(07-26-2021 10:23 AM)BearcatMan Wrote: [ -> ] (07-26-2021 10:18 AM)UCbball21 Wrote: [ -> ] (07-26-2021 10:14 AM)BearcatMan Wrote: [ -> ] (07-26-2021 10:11 AM)Captain Bearcat Wrote: [ -> ] (07-23-2021 06:15 PM)Bear Catlett Wrote: [ -> ]Yeeeeaaaaahhhh...
I don't know who he's talking to, but I just dont see that happening.
There's a poll on the main forum about who the Big 10 should add. They include 16 teams as possibilities, but UC is not on the list:
https://csnbbs.com/thread-925640.html
That's because we all understand that would be absolute lunacy.
Agreed, Cincy to the B1G is a non-starter. Absolutely zero percent chance.
The SEC pundits have always thought more highly of Cincy than the B1G pundits. I think Finebaum and co. see the value of having another major program in Ohio but OSU and the other B1G schools that recruit in Ohio would never allow it to happen.
That's because the SEC, by and large, has two programs per state and see it as a benefit, not a negative. The Big 10 is the exact opposite, the only states with multiple state schools are Michigan and Indiana, and even that is due to historical attachment early on (because Purdue would absolutely not be a Big Ten type school now)...hell, if not for a businessman donating land for a nice tax credit, it would've been Indiana and Indiana State, and Purdue wouldn't even be a thing. We should all be blaming the University of Chicago honestly...if they were still in the league, I would venture a guess that Pitt and Cincinnati would've had a MUCH higher likelihood of being a part of it all.
Illinois also with Northwestern.
(07-26-2021 10:18 AM)rath v2.0 Wrote: [ -> ]This is Machiavellian level contract diplomacy.
They release a statement that says they are not going to sign off on a renewal of the entire world instead hears “We are leaving.”
Right now the B12, B10, SEC and PAC are all typing up incentive laden proposals for them and they have not even had to do anything but say they are not going to sign a renewal in 4 years.
Brilliant.
Yup. I still feel they stay in the B12 feels like both the remaining 8 and Fox will do anything to make it happen.
(07-26-2021 10:23 AM)BearcatMan Wrote: [ -> ] (07-26-2021 10:18 AM)UCbball21 Wrote: [ -> ] (07-26-2021 10:14 AM)BearcatMan Wrote: [ -> ] (07-26-2021 10:11 AM)Captain Bearcat Wrote: [ -> ] (07-23-2021 06:15 PM)Bear Catlett Wrote: [ -> ]Yeeeeaaaaahhhh...
I don't know who he's talking to, but I just dont see that happening.
There's a poll on the main forum about who the Big 10 should add. They include 16 teams as possibilities, but UC is not on the list:
https://csnbbs.com/thread-925640.html
That's because we all understand that would be absolute lunacy.
Agreed, Cincy to the B1G is a non-starter. Absolutely zero percent chance.
The SEC pundits have always thought more highly of Cincy than the B1G pundits. I think Finebaum and co. see the value of having another major program in Ohio but OSU and the other B1G schools that recruit in Ohio would never allow it to happen.
That's because the SEC, by and large, has two programs per state and see it as a benefit, not a negative. The Big 10 is the exact opposite, the only states with multiple state schools are Michigan and Indiana, and even that is due to historical attachment early on (because Purdue would absolutely not be a Big Ten type school now)...hell, if not for a businessman donating land for a nice tax credit, it would've been Indiana and Indiana State, and Purdue wouldn't even be a thing. We should all be blaming the University of Chicago honestly...if they were still in the league, I would venture a guess that Pitt and Cincinnati would've had a MUCH higher likelihood of being a part of it all.
Purdue is a more stereotypical Big 10 school than Indiana.
Purdue is the land grant school. Purdue has more students and a (slightly) larger endowment than IU. Purdue is ranked higher in US News. Purdue is much higher ranked in research (#83 worldwide in the Leiden ranking vs #214 for Indiana). Even in research funding (which heavily favors universities with med schools), they are roughly even.
Indiana is more or less a fine arts school with a med school attached. Sort of like Cincinnati, actually. Very different from the stereotypical Big Ten school.
