Lester has been good in playoffs with a 1.88 ERA in 14.1 innings. With 1 start on short rest. I wouldn't say Arrieta had a weak season- he was #28 pitcher in the NL by fWAR. And really even Lester was #23 in fWAR.
And for instance Arrieta is going up agaisnt Alex Wood in game 4. Wood will have gone a whopping 3 weeks between outings. That's a huge x factor I think....
I just think Hendricks wins game 3 and then you have Arrieta vs Wood in game 4. I like that matchup knowing Wood hasn't pitched in 3 weeks. Then game 5 and all the pressure is on Kershaw.
Oh and looking at forecast I think the wind will be blowing out for all 3 games in Chicago. would make a huge difference.
(10-16-2017 01:40 PM)stever20 Wrote: [ -> ]Lester has been good in playoffs with a 1.88 ERA in 14.1 innings. With 1 start on short rest. I wouldn't say Arrieta had a weak season- he was #28 pitcher in the NL by fWAR. And really even Lester was #23 in fWAR.
And for instance Arrieta is going up agaisnt Alex Wood in game 4. Wood will have gone a whopping 3 weeks between outings. That's a huge x factor I think....
I just think Hendricks wins game 3 and then you have Arrieta vs Wood in game 4. I like that matchup knowing Wood hasn't pitched in 3 weeks. Then game 5 and all the pressure is on Kershaw.
Oh and looking at forecast I think the wind will be blowing out for all 3 games in Chicago. would make a huge difference.
Lester's "weak" season was injury-induced. It's pretty clear that he's now in good health and pitching very well.
And I'm hopeful that Wood's rest actually helps him. His first half was lights out but in the 2nd half his velo was down and he was hurt. I'm hopeful that time off has helped him build strength up and heal. Also helps that Dodgers beat Arrieta earlier this season.
Wind blowing out? Helps Dodgers just as much if not more than Cubs, yeah? HRs hit just about the same; Dodgers pitchers better HR/FB%. (13.4 vs 14.5)
(10-16-2017 01:30 PM)Brookes Owl Wrote: [ -> ] (10-16-2017 01:05 PM)flyingswoosh Wrote: [ -> ] (10-16-2017 11:01 AM)stever20 Wrote: [ -> ] (10-16-2017 10:52 AM)flyingswoosh Wrote: [ -> ] (10-16-2017 08:28 AM)stever20 Wrote: [ -> ]i wouldn't stick a fork in the Cubs yet. They get Kendricks going in game 3 and Arrieta in game 4. If they can get both of those- it's a whole new series. Quintana in game 5 and Lester in game 6(both on regular rest). Plus, Wade Davis will be back to close things out on a more normal basis.
I have so little faith in their lineup and bullpen, while the Dodgers pen has really hit its stride. And they can use Maeda if things get hairy in the early innings. That said, never before have i wished this much for you to be correct
I just think these next 2 are huge. I mean, Cubs get both you have Kershaw going in a game 5 situation where he's going to have all the pressure in the world on him. For a guy with a 4.57 ERA and 3.68 FIP in his career(100.1 innings now). And a 4.76 ERA and 8.01 FIP this postseason.
I don't trust the Cubs lineup
wRC+
Baez: 98
Russell: 84
Heyward: 88
Zobrist: 82
Jay: 101
Contreras: 121
Of that group, Contreras had by far the best season, but he's 4-22 in the postseason.
They might be able to overcome that group of mediocre hitters if Bryant and Rizzo were hitting, but the latter is 4-26 and the former is 5-28. Hard to overcome a slump by your best guys, when their surrounding cast is already pretty weak. Not to mention Lester and Arrieta had weak seasons. I just don't expect them to all of a sudden start dominating
Not saying I'm comfortable, but this year just isn't last year. Arrieta is definitely not at the same level, and as you note, they're just not hitting well. With Darvish and Wood going in the next two games we'll see if those guys can break out a little. Or a lot.
Re stever's point about Kershaw, if he'd been pulled after 5 in game one we'd be hearing what a solid performance it was. Even after 6 we'd still be pretty happy (I know why he did it but I'm not thrilled Roberts let him start the 7th). There are things the Dodgers need to worry about but Kershaw's not in the top 10.
If it gets 2-2, all of Kershaw's playoff history comes back in a flash. Just can't erase all the questions that he's got.
