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Full Version: Tracking the return of JMU sports (NO more discussions of validity of covid pandemic)
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(07-18-2020 02:42 PM)Wear Purple Wrote: [ -> ]Interesting...

...the Canadian government has denied the Toronto Blue Jays to play home baseball games in this upcoming 60-game schedule.

The US-Canadian border remains closed for non-essential travel until Aug. 21.

The Jays were originally set to open at home on July 29 against the Nats.

Toronto's spring training home is in Dunedin, Florida. Perhaps they will play "home" games there? We'll see.

Coronavirus cases continue to surge in the U.S., while Canada has pretty much flattened their curve.

Side note, the NHL will host 2 "bubbles" to continue its season in both Toronto and Edmonton, but that is a little different in the sense that it doesn't involve constant cross-border traveling. Well, at least that's the theory. Take it FWIW.

Not to go too OT here b/c I know it's a JMU board, but is the NHL planning on playing all of the games at the Leafs and Oilers stadiums? I can't see how that would be possible. The ice would be a mess. I assume they'll be using other rinks in the near areas.
(07-17-2020 03:07 PM)DoubleDogDare Wrote: [ -> ]
(07-17-2020 02:19 PM)Centdukesfan Wrote: [ -> ]
(07-07-2020 07:49 AM)Dukester Wrote: [ -> ]The reason the season will be canceled is not due to the fans, it's the participant issues.

This just seems misguided. For college aged students the flu has a greater relative risk. [Image: EdJkZ6fXoAE9UPK?format=png&name=4096x4096]

The fans HAVE to be what its about.

[Image: 43815856.jpg]

Looking past your very low standard on safety, are you purposely ignorant or did you just forget about coaches, back office/support staff, medical staff, trainers, game day staff, and the hundreds of other people that are required for a team/game to function that just might not be college aged?

The coaches can figure out how to keep themselves over six ft away from everyone, wear masks as needed, etc.

For other employees, businesses of all types are open now, with masks, physical distancing, etc. I doubt the people working and participating in those are any worse off than JMU support staff. The medical staff has the training and procedures to deal with covid.

For fans, people can choose to attend games or not. The number of fans will just a few thousand very spread out people at most. There is very little risk to them.

The players and officials are the only real health issue with having games, IMO. They will have to be in close or actual physical contact enough to put them at additional risk, albeit very small risk. Personally, I would play, no problem, etc. The additional risk is low enough to accept.

But IMO, the NCAA will cancel all fall tournaments and playoffs. So, if we care about that, then all of this is moot.
(07-18-2020 04:52 PM)DukeThaDawg Wrote: [ -> ]
(07-18-2020 01:24 PM)BDKJMU Wrote: [ -> ]If you’re not playing for a conference championship, and you’re not playing for a playoffs/national championship, and you’re not playing for a bowl game, then what are you playing for?

I WOULDN’T have made the blanket statement only will play if there’s a playoffs. Here's my armchair QB plan:
-Try to get 4 G5/P5 games scheduled & a ½ doz or so FCS. Would tell the G5/P5 you will play those games REGARDLESS of the playoffs. Tells the FCS that you will play them as long as there are payoffs.

-If the playoffs are cancelled, then you ditch the FCS games. No point in playing them. Still play the 4 G5/P5 games in a 4 game exhibition type season. The NCAA allows players to play up to 4 games a season and not burn a redshirt or lose a season of eligibility.

-If there's a shortened Spring season with playoffs (doubtful), then no one burned a redshirt or season of eligibility in the Fall playing 4 G5/P5 games, and you play in the Spring. More football. Yeah!

-If there’s no Spring season, and no more football until 2021 season, then no one burned a redshirt or season of eligibility in this Fall playing 4 G5/P5 games. At least you got 4 games in vs the big boys. Maybe get a win or 2 or 3. Yeah!

-And if some or all of the 4 FBS games were cancelled, and no football until late summer 2021, oh well, JMU tried, no one burned a redshirt or season of eligibility in this Fall.

