(07-26-2021 08:58 PM)stpnum4 Wrote: [ -> ] (07-26-2021 08:38 PM)geef Wrote: [ -> ] (07-26-2021 08:22 PM)stpnum4 Wrote: [ -> ] (07-26-2021 07:18 PM)geef Wrote: [ -> ] (07-26-2021 06:58 PM)UCBearcatlawjd2 Wrote: [ -> ]UC has by far the best athletics profile over the last 20 plus years of the schools not in the power five. BYU would be second. Houston would be third.
UCF football is good enough. Colorado State has good facilities. I am not sure anyone else as the profile that fits. Boise is interesting based on 20 years of being the dominant western team not in a power league but I believe the rest of their profile lacks. Others like UNLV or SDSU might get a look.
That's about right. It's pretty strange that USF is rarely mentioned - they certainly haven't utilized Big East/ AAC membership to continue to elevate their product. SDSU feels like they're in the same place we were when the Big East dissolved. If they had another five years, and a new stadium to go with an improving academic profile, they'd be a more enticing candidate. CSU is a wild card. They have a beautiful new stadium, and they're in a rapidly-growing state. I wonder how much that will be taken into account, particularly when you put them next to an Iowa State, KSU, or WVU, for example - all in states with flat or declining populations....
SDSU has a new stadium, it's currently under construction.
Sorry - that wasn't well stated. If they had that lined up a few years ago, with some early success, they'd be well positioned. The fact that they have the new stadium, which I believe is being built in conjunction with an expanded campus, is impressive.
SDSU is interesting. If they could have consistently gotten past Boise in the MWC they would be viewed much better. It looks like a really nice place to go to school.
You're thinking of UC-San Diego. That's in La Jolla, right on the beach. Beautiful setting.
SDSU is about 10 miles inland. Where the beach life starts to transition to dessert. It's a lower-middle income neighborhood in the poorest major US city.
SDSU is a lot like UC was in the 90s: a commuter campus in a rough neighborhood that's just starting to transition to a residential campus (except it has SoCal traffic). Every effort they've made to become more residential has been opposed & delayed (and frequently canceled) by local NIMBY's.
I taught at SDSU until a few years ago. About half my students drove to campus. I even had a few students living 45 minutes away in Mexico (even though they were Americans) to save money.
SDSU's also got a lot of the strengths of UC: a huge local alumni base, big city amenities to attract people, and a strong basketball program with top-30 attendance.
The top AAC schools will NEVER allow the addition of any Big 12 schools... because the smart thing is to have the top AAC schools join the Big 12. We would keep the Big 12 branding, and wouldn't have to continue diluting our payout with the likes of ECU, Tulsa, Tulane, etc.
Hopefully we are invited to the ACC soon, but if not, the Big 12 would be a huge improvement. The lowest tier of the new Big 12 will be tremendously better than the lowest tier of the AAC.
(07-27-2021 02:31 PM)Captain Bearcat Wrote: [ -> ] (07-26-2021 08:58 PM)stpnum4 Wrote: [ -> ] (07-26-2021 08:38 PM)geef Wrote: [ -> ] (07-26-2021 08:22 PM)stpnum4 Wrote: [ -> ] (07-26-2021 07:18 PM)geef Wrote: [ -> ]That's about right. It's pretty strange that USF is rarely mentioned - they certainly haven't utilized Big East/ AAC membership to continue to elevate their product. SDSU feels like they're in the same place we were when the Big East dissolved. If they had another five years, and a new stadium to go with an improving academic profile, they'd be a more enticing candidate. CSU is a wild card. They have a beautiful new stadium, and they're in a rapidly-growing state. I wonder how much that will be taken into account, particularly when you put them next to an Iowa State, KSU, or WVU, for example - all in states with flat or declining populations....
SDSU has a new stadium, it's currently under construction.
Sorry - that wasn't well stated. If they had that lined up a few years ago, with some early success, they'd be well positioned. The fact that they have the new stadium, which I believe is being built in conjunction with an expanded campus, is impressive.
SDSU is interesting. If they could have consistently gotten past Boise in the MWC they would be viewed much better. It looks like a really nice place to go to school.
