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(07-25-2021 11:55 AM)rath v2.0 Wrote:  Lol.

B12 now offering to pay TX and OK 1.5 shares...will go from like $38 million to $55 million annually...the other 8 will take about a $5 million pay cut to $33 million a year to fund it. Plus they are offering conference control measures regarding agreements and some veto power.

We all fall for this B12 drama every 2-3 years.

If I were a bettin man, I’d call this option The Chalk.

(07-25-2021 01:43 PM)Billy_Bearcat Wrote:  

(07-25-2021 11:55 AM)rath v2.0 Wrote:  Lol.

B12 now offering to pay TX and OK 1.5 shares...will go from like $38 million to $55 million annually...the other 8 will take about a $5 million pay cut to $33 million a year to fund it. Plus they are offering conference control measures regarding agreements and some veto power.

We all fall for this B12 drama every 2-3 years.

If I were a bettin man, I’d call this option The Chalk.

(07-25-2021 11:55 AM)rath v2.0 Wrote:  Lol.

B12 now offering to pay TX and OK 1.5 shares...will go from like $38 million to $55 million annually...the other 8 will take about a $5 million pay cut to $33 million a year to fund it. Plus they are offering conference control measures regarding agreements and some veto power.

We all fall for this B12 drama every 2-3 years.

They've also agreed to officially change the name to "The Big 2 Conference".

I'd crawl over broken glass to be in that deal

Sent from my SM-G991U using Tapatalk

i can’t see any reason why the B10 would want ISU. Doesn’t add a thing.

Kansas, i can kinda see because they are a basketball blue blood and a national brand.

So, I'm not given to be an optimist... That being said, I need to make doubly sure that I am framing the questions correctly when it comes to situations like this.

1) For good or for ill, this is NOT happening to UC. Things MAY open up for UC in the next couple of days but right now our conference picture and media $$$ are stable. As opposed to WVU, Kansas, K-State, Iowa State, Baylor, Texas Tech, OK State, and TCU; those schools and fanbases are sweating it heavy right now. Even if the PAC 12 swoops in and takes some of these schools, the revenue picture for these schools is suddenly really uncertain because the PAC's media deal is something like half of what they are getting now. As paltry as the AAC deal is (in comparison to the Power world), we're at least guaranteed $8 Million for the next several years. And if things do open up, we will only go UP, not down.

2) The "Dream shot" (for me) is the ACC inviting UC to come along with Notre Dame. Yes, I wish that Ohio State and the Legislature would raise hell for UC to get a helping-hand to the Big Ten, but that ISN'T happening. Ohio State is not a benevolent "big brother" who helps out their siblings: they are a tyrannical brother who would hold their siblings' heads under the water until the struggle stops. But a ticket to the ACC might make the most sense and would bring us back to an eastern-centric conference. I don't know how likely that dream is, but that's my dream right now: ACC.

3) I don't know how happy I am with the possibility of joining a broken Big XII. Sure, traveling to Stillwater to play Okie State beats the hell out of traveling to Tulsa. For me, that decision HAS to be about $$$. If it makes financial sense then we go. If it doesn't? Then hold pat.

i see Kansas and the B10 alot in terms of rumors and speculation and i know why but two things i'm curious about:

1) Why is there no Kansas to the Pac 12 buzz? i know fball drives the bus but if that's the case Kansas wouldn't be considered as a candidate for any p5 expansion. i know they want to get into the central time zone, which they can do with Kansas, and if you want the TX market, you can pick a TX team to pair with them and get to 14. i would figure that they are likely to be a free agent if ou/tx depart so why not them.

2) Why are the three tx schools grouped together when talking about expansion. i don't know if they have a choice to travel together and if i get the invite and my TX conference mates do not, i'm not waiting around for their invites that may never arrive. it just seems like an assumption that is being made without any evidence that this will be true.

i don't know if the PAC 12 expands or not but if they do, i'd probably go with two candidates (osu and kansas) or if you want to get into the TX markets specifically either ks or osu and Tech. i don't think you need to get to 16 but you can add to those three candidates with another TX team or isu. if the b12 dissolves, i don't think all the members survive, nor should they.