The "businessman offering a nice tax credit" was in 1869. It was ancient history by the time the Big Ten was formed.
The SEC usually had 2 schools per state because most Southern states designated 2 flagships: one is engineering/ag, and the other is liberal arts. Most Northern states developed one massive flagship campus. It was just 2 different ways of thinking about how education should be organized. (the south/north split isn't complete: Tennessee, Florida, and Arkansas built one flagship, while Iowa, Michigan, and Indiana split theirs in 2).
(07-26-2021 10:40 AM)robertfoshizzle Wrote: [ -> ] (07-26-2021 10:23 AM)BearcatMan Wrote: [ -> ] (07-26-2021 10:18 AM)UCbball21 Wrote: [ -> ] (07-26-2021 10:14 AM)BearcatMan Wrote: [ -> ] (07-26-2021 10:11 AM)Captain Bearcat Wrote: [ -> ]There's a poll on the main forum about who the Big 10 should add. They include 16 teams as possibilities, but UC is not on the list:
https://csnbbs.com/thread-925640.html
That's because we all understand that would be absolute lunacy.
Agreed, Cincy to the B1G is a non-starter. Absolutely zero percent chance.
The SEC pundits have always thought more highly of Cincy than the B1G pundits. I think Finebaum and co. see the value of having another major program in Ohio but OSU and the other B1G schools that recruit in Ohio would never allow it to happen.
That's because the SEC, by and large, has two programs per state and see it as a benefit, not a negative. The Big 10 is the exact opposite, the only states with multiple state schools are Michigan and Indiana, and even that is due to historical attachment early on (because Purdue would absolutely not be a Big Ten type school now)...hell, if not for a businessman donating land for a nice tax credit, it would've been Indiana and Indiana State, and Purdue wouldn't even be a thing. We should all be blaming the University of Chicago honestly...if they were still in the league, I would venture a guess that Pitt and Cincinnati would've had a MUCH higher likelihood of being a part of it all.
Illinois also with Northwestern.
Northwestern is private so MI and IN are the only B10 states with two public universities.
Some seem to believe expansion will be a relatively slow process. If the TX/OK move is indeed a done deal, I think phones are ringing right now. Clearly, the B12 went through a thorough examination of many candidate schools a couple of summers ago. Is our case better or worse than at that time? Clearly better.
(07-26-2021 10:12 AM)OKIcat Wrote: [ -> ] (07-26-2021 09:12 AM)UCbball21 Wrote: [ -> ] (07-26-2021 08:59 AM)Cat-Man Wrote: [ -> ] (07-26-2021 08:44 AM)UCBearcatlawjd2 Wrote: [ -> ]I think people underestimate Kansas basketball’s value in the streaming world. That is a top five basketball brand. All it takes is to hide a few games behind a paywall service you have a whole bunch of subscribers.
I think we to start thinking in terms of fam bases and fan base potential. I think the Big Ten and Kansas are a great fit. Colorado or Iowa State would make sense too.
This is the statement that worries me the most in all of this. I've read A LOT of national articles in the past 4-5 days, and the one disturbing theme I've noticed is that UC is not 1 or 2 or sometimes 3 on most people's list of expansion candidates. Primarily it's been Houston, Memphis, UCF and BYU. (and a few of the Big12 leftovers automatically jump in front of us). The one common theme to all of them, is the market/fanbase potential. On field success is secondary.
I'm starting to think that a Big 12 implosion and the AAC gobbling up their leftovers, may be the best option for UC at this point.
Most articles I've read have Cincy as one of the top Big 12 candidates for expansion. I wouldn't worry about it, our program is peaking at the right time and we have as much or more to offer than any other program in the conversation. BYU is the only program that I view as a clear cut better addition solely in terms of viewership but they also have a ton of headaches as well.
Bolded, I still believe this to be the case too. Sportswriters, and certainly fans of every program, are myopic and believe they know the criteria for expansion.
I still believe the institutional profile matters in this process. Having said that, I think Louisville was the exception in that regard but winning an NCAA championship and New Year's Day bowl in short succession and building new athletic facilities faster than Amazon puts up warehouses, enabled U of L to catch an express train during a realignment crisis.