I think best case for the Dodgers/Kershaw is they split these next 2, and Kershaw has the chance to pitch the Dodgers to the WS. Eliminate all those post season deamons once and for good.
(10-16-2017 01:56 PM)stever20 Wrote: [ -> ] (10-16-2017 01:30 PM)Brookes Owl Wrote: [ -> ] (10-16-2017 01:05 PM)flyingswoosh Wrote: [ -> ] (10-16-2017 11:01 AM)stever20 Wrote: [ -> ] (10-16-2017 10:52 AM)flyingswoosh Wrote: [ -> ]I have so little faith in their lineup and bullpen, while the Dodgers pen has really hit its stride. And they can use Maeda if things get hairy in the early innings. That said, never before have i wished this much for you to be correct
I just think these next 2 are huge. I mean, Cubs get both you have Kershaw going in a game 5 situation where he's going to have all the pressure in the world on him. For a guy with a 4.57 ERA and 3.68 FIP in his career(100.1 innings now). And a 4.76 ERA and 8.01 FIP this postseason.
I don't trust the Cubs lineup
wRC+
Baez: 98
Russell: 84
Heyward: 88
Zobrist: 82
Jay: 101
Contreras: 121
Of that group, Contreras had by far the best season, but he's 4-22 in the postseason.
They might be able to overcome that group of mediocre hitters if Bryant and Rizzo were hitting, but the latter is 4-26 and the former is 5-28. Hard to overcome a slump by your best guys, when their surrounding cast is already pretty weak. Not to mention Lester and Arrieta had weak seasons. I just don't expect them to all of a sudden start dominating
Not saying I'm comfortable, but this year just isn't last year. Arrieta is definitely not at the same level, and as you note, they're just not hitting well. With Darvish and Wood going in the next two games we'll see if those guys can break out a little. Or a lot.
Re stever's point about Kershaw, if he'd been pulled after 5 in game one we'd be hearing what a solid performance it was. Even after 6 we'd still be pretty happy (I know why he did it but I'm not thrilled Roberts let him start the 7th). There are things the Dodgers need to worry about but Kershaw's not in the top 10.
If it gets 2-2, all of Kershaw's playoff history comes back in a flash. Just can't erase all the questions that he's got.
I think best case for the Dodgers/Kershaw is they split these next 2, and Kershaw has the chance to pitch the Dodgers to the WS. Eliminate all those post season deamons once and for good.
Agree with this.
(10-16-2017 01:55 PM)Brookes Owl Wrote: [ -> ] (10-16-2017 01:40 PM)stever20 Wrote: [ -> ]Lester has been good in playoffs with a 1.88 ERA in 14.1 innings. With 1 start on short rest. I wouldn't say Arrieta had a weak season- he was #28 pitcher in the NL by fWAR. And really even Lester was #23 in fWAR.
And for instance Arrieta is going up agaisnt Alex Wood in game 4. Wood will have gone a whopping 3 weeks between outings. That's a huge x factor I think....
I just think Hendricks wins game 3 and then you have Arrieta vs Wood in game 4. I like that matchup knowing Wood hasn't pitched in 3 weeks. Then game 5 and all the pressure is on Kershaw.
Oh and looking at forecast I think the wind will be blowing out for all 3 games in Chicago. would make a huge difference.
Lester's "weak" season was injury-induced. It's pretty clear that he's now in good health and pitching very well.
And I'm hopeful that Wood's rest actually helps him. His first half was lights out but in the 2nd half his velo was down and he was hurt. I'm hopeful that time off has helped him build strength up and heal.
Wind blowing out? Helps Dodgers just as much if not more than Cubs, yeah? HRs hit just about the same; Dodgers pitchers better HR/FB%. (13.4 vs 14.5)
Dodgers bats though not been bad thru the playoffs. But have for the Cubs. I'd say it favors the struggling team more.
It'll be interesting to see how Wood does. 3 weeks off is a long time.
(10-16-2017 01:58 PM)stever20 Wrote: [ -> ] (10-16-2017 01:55 PM)Brookes Owl Wrote: [ -> ] (10-16-2017 01:40 PM)stever20 Wrote: [ -> ]Lester has been good in playoffs with a 1.88 ERA in 14.1 innings. With 1 start on short rest. I wouldn't say Arrieta had a weak season- he was #28 pitcher in the NL by fWAR. And really even Lester was #23 in fWAR.
