(08-18-2017 12:19 AM)stever20 Wrote: [ -> ]To act like no non homer extra base hit should impact a pitcher is laughably ignorant. That's the problem with FIP. Pretty much all FIP says is strike out a lot of guys and you are a great pitcher.
I really wish you'd argue with what we're saying rather than sh!t you just make up. FIP says neither of those things. It only says: Let's measure all the things that are 100% (or nearly so) within a pitcher's control. I don't believe it should be used as a comprehensive stat but there IS value in it. All non-homer base hits have influence beyond pitcher and batter: Defense, park factors, umpiring, sequencing, luck. And they are SIGNFICANT influences (ERA allocates for exactly none of them).
IMHO there are folks who may rely too heavily on FIP (looking at you fangraphs pitcher WAR). And a point that I know you agree with: A good pitcher can influence where and/or how a ball is hit. But there is not (yet) a comprehensive metric that allocates pitchers' influence on batted balls. ERA is certainly not even close. Frankly, ERA is probably better as a team stat than an individual stat.
Quote:I mean we had a guy last year- Alfredo Simon. He had a game where he gave up 14 hits and 10 runs in 4.1 innings. But no homers and 1 walk and 2 k's. His game FIP was 2.92. So FIP said that he was a very much above average pitcher that game. And that's a complete joke.
Citing an outlier isn't going to make your argument any more sound.
Two outs. Pitcher gives up HR, single, single, then gets final out. 1 ER
Two outs. Pitcher gives up single, single, HR, then final out. 3 ER
Try to tell me one of those pitchers was better (or worse) than the other.
I can do this all day.
How does FIP not say that all that matters is striking out guys and avoiding walks and homers? Because that's the only things that they say are within a pitchers control. And that's a joke. I mean a shot in Fenway off the monster and it's a double. How the hell isn't it the pitchers fault? But FIP wants us to believe that it isn't.
Bottom line, voters haven't shown any indication of going to advanced metrics in any meaningful way.
(08-18-2017 06:41 PM)stever20 Wrote: [ -> ]How does FIP not say that all that matters is striking out guys and avoiding walks and homers? Because that's the only things that they say are within a pitchers control. And that's a joke. I mean a shot in Fenway off the monster and it's a double. How the hell isn't it the pitchers fault? But FIP wants us to believe that it isn't.
Holy crap. Your Fenway example? That's a reason IN SUPPORT of FIP! A double off the monster is a flyball out in most parks. Why do you punish a pitcher for throwing a perfectly good pitch just because he's in Boston?
(08-19-2017 01:11 AM)Brookes Owl Wrote: [ -> ] (08-18-2017 06:41 PM)stever20 Wrote: [ -> ]How does FIP not say that all that matters is striking out guys and avoiding walks and homers? Because that's the only things that they say are within a pitchers control. And that's a joke. I mean a shot in Fenway off the monster and it's a double. How the hell isn't it the pitchers fault? But FIP wants us to believe that it isn't.
Holy crap. Your Fenway example? That's a reason IN SUPPORT of FIP! A double off the monster is a flyball out in most parks. Why do you punish a pitcher for throwing a perfectly good pitch just because he's in Boston?
A double 25 feet off the monster in Fenway is a HOMER in most parks. Fenway is one of the best pitcher parks in suppressing homers this year. Only parks that suppress homers more than Fenway are Petco and AT&T. But Fenway gives up the 9th most doubles in MLB. Nice try though.
(08-19-2017 08:56 AM)stever20 Wrote: [ -> ] (08-19-2017 01:11 AM)Brookes Owl Wrote: [ -> ] (08-18-2017 06:41 PM)stever20 Wrote: [ -> ]How does FIP not say that all that matters is striking out guys and avoiding walks and homers? Because that's the only things that they say are within a pitchers control. And that's a joke. I mean a shot in Fenway off the monster and it's a double. How the hell isn't it the pitchers fault? But FIP wants us to believe that it isn't.
Holy crap. Your Fenway example? That's a reason IN SUPPORT of FIP! A double off the monster is a flyball out in most parks. Why do you punish a pitcher for throwing a perfectly good pitch just because he's in Boston?
A double 25 feet off the monster in Fenway is a HOMER in most parks. Fenway is one of the best pitcher parks in suppressing homers this year. Only parks that suppress homers more than Fenway are Petco and AT&T. But Fenway gives up the 9th most doubles in MLB. Nice try though.
You don't even understand this argument.
Moving on...
I totally understand the argument. FIP thinks that a double 25 feet off the wall shouldn't impact a pitcher at all. And that's a ******* joke. There is more to pitching than striking out guys and not walking or giving up homers. FIP is WAY too simplistic. You say a pitcher shouldn't get dinged for giving up 3 straight singles. Well I say maybe strike out a batter when you know, it matters.....