You're thinking of UC-San Diego. That's in La Jolla, right on the beach. Beautiful setting.
SDSU is about 10 miles inland. Where the beach life starts to transition to dessert. It's a lower-middle income neighborhood in the poorest major US city.
SDSU is a lot like UC was in the 90s: a commuter campus in a rough neighborhood that's just starting to transition to a residential campus (except it has SoCal traffic). Every effort they've made to become more residential has been opposed & delayed (and frequently canceled) by local NIMBY's.
I taught at SDSU until a few years ago. About half my students drove to campus. I even had a few students living 45 minutes away in Mexico (even though they were Americans) to save money.
SDSU's also got a lot of the strengths of UC: a huge local alumni base, big city amenities to attract people, and a strong basketball program with top-30 attendance.
I'm definately not thinking of UC-San Diego, which is a great school. However, La Jolla is super congested and expensive. Plus they have no athletics culture.
SDSU has really separated itself from the rest of the CSU system as one of the big in-demand schools in the state. It used to be UC system vs CSU. Now for admissions selectivity, it's more coastal CA vs inland CA, regardless of system.
Back on topic, college football doesn't move the needle in California like elsewhere. I was listening to Petros (played at USC) on the radio yesterday and he declared USC football dead. Said it was the same as Nebraska football and blamed the administration for killing the program. He was predicting an empty Coliseum for the season after they lose to SJSU.
It seems like USC has more cred as a blueblood outside of the region than in LA. It's fascinating to to witness and it highlights some issues within the PAC12. The disparity between what you think USC is and what you see when you are actually in LA is quite large. Perhaps the Rams being in LA has hurt USC.
(07-27-2021 02:16 PM)BearcatMan Wrote: [ -> ] (07-27-2021 01:42 PM)rath v2.0 Wrote: [ -> ]Aaaaand, WVU pushing to get into the AAC.
If that works, could be awful for UC for multiple reasons.
Just so I'm clear, you mean the ACC not the AAC, correct? I mean, I'm pretty sure WVU has wanted into the ACC since 1953 lol.
ACC. Sorry for the confusion. Bad thumbs...
I’d hate to see them get that because it would close our slim opening to the ACC and I’d hate to see the Big12 skip us because they no longer needed a travel partner for WVU
(07-27-2021 01:42 PM)rath v2.0 Wrote: [ -> ]Aaaaand, WVU pushing to get into the ACC.
If that works, could be awful for UC for multiple reasons.
Fixed it for you.
Of course they are begging for the ACC to take them at this moment. The ACC is always where they wanted to be and now it is the last-boat as a second conference sinks underneath them.
Last evening on the WVU radio-sports show, they were grasping at any straw that might help WVU gain entrance into the ACC...including Whit Babcock.
Yes, that's right, the same Whit Babcock who was an assistant AD at WVU before becoming the AD at Cincinnati...before jumping to take the AD gig at VaTech. Interesting that they (WVU) think Babcock will help
them and not us. (Which, given Whit's job performance here might actually be accurate...) But still...of course, WVU is angling HARD to land in the ACC.
(And I hope we are too...)
https://247sports.com/college/kansas-sta...2bB7XkPpG8
"Behind the scenes, sources tell GoPowercat that Kansas State is working to preserve the Big 12 Conference through expansion, with schools such as Cincinnati, Memphis, Central Florida, and Houston being immediate targets."
(07-27-2021 03:06 PM)Cataclysmo Wrote: [ -> ]https://247sports.com/college/kansas-sta...2bB7XkPpG8
"Behind the scenes, sources tell GoPowercat that Kansas State is working to preserve the Big 12 Conference through expansion, with schools such as Cincinnati, Memphis, Central Florida, and Houston being immediate targets."
Gregory Williams: Part II.
(07-27-2021 03:07 PM)BearcatJerry Wrote: [ -> ] (07-27-2021 03:06 PM)Cataclysmo Wrote: [ -> ]https://247sports.com/college/kansas-sta...2bB7XkPpG8
"Behind the scenes, sources tell GoPowercat that Kansas State is working to preserve the Big 12 Conference through expansion, with schools such as Cincinnati, Memphis, Central Florida, and Houston being immediate targets."