And for instance Arrieta is going up agaisnt Alex Wood in game 4. Wood will have gone a whopping 3 weeks between outings. That's a huge x factor I think....
I just think Hendricks wins game 3 and then you have Arrieta vs Wood in game 4. I like that matchup knowing Wood hasn't pitched in 3 weeks. Then game 5 and all the pressure is on Kershaw.
Oh and looking at forecast I think the wind will be blowing out for all 3 games in Chicago. would make a huge difference.
Lester's "weak" season was injury-induced. It's pretty clear that he's now in good health and pitching very well.
And I'm hopeful that Wood's rest actually helps him. His first half was lights out but in the 2nd half his velo was down and he was hurt. I'm hopeful that time off has helped him build strength up and heal.
Wind blowing out? Helps Dodgers just as much if not more than Cubs, yeah? HRs hit just about the same; Dodgers pitchers better HR/FB%. (13.4 vs 14.5)
Dodgers bats though not been bad thru the playoffs. But have for the Cubs. I'd say it favors the struggling team more.
It'll be interesting to see how Wood does. 3 weeks off is a long time.
I'm hoping Darvish can do in Game 3 what he did to the DBacks in the NLDS. If so I don't have to worry as much about Wood.
(10-16-2017 01:24 PM)Brookes Owl Wrote: [ -> ] (10-16-2017 10:52 AM)flyingswoosh Wrote: [ -> ] (10-16-2017 08:28 AM)stever20 Wrote: [ -> ] (10-16-2017 07:22 AM)flyingswoosh Wrote: [ -> ]At this point it's looking like the Astros are my only hope. I can live with that, as they do have a very good team. A little concerned about their #3 starter situation, as well as the bullpen, but hopefully the lineup outside of Altuve and Correa will start hitting. A big key in a potential Dodgers-Astros is the health of Seager. If he plays, the Dodgers are probably the favorites. If he doesn't, it's likely they'll have some trouble scoring against Verlander and Keuchel
i wouldn't stick a fork in the Cubs yet. They get Kendricks going in game 3 and Arrieta in game 4. If they can get both of those- it's a whole new series. Quintana in game 5 and Lester in game 6(both on regular rest). Plus, Wade Davis will be back to close things out on a more normal basis.
I have so little faith in their lineup and bullpen, while the Dodgers pen has really hit its stride. And they can use Maeda if things get hairy in the early innings. That said, never before have i wished this much for you to be correct
2 weeks ago I would have agreed with the bolded part, but did you see the stats I posed for Maeda earlier? Dude is a righty killer. My guess is that the first long reliever out of the pen is Stripling.
The Maeda story is pretty cool. His contract is massively dependent on performance, including starts, innings, volume-based stats. But he's been a reliever for the second half and as a result hasn't come close to making the kind of money he would have as a starter. The team obviously recognizes this and just celebrates the guy as he goes out there and manhandles rhh's. And he seems to have embraced the role. His stuff is playing up, his velocity has improved. Nails.
My bad, didn't see those numbers
wow Yu Darvish with the PA of the year drawing a 4 pitch walk by faking like he was going to bunt and freaking out Edwards Jr.
That's just awful for the Cubs. I was watching it and couldn't believe it. And then he throws that nasty stuff to Taylor to strike him out on 3 pitches. You see Edwards shaking his head as he walked to the dugout? Yeesh.
(10-17-2017 10:45 PM)PirateTreasureNC Wrote: [ -> ]Are the Cubs choking?
no. Dodgers just the better team....
(10-17-2017 10:56 PM)stever20 Wrote: [ -> ] (10-17-2017 10:45 PM)PirateTreasureNC Wrote: [ -> ]Are the Cubs choking?
no. Dodgers just the better team....
I honestly think the Cubs might've been the worst team of the final 4 in the NL. Their pen is hot garbage, starting rotation is average and lineup is very top heavy. The Nats were my best bet in the NL and they totally screwed me over. When I look back on it, I wish Eaton had never gotten hurt.
And now the Yankees are my only hope. Astros have a good team, but their pen has proved to be pretty much done. If the Yankees can start hitting, they'll be tough
(10-17-2017 11:54 PM)flyingswoosh Wrote: [ -> ] (10-17-2017 10:56 PM)stever20 Wrote: [ -> ] (10-17-2017 10:45 PM)PirateTreasureNC Wrote: [ -> ]Are the Cubs choking?
no. Dodgers just the better team....
