(08-07-2023 02:24 PM)Orange County Owl Wrote: [ -> ]... and the Pac4 concept in peril already.
https://twitter.com/PeteThamel
Pete Thamel
@PeteThamel
·
16m
Sources: In the next 24 hours, there’s two calls for the ACC to vet and have early exploratory discussions on the potential addition of Cal and Stanford. One is for ACC athletic directors and the other for the league's presidents and chancellors.
It’s a fluid landscape for the four leftover Pac-12 schools, and there’s myriad options being discussed. This one of them.
Makes sense. I’ve always felt that the views of the Atlantic Ocean are unrivaled in the Bay Area.
Rice 19,011
SMU 24,971
Tulane 20,361 (up from 10K in '21)
Duke 24,505
Wake Forest 30,053
Vandy 29,193
Army 28,647
Navy 36,165
Air Force 26,926
This would be a dream scenario for Rice, but where do the TV/streaming $s come from to support this league?
Service academies have nation-wide appeal that would bring some TV dollars. Otherwise not much. What would make that work is the N word—Notre Dame.
IMO, Notre Dame wouldn't want to share their wealth. They are p5, though they could choose otherwise I suppose.
IDK, just spit balling. Where does the TV money come from? From marketing the above as REAL college amateur athletes.
What you need to do is 'out' P5 as not being college amateur athletics... but pro athletics. The NCAA has essentially lost their entire function and purpose. Have the above group form their own league... The UAB, UH, UTSA et al of the world can go either way, but they can't straddle the fence. Either you are an amateur or a pro... you trade your NIL for a FULL scholarship plus some spending money... IDK, maybe $2k/month. If someone wants to fund NIL, they can do it through the University and things like the rice investment become a real advantage... despite the additional cost for athletes.
(08-07-2023 03:48 PM)Houston Owl 2 Wrote: [ -> ]Oregon and Washington are in the same conference as Maryland and Rutgers. There couldn't be worse travel for those schools.
Cal and Stanford to the ACC would be even worse. At least the majority of Big10 teams are in the upper midwest.
Rice 19,011
SMU 24,971
Tulane 20,361 (up from 10K in '21)
Duke 24,505
Wake Forest 30,053
Vandy 29,193
Army 28,647
Navy 36,165
Air Force 26,926
This would be a dream scenario for Rice, but where do the TV/streaming $s come from to support this league?
Some of these attendance numbers will go way down after recent/future developments which result in several schools no longer hosting P5 conference games and bringing in P5 fans that can't get tickets to their own home games.
Today Jon Wilner (San Jose Mercury) suggests this, if Cal & Stanford don't go to the BiG or ACC:
Quote:If the four schools decide to rebuild the Pac-12, they must add at least two members in order to become an officially recognized conference by the NCAA.
But a conference of six schools doesn’t work for a variety of reasons, with scheduling atop the list. The Pac-12 would need at least four schools, and perhaps six, to become viable.
The Pac-4 could attempt to lure a handful of schools from the Mountain West, with an emphasis on media value and football success.
But the schools should think bigger, both in numbers and in scope. In our view, they should add schools from the American Athletic Conference and form a 10-team league.
In addition to a combination of San Diego State, Fresno State, Colorado State and Boise State from the Mountain West, why not add SMU, Rice and Tulane from the American?
All three are top-notch academic schools, which shouldn’t be a consideration at this point but probably is for Stanford and Cal.
SMU and Rice are located in major markets, Dallas and Houston, respectively, while Tulane extends the footprint to New Orleans. (Also, the Green Wave just beat USC in the Cotton Bowl.)
Earlier in the article, Wilner wrote:
Quote:If the four schools opt to rebuild, they must first identify the resources available for the project.
How much cash resides in the Pac-12’s emergency reserves?
How much debt will remain at the end of the 2023-24 fiscal year? What are the liabilities?
And critically: Do they have the authority, as the remaining members of the Pac-12, to withhold any forthcoming revenue distributions from the eight outgoing schools?
The conference will generate more than $500 million in the 2024 fiscal year from broadcast contracts, the NCAA Tournament and the College Football Playoff.
The general counsels from the four schools will undoubtedly comb through the bylaws and budget this week.
Much rests on the amount of cash available, which could be used to help new members pay the departure penalties from their current conferences.
