(07-10-2017 08:46 AM)flyingswoosh Wrote: [ -> ] (07-09-2017 09:41 PM)stever20 Wrote: [ -> ] (07-09-2017 09:15 PM)flyingswoosh Wrote: [ -> ] (07-09-2017 08:58 PM)stever20 Wrote: [ -> ] (07-09-2017 12:32 AM)Brookes Owl Wrote: [ -> ]With those numbers, if Sale also has 300 Ks (very realistic), he wins.
Except after tonight, Sale has a 176-123 K difference- and since June 1, Kluber has actually struck out 14 more guys than Sale has. So if the gap is 300-250, that's going to be pretty much meaningless....
I mean- looking at it with the tracker.
Sale- 18-6 72 ER in 225 innings- or a 2.88 ERA with 300 k's- 88.5 pts
Kluber- 15-4 49 ER in 195 innings- or a 2.26 ERA with 250 k's- 88.5 pts
so a tie. With Kluber being MUCH stronger since June 1.
Kluber is a guy that Sale can't use the strikeout card and have it be all that overwhelming.
Why are you expecting Kluber to have a 2.26 ERA? He'd have to be AMAZING the rest of the way. Like peak Kershaw
He would have to finish the season with about a 1.80 ERA in the 2nd half.
I look at the 2014 season where Kluber won the Cy Young.
1st half- he had a 3.01 ERA in 20 starts.
2nd half- he had a 1.73 ERA in 14 starts.
my point is simple. If he puts together a 2nd half like in 2014, Sale will have to be pretty damn good to beat that. Sale would have to pitch better than he has so far this year to be able to top that.
I think the race right now is pretty easy. If either Sale or Kluber has a great 2nd half, they're going to win the award.
If Sale ends with a 3.00 ERA and Kluber is at 2.70 with 30 fewer innings and 4 fewer wins, Sale will win it.
0.30 is about the biggest ERA gap that Sale can afford I think. I really do not think the voters look at innings anywhere near as closely as you do. I just don't see the race being this foregone conclusion that you guys make it seem to be- you guys want to make it seem where if Sale pitches exactly like he has 1st half- that he's got no chance of losing the award. And that's just not realistic in any fashion at all right now, not with Kluber having pretty much the exact same ERA, and the ability to go low in the 2nd half of the season.
A lot of July was the first 3 games. Last 4 games, his wRC+ was 94(after 1st 3 being -100). He got a couple of days off before that and seemed to do some good. Will be really interesting to see how he comes back after the break.
(07-09-2017 08:58 PM)stever20 Wrote: [ -> ] (07-09-2017 12:32 AM)Brookes Owl Wrote: [ -> ] (07-07-2017 12:30 PM)stever20 Wrote: [ -> ]I just think Sale is far more vulnerable than you want to think he is. If the season ends with
Kluber 15-4 with a 2.25 ERA in 195 innings
Sale 18-6 with a 2.90 ERA in 225 innings
<snip>
So tell me how exactly Sale would have much of a shot? Sale would need to have a pretty darn good 2nd half of the season to beat them.
With those numbers, if Sale also has 300 Ks (very realistic), he wins.
Except after tonight, Sale has a 176-123 K difference- and since June 1, Kluber has actually struck out 14 more guys than Sale has. So if the gap is 300-250, that's going to be pretty much meaningless....
I mean- looking at it with the tracker.
Sale- 18-6 72 ER in 225 innings- or a 2.88 ERA with 300 k's- 88.5 pts
Kluber- 15-4 49 ER in 195 innings- or a 2.26 ERA with 250 k's- 88.5 pts
so a tie. With Kluber being MUCH stronger since June 1.
Kluber is a guy that Sale can't use the strikeout card and have it be all that overwhelming.
It seems you are still looking at this as what OUGHT to be, as opposed to how folks are likely to vote. Your strikeout gap argument? It's out the window because the difference between 250 and 300 isn't just the 50 Ks; it's the difference between a very nice season and a historic one. Kluber's hypothetical stronger second half gets at least partially overshadowed by the press that Sale is going to get as he gets closer to 300.
I even agree that Kluber's season that you project above is better than your Sale projection. I just don't agree that voters, confronted with those stats plus 300+ Ks by Sale, will still pick Kluber.
(07-06-2017 10:14 AM)stever20 Wrote: [ -> ]wow saw thing on ESPN talking about the Dodgers.... is this best team ever for them?
top team ever for Dodgers was 1974. 102-60. .630 winning pct. Well right now, the Dodgers winning pct is .663. Haven't won more than 95 games in 40 years(man, that's amazing).
And look at the schedule the rest of the way. 76 games- with 47 of them vs losing teams. Of first 36 games after the break, only 6 are vs winning teams.