I honestly think the Cubs might've been the worst team of the final 4 in the NL. Their pen is hot garbage, starting rotation is average and lineup is very top heavy. The Nats were my best bet in the NL and they totally screwed me over. When I look back on it, I wish Eaton had never gotten hurt.
And now the Yankees are my only hope. Astros have a good team, but their pen has proved to be pretty much done. If the Yankees can start hitting, they'll be tough
Only thing was that Eaton's replacement was the one guy for the Nats who did much of anything in the LDS(Taylor). Taylor batted .333 with a 200 wRC+. So I don't know how much more Eaton could have done. Long term, the Nats will be better because they know that they can field an OF next year with Taylor, Eaton, and Harper.
Where I would say the injury that killed the Nats was the Harper one. If he's healthy the Nats make a far greater push at the #1 seed, and Harper is a lot better in the playoff. .211 average and 73 wRC+ is all Harper did in the playoffs(after a 15 wRC+ the last week of the regular season).
(10-17-2017 11:54 PM)flyingswoosh Wrote: [ -> ] (10-17-2017 10:56 PM)stever20 Wrote: [ -> ] (10-17-2017 10:45 PM)PirateTreasureNC Wrote: [ -> ]Are the Cubs choking?
no. Dodgers just the better team....
I honestly think the Cubs might've been the worst team of the final 4 in the NL. Their pen is hot garbage, starting rotation is average and lineup is very top heavy. The Nats were my best bet in the NL and they totally screwed me over. When I look back on it, I wish Eaton had never gotten hurt.
And now the Yankees are my only hope. Astros have a good team, but their pen has proved to be pretty much done. If the Yankees can start hitting, they'll be tough
You act like the Astros are hitting. They're scoring just over 2 runs a game in the series with a high of 4 runs in a single game. On the one hand, they're lucky not to be down but on the other hand, they could be up 3-1. The reason the Yankees haven't been hitting is because they've faced good pitching, especially Verlander and Keuchel.
It is by no means a coincidence the Yankees have been relatively stymied by Astros starting pitching.
(10-18-2017 12:28 AM)_C2_ Wrote: [ -> ] (10-17-2017 11:54 PM)flyingswoosh Wrote: [ -> ] (10-17-2017 10:56 PM)stever20 Wrote: [ -> ] (10-17-2017 10:45 PM)PirateTreasureNC Wrote: [ -> ]Are the Cubs choking?
no. Dodgers just the better team....
I honestly think the Cubs might've been the worst team of the final 4 in the NL. Their pen is hot garbage, starting rotation is average and lineup is very top heavy. The Nats were my best bet in the NL and they totally screwed me over. When I look back on it, I wish Eaton had never gotten hurt.
And now the Yankees are my only hope. Astros have a good team, but their pen has proved to be pretty much done. If the Yankees can start hitting, they'll be tough
You act like the Astros are hitting. They're scoring just over 2 runs a game in the series with a high of 4 runs in a single game. On the one hand, they're lucky not to be down but on the other hand, they could be up 3-1. The reason the Yankees haven't been hitting is because they've faced good pitching, especially Verlander and Keuchel.
Valid, the Astros hitters (especially outside of Altuve and Correa) have been pretty bad. But to be fair, the Yankees also have very good pitching
(10-18-2017 12:29 AM)_C2_ Wrote: [ -> ]It is by no means a coincidence the Yankees have been relatively stymied by Astros starting pitching.
I don't necessarily disagree, but they did nothing against McCullers who wasn't even in the rotation against the Sox
(10-17-2017 11:54 PM)flyingswoosh Wrote: [ -> ]The Nats were my best bet in the NL and they totally screwed me over.
Quote:And now the Yankees are my only hope.
I would not have guessed that Dodgers without Seager would be 3-0 v Cubs. They were just falling apart last night. I don't think they were choking but I do think there was some late inning desperation. They're just not hitting.
Wood can now pitch with almost no pressure.
(10-18-2017 08:04 AM)flyingswoosh Wrote: [ -> ] (10-18-2017 12:29 AM)_C2_ Wrote: [ -> ]It is by no means a coincidence the Yankees have been relatively stymied by Astros starting pitching.
I don't necessarily disagree, but they did nothing against McCullers who wasn't even in the rotation against the Sox
It's still no coincidence. Great series so far...