(08-07-2023 12:45 AM)Ourland Wrote: [ -> ]Wake Forest
Pitt
Boston College
Syracuse
Virginia Tech
NC State
Louisville
Memphis
Rice
SMU
Tulane
Duke
Army
Navy
East Carolina
Temple
South Florida
Georgia Tech
A conference something like that would make a whole lot more sense, especially for us, as well as Army/Navy....but there are even more rumblings about the ACC today...as I said almost no one is looking primarily West anymore...those schools have to stay on their island(s) or look East, South, Central...first, they will have to admit to themselves and to others that they are no longer in control, a hard thing for their pride...so...
(08-06-2023 10:27 PM)GoodOwl Wrote: [ -> ]The only reason to join the PAC4 is to kill athletics at Rice, and don't underestimate those who see their chance to finally, unequivocally do so.
I don't if/when the ACC might implode/expand. Not getting an SEC or B10 invite. Big 12 doubtful. So what is the better alternative here?
Well, as I suggested yesterday, the ACC seems to be where the action may be at; and certainly much better for Rice if we could somehow wedge our way in there along with SMU or Tulane, perhaps, especially if the orphans Stanford and (ugh) Cal-Berkeley go to them a-beggin'...problem is, SMU/Tulane may be all the ACC would want or need instead of worrying about Rice... Still as I said, I don't think Stanford would ever give up tryin' to bolt, whether it is a MWC merger, a backfilling of the PAC with far lesser schools, Independence for themselves whether or not any of the other PAC4 come along, or even if they are successful to jump for a lifeline to the ACC...Stanford is not going to rest until they somehow get to the BiG, even if that is not something the BiG schools want--they'd always be threatening to leave perhaps until they shrink down enough to realize they ain't anymore and never will be again what they once were for a while... Even when the ACC in whatever configuration implodes/gets raided, Rice's best bet s to work with what's ;left from that standpoint...of course assuming we get off our 60+ years of lazy a$$es and get our athletic (read: Big 3 Men's sports) in order to make us at least somewhat attractive to these better schools, which is not at all a certainty...
(08-07-2023 12:49 AM)Ourland Wrote: [ -> ]I wouldn't mind going east if the ACC gets raided. Central and Eastern Timeszone exposure is better. Hopefully Memphis, SMU, and Tulane agree.
(08-06-2023 10:27 PM)GoodOwl Wrote: [ -> ]The only reason to join the PAC4 is to kill athletics at Rice, and don't underestimate those who see their chance to finally, unequivocally do so.
I am curious as to whether or not things like the TV contracts and March madness credits stay with the Pac-4, and if they could accrue to our benefit if we joined them, even for just a couple of seasons.
If not, then I am curious as to what would be better. I don't if/when the ACC might implode/expand. Not getting an SEC or B10 invite. Big 12 doubtful. So what is the better alternative here?
We may be in the situation of Butch Cassidy and Sundance when they were on the ledge above the river. Maybe every alternative is bad and we are just looking for the least bad one.
The credits earned through this year will stay behind with the conference (if it remains solvent). Those are usually retained by remaining members and not shared with newcomers. While anything can be negotiated, it's typically that the better media deal with a step up in prominence is enough to satisfy the incoming members while the left-behinds of the prior status quo keep all of whatever exit fees and NCAA credits they would have shared with their former colleagues. I would guess that the best arrangement any new PAC members could argue for would be to use those credits to settle as much of the Comcast debt as possible.
Exactly, leaving any new backfilled-in schools with not a whole lot, and likely not enough to make the huge dropoff in exposure, far increased travel costs, far increased stress on their athletes of all sports, G5-level (which is what a Pac4+ anyone else would actually be whether they want to admit it or not) revenue (or perhaps worse due to late West Coast starts) not even worth it. Heck, in that scenario, UTEP seems better off waiting for a callup to today's MWC along with OSU and WSU and perhaps New Mexico and call it a day.
It seems to me that the longer this drags out, everyone else (with the exception likely of Stanford and Cal-Berkeley themselves) is realizing/going to realize that Stanford and Cal-Berkely have little to no leverage with all their better PAC schools having flown the coop and left them behind. The delusion of Stanford and especially Cal-Berkeley will likely continue for a while, perhaps years. No one really needs them and their expectations are likely to be way out of line with their new reality.
