this season. He also hit 19 HR in 122 games. They need that Trea Turner.

(10-29-2019 03:48 PM)flyingswoosh Wrote: [ -> ]

(10-29-2019 03:46 PM)Brookes Owl Wrote: [ -> ]

(10-28-2019 02:42 PM)Brookes Owl Wrote: [ -> ]We're spending a lot of energy talking about umpiring, but nobody is talking about luck. I'm not seeing a lot of advanced team metrics out there (for the WS) but baseballsavant is tracking expected batting average (xBA) among other things and here's what it looks like:

Game 1 (Nats 5, Astros 4)
Nats .286
Astros .263
Game 2 (Nats 12, Astros 3)
Nats .225
Astros .360
Game 3 (Astros 4, Nats 1)
Nats .211
Astros .318
Game 4 (Astros 8, Nats 1)
Nats .250
Astros .366

Game 2 is a massive outlier. This is why they play the games of course but these numbers are a good indicator that it was just a matter of time (repetitions) before Houston would start producing.

*crickets*

Nobody said anything about this but it's worth bumping with Strasburg going tonight. In his Game 2 start the Astros had an xBA of .360 - only a little bit lower than their Game 4 xBA - meaning he wasn't really fooling many batters. And Verlander, for all the "vulnerability" talk, allowed an xBA of only .225 - second lowest of the series so far. Luck is always part of the game so you can't rule it out but it's reasonable to think similar performances by these two pitchers could have drastically different results.

Somebody needs attention.

But seriously, this is a valid stat. We talk about Verlander having back to back bad starts, but 2 starts could easily be bad luck. It's why we don't evaluate pitchers after their first two starts of the season.

in game 2 Verlander had 3 walks to 1 for Strasburg. That's got to be added to the mix...

Verlander in his 1 "good" start in the last 3 since he started short- was game 2 of the LCS. 2 runs in 6.2 innings. 2 bb/7 k.

BUT looking at your thing- he had 8 balls that had an xBA of .400 or greater, but gave up only 5 hits... So he got really lucky there.

game 5- he had 10 of 16 pa's with an xBA of .330 or greater. Only gave up 5 hits.

game 2- he had 6 of 15 pa's with an xBA of .330 or greater. Gave up 7 hits..

So in the last 3 games- he's had 47 pa's- and of those 24 ended with an xBA of .330 or greater.

Stras has had 29/45 with that...

NOW- Verlander has had 22 k's which aren't factored in. Stras 26 k's in that time.

So Verlander 24/69 pa's ended with an xBA of .330 or greater plus 5 walks.
Strasburg 29/71 pa's ended with an xBA of .330 or greater. Plus 2 walks

Pretty close to equal.

(10-29-2019 04:25 PM)stever20 Wrote: [ -> ]

(10-29-2019 03:48 PM)flyingswoosh Wrote: [ -> ]

(10-29-2019 03:46 PM)Brookes Owl Wrote: [ -> ]

(10-28-2019 02:42 PM)Brookes Owl Wrote: [ -> ]We're spending a lot of energy talking about umpiring, but nobody is talking about luck. I'm not seeing a lot of advanced team metrics out there (for the WS) but baseballsavant is tracking expected batting average (xBA) among other things and here's what it looks like:

Game 1 (Nats 5, Astros 4)
Nats .286
Astros .263
Game 2 (Nats 12, Astros 3)
Nats .225
Astros .360
Game 3 (Astros 4, Nats 1)
Nats .211
Astros .318
Game 4 (Astros 8, Nats 1)
Nats .250
Astros .366

Game 2 is a massive outlier. This is why they play the games of course but these numbers are a good indicator that it was just a matter of time (repetitions) before Houston would start producing.

*crickets*

Nobody said anything about this but it's worth bumping with Strasburg going tonight. In his Game 2 start the Astros had an xBA of .360 - only a little bit lower than their Game 4 xBA - meaning he wasn't really fooling many batters. And Verlander, for all the "vulnerability" talk, allowed an xBA of only .225 - second lowest of the series so far. Luck is always part of the game so you can't rule it out but it's reasonable to think similar performances by these two pitchers could have drastically different results.

Somebody needs attention.

But seriously, this is a valid stat. We talk about Verlander having back to back bad starts, but 2 starts could easily be bad luck. It's why we don't evaluate pitchers after their first two starts of the season.

in game 2 Verlander had 3 walks to 1 for Strasburg. That's got to be added to the mix...

Verlander in his 1 "good" start in the last 3 since he started short- was game 2 of the LCS. 2 runs in 6.2 innings. 2 bb/7 k.

BUT looking at your thing- he had 8 balls that had an xBA of .400 or greater, but gave up only 5 hits... So he got really lucky there.

game 5- he had 10 of 16 pa's with an xBA of .330 or greater. Only gave up 5 hits.

game 2- he had 6 of 15 pa's with an xBA of .330 or greater. Gave up 7 hits..