With no disrespect to these institutions, serious questions have to be asked about places such as Boise and Memphis (historically, Houston too) in terms of academic and research reputations. Cincinnati checks a lot of boxes and Fickell's ascent is timely. BYU may check a few more boxes in terms of holding a somewhat unique national following. Again, no replacing TX and OK but Cincy and BYU would both be respected additions.
The good news? TX/OK appears to be a done deal now and this may become yet another express train before this week passes.
I'm not worried at all.
UC's conference situation can't get any worse.
We have no in-conference rivals. It's a 2-bid basketball league. The media contract pays only 15% of our budget. The football competition is decent, but we rarely get an in-conference matchup that anyone (nationally OR locally) cares about. What can we possibly lose?
We could go sideways, but we can't go down.
There's also a possibility of going up. I'll be tickled pink if we get to play Kansas and West Virginia every year.
(07-26-2021 11:34 AM)Captain Bearcat Wrote: [ -> ] (07-26-2021 10:12 AM)OKIcat Wrote: [ -> ] (07-26-2021 09:12 AM)UCbball21 Wrote: [ -> ] (07-26-2021 08:59 AM)Cat-Man Wrote: [ -> ] (07-26-2021 08:44 AM)UCBearcatlawjd2 Wrote: [ -> ]I think people underestimate Kansas basketball’s value in the streaming world. That is a top five basketball brand. All it takes is to hide a few games behind a paywall service you have a whole bunch of subscribers.
I think we to start thinking in terms of fam bases and fan base potential. I think the Big Ten and Kansas are a great fit. Colorado or Iowa State would make sense too.
This is the statement that worries me the most in all of this. I've read A LOT of national articles in the past 4-5 days, and the one disturbing theme I've noticed is that UC is not 1 or 2 or sometimes 3 on most people's list of expansion candidates. Primarily it's been Houston, Memphis, UCF and BYU. (and a few of the Big12 leftovers automatically jump in front of us). The one common theme to all of them, is the market/fanbase potential. On field success is secondary.
I'm starting to think that a Big 12 implosion and the AAC gobbling up their leftovers, may be the best option for UC at this point.
Most articles I've read have Cincy as one of the top Big 12 candidates for expansion. I wouldn't worry about it, our program is peaking at the right time and we have as much or more to offer than any other program in the conversation. BYU is the only program that I view as a clear cut better addition solely in terms of viewership but they also have a ton of headaches as well.
Bolded, I still believe this to be the case too. Sportswriters, and certainly fans of every program, are myopic and believe they know the criteria for expansion.
I still believe the institutional profile matters in this process. Having said that, I think Louisville was the exception in that regard but winning an NCAA championship and New Year's Day bowl in short succession and building new athletic facilities faster than Amazon puts up warehouses, enabled U of L to catch an express train during a realignment crisis.
With no disrespect to these institutions, serious questions have to be asked about places such as Boise and Memphis (historically, Houston too) in terms of academic and research reputations. Cincinnati checks a lot of boxes and Fickell's ascent is timely. BYU may check a few more boxes in terms of holding a somewhat unique national following. Again, no replacing TX and OK but Cincy and BYU would both be respected additions.
The good news? TX/OK appears to be a done deal now and this may become yet another express train before this week passes.
I'm not worried at all.
UC's conference situation can't get any worse.
We have no in-conference rivals. It's a 2-bid basketball league. The media contract pays only 15% of our budget. The football competition is decent, but we rarely get an in-conference matchup that anyone (nationally OR locally) cares about. What can we possibly lose?
We could go sideways, but we can't go down.
There's also a possibility of going up. I'll be tickled pink if we get to play Kansas and West Virginia every year.
It can get worse in one way. Say they add teams from the AAC but not UC…
Unlikely to happen but its possible
So are we in our new conference yet?