I don't know if it's best team ever, but best record is definitely in play. To your last point, their future strength of schedule is last in the league. But the stat that really stands out right now is home record: 39-11 (.780). That's insane. And unsustainable, of course. But, damn.
(07-10-2017 12:27 PM)Brookes Owl Wrote: [ -> ] (07-09-2017 08:58 PM)stever20 Wrote: [ -> ] (07-09-2017 12:32 AM)Brookes Owl Wrote: [ -> ] (07-07-2017 12:30 PM)stever20 Wrote: [ -> ]I just think Sale is far more vulnerable than you want to think he is. If the season ends with
Kluber 15-4 with a 2.25 ERA in 195 innings
Sale 18-6 with a 2.90 ERA in 225 innings
<snip>
So tell me how exactly Sale would have much of a shot? Sale would need to have a pretty darn good 2nd half of the season to beat them.
With those numbers, if Sale also has 300 Ks (very realistic), he wins.
Except after tonight, Sale has a 176-123 K difference- and since June 1, Kluber has actually struck out 14 more guys than Sale has. So if the gap is 300-250, that's going to be pretty much meaningless....
I mean- looking at it with the tracker.
Sale- 18-6 72 ER in 225 innings- or a 2.88 ERA with 300 k's- 88.5 pts
Kluber- 15-4 49 ER in 195 innings- or a 2.26 ERA with 250 k's- 88.5 pts
so a tie. With Kluber being MUCH stronger since June 1.
Kluber is a guy that Sale can't use the strikeout card and have it be all that overwhelming.
It seems you are still looking at this as what OUGHT to be, as opposed to how folks are likely to vote. Your strikeout gap argument? It's out the window because the difference between 250 and 300 isn't just the 50 Ks; it's the difference between a very nice season and a historic one. Kluber's hypothetical stronger second half gets at least partially overshadowed by the press that Sale is going to get as he gets closer to 300.
I even agree that Kluber's season that you project above is better than your Sale projection. I just don't agree that voters, confronted with those stats plus 300+ Ks by Sale, will still pick Kluber.
300 k's isn't a historic season though. There are 65 seasons that have been 300 k's.
And I take you to 2015 for a PRIME example. Kershaw had 301 K's, and 65 more k's than Arrieta. But he got all of 3 Cy Young 1st place votes out of 30. I remember what the press said in the 2015 season. It's not the Cy Whiff award.
To me, voters look at pitchers in the following way-
1- ERA
2- Strikeouts
3- Wins
even you look at the tracker and you see this....
If a guy goes 8 scoreless innings, he gets 4 points. (even 1 run is 3 points)
If a guy gets 15 strikeouts, he would only get 1.5 points.
(07-10-2017 12:44 PM)stever20 Wrote: [ -> ] (07-10-2017 12:27 PM)Brookes Owl Wrote: [ -> ] (07-09-2017 08:58 PM)stever20 Wrote: [ -> ] (07-09-2017 12:32 AM)Brookes Owl Wrote: [ -> ] (07-07-2017 12:30 PM)stever20 Wrote: [ -> ]I just think Sale is far more vulnerable than you want to think he is. If the season ends with
Kluber 15-4 with a 2.25 ERA in 195 innings
Sale 18-6 with a 2.90 ERA in 225 innings
<snip>
So tell me how exactly Sale would have much of a shot? Sale would need to have a pretty darn good 2nd half of the season to beat them.
With those numbers, if Sale also has 300 Ks (very realistic), he wins.
Except after tonight, Sale has a 176-123 K difference- and since June 1, Kluber has actually struck out 14 more guys than Sale has. So if the gap is 300-250, that's going to be pretty much meaningless....
I mean- looking at it with the tracker.
Sale- 18-6 72 ER in 225 innings- or a 2.88 ERA with 300 k's- 88.5 pts
Kluber- 15-4 49 ER in 195 innings- or a 2.26 ERA with 250 k's- 88.5 pts
so a tie. With Kluber being MUCH stronger since June 1.
Kluber is a guy that Sale can't use the strikeout card and have it be all that overwhelming.
It seems you are still looking at this as what OUGHT to be, as opposed to how folks are likely to vote. Your strikeout gap argument? It's out the window because the difference between 250 and 300 isn't just the 50 Ks; it's the difference between a very nice season and a historic one. Kluber's hypothetical stronger second half gets at least partially overshadowed by the press that Sale is going to get as he gets closer to 300.
I even agree that Kluber's season that you project above is better than your Sale projection. I just don't agree that voters, confronted with those stats plus 300+ Ks by Sale, will still pick Kluber.
300 k's isn't a historic season though. There are 65 seasons that have been 300 k's.
And I take you to 2015 for a PRIME example. Kershaw had 301 K's, and 65 more k's than Arrieta. But he got all of 3 Cy Young 1st place votes out of 30. I remember what the press said in the 2015 season. It's not the Cy Whiff award.