Now that is a GREAT plan. Makes perfect sense. I love how you came up with a plan to protect player eligibility and redshirt seasons. And think of the exposure this program would get
I hope you work in the JMU Athletic Department...And that is not a Lol
Thanks, but not with the Athletic Dept. Just another armchair QB on here. Fixed the typos.

Another thing, don't think the NCAA will cancel or postpone the playoffs unless/until at least 1/2 the AQ conferences have pulled the plug. Right now 8 out of 10 AQ conferences are still on. Only the Patriot and CAA have jumped ship.
Interesting study on how booster shots of MMR may be helpful in non specific immune responses, including covid.

https://mbio.asm.org/content/11/3/e00907-20

This may explain why herd immunity is lower than many other diseases. I had to receive a booster not too long ago because I travel internationally quite a bit for work.
Madia came up with a mock schedule today
https://twitter.com/Madia_DNRSports/stat...4271746054

9/5 @ App St
9/12 vs Chattanooga
9/19 @ UNC
9/26 vs Monmouth
10/3 vs Elon
10/10 @ ODU
10/17 vs Campbell
10/24 vs Wofford
10/31 Bye
11/7 @ Liberty
11/14 @ Elon
11/21 vs Merrimack

That seems exciting....But the more reports I read, it seems almost guaranteed that all P5 conferences are gonna go conference ONLY. That means the G5 and FCS lose all their body- bag payouts. It would then seem only logical to expect all G5 to go conference ONLY. Who knows what the FCS will do
But for JMU, a college-wide conference ONLY scheduling model leaves them in big trouble. We'll looking at only FBS and FCS independent's as schedule-mates.
If the P5 and G5 go conference only, that will wipe out all the early to mid-September P5 vs G5/FCS body bag games. The season will then start in late September and include 8 to 10 Conference Only games. With NO fans in the stands, the P5 has absolutely NO incentive to pay those G5/FCS body bag games, nor does the G5 have the incentive to pay the FCS for games.
So, if all conferences decide to go conference ONLY, all these open dates that teams lost because OOC games where cancelled---No longer have any pressing need to be filled.

Now where does that leave JMU?? Trying to cobble together an independent schedule with geographic FBS/FCS independents??
How does a H&H schedule of Liberty, Elon, Presbyterian, Robert Morris sound?!?!---Maybe out of mutual desperation UMass and UConn would agree to games with JMU---But JMU would have to get there on their dime because those teams are not paying them (Especially when in all likelihood they'd be paying for a beatdown)

The most realistic part of Madia's mock schedule were the games vs Monmouth and Campbell. Monmouth and Campbell are geographic no brainers. The Big South is only a 7 team conference---now a 6 team conference without Hampton.Losing that Hampton game and some CAA, Patriot games has decimated some schedules of teams in the Big South conference. Those Big south teams will be looking to fill dates.
If the all P5 goes to conference only, where they preserve some OOC P5 rivalry games, that puts the G5 in a tough spot. If the G5 goes conference only, JMU is in an even tougher spot. JMU better hope some G5 teams in their region are looking to fill some open dates. Then App St, ODU, ECU, etc could definitely happen.
I think a H&H with Elon, an away game with Liberty, and games vs Monmouth and Campbell are completely realistic. As far as the rest of the schedule, I think Big South and SoCon teams are more likely fillers.
And even if everything works out where JMU can schedule P5 or G5 games, where gonna have to pay our own way
(07-18-2020 04:52 PM)DukeThaDawg Wrote: [ -> ]
(07-18-2020 01:24 PM)BDKJMU Wrote: [ -> ]If you’re not playing for a conference championship, and you’re not playing for a playoffs/national championship, and you’re not playing for a bowl game, then what are you playing for?

I WOULDN’T have made the blanket statement only will play if there’s a playoffs. Here's my armchair QB plan:
-Try to get 4 G5/P5 games scheduled & a ½ doz or so FCS. Would tell the G5/P5 you will play those games REGARDLESS of the playoffs. Tells the FCS that you will play them as long as there are payoffs.

-If the playoffs are cancelled, then you ditch the FCS games. No point in playing them. Still play the 4 G5/P5 games in a 4 game exhibition type season. The NCAA allows players to play up to 4 games a season and not burn a redshirt or lose a season of eligibility.