Gregory Williams: Part II.
Kansas St has no other option. They are the least desirable of the Tagalong 8. They bring nothing to any other conference.
More to Rath's concern (that WVU might ace us out of the ACC)...
I think the one to be most worried about, actually, is NAVY. It is clear that the big ACC domino that needs to fall FIRST is going to be Notre Dame joining in FB. And I think that is likely to happen given (a) ND played an ACC conference slate last year (thereby easing the idea of losing "independence"), and (b) it looks like the fundamental situation has changed. The calculus now is different than it was last week.
IF ND joins the ACC in football (the biggest, blue-chip remaining on the board), THEN ND will likely have a huge input on who would be "#16." I think ND likely suggests Navy (FB) to the ACC to be added alongside them: National Brand, it's a long-standing ND rivalry that could be carried into the Conference slate, and Navy is...after all...located in the ACC footprint and would be a hugely easy add.
I think if Navy isn't the choice, then ND MAY well ask for UC: good basketball, Brian Kelly may pull for us (as might Whit Babcock), existing rivalries with Louisville and maybe Pittsburgh... Boston College would be a hate-fest... We don't carry the baggage that WVU does.
But I'd be really worried that Navy has the inside track on that 16th slot.
Now...if the ACC goes beyond 16? Anyone's guess...
(07-27-2021 03:16 PM)BearcatJerry Wrote: [ -> ]More to Rath's concern (that WVU might ace us out of the ACC)...
I think the one to be most worried about, actually, is NAVY. It is clear that the big ACC domino that needs to fall FIRST is going to be Notre Dame joining in FB. And I think that is likely to happen given (a) ND played an ACC conference slate last year (thereby easing the idea of losing "independence"), and (b) it looks like the fundamental situation has changed. The calculus now is different than it was last week.
IF ND joins the ACC in football (the biggest, blue-chip remaining on the board), THEN ND will likely have a huge input on who would be "#16." I think ND likely suggests Navy (FB) to the ACC to be added alongside them: National Brand, it's a long-standing ND rivalry that could be carried into the Conference slate, and Navy is...after all...located in the ACC footprint and would be a hugely easy add.
I think if Navy isn't the choice, then ND MAY well ask for UC: good basketball, Brian Kelly may pull for us (as might Whit Babcock), existing rivalries with Louisville and maybe Pittsburgh... Boston College would be a hate-fest... We don't carry the baggage that WVU does.
But I'd be really worried that Navy has the inside track on that 16th slot.
Now...if the ACC goes beyond 16? Anyone's guess...
Navy would get killed in the ACC. I think its far more likely that they go independent than try to play in the ACC. They just can't recruit to that level.
(07-27-2021 03:34 PM)skylinecat Wrote: [ -> ] (07-27-2021 03:16 PM)BearcatJerry Wrote: [ -> ]More to Rath's concern (that WVU might ace us out of the ACC)...
I think the one to be most worried about, actually, is NAVY. It is clear that the big ACC domino that needs to fall FIRST is going to be Notre Dame joining in FB. And I think that is likely to happen given (a) ND played an ACC conference slate last year (thereby easing the idea of losing "independence"), and (b) it looks like the fundamental situation has changed. The calculus now is different than it was last week.
IF ND joins the ACC in football (the biggest, blue-chip remaining on the board), THEN ND will likely have a huge input on who would be "#16." I think ND likely suggests Navy (FB) to the ACC to be added alongside them: National Brand, it's a long-standing ND rivalry that could be carried into the Conference slate, and Navy is...after all...located in the ACC footprint and would be a hugely easy add.
I think if Navy isn't the choice, then ND MAY well ask for UC: good basketball, Brian Kelly may pull for us (as might Whit Babcock), existing rivalries with Louisville and maybe Pittsburgh... Boston College would be a hate-fest... We don't carry the baggage that WVU does.
But I'd be really worried that Navy has the inside track on that 16th slot.
Now...if the ACC goes beyond 16? Anyone's guess...
Navy would get killed in the ACC. I think its far more likely that they go independent than try to play in the ACC. They just can't recruit to that level.