(07-25-2021 05:52 PM)BearcatJerry Wrote:  So, I'm not given to be an optimist... That being said, I need to make doubly sure that I am framing the questions correctly when it comes to situations like this.

1) For good or for ill, this is NOT happening to UC. Things MAY open up for UC in the next couple of days but right now our conference picture and media $$$ are stable. As opposed to WVU, Kansas, K-State, Iowa State, Baylor, Texas Tech, OK State, and TCU; those schools and fanbases are sweating it heavy right now. Even if the PAC 12 swoops in and takes some of these schools, the revenue picture for these schools is suddenly really uncertain because the PAC's media deal is something like half of what they are getting now. As paltry as the AAC deal is (in comparison to the Power world), we're at least guaranteed $8 Million for the next several years. And if things do open up, we will only go UP, not down.

2) The "Dream shot" (for me) is the ACC inviting UC to come along with Notre Dame. Yes, I wish that Ohio State and the Legislature would raise hell for UC to get a helping-hand to the Big Ten, but that ISN'T happening. Ohio State is not a benevolent "big brother" who helps out their siblings: they are a tyrannical brother who would hold their siblings' heads under the water until the struggle stops. But a ticket to the ACC might make the most sense and would bring us back to an eastern-centric conference. I don't know how likely that dream is, but that's my dream right now: ACC.

3) I don't know how happy I am with the possibility of joining a broken Big XII. Sure, traveling to Stillwater to play Okie State beats the hell out of traveling to Tulsa. For me, that decision HAS to be about $$$. If it makes financial sense then we go. If it doesn't? Then hold pat.

Big12 teams get $38 mill per year in football TV contracts.
AAC teams get $7 mill per year.
These numbers are solid thru 2024-25. $38 mill sounds great to me, considering that UC isn't getting any shoe money right now. UC pays to get a discount from UA for shoes and equipment.
These dollars don't include the CBS megamoney from the NCAA BB tourney from Kansas. WVU is probably going to hold its breathe till it turns blue or the couch it is sitting on explodes in order to keep the Bearcats out of the Big12, but UC in the Big12 makes a lot of cents for everybody. WVU can drive to Nippert games taking buses; it takes an hour for WVU to drive to each of the two airports that they are nearest to.

ND does not want to go anywhere; they want to stay independent.
The Big10 has shown what kind teams they want:
Nebraska (the UCLA of the midwest), Rutgers, and Maryland - all teams that suck in football. At least the Bearcats don't qualify in this category.
The Big12 will probably choose Houston, Memphis, UCF, the Bearcats and one or two other schools out of desperation: UTEP (LOL), BYU, or Boise State.

(07-25-2021 05:52 PM)BearcatJerry Wrote:  So, I'm not given to be an optimist... That being said, I need to make doubly sure that I am framing the questions correctly when it comes to situations like this.

1) For good or for ill, this is NOT happening to UC. Things MAY open up for UC in the next couple of days but right now our conference picture and media $$$ are stable. As opposed to WVU, Kansas, K-State, Iowa State, Baylor, Texas Tech, OK State, and TCU; those schools and fanbases are sweating it heavy right now. Even if the PAC 12 swoops in and takes some of these schools, the revenue picture for these schools is suddenly really uncertain because the PAC's media deal is something like half of what they are getting now. As paltry as the AAC deal is (in comparison to the Power world), we're at least guaranteed $8 Million for the next several years. And if things do open up, we will only go UP, not down.

I don't imagine anyone in the UC AD is sleeping sound these days. Given all the factors - college sports is being disrupted. Granted, AAC contract has another 10 years to it. Still, the whole college sports environment is going to be re-made in the next 3-4 years. Sure, the uncertainty for us is not as great as for the B12 leftovers at this moment; and there are gonna be a lot more cards played - and given our position - we are likely to be re-active as they get played.

ND won’t go anywhere until 2035. They signed as cast iron of an agreement as you can craft with the ACC with penalty provisions that have the effect of strapping a claymore to their lap. If it’s not the ACC, they stay flying solo until then.

Listened to the Pete Thamel/Dan Wetzel podcast this morning during my run. OU and UT are gone, they were just listening to the proposals the conference had so they can say they cooperated with the conference during exit.