To me, voters look at pitchers in the following way-
1- ERA
2- Strikeouts
3- Wins
even you look at the tracker and you see this....
If a guy goes 8 scoreless innings, he gets 4 points. (even 1 run is 3 points)
If a guy gets 15 strikeouts, he would only get 1.5 points.
WTF?! This is a terrible analogy. Arrieta had motherf'ing 22 wins vs Kershaw at 16!!! Not to mention his ERA 1.77 vs Kershaw at 2.13. This is actually a counter argument to your Kluber pumping, because the wins were probably a significant factor in putting Arrieta over the top, despite their very similar values (Arrieta lead in rWAR, Kershaw in fWAR).
ERA was and is the 1st thing. 1.77 vs 2.13. What am I saying with Sale/Kluber? Kluber 2.26/Sale 2.88- a bigger gap than 2015 even.
And look at Baseball-Reference's WAR. right now it's Sale up on Kluber- but only 3.9 to 3.6. If it's 2.26 to 2.88 end of year- Kluber would be way ahead of Sale in that WAR.
And like I said look at the tracker that you say is so damn accurate.....
a guy gets a win, 15 k's and throws 8 scoreless innings....
HE gets.....
4 points for the 8 scoreless innings
1.5 points for the strikeouts
1 point for the win
Or in another way....
4 points for the innings
2.5 points for the strikeouts and win- COMBINED...
If Kluber can finish with a 2.25ish ERA, Sale will have to be better than he is right now. Period. You might not like it, but ERA matters the most of any pitching stat out there.
(07-10-2017 01:09 PM)stever20 Wrote: [ -> ]If Kluber can finish with a 2.25ish ERA, Sale will have to be better than he is right now. Period. You might not like it, but ERA matters the most of any pitching stat out there.
Gimme a break, and stop mis-stating my point. Kluber at 2.25 and Sale at 2.88? Kluber ABSOLUTELY is the better pitcher, deserves the CY, and almost certainly will win it. But Kluber at 2.7 and Sale at 3ish or less, with more wins and 300+ Ks? Kluber might still be the better pitcher (depends on the peripherals) but I think Sale wins it.
Summing my argument: You are expecting a lot of Kluber (something he's done once, 3 yrs ago) to reach the stats you are projecting. And, you underestimate the power of 300 Ks when all other stats are relatively equal (or at least balance out).
(07-10-2017 01:45 PM)Brookes Owl Wrote: [ -> ] (07-10-2017 01:09 PM)stever20 Wrote: [ -> ]If Kluber can finish with a 2.25ish ERA, Sale will have to be better than he is right now. Period. You might not like it, but ERA matters the most of any pitching stat out there.
Gimme a break, and stop mis-stating my point. Kluber at 2.25 and Sale at 2.88? Kluber ABSOLUTELY is the better pitcher, deserves the CY, and almost certainly will win it. But Kluber at 2.7 and Sale at 3ish or less, with more wins and 300+ Ks? Kluber might still be the better pitcher (depends on the peripherals) but I think Sale wins it.
Summing my argument: You are expecting a lot of Kluber (something he's done once, 3 yrs ago) to reach the stats you are projecting. And, you underestimate the power of 300 Ks when all other stats are relatively equal (or at least balance out).
If the ERA is close, than I have no problem saying that Sale would have it. But if it's anything more than about a .35 gap, it's going to be problematic for Sale. The K's won't allow him to overcome the gap.
And the problem I see with Sale is that he has only once in his 5 years as a starter had a better 2nd half than 1st half. Now it was last year. Part of that though was that he had the uniform suspension if you remember which gave him a bit of a break in July.
2012- 1st 2.19 ERA 2nd 4.03 ERA 4.11 ERA Sep/Oct
2013- 1st 2.97 ERA 2nd 3.19 ERA 3.44 ERA Sep/Oct
2014- 1st 2.08 ERA 2nd 2.28 ERA 2.52 ERA Sep/Oct
2015- 1st 2.72 ERA 2nd 4.33 ERA 4.34 ERA Sep/Oct
2016- 1st 3.38 ERA 2nd 3.28 ERA 4.39 ERA Sep/Oct
As you see in 2 of the 5 years, his 2nd half ERA was a good 1.5 runs or worse than his 1st half ERA. And as you see his September/October stats aren't great at all- only once in his 5 years of a starter sub 3. With 3 of the 5 years his ERA over 4.
I really think there's a good shot we could see it wind up-
Kluber with a 2.75 ERA
Sale with a 3.50 ERA
(07-10-2017 02:03 PM)stever20 Wrote: [ -> ]I really think there's a good shot we could see it wind up-
Kluber with a 2.75 ERA
Sale with a 3.50 ERA
I think THAT is INFINITELY more likely than your earlier speculation.