(07-26-2021 11:52 AM)BcatMatt13 Wrote: [ -> ] (07-26-2021 11:34 AM)Captain Bearcat Wrote: [ -> ] (07-26-2021 10:12 AM)OKIcat Wrote: [ -> ] (07-26-2021 09:12 AM)UCbball21 Wrote: [ -> ] (07-26-2021 08:59 AM)Cat-Man Wrote: [ -> ]This is the statement that worries me the most in all of this. I've read A LOT of national articles in the past 4-5 days, and the one disturbing theme I've noticed is that UC is not 1 or 2 or sometimes 3 on most people's list of expansion candidates. Primarily it's been Houston, Memphis, UCF and BYU. (and a few of the Big12 leftovers automatically jump in front of us). The one common theme to all of them, is the market/fanbase potential. On field success is secondary.
I'm starting to think that a Big 12 implosion and the AAC gobbling up their leftovers, may be the best option for UC at this point.
Most articles I've read have Cincy as one of the top Big 12 candidates for expansion. I wouldn't worry about it, our program is peaking at the right time and we have as much or more to offer than any other program in the conversation. BYU is the only program that I view as a clear cut better addition solely in terms of viewership but they also have a ton of headaches as well.
Bolded, I still believe this to be the case too. Sportswriters, and certainly fans of every program, are myopic and believe they know the criteria for expansion.
I still believe the institutional profile matters in this process. Having said that, I think Louisville was the exception in that regard but winning an NCAA championship and New Year's Day bowl in short succession and building new athletic facilities faster than Amazon puts up warehouses, enabled U of L to catch an express train during a realignment crisis.
With no disrespect to these institutions, serious questions have to be asked about places such as Boise and Memphis (historically, Houston too) in terms of academic and research reputations. Cincinnati checks a lot of boxes and Fickell's ascent is timely. BYU may check a few more boxes in terms of holding a somewhat unique national following. Again, no replacing TX and OK but Cincy and BYU would both be respected additions.
The good news? TX/OK appears to be a done deal now and this may become yet another express train before this week passes.
I'm not worried at all.
UC's conference situation can't get any worse.
We have no in-conference rivals. It's a 2-bid basketball league. The media contract pays only 15% of our budget. The football competition is decent, but we rarely get an in-conference matchup that anyone (nationally OR locally) cares about. What can we possibly lose?
We could go sideways, but we can't go down.
There's also a possibility of going up. I'll be tickled pink if we get to play Kansas and West Virginia every year.
It can get worse in one way. Say they add teams from the AAC but not UC…
Unlikely to happen but its possible
I don't view that as worse.
Even if the Big 12 adds Houston and Memphis, is UC really much worse off?
We'd still not have any in-conference rivals. We'd still be in a 2-bid basketball conference. The TV money would be slightly smaller, but it'd still be miniscule.
If anything, UC might be better off: we'd have lower competition for a conference championship. That matters a lot if the 12-team playoff gets approved.
(07-26-2021 10:51 AM)OKIcat Wrote: [ -> ] (07-26-2021 10:40 AM)robertfoshizzle Wrote: [ -> ] (07-26-2021 10:23 AM)BearcatMan Wrote: [ -> ] (07-26-2021 10:18 AM)UCbball21 Wrote: [ -> ] (07-26-2021 10:14 AM)BearcatMan Wrote: [ -> ]That's because we all understand that would be absolute lunacy.
Agreed, Cincy to the B1G is a non-starter. Absolutely zero percent chance.
The SEC pundits have always thought more highly of Cincy than the B1G pundits. I think Finebaum and co. see the value of having another major program in Ohio but OSU and the other B1G schools that recruit in Ohio would never allow it to happen.
That's because the SEC, by and large, has two programs per state and see it as a benefit, not a negative. The Big 10 is the exact opposite, the only states with multiple state schools are Michigan and Indiana, and even that is due to historical attachment early on (because Purdue would absolutely not be a Big Ten type school now)...hell, if not for a businessman donating land for a nice tax credit, it would've been Indiana and Indiana State, and Purdue wouldn't even be a thing. We should all be blaming the University of Chicago honestly...if they were still in the league, I would venture a guess that Pitt and Cincinnati would've had a MUCH higher likelihood of being a part of it all.
Illinois also with Northwestern.
Northwestern is private so MI and IN are the only B10 states with two public universities.
Some seem to believe expansion will be a relatively slow process. If the TX/OK move is indeed a done deal, I think phones are ringing right now. Clearly, the B12 went through a thorough examination of many candidate schools a couple of summers ago. Is our case better or worse than at that time? Clearly better.