Super Conferences are upon us. The B10 has no choice but to respond. None of the remaining B12 schools will result in an increase to the B10. They think the Cali PAC10 schools are a legit option.

Wetzel thinks the BXII should stay pay at 8, or alternatively add 1-2 teams, most notably Houston and one other. Thamel disagrees, he thinks the BXII needs to go to 16 by adding four schools from the AAC and four from the MWC. He sees us as one of the additions. He thinks the conference needs to be bold, alma the Big East from 2005-2011 and play on Thursday and Friday nights and sell itself as the underdog fighting the system.

(07-25-2021 06:00 AM)rath v2.0 Wrote:  I’m still not entirely convinced this isn’t all just the seemingly bi-annual B12 attention and money grab. I’ll believe it when TX and OK are standing at the SEC podium.

You know...

The longer this goes on, the more I'm wondering if this just might be the case.

Justin Williams with a new article this morning.

https://theathletic.com/2729547/2021/07/...222dD2YVL4

(07-26-2021 07:08 AM)CliftonAve Wrote:  Listened to the Pete Thamel/Dan Wetzel podcast this morning during my run. OU and UT are gone, they were just listening to the proposals the conference had so they can say they cooperated with the conference during exit.

Super Conferences are upon us. The B10 has no choice but to respond. None of the remaining B12 schools will result in an increase to the B10. They think the Cali PAC10 schools are a legit option.

Wetzel thinks the BXII should stay pay at 8, or alternatively add 1-2 teams, most notably Houston and one other. Thamel disagrees, he thinks the BXII needs to go to 16 by adding four schools from the AAC and four from the MWC. He sees us as one of the additions. He thinks the conference needs to be bold, alma the Big East from 2005-2011 and play on Thursday and Friday nights and sell itself as the underdog fighting the system.

A big chunk of this is going to be which B12 teams...if the conference doesn't collapse in order to allow all parties to leave without penalty...are left. Besides which, I could see Houston as a target for the PAC to go along with Texas Tech and Okie State if the Pac does go that direction; the PAC isn't going to take Baylor.

If the B12 doesn't collapse completely, I'm not sure Houston really meets their need. If Baylor, Texas Tech, and TCU are still around, I think they're going to look outside Texas first...Cincinnati and Central Florida will be high on that list.

The lesson should be learned: A conference that is dominated by a single state...even one as large as Texas...is inherently unstable. The PAC is also struggling with this in California. The SWC couldn't do it with all Texas teams. The WAC 16 suffered from a lot of problems but the Texas bloc was one of them. The PAC 8, 10, and 12 still wrestles with the California bloc and the insularity that brings. I suspect that the B12 doesn't look immediately at Houston to replace UT.

(07-26-2021 07:45 AM)BearcatJerry Wrote:  

(07-26-2021 07:08 AM)CliftonAve Wrote:  Listened to the Pete Thamel/Dan Wetzel podcast this morning during my run. OU and UT are gone, they were just listening to the proposals the conference had so they can say they cooperated with the conference during exit.

Super Conferences are upon us. The B10 has no choice but to respond. None of the remaining B12 schools will result in an increase to the B10. They think the Cali PAC10 schools are a legit option.

Wetzel thinks the BXII should stay pay at 8, or alternatively add 1-2 teams, most notably Houston and one other. Thamel disagrees, he thinks the BXII needs to go to 16 by adding four schools from the AAC and four from the MWC. He sees us as one of the additions. He thinks the conference needs to be bold, alma the Big East from 2005-2011 and play on Thursday and Friday nights and sell itself as the underdog fighting the system.

A big chunk of this is going to be which B12 teams...if the conference doesn't collapse in order to allow all parties to leave without penalty...are left. Besides which, I could see Houston as a target for the PAC to go along with Texas Tech and Okie State if the Pac does go that direction; the PAC isn't going to take Baylor.

If the B12 doesn't collapse completely, I'm not sure Houston really meets their need. If Baylor, Texas Tech, and TCU are still around, I think they're going to look outside Texas first...Cincinnati and Central Florida will be high on that list.