Bottom line, it's going to take a long time for ERA to not matter in awards voting.
Sale with a pretty mediocre outing tonight vs Yankees- 4 runs in 7 innings. with 2 homers.
His August ERA now is 4.00. And his next start is at Cleveland. Followed by at Toronto. Then at Yankees again.
So right now-
Sale 14-5 with a 2.62 ERA
Kluber 12-3 with a 2.67 ERA
Kluber is more likely to win the Cy Young than Sale is to win the MVP.
Remaining opponents-
Sale- @ Cle,@ Tor, @ NYY, TB, @ TB, @ Bal, Tor, Hou(last day of season)
Kluber- Bos, @ NYY, @ Det, @ CWS, Det, KC, @ Sea, CWS
So for Sale to get to 20 wins, which he absolutely needs to have any shot at the MVP, he would need to win 6 of his final 7-8 starts. That's going to be difficult.
oh, and the Tom Tango tracker is showing a much closer race now than the start of August....
July 31-
Sale 69.3
Kluber 44.4
Today-
Sale 75.7
Kluber 61.1
in the 4 starts in August-
Sale 6.4
Kluber 16.7
With just a 14.6 point gap right now, we are really 1 more really bad start from Sale and 1 great start from Kluber from having pretty much a dead heat in his tracker.
The big thing with Sale in August has been his homers. After giving up 11 in the 1st 4 months of the year- in 148.3 innings, he's given up 4 homers in just 27 innings in August. That would be 21.98 prorated over 148 innings, or in other words almost exactly double what he did the 1st 4 months.
MLB really nailing it again tonight with the game in Williamsport, PA. Just a great visual for MLB.
Saw that Matz is out for the year for the Mets.... Out with a surgery on his ulnar nerve- similar to what deGrom had last year.... If Harvey and Thor don't pitch again this year- the 3 of them- which were supposed to be the backbone for the Mets rotation- would have had exactly 31 starts this year.
ESPN had an interesting point. Right now in the NL, deGrom leads the league in innings pitched with 165.1 innings. Considering his MLB high is 191 innings, you wonder if he may be a shutdown candidate in September. You wonder if he's wearing down some- after posting a 3.29 ERA thru July, in 4 August starts he's got a 4.62 ERA- with his last 2 starts both giving up 5 runs both starts. Mets have got to be super careful with him right now....
Red Sox batters not helping Sale's Cy Young Case tonight so far at least. 3 innings 9 up 9 down vs Kluber- with 5 k's. Kluber's ERA now 2.61 or 0.01 better than Sale.
If Kluber continues this great start and were to have a CG shutout(let alone a perfect game or a no hitter)- and Sale were to get hammered tomorrow, the AL Cy Young race is absolutely up for grabs. No matter what FG WAR says.
Well Kluber get the loss, but only gives up 2 er in 7.2 innings with 12 k's.
Right now before tomorrow night's Sale Start
Sale- 14-5 2.62
Kluber- 12-4 2.65
Kluber's start in the Tango tracker was a 3.0 point start. So not too bad. He's 11.6 points behind Sale. It's definitely getting closer by the day. Sale can not afford to get lit up or his lead in reality is probably almost totally gone for the Cy Young- let alone being any factor in the MVP race.
and Sale with 3 earned runs in first 2 innings... His August ERA now is up to 4.66. For the season his ERA now is 2.74.
and 3 more earned runs in the 3rd... August ERA now is 5.40
right now to the second-
Kluber 12-4 2.65
Sale 14-6 2.88
right now on the tracker this start is a -4.2 point start for Sale. in the Tracker to the minute, Sale is up by only 7.4 points. And Sale has done EXACTLY what I said he would do- collapse in August- like he has almost ALWAYS done!
So that innings lead that you want to beat Kluber over the head with is now only 25.2 innings- or utterly meaningless to the voters. The Cy Young race has totally changed in the month of August.
going into August-
Sale- 13-4 2.37 27/211 bb/k ratio
Kluber- 8-3 2.90 27/161 bb/k ratio
August-
Sale- 1-1 5.40 8/42 bb/k ratio
Kluber- 4-1 1.89 5/47 bb/k ratio
I think right now it's probably Extremely close. Kluber IMO has the advantage right now because if he continues on the trajectory he's going on, he's going to have end of the year quite the finishing 4 months. Sale right now will be lucky to finish with a 3.00 ERA.
It's so funny- if it is really close between Sale and Kluber and Kluber wins- Kluber has the head to head with the Red Sox/Indians to thank....
Sale vs Indians- 2 starts 13 ER in 8 innings 2 hr 4 bb 8 k's. 14.63 ERA
Kluber vs Red Sox- 1 start 2 er in 7.2 innings 1 hr 1 bb 12 k's. 2.35 ERA
So Kluber's batting friends would be a HUGE reason why Kluber would win...