-If there's a shortened Spring season with playoffs (doubtful), then no one burned a redshirt or season of eligibility in the Fall playing 4 G5/P5 games, and you play in the Spring. More football. Yeah!

-If there’s no Spring season, and no more football until 2021 season, then no one burned a redshirt or season of eligibility in this Fall playing 4 G5/P5 games. At least you got 4 games in vs the big boys. Maybe get a win or 2 or 3. Yeah!

-And if some or all of the 4 FBS games were cancelled, and no football until late summer 2021, oh well, JMU tried, no one burned a redshirt or season of eligibility in this Fall.

Now that is a GREAT plan. Makes perfect sense. I love how you came up with a plan to protect player eligibility and redshirt seasons. And think of the exposure this program would get
I hope you work in the JMU Athletic Department...And that is not a Lol

This is a great thought, but not a great plan. Players only get one RS season, so all of the players that have already used their RS would lose a year of eligibility for only playing in 4 games. IMO it wouldn't be worth losing a year of eligibility for 4 games.
(07-20-2020 06:50 AM)DWING Wrote: [ -> ]
(07-18-2020 04:52 PM)DukeThaDawg Wrote: [ -> ]
(07-18-2020 01:24 PM)BDKJMU Wrote: [ -> ]If you’re not playing for a conference championship, and you’re not playing for a playoffs/national championship, and you’re not playing for a bowl game, then what are you playing for?

I WOULDN’T have made the blanket statement only will play if there’s a playoffs. Here's my armchair QB plan:
-Try to get 4 G5/P5 games scheduled & a ½ doz or so FCS. Would tell the G5/P5 you will play those games REGARDLESS of the playoffs. Tells the FCS that you will play them as long as there are payoffs.

-If the playoffs are cancelled, then you ditch the FCS games. No point in playing them. Still play the 4 G5/P5 games in a 4 game exhibition type season. The NCAA allows players to play up to 4 games a season and not burn a redshirt or lose a season of eligibility.

-If there's a shortened Spring season with playoffs (doubtful), then no one burned a redshirt or season of eligibility in the Fall playing 4 G5/P5 games, and you play in the Spring. More football. Yeah!

-If there’s no Spring season, and no more football until 2021 season, then no one burned a redshirt or season of eligibility in this Fall playing 4 G5/P5 games. At least you got 4 games in vs the big boys. Maybe get a win or 2 or 3. Yeah!

-And if some or all of the 4 FBS games were cancelled, and no football until late summer 2021, oh well, JMU tried, no one burned a redshirt or season of eligibility in this Fall.

Now that is a GREAT plan. Makes perfect sense. I love how you came up with a plan to protect player eligibility and redshirt seasons. And think of the exposure this program would get
I hope you work in the JMU Athletic Department...And that is not a Lol

This is a great thought, but not a great plan. Players only get one RS season, so all of the players that have already used their RS would lose a year of eligibility for only playing in 4 games. IMO it wouldn't be worth losing a year of eligibility for 4 games.

With the new rules, an athlete can play in four games without losing their redshirt.
(07-18-2020 01:24 PM)BDKJMU Wrote: [ -> ]If you’re not playing for a conference championship, and you’re not playing for a playoffs/national championship, and you’re not playing for a bowl game, then what are you playing for?

I WOULDN’T have made the blanket statement only will play if there’s a playoffs. Here's my armchair QB plan:
-Try to get 4 G5/P5 games scheduled & a ½ doz or so FCS. Would tell the G5/P5 you will play those games REGARDLESS of the playoffs. Tells the FCS that you will play them as long as there are payoffs.

-If the playoffs are cancelled, then you ditch the FCS games. No point in playing them. Still play the 4 G5/P5 games in a 4 game exhibition type season. The NCAA allows players to play up to 4 games a season and not burn a redshirt or lose a season of eligibility.

-If there's a shortened Spring season with playoffs (doubtful), then no one burned a redshirt or season of eligibility in the Fall playing 4 G5/P5 games, and you play in the Spring. More football. Yeah!