Ohh, I misread the original post. Didn't catch the "state" schools part.
(07-26-2021 12:27 PM)Captain Bearcat Wrote: [ -> ] (07-26-2021 11:52 AM)BcatMatt13 Wrote: [ -> ] (07-26-2021 11:34 AM)Captain Bearcat Wrote: [ -> ] (07-26-2021 10:12 AM)OKIcat Wrote: [ -> ] (07-26-2021 09:12 AM)UCbball21 Wrote: [ -> ]Most articles I've read have Cincy as one of the top Big 12 candidates for expansion. I wouldn't worry about it, our program is peaking at the right time and we have as much or more to offer than any other program in the conversation. BYU is the only program that I view as a clear cut better addition solely in terms of viewership but they also have a ton of headaches as well.
Bolded, I still believe this to be the case too. Sportswriters, and certainly fans of every program, are myopic and believe they know the criteria for expansion.
I still believe the institutional profile matters in this process. Having said that, I think Louisville was the exception in that regard but winning an NCAA championship and New Year's Day bowl in short succession and building new athletic facilities faster than Amazon puts up warehouses, enabled U of L to catch an express train during a realignment crisis.
With no disrespect to these institutions, serious questions have to be asked about places such as Boise and Memphis (historically, Houston too) in terms of academic and research reputations. Cincinnati checks a lot of boxes and Fickell's ascent is timely. BYU may check a few more boxes in terms of holding a somewhat unique national following. Again, no replacing TX and OK but Cincy and BYU would both be respected additions.
The good news? TX/OK appears to be a done deal now and this may become yet another express train before this week passes.
I'm not worried at all.
UC's conference situation can't get any worse.
We have no in-conference rivals. It's a 2-bid basketball league. The media contract pays only 15% of our budget. The football competition is decent, but we rarely get an in-conference matchup that anyone (nationally OR locally) cares about. What can we possibly lose?
We could go sideways, but we can't go down.
There's also a possibility of going up. I'll be tickled pink if we get to play Kansas and West Virginia every year.
It can get worse in one way. Say they add teams from the AAC but not UC…
Unlikely to happen but its possible
I don't view that as worse.
Even if the Big 12 adds Houston and Memphis, is UC really much worse off?
We'd still not have any in-conference rivals. We'd still be in a 2-bid basketball conference. The TV money would be slightly smaller, but it'd still be miniscule.
If anything, UC might be better off: we'd have lower competition for a conference championship. That matters a lot if the 12-team playoff gets approved.
We'd get UAB and North Texas on the schedule every year, too. Woot!
(07-26-2021 10:51 AM)Captain Bearcat Wrote: [ -> ] (07-26-2021 10:23 AM)BearcatMan Wrote: [ -> ] (07-26-2021 10:18 AM)UCbball21 Wrote: [ -> ] (07-26-2021 10:14 AM)BearcatMan Wrote: [ -> ] (07-26-2021 10:11 AM)Captain Bearcat Wrote: [ -> ]There's a poll on the main forum about who the Big 10 should add. They include 16 teams as possibilities, but UC is not on the list:
https://csnbbs.com/thread-925640.html
That's because we all understand that would be absolute lunacy.
Agreed, Cincy to the B1G is a non-starter. Absolutely zero percent chance.
The SEC pundits have always thought more highly of Cincy than the B1G pundits. I think Finebaum and co. see the value of having another major program in Ohio but OSU and the other B1G schools that recruit in Ohio would never allow it to happen.
That's because the SEC, by and large, has two programs per state and see it as a benefit, not a negative. The Big 10 is the exact opposite, the only states with multiple state schools are Michigan and Indiana, and even that is due to historical attachment early on (because Purdue would absolutely not be a Big Ten type school now)...hell, if not for a businessman donating land for a nice tax credit, it would've been Indiana and Indiana State, and Purdue wouldn't even be a thing. We should all be blaming the University of Chicago honestly...if they were still in the league, I would venture a guess that Pitt and Cincinnati would've had a MUCH higher likelihood of being a part of it all.
Purdue is a more stereotypical Big 10 school than Indiana.