The lesson should be learned: A conference that is dominated by a single state...even one as large as Texas...is inherently unstable. The PAC is also struggling with this in California. The SWC couldn't do it with all Texas teams. The WAC 16 suffered from a lot of problems but the Texas bloc was one of them. The PAC 8, 10, and 12 still wrestles with the California bloc and the insularity that brings. I suspect that the B12 doesn't look immediately at Houston to replace UT.

Those two do not think the 8 have anywhere to go. Reportedly, over 50% of the BXII media deal is for UT and OU alone. That puts the valuation of the other schools are slightly under $20M per year (depending on the school). If the B10 adds, in their opinion, a Kansas or Iowa State is just not going to be able to justify an increase in the media deal.

(07-26-2021 07:57 AM)CliftonAve Wrote:  

(07-26-2021 07:45 AM)BearcatJerry Wrote:  

(07-26-2021 07:08 AM)CliftonAve Wrote:  Listened to the Pete Thamel/Dan Wetzel podcast this morning during my run. OU and UT are gone, they were just listening to the proposals the conference had so they can say they cooperated with the conference during exit.

Super Conferences are upon us. The B10 has no choice but to respond. None of the remaining B12 schools will result in an increase to the B10. They think the Cali PAC10 schools are a legit option.

Wetzel thinks the BXII should stay pay at 8, or alternatively add 1-2 teams, most notably Houston and one other. Thamel disagrees, he thinks the BXII needs to go to 16 by adding four schools from the AAC and four from the MWC. He sees us as one of the additions. He thinks the conference needs to be bold, alma the Big East from 2005-2011 and play on Thursday and Friday nights and sell itself as the underdog fighting the system.

A big chunk of this is going to be which B12 teams...if the conference doesn't collapse in order to allow all parties to leave without penalty...are left. Besides which, I could see Houston as a target for the PAC to go along with Texas Tech and Okie State if the Pac does go that direction; the PAC isn't going to take Baylor.

If the B12 doesn't collapse completely, I'm not sure Houston really meets their need. If Baylor, Texas Tech, and TCU are still around, I think they're going to look outside Texas first...Cincinnati and Central Florida will be high on that list.

The lesson should be learned: A conference that is dominated by a single state...even one as large as Texas...is inherently unstable. The PAC is also struggling with this in California. The SWC couldn't do it with all Texas teams. The WAC 16 suffered from a lot of problems but the Texas bloc was one of them. The PAC 8, 10, and 12 still wrestles with the California bloc and the insularity that brings. I suspect that the B12 doesn't look immediately at Houston to replace UT.

Those two do not think the 8 have anywhere to go. Reportedly, over 50% of the BXII media deal is for UT and OU alone. That puts the valuation of the other schools are slightly under $20M per year (depending on the school). If the B10 adds, in their opinion, a Kansas or Iowa State is just not going to be able to justify an increase in the media deal.

Part of me wonders if we're in the endgame, where it isn't necessarily about money, but about appearing to be equal. If one conference adds two goliaths, you need to react somehow...if those are the best two (I don't think Iowa State is...), then you go get them to "respond".

(07-26-2021 07:57 AM)CliftonAve Wrote:  

(07-26-2021 07:45 AM)BearcatJerry Wrote:  

(07-26-2021 07:08 AM)CliftonAve Wrote:  Listened to the Pete Thamel/Dan Wetzel podcast this morning during my run. OU and UT are gone, they were just listening to the proposals the conference had so they can say they cooperated with the conference during exit.

Super Conferences are upon us. The B10 has no choice but to respond. None of the remaining B12 schools will result in an increase to the B10. They think the Cali PAC10 schools are a legit option.

Wetzel thinks the BXII should stay pay at 8, or alternatively add 1-2 teams, most notably Houston and one other. Thamel disagrees, he thinks the BXII needs to go to 16 by adding four schools from the AAC and four from the MWC. He sees us as one of the additions. He thinks the conference needs to be bold, alma the Big East from 2005-2011 and play on Thursday and Friday nights and sell itself as the underdog fighting the system.

A big chunk of this is going to be which B12 teams...if the conference doesn't collapse in order to allow all parties to leave without penalty...are left. Besides which, I could see Houston as a target for the PAC to go along with Texas Tech and Okie State if the Pac does go that direction; the PAC isn't going to take Baylor.