-If there’s no Spring season, and no more football until 2021 season, then no one burned a redshirt or season of eligibility in this Fall playing 4 G5/P5 games. At least you got 4 games in vs the big boys. Maybe get a win or 2 or 3. Yeah!

-And if some or all of the 4 FBS games were cancelled, and no football until late summer 2021, oh well, JMU tried, no one burned a redshirt or season of eligibility in this Fall.

A 10/11 week season isn't happening this fall. As such, I believe two things could happen (with limited time thinking about it this morning). (1) The majority of the G5/P5 conferences stay in tact but say no/limited OOC games. The P5 will keep their G5 home games as their OOC as those games are probably later in the fall than the FCS game, and as such less schedule shuffling, as well as have higher cancellation payouts than the FCS contracts as the programs try to cut costs anyway they can. So the G5 OOC games will be tied up with those P5 games and they will also cancel their FCS opponents. If this happens JMU isn't getting 4 FBS teams to play this fall. (2) Majority of G5/P5 conferences also cancel their season and you are left with FBS schools being "independents" and JMU has a chance of finding 4 FBS games and possibly having its most lucrative ($$$) season ever as they grab multiple $300k payouts.

Both of those scenarios come down to the NCAA explicitly stating that this year would not count against eligibility for either the players (limit of 5 years to play 4 seasons) or for potential spring playoffs (which I doubt would happen anyway). While 10 games might get scheduled, there is absolutely no way that 10 games are played. So if the NCAA doesn't state this season doesn't count, then JMU has to determine if it is worth the risk to burn a year of players eligibility to play a shortened, bragging rights type, season.
(07-19-2020 10:13 PM)DukeThaDawg Wrote: [ -> ]Madia came up with a mock schedule today
https://twitter.com/Madia_DNRSports/stat...4271746054

9/5 @ App St
9/12 vs Chattanooga
9/19 @ UNC
9/26 vs Monmouth
10/3 vs Elon
10/10 @ ODU
10/17 vs Campbell
10/24 vs Wofford
10/31 Bye
11/7 @ Liberty
11/14 @ Elon
11/21 vs Merrimack

That seems exciting....But the more reports I read, it seems almost guaranteed that all P5 conferences are gonna go conference ONLY. That means the G5 and FCS lose all their body- bag payouts. It would then seem only logical to expect all G5 to go conference ONLY. Who knows what the FCS will do
But for JMU, a college-wide conference ONLY scheduling model leaves them in big trouble. We'll looking at only FBS and FCS independent's as schedule-mates.
If the P5 and G5 go conference only, that will wipe out all the early to mid-September P5 vs G5/FCS body bag games. The season will then start in late September and include 8 to 10 Conference Only games. With NO fans in the stands, the P5 has absolutely NO incentive to pay those G5/FCS body bag games, nor does the G5 have the incentive to pay the FCS for games.
So, if all conferences decide to go conference ONLY, all these open dates that teams lost because OOC games where cancelled---No longer have any pressing need to be filled.

Now where does that leave JMU?? Trying to cobble together an independent schedule with geographic FBS/FCS independents??
How does a H&H schedule of Liberty, Elon, Presbyterian, Robert Morris sound?!?!---Maybe out of mutual desperation UMass and UConn would agree to games with JMU---But JMU would have to get there on their dime because those teams are not paying them (Especially when in all likelihood they'd be paying for a beatdown)

The most realistic part of Madia's mock schedule were the games vs Monmouth and Campbell. Monmouth and Campbell are geographic no brainers. The Big South is only a 7 team conference---now a 6 team conference without Hampton.Losing that Hampton game and some CAA, Patriot games has decimated some schedules of teams in the Big South conference. Those Big south teams will be looking to fill dates.
If the all P5 goes to conference only, where they preserve some OOC P5 rivalry games, that puts the G5 in a tough spot. If the G5 goes conference only, JMU is in an even tougher spot. JMU better hope some G5 teams in their region are looking to fill some open dates. Then App St, ODU, ECU, etc could definitely happen.
I think a H&H with Elon, an away game with Liberty, and games vs Monmouth and Campbell are completely realistic. As far as the rest of the schedule, I think Big South and SoCon teams are more likely fillers.
And even if everything works out where JMU can schedule P5 or G5 games, where gonna have to pay our own way

