(07-29-2020 10:00 PM)DoubleDogDare Wrote: [ -> ]The only way JMU would have 3 FBS games this year is if we had accepted the Sunbelt invite years ago.
3 of the P5 have already gone to conference + 1 OOC/rivalry game. The other two are very likely to follow suit in the next couple days as Sports illustrated is saying the majority of SEC ADs said they want conference only on today's call. The P5s +1/rivalry game is already on their schedule. Those that have already lost their opponent when the MEAC, SWAC, CAA, etc. cancelled, still have 2 other OOCs already under contract. Yes, some teams will be dumped, like say Auburn when UNC decides they want to play us/UConn/UCF instead of them. So absolutely, there will be plenty of teams that now have a free weekend now. Except, a free weekend doesn't matter if you can only can only schedule one OCC. And again, you already have that OCC under contract, such as Auburn still has Southern Miss and UMass under contract to play. So when someone says WVU is looking for a game cause chic fil a kickoff is cancelled, yes, today they might appear to be looking (and actually they aren't cause they know they are likely going conference only +1). But next week when Big 12 is conference only +1, they have EKU and Maryland already under contract. And maybe Maryland is lost due to ACC +1 rules, they still have EKU. Maybe WVU uses all three but IF that happens, I honestly don't think the WVU cares to schedule an OOC game when they still have 9 conference games to play. So scratch all your P5s not named UNC off your wish list.
Due to the above, a lot of G5s will be losing on their payday game/s. Take UCF - they lost both their UNC and GTech games today. They aren't in a position to replace two cancelled cash inflows (P5 payday) with an FCS game that has no ticket sales + guarantee payment to FCS team. Not to mention, they too still have a third OOC game already on the schedule (FIU). I'm sure there will be a G5 team out there that had all 3 of their OOC games cancelled, but I imagine the likelihood that the school is in a financial position to pay an FCS team, wants to still play a September OOC game, and is within a bus ride, is pretty low. Scratch those G5s off your list too.
Now you are left with the independents. ND is set with ACC. BYU and NMSU are out for JMU due to travel. So the only FBS teams that JMU has any real chance with is Liberty, UConn, UMass and Army. Only one of those fits the stated bus ride goal that Bourne mentioned.
I'd love to play 3 FBS games this year. I don't think it is happening.
! agree 100% with your analysis. The ACC revealing their scheduling model, just wiped out a whole slate of G5 and FCS games. So even though UNC has vs JMU under contract, they also have vs UConn too. So those would be the 2 OOC games they'd be picking from. UVA might be looking for an OOC game but they have vs VMI and vs UConn to choose from, then they have @ODU they can flip to a home game. There are alot of open dates now---but ambiguously, there are not.
When the SEC and B12 announce a similar scheduling model, more G5 and FCS games will be wiped out. Without those $$ games, you could see the domino's really start to fall as FCS teams and conferences cancel seasons because they see no benefit in continuing their seasons without those P5 body-bag $$ games. Then a bunch of potential FCS opponents, who had open dates when the P5 schedules were modified, will be wiped out
That would leave the G5 to soldier on, which I guess they would do, but with some kind of conference only scheduling model. The G5's will be losing those $$ body-bag games too, so what will be their decision to mitigate that? I'm sure they won't be paying FCS teams to fill scheduling holes. The MAC and MWC conference basically have tight geographic fits, so they could go to a conference only model without too much hassle. But the CUSA, Sun Belt, AAC are far flung geographic conferences, I guess they'd have to come up with some type of flexible scheduling model.
Take App State for instance---here is their conference slate
Vs LA-Laf
@ Geo SO
vs Ark State
@ LA-M
@ Tex State
vs Geo State
@ Coastal
vs Troy
Because of travel and loss of $$ do they dump LA-Laf, Ark ST, LA-M?? Do they replace them with H&H with Coastal, Geo So, Geo St?? Or does this give JMU an opportunity to slide in??
The same goes for ODU, Marshall, Charlotte, Coastal, ECU, etc---Do they replace far out travel conference games with more regional opponents? And do those games become H&H with more regional conference mates? Or does that open a spot for JMU? Even if it does open a spot for JMU, I wouldn't expect these G5 schools to be too generous with their payouts.
Hopefully, enough FCS teams can hang on (Looks more doubtful by the minute) for JMU to schedule them as opponents. If I was Bourne, I wouldn't be against putting the team on a plane to pick up a P5 body-bag game or 2, if that remains a possibility. If I was Bourne, somehow coming up with a way to schedule games with FBS independents---Liberty, UMass, UConn---maybe through neutral sites/cost sharing would be on the table.
***t always rolls downhill. The P5 (Autonomy 5) has just cut the umbilical cord and sent the rest of college football on their own. I always believed JMU was enthusiastically ready, able and willing to play---But I always feared that without a conference, as each domino fell, JMU's opportunity to schedule games would slowly fade away.