If the B12 doesn't collapse completely, I'm not sure Houston really meets their need. If Baylor, Texas Tech, and TCU are still around, I think they're going to look outside Texas first...Cincinnati and Central Florida will be high on that list.

The lesson should be learned: A conference that is dominated by a single state...even one as large as Texas...is inherently unstable. The PAC is also struggling with this in California. The SWC couldn't do it with all Texas teams. The WAC 16 suffered from a lot of problems but the Texas bloc was one of them. The PAC 8, 10, and 12 still wrestles with the California bloc and the insularity that brings. I suspect that the B12 doesn't look immediately at Houston to replace UT.

Those two do not think the 8 have anywhere to go. Reportedly, over 50% of the BXII media deal is for UT and OU alone. That puts the valuation of the other schools are slightly under $20M per year (depending on the school). If the B10 adds, in their opinion, a Kansas or Iowa State is just not going to be able to justify an increase in the media deal.

That's actually why I think UT and OU have a vested interest in blowing up the Conference. Proportionally, they have more to lose in exit fees than the others. I could see them (and ESPN) working very hard to exert whatever influence they have to make the B12 collapse in order to (a) allow UT and OU to get out without penalty, and (b) to allow UT and OU to get out without penalty BEFORE 2025. If ESPN can leverage some of it's other assets to move to take enough of the other B12 assets (relatively small potatoes compared to the penalties OU and UT would pay) and the Conference collapses, then...easy-peasy, everyone walks away (except the couple left out in the cold) and no messy entanglements.

(07-26-2021 08:03 AM)BearcatJerry Wrote:  

(07-26-2021 07:57 AM)CliftonAve Wrote:  

(07-26-2021 07:45 AM)BearcatJerry Wrote:  

(07-26-2021 07:08 AM)CliftonAve Wrote:  Listened to the Pete Thamel/Dan Wetzel podcast this morning during my run. OU and UT are gone, they were just listening to the proposals the conference had so they can say they cooperated with the conference during exit.

Super Conferences are upon us. The B10 has no choice but to respond. None of the remaining B12 schools will result in an increase to the B10. They think the Cali PAC10 schools are a legit option.

Wetzel thinks the BXII should stay pay at 8, or alternatively add 1-2 teams, most notably Houston and one other. Thamel disagrees, he thinks the BXII needs to go to 16 by adding four schools from the AAC and four from the MWC. He sees us as one of the additions. He thinks the conference needs to be bold, alma the Big East from 2005-2011 and play on Thursday and Friday nights and sell itself as the underdog fighting the system.

A big chunk of this is going to be which B12 teams...if the conference doesn't collapse in order to allow all parties to leave without penalty...are left. Besides which, I could see Houston as a target for the PAC to go along with Texas Tech and Okie State if the Pac does go that direction; the PAC isn't going to take Baylor.

If the B12 doesn't collapse completely, I'm not sure Houston really meets their need. If Baylor, Texas Tech, and TCU are still around, I think they're going to look outside Texas first...Cincinnati and Central Florida will be high on that list.

The lesson should be learned: A conference that is dominated by a single state...even one as large as Texas...is inherently unstable. The PAC is also struggling with this in California. The SWC couldn't do it with all Texas teams. The WAC 16 suffered from a lot of problems but the Texas bloc was one of them. The PAC 8, 10, and 12 still wrestles with the California bloc and the insularity that brings. I suspect that the B12 doesn't look immediately at Houston to replace UT.

Those two do not think the 8 have anywhere to go. Reportedly, over 50% of the BXII media deal is for UT and OU alone. That puts the valuation of the other schools are slightly under $20M per year (depending on the school). If the B10 adds, in their opinion, a Kansas or Iowa State is just not going to be able to justify an increase in the media deal.

That's actually why I think UT and OU have a vested interest in blowing up the Conference. Proportionally, they have more to lose in exit fees than the others. I could see them (and ESPN) working very hard to exert whatever influence they have to make the B12 collapse in order to (a) allow UT and OU to get out without penalty, and (b) to allow UT and OU to get out without penalty BEFORE 2025. If ESPN can leverage some of it's other assets to move to take enough of the other B12 assets (relatively small potatoes compared to the penalties OU and UT would pay) and the Conference collapses, then...easy-peasy, everyone walks away (except the couple left out in the cold) and no messy entanglements.