They'd get nailed against the TOP of the ACC, but I think they would (on average) be rather competitive with the middle to bottom of the ACC. The entire ACC is not Clemson and/or Florida State. And, with the abandonment of "Divisions" Navy might play (for instance) ONE game against Notre Dame (top-level), another game or two against a VaTech/Virginia type (2nd level), and then load up on Boston College/Duke/Wake Forest/Pittsburgh/Syracuse level for the rest.
Of course, Navy could go "independent" or turn down the ACC. The Air Force Academy turned down the B12 back in 2012 reportedly because they didn't think they could be competitive in that Conference. (Who knows what they say, if asked, now...) Navy doesn't "need" the media dollars like other schools, so it's a question of access.
I'm just saying I think Navy is in a better position vis a vis the ACC than WVU is.
(07-27-2021 03:06 PM)Cataclysmo Wrote: [ -> ]https://247sports.com/college/kansas-sta...2bB7XkPpG8
"Behind the scenes, sources tell GoPowercat that Kansas State is working to preserve the Big 12 Conference through expansion, with schools such as Cincinnati, Memphis, Central Florida, and Houston being immediate targets."
Totally makes sense. That give the Big 12 a full 12 teams, adds great football and basketball programs, excellent academic programs and a HUGE TV audience. I truly don't see any other option for them.
I think the issue of whether AAC schools would leave for the B12 or vice versa depends on who [and how many] the leftovers are. Also, what is the stability of a reconditioned B12? 2025 brings another round of bailouts? In any event, I do appreciate that we are benefiting from two sides at work on this - a motivated conference commissioner to build the conference up and university leadership that is looking out for its own best interests.
Yeah, if I were a fan of a remaining Big 12 school I would be praying for a lifeboat from another conference but I don't see it happening. The Pac 12 would be foolish to take on that many added teams for what would only decrease their tv payout per team and apart from one or two schools finding a home somewhere (like OK State or Kansas) the rest are screwed into calling up the next best programs from the bullpen. The Big 8 are basically what the core members of the American (UC, USF, Uconn) were back in 2012, but with enough teams to actually have a fighting chance at retaining some of the B12 prestige.
4 of Cincinnati, UCF, Houston, Memphis, BYU, Boise, USF, or Colorado State would fit that bill.
Sent from my SM-G991U using Tapatalk
Wait, I have yet to hear why everyone else has to go get somebody just because the SEC did.
If you want an interesting perspective on the realignment arms race, listen to Hour 2 of today's Dan Lebatard Show. His new company's CEO is John Skipper, the former ESPN president, so he has first hand experience on how all of this works from a media standpoint. It was a very enlightening listen and a history lesson about the last round of realignment nonsense.
Annd, right on point...
Quote:
The biggest question currently looming over the remaining members of the beleaguered Big 12 Conference boils down to a single word — unity.
Will they work together to rebuild the league with a collection of new schools? Or will they go rogue and seek entrance into a different power conference without wasting a moment’s thought on what happens to their traditional rivals?
Big 12 commissioner Bob Bowlsby has said they will face challenges “head-on” because they “have confidence that the Big 12 will continue to be a vibrant and successful entity in the near term and into the foreseeable future.” But presidents from across the conference issued statements on Monday that pledged varying degrees of solidarity, which means the question of unity will for now go unanswered.
One thing is clear: at least some of the Big 12’s remaining teams have reached out to the Pac-12 to inquire about future membership in that conference. Pac-12 commissioner George Kliavkoff said Tuesday that “we’ve already had significant inbound interest from many schools” about possible expansion.
He went on to say the Pac-12 won’t feel pressure to expand just because that’s what is happening in the SEC, but it would be foolish to rule out the possibility.
Perhaps the two conferences could merge into a 20-team league or agree to sell their future TV rights as a package.
For now, that is nothing more than speculation, which leaves the remaining eight schools in the Big 12 with some uncomfortable unknowns.
There is one big reason why the Big 12’s remaining eight teams will be motivated to present a united front, at least in the short term.
They will want to keep collecting lucrative TV payments through 2025, when the Big 12’s grants of rights is set to expire, with Oklahoma and Texas as Big 12 members or force them to pay hefty exit fees on their way to the SEC.