Purdue is the land grant school. Purdue has more students and a (slightly) larger endowment than IU. Purdue is ranked higher in US News. Purdue is much higher ranked in research (#83 worldwide in the Leiden ranking vs #214 for Indiana). Even in research funding (which heavily favors universities with med schools), they are roughly even.
Indiana is more or less a fine arts school with a med school attached. Sort of like Cincinnati, actually. Very different from the stereotypical Big Ten school.
The "businessman offering a nice tax credit" was in 1869. It was ancient history by the time the Big Ten was formed.
The SEC usually had 2 schools per state because most Southern states designated 2 flagships: one is engineering/ag, and the other is liberal arts. Most Northern states developed one massive flagship campus. It was just 2 different ways of thinking about how education should be organized. (the south/north split isn't complete: Tennessee, Florida, and Arkansas built one flagship, while Iowa, Michigan, and Indiana split theirs in 2).
Correct...I was more saying that the formation of Purdue was a fluke, whereas Indiana State would've been the other option (to show how unlikely that would've been). Hell, even Michigan State took 50 years to become a Big Ten member from formation...the Big Ten has consistently be VERY hesitant to even consider multiple teams from a state, let alone add them in.
(07-26-2021 09:12 AM)UCbball21 Wrote: [ -> ] (07-26-2021 08:59 AM)Cat-Man Wrote: [ -> ] (07-26-2021 08:44 AM)UCBearcatlawjd2 Wrote: [ -> ]I think people underestimate Kansas basketball’s value in the streaming world. That is a top five basketball brand. All it takes is to hide a few games behind a paywall service you have a whole bunch of subscribers.
I think we to start thinking in terms of fam bases and fan base potential. I think the Big Ten and Kansas are a great fit. Colorado or Iowa State would make sense too.
This is the statement that worries me the most in all of this. I've read A LOT of national articles in the past 4-5 days, and the one disturbing theme I've noticed is that UC is not 1 or 2 or sometimes 3 on most people's list of expansion candidates. Primarily it's been Houston, Memphis, UCF and BYU. (and a few of the Big12 leftovers automatically jump in front of us). The one common theme to all of them, is the market/fanbase potential. On field success is secondary.
I'm starting to think that a Big 12 implosion and the AAC gobbling up their leftovers, may be the best option for UC at this point.
Most articles I've read have Cincy as one of the top Big 12 candidates for expansion. I wouldn't worry about it, our program is peaking at the right time and we have as much or more to offer than any other program in the conversation. BYU is the only program that I view as a clear cut better addition solely in terms of viewership but they also have a ton of headaches as well.
i see Cincy referenced a lot but the headscratcher to me is Houston. i don't get the love for that program. That haven't shown anything in football of late, and they are good for bball but can they survive Kelvin's retirement (likely to happen sooner vs. later). i don't know what the remaining b12 members value most, but if it's maintaining relevance, adding cincy and ucf to get to 10 or Memphis and another program to get to 12 would make a lot more sense. in all frankness, Cincy, UCF and Memphis have largely been the top non-p5 performers of late. i would be very curious what the rationale would be if they expanded and went in a different direction.
(07-26-2021 12:45 PM)rath v2.0 Wrote: [ -> ] (07-26-2021 12:27 PM)Captain Bearcat Wrote: [ -> ] (07-26-2021 11:52 AM)BcatMatt13 Wrote: [ -> ] (07-26-2021 11:34 AM)Captain Bearcat Wrote: [ -> ] (07-26-2021 10:12 AM)OKIcat Wrote: [ -> ]Bolded, I still believe this to be the case too. Sportswriters, and certainly fans of every program, are myopic and believe they know the criteria for expansion.
I still believe the institutional profile matters in this process. Having said that, I think Louisville was the exception in that regard but winning an NCAA championship and New Year's Day bowl in short succession and building new athletic facilities faster than Amazon puts up warehouses, enabled U of L to catch an express train during a realignment crisis.
With no disrespect to these institutions, serious questions have to be asked about places such as Boise and Memphis (historically, Houston too) in terms of academic and research reputations. Cincinnati checks a lot of boxes and Fickell's ascent is timely. BYU may check a few more boxes in terms of holding a somewhat unique national following. Again, no replacing TX and OK but Cincy and BYU would both be respected additions.