Looking at Kluber's half breakdown- he's been a better pitcher in 3 of the 4 years in the 2nd half...
2013 1st 3.88 2nd 3.78
2014 1st 3.01 2nd 1.73
2015 1st 3.38 2nd 3.65
2016 1st 3.61 2nd 2.52
So Kluber in 3/4 years a better pitcher- with 2 of the 3 times better by over a run.
So Sale in 4/5 years a worse pitcher- with 2 of the 4 times worse by over 1.5 runs.
And entering the period where it's pretty close.
I'd say it's pretty much wide open between the 2 of them. Kluber the last month and a half has made up a ton of ground.
Can't wait till Kluber gets rocked in one of his characteristic poor performances and you pivot to Vargas as the next challenger du jour
(07-10-2017 03:10 PM)flyingswoosh Wrote: [ -> ]Can't wait till Kluber gets rocked in one of his characteristic poor performances and you pivot to Vargas as the next challenger du jour
Sale is just as likely....
Since the start of the 2015 season(so taking out Kluber's Cy Young season)....
Kluber has had 13 outings giving up 5 or more earned runs
Sale has had 13 outings giving up 5 or more earned runs
(Sale has 3 more starts than Kluber in the 3 year period)
That is what makes this race so interesting. BOTH guys are very capable of having a 15 K shutout performance- but then again BOTH guys are capable of getting lit up like a Christmas Tree.
1 thing that is very promising- saw both guys are scheduled to start on Saturday 1st game back after the break. If that holds, they would be on track to start vs each other on 7/31. Also if the rotation holds, they could see each other again in late August.
(07-10-2017 02:45 PM)stever20 Wrote: [ -> ]Looking at Kluber's half breakdown- he's been a better pitcher in 3 of the 4 years in the 2nd half...
2013 1st 3.88 2nd 3.78
2014 1st 3.01 2nd 1.73
2015 1st 3.38 2nd 3.65
2016 1st 3.61 2nd 2.52
This feels like a reach. Only two of those second halves are significant improvement. For 2017, I don't think it's statistically likely he'll be better in the second half. He may be better, but those stats don't support a clear trend.
You know what's REALLY interesting? NL Cy Young race definitely tightening up:
Scherzer: 10-5, 2.10
Kershaw: 14-2, 2.18
Scherzer leads Kershaw in Ks! 173 vs 159
But the wins might put Kershaw in the lead...
(07-10-2017 03:44 PM)Brookes Owl Wrote: [ -> ]You know what's REALLY interesting? NL Cy Young race definitely tightening up:
Scherzer: 10-5, 2.10
Kershaw: 14-2, 2.18
Scherzer leads Kershaw in Ks! 173 vs 159
But the wins might put Kershaw in the lead...
For Kershaw to win, after all the hubbub about Scherzer, would be pretty funny
man, MLB sure as heck hit a literal home run with the format in the hr derby. What a great atmosphere tonight- and just incredible performances. And close matchups to boot.
(07-10-2017 03:41 PM)Brookes Owl Wrote: [ -> ] (07-10-2017 02:45 PM)stever20 Wrote: [ -> ]Looking at Kluber's half breakdown- he's been a better pitcher in 3 of the 4 years in the 2nd half...
2013 1st 3.88 2nd 3.78
2014 1st 3.01 2nd 1.73
2015 1st 3.38 2nd 3.65
2016 1st 3.61 2nd 2.52
This feels like a reach. Only two of those second halves are significant improvement. For 2017, I don't think it's statistically likely he'll be better in the second half. He may be better, but those stats don't support a clear trend.
If you made be guess which guy would have the better 2nd half, I'd have to say Kluber. He has shown the ability to pitch better in the 2nd half more than just once. Sale hasn't.
Also the schedule for the Red Sox is much tougher for pitchers in the 2nd half than it is with Cleveland. I looked at the schedule and compared their projected opponents-
Sale- 15 starts. 10 vs east, 3 vs central, 2 vs west. Average teams runs per start- 4.91. With only 5 games vs teams below the league average in scoring (3 vs Toronto, 1 with Chicago, 1 with Baltimore).
Kluber- 16 starts. 5 vs east, 8 vs Central, 3 vs west. Average teams runs per start- 4.58. With only 5 games vs teams above league average in scoring (2 with Boston, 1 ea vs Seattle, Yankees, Tampa). And
So Sale has a much tougher schedule in the 2nd half. Not even really close at all. Just a case in point- in his first 10 starts after the break- he will see the Yankees a whopping 4 times.
Wow- just heard that Bobby Bonilla will be making more this year than Aaron Judge and Cody Bellinger. COMBINED!!!!!