Big 12 teams receive close to $40 million each year from the conference office, with TV revenue serving as the biggest piece of the pay. Four more years of those payments beat just about any other option. But if the Longhorns and Sooners are dead set on leaving earlier than that, which seems like the most likely option, they will have to pay exit fees in upwards of $80 million each to switch leagues.
If the Big 12 is able to collect $160 million from its departing teams, each remaining school would receive $20 million to help with any budget shortfalls they might experience with conference realignment. Or the conference could use those exit fees to entice new members to join them as it looks to grow back to 10-plus teams.
The Big 12 won’t be able to demand the same type of dollar figures without Texas and Oklahoma, but the remaining eight teams have big enough fan bases to command more than less prestigious conferences such as the American and the Mountain West.
In a dream scenario, the Big 12 could expand beyond eight by looking to the west.
The Pac-12 has fallen behind other power conferences in recent years, leaving some to wonder if schools like Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado and Utah would consider a move to the Big 12. Sure, that seems less likely without Oklahoma and Texas in the fold, but it’s within the realm of possibility.
More likely expansion candidates can be found in the American and Mountain West. When the Big 12 vetted expansion candidates five years ago, it considered Air Force, Central Florida, Colorado State, Cincinnati, Houston, Memphis, SMU, South Florida and Tulane, among others.
That conference would be among the nation’s best in basketball and play a fun, competitive brand of football. The conference champion could still make noise in a new College Football Playoff.
Replacing Oklahoma and Texas with those teams wouldn’t command anything near $40 million a year per school in TV money. But maybe $20 million would be on the table?
The AAC reportedly distributes around $7 million to its teams every year. That conference would love to bolster its product by adding any of the Big 12’s remaining teams, but they will likely view joining the American as a last resort. They will if they unite together and try to rebuild the conference, anyway.
But if some of the Big 12’s remaining teams find life rafts to other conferences on their own accord, some teams may have nowhere else to go.
A lot of moving parts to this folks
(07-27-2021 05:53 PM)Bear Catlett Wrote: [ -> ]Wait, I have yet to hear why everyone else has to go get somebody just because the SEC did.
IMO it will become an "arms race" to keep up with the SEC as the NCAA becomes moot. Things could be moving toward a 1 or 2 super-mega-conference model of the biggest brands competing on their own terms for bigly huge money. Everyone left behind will become irrelevant in terms of postion, power/influence, prestige, and financial resources. This won't happen in the immediate short term [1-3 years] but it's all about jockeying for position to keep a seat at the table. The problem is the number of chairs at the table is getting smaller as we speak. As pointed out before, the B1G added Rutgers and Maryland. That will turn out to be a poor move in the long run. Rutgers vs Michigan State? Maryland vs Nebraska? Rutgers vs Maryland [LOL]? Outside of Vandy, consider the weekly marquee games lineup that the SEC can throw out there to the masses to now include Texas and Oklahoma. No other conference comes close. If the B1G can entice a Clemson, FSU, USC, Notre Dame, etc., then you're closing the gap. That's why I don't buy Kansas and Iowa State are even on their radar at this point. This is about survival of the fittest and the FUTURE value of your conference. It's about brand strength now.
If the Big12 doesn't invite Cincinnati, Houston, Memphis and UCF, they're toast. The only team with any national appeal is Kansas - in basketball. None of the 8 are powerhouses in football:
- WVU and TCU used to be, but not now
- Kansas and TTU never was or will be
- KSU, ISU, OSU are competitive
- Baylor was until they got busted for rape
Expand or Die, Big12
(07-27-2021 07:37 PM)mac6115cd Wrote: [ -> ]If the Big12 doesn't invite Cincinnati, Houston, Memphis and UCF, they're toast. The only team with any national appeal is Kansas - in basketball. None of the 8 are powerhouses in football:
- WVU and TCU used to be, but not now
- Kansas and TTU never was or will be
- KSU, ISU, OSU are competitive
- Baylor was until they got busted for rape
Expand or Die, Big12
I get your point, but when were WVU and TCU powers? And, ISU has been competitive for exactly three years. Okie State is the closest to being a power with the T Boone Pickens cash backing the operation.