Definitely had crossed my mind too.

(07-26-2021 07:57 AM)CliftonAve Wrote:  

(07-26-2021 07:45 AM)BearcatJerry Wrote:  

(07-26-2021 07:08 AM)CliftonAve Wrote:  Listened to the Pete Thamel/Dan Wetzel podcast this morning during my run. OU and UT are gone, they were just listening to the proposals the conference had so they can say they cooperated with the conference during exit.

Super Conferences are upon us. The B10 has no choice but to respond. None of the remaining B12 schools will result in an increase to the B10. They think the Cali PAC10 schools are a legit option.

Wetzel thinks the BXII should stay pay at 8, or alternatively add 1-2 teams, most notably Houston and one other. Thamel disagrees, he thinks the BXII needs to go to 16 by adding four schools from the AAC and four from the MWC. He sees us as one of the additions. He thinks the conference needs to be bold, alma the Big East from 2005-2011 and play on Thursday and Friday nights and sell itself as the underdog fighting the system.

A big chunk of this is going to be which B12 teams...if the conference doesn't collapse in order to allow all parties to leave without penalty...are left. Besides which, I could see Houston as a target for the PAC to go along with Texas Tech and Okie State if the Pac does go that direction; the PAC isn't going to take Baylor.

If the B12 doesn't collapse completely, I'm not sure Houston really meets their need. If Baylor, Texas Tech, and TCU are still around, I think they're going to look outside Texas first...Cincinnati and Central Florida will be high on that list.

The lesson should be learned: A conference that is dominated by a single state...even one as large as Texas...is inherently unstable. The PAC is also struggling with this in California. The SWC couldn't do it with all Texas teams. The WAC 16 suffered from a lot of problems but the Texas bloc was one of them. The PAC 8, 10, and 12 still wrestles with the California bloc and the insularity that brings. I suspect that the B12 doesn't look immediately at Houston to replace UT.

Those two do not think the 8 have anywhere to go. Reportedly, over 50% of the BXII media deal is for UT and OU alone. That puts the valuation of the other schools are slightly under $20M per year (depending on the school). If the B10 adds, in their opinion, a Kansas or Iowa State is just not going to be able to justify an increase in the media deal.

Bolded, I agree. The media deal the B10 got by plucking Rutgers and Maryland couldn't be replicated in 2021 given the shift to streaming content. Those two schools got the golden ticket. And as others have said, Kansas football adds nothing to the B10 profile when big brands TX and OK are going SEC. Iowa State? Good school but does the B10 need two in mostly rural Iowa?

These times give license for wild speculation but I'm in the camp with those who suggest the Pac 12 is culturally so different and really so far geographically from the plains states that any expansion from the west coast wouldn't create a unified conference but would simply be nothing more than a scheduling alliance. USC and UCLA to the B10 is almost more plausible but also problematic in execution.

My guess is the B12 remainders have pride of ownership in the brand and a certain TV payout in the near term and will do everything possible, including expansion, to preserve the status quo. These conference members are "security buyers" as we've seen in the past so they won't make moves that are bold and visionary. In that case, I think UC sits in a great spot and while there is no replacing a TX or OK, plucking a pre-season top 10 program in Cincinnati seems credible--even with many talking heads in national sports media. I do think Houston will have some pull also given the size of the school, the city and the old Southwest Conference connections. So if it's two schools, I like UC's spot. I'll be surprised if it's four, but UCF and BYU would also bring some bona fide football credentials to a now shaky conference.

Now I'll put on my rose colored glasses and say UC football could immediately be the bell cow in a new B12. If media really believe UC is top ten in the often maligned American, wouldn't our profile only be enhanced by associating with what's been a P5 since inception of the current hierarchy?

I think people underestimate Kansas basketball’s value in the streaming world. That is a top five basketball brand. All it takes is to hide a few games behind a paywall service you have a whole bunch of subscribers.

I think we to start thinking in terms of fam bases and fan base potential. I think the Big Ten and Kansas are a great fit. Colorado or Iowa State would make sense too.