I don't see it, but I wish it would happen.
In today's USA Today article on challenges football will offer this year at all levels.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/20...467636002/
This article in today's USA Today will be agreed with by at least 65% of folks, including myself.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/co...468653002/

07-coffee3
(07-20-2020 08:10 AM)DoubleDogDare Wrote: [ -> ]
(07-18-2020 01:24 PM)BDKJMU Wrote: [ -> ]If you’re not playing for a conference championship, and you’re not playing for a playoffs/national championship, and you’re not playing for a bowl game, then what are you playing for?

I WOULDN’T have made the blanket statement only will play if there’s a playoffs. Here's my armchair QB plan:
-Try to get 4 G5/P5 games scheduled & a ½ doz or so FCS. Would tell the G5/P5 you will play those games REGARDLESS of the playoffs. Tells the FCS that you will play them as long as there are payoffs.

-If the playoffs are cancelled, then you ditch the FCS games. No point in playing them. Still play the 4 G5/P5 games in a 4 game exhibition type season. The NCAA allows players to play up to 4 games a season and not burn a redshirt or lose a season of eligibility.

-If there's a shortened Spring season with playoffs (doubtful), then no one burned a redshirt or season of eligibility in the Fall playing 4 G5/P5 games, and you play in the Spring. More football. Yeah!

-If there’s no Spring season, and no more football until 2021 season, then no one burned a redshirt or season of eligibility in this Fall playing 4 G5/P5 games. At least you got 4 games in vs the big boys. Maybe get a win or 2 or 3. Yeah!

-And if some or all of the 4 FBS games were cancelled, and no football until late summer 2021, oh well, JMU tried, no one burned a redshirt or season of eligibility in this Fall.

A 10/11 week season isn't happening this fall. As such, I believe two things could happen (with limited time thinking about it this morning). (1) The majority of the G5/P5 conferences stay in tact but say no/limited OOC games. The P5 will keep their G5 home games as their OOC as those games are probably later in the fall than the FCS game, and as such less schedule shuffling, as well as have higher cancellation payouts than the FCS contracts as the programs try to cut costs anyway they can. So the G5 OOC games will be tied up with those P5 games and they will also cancel their FCS opponents. If this happens JMU isn't getting 4 FBS teams to play this fall. (2) Majority of G5/P5 conferences also cancel their season and you are left with FBS schools being "independents" and JMU has a chance of finding 4 FBS games and possibly having its most lucrative ($$$) season ever as they grab multiple $300k payouts.

Both of those scenarios come down to the NCAA explicitly stating that this year would not count against eligibility for either the players (limit of 5 years to play 4 seasons) or for potential spring playoffs (which I doubt would happen anyway). While 10 games might get scheduled, there is absolutely no way that 10 games are played. So if the NCAA doesn't state this season doesn't count, then JMU has to determine if it is worth the risk to burn a year of players eligibility to play a shortened, bragging rights type, season.

This^^^ is the problem I've been afraid of---If there is no/limited OOC games---Where does that leave JMU with their independent schedule?? Will the G5 be looking to plug dates?? Or will they just go to a conference Only schedule, along with whatever P5 OOC they're lucky enough to maintain.

With the NCAA allowing for 2 FCS wins to count for bowl eligibility---The P5/G5 has even less incentive to schedule JMU, specifically. Hawaii has just scheduled Robert Morris to fill a lost date. Why would G5 schools like Hawaii schedule JMU---a game they could legitimately lose---when they can schedule Robert Morris for a guaranteed beatdown, and have it count towards bowl eligibility.