The good news? TX/OK appears to be a done deal now and this may become yet another express train before this week passes.
I'm not worried at all.
UC's conference situation can't get any worse.
We have no in-conference rivals. It's a 2-bid basketball league. The media contract pays only 15% of our budget. The football competition is decent, but we rarely get an in-conference matchup that anyone (nationally OR locally) cares about. What can we possibly lose?
We could go sideways, but we can't go down.
There's also a possibility of going up. I'll be tickled pink if we get to play Kansas and West Virginia every year.
It can get worse in one way. Say they add teams from the AAC but not UC…
Unlikely to happen but its possible
I don't view that as worse.
Even if the Big 12 adds Houston and Memphis, is UC really much worse off?
We'd still not have any in-conference rivals. We'd still be in a 2-bid basketball conference. The TV money would be slightly smaller, but it'd still be miniscule.
If anything, UC might be better off: we'd have lower competition for a conference championship. That matters a lot if the 12-team playoff gets approved.
We'd get UAB and North Texas on the schedule every year, too. Woot!
Is that any worse than SMU and Tulsa? Maybe to some people it is, but to me it's just *meh*
(07-26-2021 01:04 PM)eroc Wrote: [ -> ]i see Cincy referenced a lot but the headscratcher to me is Houston. i don't get the love for that program. That haven't shown anything in football of late, and they are good for bball but can they survive Kelvin's retirement (likely to happen sooner vs. later). i don't know what the remaining b12 members value most, but if it's maintaining relevance, adding cincy and ucf to get to 10 or Memphis and another program to get to 12 would make a lot more sense. in all frankness, Cincy, UCF and Memphis have largely been the top non-p5 performers of late. i would be very curious what the rationale would be if they expanded and went in a different direction.
Houston media market = #8
UCF media market (Orlando)=#18
Cincinnati media market = #37
Memphis Media market = #51 (this one I don't get. I suppose they could tap into #28 Nashville market, but you would think that would be more UT territory)
(07-26-2021 01:05 PM)Captain Bearcat Wrote: [ -> ] (07-26-2021 12:45 PM)rath v2.0 Wrote: [ -> ] (07-26-2021 12:27 PM)Captain Bearcat Wrote: [ -> ] (07-26-2021 11:52 AM)BcatMatt13 Wrote: [ -> ] (07-26-2021 11:34 AM)Captain Bearcat Wrote: [ -> ]I'm not worried at all.
UC's conference situation can't get any worse.
We have no in-conference rivals. It's a 2-bid basketball league. The media contract pays only 15% of our budget. The football competition is decent, but we rarely get an in-conference matchup that anyone (nationally OR locally) cares about. What can we possibly lose?
We could go sideways, but we can't go down.
There's also a possibility of going up. I'll be tickled pink if we get to play Kansas and West Virginia every year.
It can get worse in one way. Say they add teams from the AAC but not UC…
Unlikely to happen but its possible
I don't view that as worse.
Even if the Big 12 adds Houston and Memphis, is UC really much worse off?
We'd still not have any in-conference rivals. We'd still be in a 2-bid basketball conference. The TV money would be slightly smaller, but it'd still be miniscule.
If anything, UC might be better off: we'd have lower competition for a conference championship. That matters a lot if the 12-team playoff gets approved.
We'd get UAB and North Texas on the schedule every year, too. Woot!
Is that any worse than SMU and Tulsa? Maybe to some people it is, but to me it's just *meh*
It would be sorta like adding 3 more Tulsa’s and ECU’s with no premier opponents.
AAC fever....catch it.
When you look at UC UCF UH Memphis over the last 10 or 20 years in FB (which drives the bus), BB, Academics, etc. we are at the top of the pack.
If you use ancient history pick Tulane as they were once in The SEC as was Suwannee (Univ. of The South).