So in the last 3 games- he's had 47 pa's- and of those 24 ended with an xBA of .330 or greater.

Stras has had 29/45 with that...

NOW- Verlander has had 22 k's which aren't factored in. Stras 26 k's in that time.

So Verlander 24/69 pa's ended with an xBA of .330 or greater plus 5 walks.
Strasburg 29/71 pa's ended with an xBA of .330 or greater. Plus 2 walks

Pretty close to equal.

I certainly can’t blame you for trying to put the best possible spin on this data but the team stat takes into account all of those individual pitches and plate appearances.

And here we go. Turner gets on to open the game. He's the spark plug. Verlander will need to pay very close attention.

Why is Eaton bunting?! Stop bunting! He's hitting well in this series.

Wanna talk bad luck? Weak ground ball, bunt, weak ground ball. Killer

That was quick

Looks like that .360 xBA is dropping the X

Wow Strasburg got really lucky. Figured that Gurriel ball was gone.

I am ready for robo umps also, it needs to be fixed. But to use bad ball/strikes calls for Nats losing 3 games is baloney. They were out scored 19-3.


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Eaton has had a very solid series. Making his first inning bunt all the more idiotic.

(10-29-2019 06:14 PM)Brookes Owl Wrote: [ -> ]

(10-29-2019 04:25 PM)stever20 Wrote: [ -> ]

(10-29-2019 03:48 PM)flyingswoosh Wrote: [ -> ]

(10-29-2019 03:46 PM)Brookes Owl Wrote: [ -> ]

(10-28-2019 02:42 PM)Brookes Owl Wrote: [ -> ]We're spending a lot of energy talking about umpiring, but nobody is talking about luck. I'm not seeing a lot of advanced team metrics out there (for the WS) but baseballsavant is tracking expected batting average (xBA) among other things and here's what it looks like:

Game 1 (Nats 5, Astros 4)
Nats .286
Astros .263
Game 2 (Nats 12, Astros 3)
Nats .225
Astros .360
Game 3 (Astros 4, Nats 1)
Nats .211
Astros .318
Game 4 (Astros 8, Nats 1)
Nats .250
Astros .366

Game 2 is a massive outlier. This is why they play the games of course but these numbers are a good indicator that it was just a matter of time (repetitions) before Houston would start producing.

*crickets*

Nobody said anything about this but it's worth bumping with Strasburg going tonight. In his Game 2 start the Astros had an xBA of .360 - only a little bit lower than their Game 4 xBA - meaning he wasn't really fooling many batters. And Verlander, for all the "vulnerability" talk, allowed an xBA of only .225 - second lowest of the series so far. Luck is always part of the game so you can't rule it out but it's reasonable to think similar performances by these two pitchers could have drastically different results.

Somebody needs attention.

But seriously, this is a valid stat. We talk about Verlander having back to back bad starts, but 2 starts could easily be bad luck. It's why we don't evaluate pitchers after their first two starts of the season.

in game 2 Verlander had 3 walks to 1 for Strasburg. That's got to be added to the mix...

Verlander in his 1 "good" start in the last 3 since he started short- was game 2 of the LCS. 2 runs in 6.2 innings. 2 bb/7 k.

BUT looking at your thing- he had 8 balls that had an xBA of .400 or greater, but gave up only 5 hits... So he got really lucky there.

game 5- he had 10 of 16 pa's with an xBA of .330 or greater. Only gave up 5 hits.

game 2- he had 6 of 15 pa's with an xBA of .330 or greater. Gave up 7 hits..

So in the last 3 games- he's had 47 pa's- and of those 24 ended with an xBA of .330 or greater.

Stras has had 29/45 with that...

NOW- Verlander has had 22 k's which aren't factored in. Stras 26 k's in that time.

So Verlander 24/69 pa's ended with an xBA of .330 or greater plus 5 walks.
Strasburg 29/71 pa's ended with an xBA of .330 or greater. Plus 2 walks

Pretty close to equal.

I certainly can’t blame you for trying to put the best possible spin on this data but the team stat takes into account all of those individual pitches and plate appearances.

Who gives a rip about team stats when you are talking about an individual starter....

Also if a guy gives up 18 batted balls- and 10 are at .350 and 8 are at .010- his average would be .239, but you would hardly call it a great game, now would you?

Think Eaton will stop bunting?

(10-29-2019 08:51 PM)flyingswoosh Wrote: [ -> ]Think Eaton will stop bunting?

1st guy in World Series history to have 2 games with a sac bunt and a homer in the same game.

another rather mediocre start for Verlander….

wow-
Justin Verlander career #WorldSeries stats:
38 IP, 5.68 ERA, 1.290 WHIP, 0-5 W-L (currently in line for 6th L tonight)

Watch Altuve and Correa and you wonder how they ever get hits

Why is this taking so long? He was obviously running on the grass. That gets called interference ten times out of ten