(08-07-2023 09:38 PM)GoodOwl Wrote: [ -> ]It seems to me that the longer this drags out, everyone else (with the exception likely of Stanford and Cal-Berkeley themselves) is realizing/going to realize that Stanford and Cal-Berkely have little to no leverage with all their better PAC schools having flown the coop and left them behind. The delusion of Stanford and especially Cal-Berkeley will likely continue for a while, perhaps years. No one really needs them and their expectations are likely to be way out of line with their new reality.
You really appear to have a delusional complex with regards to Stanford. Did they reject you when you applied? Again, I disagree strongly with your assessment. Stanford is still a very, VERY attractive school for qualified student-athletes given the location and academics, and their $500MM sports endowment-- by far, the largest of any school in the country-- will sustain them going forward.
(08-07-2023 06:47 AM)waltgreenberg Wrote: [ -> ]Disagree strongly with your future assessment of Stanford. They will ALWAYS be an attractive school for student-athletes seeking a great education and a great location....and they have the $500MM sports endowment to weather the lean years.
As for your belief that Rice would be a fool to seek Pac-4 expansion, what if the Pac raids the AAC and we lose SMU, Tulane, Memphis and UTSA? Are you still claiming what remains of the AAC is superior to the new Pac? That's absurd. The AAC would then be in a position to implode.
Walt, in the long run, we can backfill when the ACC implodes, so maybe in the short run for a few years no, but we could use that time to shore ourselves up for a change. I think you overestimate the real pull of Stanford and Cal-Berkeley (OSU/WSU having next to none at this point). The left coast has sadly seemingly been reduced to a shadow of its former rather glorious self when we were all younger. Things are different now.
Stanford has some hard truths to face about its actual position here. I think odds are just as good they try to overplay a weakening hand with every card that falls towards the river and end up drawing dead. It would be a shame, but realistically it will be hard for their leadership to turn on a dime and accept the new reality of how much they just lost so fast. USC/UCLA bolting was one thing, but they got taken down quite a few rungs and are probably still in the first phases of dealing with it so they can;t see the real lay of today's land. Yeah, I'll stand by my statement that Rice or anyone else for that matter, with the exception of already Western schools falling for the PAC4 facade is fool's gold. Again, no matter what scenario, short of Stanford going BiG, SEC or BigXII(VI) they will ALWAYS be a destabilizing force looking to bolt at a moment's notice leaving anyone else they temporarily associate with holding the bag, likely in a worse position overall that where they would have come from.
(08-07-2023 09:38 PM)GoodOwl Wrote: [ -> ]It seems to me that the longer this drags out, everyone else (with the exception likely of Stanford and Cal-Berkeley themselves) is realizing/going to realize that Stanford and Cal-Berkely have little to no leverage with all their better PAC schools having flown the coop and left them behind. The delusion of Stanford and especially Cal-Berkeley will likely continue for a while, perhaps years. No one really needs them and their expectations are likely to be way out of line with their new reality.
You really appear to have a delusional complex with regards to Stanford. Did they reject you when you applied? Again, I disagree strongly with your assessment. Stanford is still a very, VERY attractive school for qualified student-athletes given the location and academics, and their $500MM sports endowment-- by far, the largest of any school in the country-- will sustain them going forward.
I'm just looking realistically at what has transpired and seeing the truth. I'm not saying it is an easy truth to swallow, especially for them. No they are not what they just were two weeks ago, that is a fact, and I do think it is a shame for the record. I got nothing personal in the game against them (do you have some personal connection that makes you react in this way? If so, quite understandable, but doesn't change the new math here) , just calling 'em as I see 'em.
Any "new" version of PAC4 would be a G5, maybe the top one or two, but certainly never anything like the actual PAC that just died in all but name this past week was. If I'm a top-level (read desirable to the now-P3 non-G5) athlete, and especially if I'm well-rounded, why play at Stanford today where even less people will see you and you won't get to play regularly against even USC/UCLA, not to mention Colo/Utah/AZ/ASU when I could get my full ride at an SEC/BiG or even BigXI(VI) school with more exposure, more upside and better competition? It doesn't seem hard to leave the West when so much is waiting for you as a student-athlete by going somewhere EAST/Central/South. I'm sure a few would choose them, but the vast majority are already choosing against the old PAC, so fewer would stay, further diluting what has already gone away....