Also the stats vs winning teams is a huge difference-
Sale- 6-3 3.55 ERA in 12 starts. 19/107 bb/k ratio
Kluber- 5-2 2.25 ERA in 10 starts. 15/93 bb/k ratio
Right now, I don't think anyone can argue that Sale is way out in front- unless they blindly use fan graphs WAR. Which the voters just DO NOT use at all. They didn't in 2015 when Kershaw had a 1.3 better WAR than Arrieta and a 2.8 better WAR than Greinke, yet finished WAY behind both of them. Right now it's pretty much a dead heat- and the last 38 days will decide things. And all the recent numbers clearly favor Kluber.
Miami continuing to make a pretty nice push here. Since starting 17-30 they have gone a very good 48-33 over their last 81 games. That's right- a 96 win pace there. They get to catch the Nats with 6 of 9 games in the next week and a half. After that- the Marlins are done with the Nats. It's very possible that if the Marlins can stay close- their mid-late September schedule would be really fun. 3 home with the Brewers followed by a really fun 6 game road trip- 3 each at Arizona and Colorado.
And I think it's pretty easy to say this statement. If the Marlins make the playoffs, the NL MVP will be close to unanimous- Giancarlo Stanton. Since the all star break- he's only batted going into tonight .319 with 23 homers and 47 RBI. In only 39 games. And he may get it even if they don't make the playoffs- as he's tied for 2nd in NL WAR right now with Goldschmidt with Rendon just ahead of him. If Stanton keeps up the pace the final 5 weeks of the season, he's NL MVP pretty much lock city.
well Kluber definitely not hurting himself tonight. 2 runs in 8 innings with only 1 walk and 7 k's. A 3.7 point start for him, so right now in the tracker he's only behind by 3.7 points. And in Bill James tracker, he's only behind by 12 points....
Kluber 13-4 2.63
Sale 14-6 2.88
Sale with a start tomorrow with Toronto where he really needs to get a good start to keep touch with Kluber. And then this weekend he gets the Yankees yet again. huge 2 starts for Sale IMO.
Kluber finishes August 5-1 with a 1.94 ERA and a 6/54 bb/k ratio. He's going to win the pitcher of the month award for the 2nd time in 3 months.
Colorado's crater job continuing tonight losing to the Tigers 4-3. They are 24-34 since June 20, and if SF beats SD tonight(they're up 3-0 in 8th)- Only the Reds and White Sox in MLB would be better than the Rockies in that period.
It'll be interesting to see if the Marlins, Cubs/Brewers/Cards can take advantage of the Rockies continued struggles. And even there- Arizona would is 2 games up on the Rockies with 31 games to go. Not good for Colorado at all.
ok just saw maybe the dumbest thing with FIP(and there are many). Did you know that FIP includes intentional walks penalizing pitchers?
Kluber for instance has 2 intentional walks this year. His FIP with those is 2.60(and that's what is on FG and BR). His FIP w/o those 2 is 2.56.
Sale by the way has 0 intentional walks.
So a pitcher can control intentional walks, but can't control extra base hits. GTFO.
Oh, and Bill James Cy Young tracker now- didn't get updated last night- Sale is only up by 3 points on Kluber. It's possible after tonight that Kluber could be ahead in that tracker.
so I was looking at the remaining schedules.
Boston can get Sale 7 starts including tonight. BUT to do that, he would have to start either 1 of 2 ways...
either starting 9/15,20,25,30- meaning he'd be getting no extra rest down the stretch
or-
starting 9/9/14/19/24/29. Meaning he'd get no extra rest until the playoffs where he'd get an extra day of rest....
You would think the 2nd one would be the option the Red Sox would go....
BUT- if that happens, he's going to have a really tough September matchup wise. @ NYY, TB, Oak, @ Bal, @ Cin, and Hou. Those 6 teams average 4.87 runs per game.. Tonight's start vs Toronto would be Sale's easiest matchup the rest of the way.... And in case you are wondering- if they go the 1st way- with starts on 15,20,25,30- avg runs per game- 4.78.
by comparison Kluber is projected to start on 9/2,8,13,19,24,30. So an extra day of rest 3 times. And his matchups- @ Det, Bal, Det, @ LAA, @ Sea, and @ CWS- average runs for those 6- 4.62.
So Kluber with a MUCH easier September schedule- no matter which way the Red Sox go.
And really won't be shocked at all if the Red Sox only give him 6 starts rest of the way(to include tonight) and give him some extra rest in September. If that happens- and Kluber makes his 6 September starts- the current innings margin of 17.2 innings would be right around where the final innings margin is. And that IMO is 100% meaningless. Kluber right now has the 8th most innings of any pitcher in the AL.