JMU is realistically looking at FCS/FBS independents---and right now some Big South teams (who have had their schedules ruined with the CAA, Patriot, Hampton cancellations)---and eventually probably some SoCon and OVC teams, once the other P5 announce their scheduling models for this season, and they inevitably lose those games

JMU better hope the G5's that lose P5 OOC games, and the FCS that lose P5/G5 games, do not decide to go conference Only, and are looking to fill empty dates. And JMU better be ready to get on a plane to fill some of those dates
The NFL Players Association in negotiations with the NFL wants preseason eliminated entirely (NFL already cut Weeks 1 and 4 with Weeks 2 and 3 of the preseason scheduled to be played). The NFL has countered with cutting Week 2 and only have 1 preseason game which would be the originally scheduled Week 3 game (last weekend of August).

The NFLPA is pushing back in several other important areas as well with regards to safety. I've read reports with key NFLPA leaders saying things like "the owners aren't taking this seriously". I think we all just kinda sorta assume the NFL will go on as scheduled. And, I still think it will. But, it's not 100% guaranteed, especially right now before camps are due to open in about a week.

Stay tuned.

07-coffee3
The risk of death for college aged athletes seems to be somewhere between .001% and .006%

[Image: EdYswsjXYAA16-F?format=jpg&name=large]
(07-20-2020 12:44 PM)Centdukesfan Wrote: [ -> ]The risk of death for college aged athletes seems to be somewhere between .001% and .006%

[Image: EdYswsjXYAA16-F?format=jpg&name=large]

You're right.

Problem is they still spread the virus. Most everyone of those college aged athletes will come in contact with someone in much higher risk category on a daily basis. Could be a coach, professor, someone in administration, family member, etc.

Would football players over 300 pounds be at a higher risk?

Florida, California, and Texas have all hit their daily high for deaths in the last couple weeks Obviously this is related to the case spread by the younger Americans. States are rolling back restrictions because hospitalizations and death are going up.

If only we had worn masks at the percentages as others across the world. Those dangerous masks Doctors have been wearing daily for the last 75 years.

And if the a concern just for the deaths, or also for the short term and long term damage to someone's health?

It's not too hard to imagine when this mixes with the flu season, how much more complex this will be. Additionally the people I know who have taken the test (about 20) have taken between 5 days and two weeks to get the results. That is not too helpful.

Also, much of the world does contact tracing for cases. When you have 65,000 new cases a day it's impossible to contact trace.

The right to NOT wear a face mask, and to NOT socially distance has really put us behind most of the world in cases, deaths, economy, and sports.

Thankfully the medical community and specialists have improved their ability to care for people with the virus.
Dukester - Given that Cent has made multiple post referencing college aged kids and death rates, without providing a connection to sports, but has yet to respond to any counter that involves the return to sports (raised by myself in #374, you just now, DukeDogNation in #367, and JMad in #373), and instead has stated the logical points that he isn't considering are "not worth responding" (post #388), can we just agree that Cent is set on discussing the validity of covid and not the actual return of sports, in which case a mod should just ban/warn him?
(07-20-2020 01:34 PM)DoubleDogDare Wrote: [ -> ]Dukester - Given that Cent has made multiple post referencing college aged kids and death rates, without providing a connection to sports, but has yet to respond to any counter that involves the return to sports (raised by myself in #374, you just now, DukeDogNation in #367, and JMad in #373), and instead has stated the logical points that he isn't considering are "not worth responding" (post #388), can we just agree that Cent is set on discussing the validity of covid and not the actual return of sports, in which case a mod should just ban/warn him?

Yeah - you should totally ban me for providing statistics regarding college aged kids when discussing the safety of college aged kids playing sports. Sorry, its barely worth responding to most these posts because I keep getting called a racist dummy for reading statistics differently than others here. Total insanity.

Ive said it dozens of times, protect the at risk, and let everyone else manage their own risks personally, and then to their extended families.

If your grocery store, garbagemen, the guys and gals who deliver your packages and local police officers can figure out how to manage risk and spread, so can college athletic programs.
Jeff Bourne being interviewed @ 4 O'Clock hour - https://www.radio.com/thefanrichmond/listen
Anybody that has ever been a member of a football team knows how quickly an illness can spread through the team/program.

The practice and game of football is totally antithetical to social distancing. Cases are out of control right now, hospitalizations are rising and deaths are now starting to follow. This is without schools and sport having resumed... how can anyone think we can bring these things back without seeing negative consequences?
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