Artist: Offspring
Album: Ixnay on the Hombre
Song: "Gone Away"
1997 Columbia Records
Quote:All five bowls w/Pac-12 tie-ins (Alamo, Las Vegas, Holiday, Sun & LA) have begun discussions about changing to different conference affiliations for the 2024 & 2025 seasons
(08-07-2023 10:47 PM)GoodOwl Wrote: [ -> ]more food for thought:
Quote:All five bowls w/Pac-12 tie-ins (Alamo, Las Vegas, Holiday, Sun & LA) have begun discussions about changing to different conference affiliations for the 2024 & 2025 seasons
PAc4 seems already just a a glorified G5 with more fleas and warts. More and more folks bailing out and away than in. Makes AAC look nice.
Again, respectfully disagree. The four remaining schools in the Pac-4 (perhaps with Cal the exception) are stronger-- and have far superior sports programs-- than ANY school in the AAC (or any other G5 conference, for that matter). Are you seriously going to deny that?
(08-07-2023 10:47 PM)GoodOwl Wrote: [ -> ]more food for thought:
Quote:All five bowls w/Pac-12 tie-ins (Alamo, Las Vegas, Holiday, Sun & LA) have begun discussions about changing to different conference affiliations for the 2024 & 2025 seasons
PAc4 seems already just a a glorified G5 with more fleas and warts. More and more folks bailing out and away than in. Makes AAC look nice.
Again, respectfully disagree. The four remaining schools in the Pac-4 (perhaps with Cal the exception) are stronger-- and have far superior sports programs-- than ANY school in the AAC (or any other G5 conference, for that matter). Are you seriously going to deny that?
That's okay, Walt, you're welcome to your opinion, many disagree besides myself. And it's a shame, I'd have reathered the SWC stayed together, but our lack of atheltics interest/competitiveness and investment ceratinly didn't help us or that once-storied league. More food for thought, from ESpN, one of the architects of what is happening,telegraphing the new reality:
Quote:Within five hours, the landscape of college sports forever changed. The Pac-12 was essentially finished as a power conference -- and perhaps as a conference, period.
Just over a decade ago, the Pac-12 was one of the biggest brands at the table, even passing up a chance to add Texas and Oklahoma. Now it's on the verge of extinction.
The Pac-12 has lost its status as a major conference and it does not appear to have a path to regain that, even if it decided to emphasize basketball.
But a potential ACC breakup could send some of college basketball's most reputable teams -- UNC, Duke and Virginia -- to other leagues and change the landscape of the sport.
Even if only the Wildcats left the Pac-12 and everyone else stayed, its status as a major basketball conference would have been hanging by a thread. The league hadn't won a national championship since 1997 and it had only two Final Four appearances in the past 15 years. Now basically everyone's gone.
While the Big Ten and SEC will be considered the "Power Two" in football, the Big 12 might be the heavy hitter on the hardwood. Kansas is as consistently successful as anyone in the sport, Baylor has been fantastic in recent years under Scott Drew, it's adding Houston -- 93 wins the past three seasons -- this season, and now Arizona is entering the fold.
The NCAA's contract with CBS/Turner goes through 2032.
Quote:On3
@On3sports
NEWS: The AAC is interested in adding any of the 4 remaining Pac-12 schools,
@EricPrisbell
reports?
Yeah, that kinda illustrates what I have been saying, Walt. That Stanford and Cal-berkeley along with OSU/WSU, don't really have that much power anymore because of what just happened. Sure, they have some value, but they are the ones in far more desperate need of a lifeline to be thrown, not the AAC, MWC, ACC, et cetera. Stanford could go Indy, and perhaps that is their best bet to tread water while hoping for a BiG invite. But that seems to gt more complicated the closer an ACC breakup gets, which seems more inevitable today, even if it goes all the way to the end of the GOR, which it more likely won't. If Stanford has to wait that long, it will accumulate far more regression and damage. I think they at least know time is of the essence. Problem is, no matter what they do, they can't recover anything near to what they just lost. It will take time, and it will sting, but they will regress far more than they wish. You can more likely than not take that to the bank. Even if/when they are finally invited to the BiG, they will be more of an afterthought, like Delta Dawn with that faded flower waiting to be taken away to that mansion in the sky...
Artist: Helen Reddy
Album: Long Hard Climb
Song: "Delta Dawn"
June 11, 1973 Capitol Records
or...for a bit more contemporary take (it's only natur-all)...
Artist: The Kinks
Album: State of Confusion
Song: "Come Dancing"
November 19, 1982 Arista Records