(07-26-2021 01:26 PM)Cat-Man Wrote: [ -> ] (07-26-2021 01:04 PM)eroc Wrote: [ -> ]i see Cincy referenced a lot but the headscratcher to me is Houston. i don't get the love for that program. That haven't shown anything in football of late, and they are good for bball but can they survive Kelvin's retirement (likely to happen sooner vs. later). i don't know what the remaining b12 members value most, but if it's maintaining relevance, adding cincy and ucf to get to 10 or Memphis and another program to get to 12 would make a lot more sense. in all frankness, Cincy, UCF and Memphis have largely been the top non-p5 performers of late. i would be very curious what the rationale would be if they expanded and went in a different direction.
Houston media market = #8
UCF media market (Orlando)=#18
Cincinnati media market = #37
Memphis Media market = #51 (this one I don't get. I suppose they could tap into #28 Nashville market, but you would think that would be more UT territory)
Also Cincinnati and Houston are schools that Big 12 presidents can mostly regard as academic peers.
Memphis and UCF are a definite step below academically.
Endowment Size in Millions
Kansas - 1,820.0
Baylor - 1,710.0
TCU - 1,710.0
Cincinnati - 1,453.0
Texas Tech - 1,320.0
Iowa State - 1,102.0
Houston - 959.8
Oklahoma State - 756.5
West Virginia - 589.8
Kansas State - 510.3
Memphis - 223.4
UCF - 164.7
I think it's pretty unlikely we end up with a worse roster of conference mates than we currently have. Too many moving parts, and none of the tagalong 8 bring enough eyeballs to be slam dunk additions to current P5 conferences. We'll either end up in the Big 12 with the leftovers and the best of G5, stay in the AAC with 1-5 additions from the Big 12 or MWC, or go to the ACC. ACC is preferred, but the other two options should at least give us a modest raise in TV money and some better bowl tie-ins. Now if we had never recovered from the Tuberville era in football, I would be very concerned. The timing for us is just about perfect.
The only scenario I see where we end up worse off is if this leads to a complete breakaway from FBS, in which case we could be screwed. If the SEC and company break away completely, I could see them shedding the bottom 3rd of the P5 completely. That means anyone on this list that isn't in the top 30 or so and/or isn't a big brand would also need to worry:
https://sports.usatoday.com/ncaa/finances
Something interesting to note about athletic budgets -- Kansas has a huge budget considering their crappy football and mediocre Big 12 contract. That's one reason why I wouldn't completely count Kansas out of any PAC, Big Ten, or ACC rumors. Football drives the bus, but they are one of the few basketball brands big enough to add value on the TV side. Kansas is $20-$30 million ahead of WVU, Kansas State, Texas Tech, Iowa State, and Oklahoma State, which is a massive difference.
This may sound crazy, but unless the ACC/BIG comes calling, I hope the American is the aggressor in expansion. We all hate the bottom dwellers of the league, but really, we've had a team in the top 10 quite often the last 5-6 years. Every league has the bottom dwellers, ours just come with 7,000 fans in attendance (haha).
I think Kansas and Iowa State go to the BIG. Seems like a logical fit.
An American with WVU, TCU, OKST, KSU, TT and Baylor would be a very good conference and most likely the best case scenario. It'd be a hell of a baseball conference too!
(07-26-2021 01:44 PM)Bearcat25 Wrote: [ -> ]This may sound crazy, but unless the ACC/BIG comes calling, I hope the American is the aggressor in expansion. We all hate the bottom dwellers of the league, but really, we've had a team in the top 10 quite often the last 5-6 years. Every league has the bottom dwellers, ours just come with 7,000 fans in attendance (haha).
I think Kansas and Iowa State go to the BIG. Seems like a logical fit.
An American with WVU, TCU, OKST, KSU, TT and Baylor would be a very good conference and most likely the best case scenario. It'd be a hell of a baseball conference too!
I agree that the BIG will take Kansas and Iowa State. I also think we are going to miss out on the ACC with them standing pat or adding West Virginia. The PAC has a big desire to get into the Texas media and recruiting market so I expect two moves out of TCU, Texas Tech, or Houston to land there. So with six teams jumping ship, the vote to disband the Big 12 would be at least 6 to 4.
Does Cincinnati want to jump to the remnants of the Big 12 when you have so many of the remaining members looking for a ticket out?
The remaining teams are AAC bound.