CSNbbs

Whew - needed that today. Pretty much what we expected. Tough series - great pitching and scant but timely offense.

And, uh, this is what Zimmerman hit out...



Are you kidding?

just saw that Keuchel is heading back to the DL with his neck problems. It's retroactive to June 3, so might only miss like 1 more start.

Sale with a huge start tomorrow vs Detroit. 1 of only 2 starts before the Break now for him that'll be at home. And Tigers are the highest scoring of his 6 opponents prior to the break. He's going

to be on an extra days rest, which isn't good for him....
he's had 7 starts on normal 4 days rest. he's 5-1 with a 2.70 ERA. 12/71 bb/k ratio. .175/.228/.282 slash. .510 ops
3 starts on 5 days rest. He's 2-0, but with a 4.74 ERA. 4/31 bb/k ratio. .253/.291/.440 slash. .731 ops
what's strange- he's had 2 starts on more than that rest. He's 0-1 but with a 1.20 ERA. 1/17 bb/k ratio. .216/.241/.216 slash. .456 ops

Kind of a strange split there.

Cubs lose again, now .500.

Very streaky - lose 6, win 5, now lost 3 in a row.

so I think it's interesting. Nats Trevor Gott pitched last night 1st time for a third of an inning- didn't get an walks, k's, hbp, or hr. So his FIP right now is just the constant- that is added to everyone. It's interesting to see that number..... Right now that constant is 3.11.

Angels won last night to go 8-7 since the injury to Trout. Offense with out him scoring 5 runs per game in June after barely scoring 4 per game with him. Isn't baseball great?

huge stretch for Angels coming up. 1 last one with the Yankees, but then 4 with KC, 3 @ NYY, 3 @ Bos, and then 4 with the Dodgers. Enter this stretch only 1.5 out of the 2nd wild card spot.

(06-14-2017 10:22 AM)stever20 Wrote: [ -> ]Angels won last night to go 8-7 since the injury to Trout. Offense with out him scoring 5 runs per game in June after barely scoring 4 per game with him. Isn't baseball great?

huge stretch for Angels coming up. 1 last one with the Yankees, but then 4 with KC, 3 @ NYY, 3 @ Bos, and then 4 with the Dodgers. Enter this stretch only 1.5 out of the 2nd wild card spot.

I'm having a little trouble understanding the Angels. Most metrics say they're right about in the middle of the AL, both pitching and hitting, but numerically closer to the bottom than the top. That they're (now) 1/2 game out of the wild card makes me think they're playing above their projections.

I predicted Scioscia would be fired last year but he's still hanging around. I guess to have them where they are now, with their talent (excluding Trout) is pretty remarkable. Their farm system is still in terrible shape and I don't see them willing to buy big free agents. It's hard not to think where they are in the standings is just smoke and mirrors...

Nats pitching letting them down a bit lately and they're now 1 game back in the loss column for best record in NL. I don't think it'll jeopardize their NL East lead but it does sort of emphasize how important it'll be to do something about the bullpen before the post season. Y'all are going to make some moves there, right stever?

(06-15-2017 09:08 AM)Brookes Owl Wrote: [ -> ]Nats pitching letting them down a bit lately and they're now 1 game back in the loss column for best record in NL. I don't think it'll jeopardize their NL East lead but it does sort of emphasize how important it'll be to do something about the bullpen before the post season. Y'all are going to make some moves there, right stever?

I don't think the Nats have any choice but to do something. And not just for 1 guy but more like 2 or 3 guys.

so I was just shocked to look at breaking news alert on my phone and see that Matt Harvey out for several weeks with a stress injury in his right shoulder. Definitely filed in the where have we heard this before file....

He gave up an absolute moon shot to Kyle Schwarber last night. I think I saw it was estimated at 467 feet or something crazy like that- and that seemed conservative.

you know what's the most amazing part of the Mets season so far....

65 games into the season where they are 30-35, and they've only played 20 games so far vs winning teams. With last night being #20.
In next 65 games, they have 30 of 65 games with winning teams.

The Mets have played the 3rd easiest schedule in MLB this year. only the Nats and Braves have had easier. Looking-Nats have only had 10 games vs winning teams so far. But even with half the number of games, Nats have 7 wins vs winning teams to only 6 for the Mets.

(06-16-2017 10:40 AM)stever20 Wrote: [ -> ]you know what's the most amazing part of the Mets season so far....

Is it really that amazing though? By all accounts they're a mess, but they've managed to hang around second place in the East, and it it wasn't for the log jam at the top of the NL West they'd still be in the hunt for the Wild Card. The explanation, as you've shown, is SOS. They'll probably show their true colors now and fall much closer to the bottom of the league.

if the major league baseball has the equivalent of a sixth man, scooter gennett has to be a contender. this is without his four homer dealy (which was cool as sh!t). he's had a pretty damn good career so far. i know the brewers are trying to develop people but how'd we end up with him? he's young enough to keep around in case dilson herrera doesn't pan out. pleasant surprise

(06-16-2017 01:19 PM)Brookes Owl Wrote: [ -> ]

(06-16-2017 10:40 AM)stever20 Wrote: [ -> ]you know what's the most amazing part of the Mets season so far....

Is it really that amazing though? By all accounts they're a mess, but they've managed to hang around second place in the East, and it it wasn't for the log jam at the top of the NL West they'd still be in the hunt for the Wild Card. The explanation, as you've shown, is SOS. They'll probably show their true colors now and fall much closer to the bottom of the league.

Agreed. Mets injuries this season have been insane and the fact that they are only 5 below .500 (even with an easy schedule is impressive). They currently have Harvey and Syndergaard as SPs, Familia (closer), Walker, Cabrera and Wright (projected starting 2B, SS and 3b) on the DL and that is only the current group on DL. They have had so many other injuries and guys who were projected starters who were on the DL like Cespedes and d'Arnaud in the field and Lugo and Matz have just started pitching this season. Mets have been playing backup guys all season a lot moreso than other teams.

(05-16-2017 11:38 AM)stever20 Wrote: [ -> ]

(05-16-2017 11:22 AM)flyingswoosh Wrote: [ -> ]

(05-16-2017 10:59 AM)Brookes Owl Wrote: [ -> ]Matt motherf'ing Cain. I found myself saying "yeah, it's the Giants" last night. Late last week and over the weekend I was saying "yeah, it's Coors Field." I can't keep doing that. At this point last year the Dodgers were 20-18 and 1 game back of the Giants. The offense was terrible mediocre and guys were injured or recovering from injuries, so there was room for improvement. Now they're 22-17 and 2 games back. Offense is actually decent; pitching is pretty good. Problem is the Rockies are just playing great right now. Statistically it's not obvious why they're playing so well. Maybe I'm missing something or maybe it's an indicator that the standings will change as the season moves along. Way too early to panic but can't help worrying a little...

I think the playoffs will be quite fun this year. In the AL you'll have a battle between the Indians and Astros, as well as possible contests between the Yanks and Sox. And in the NL the Dodgers and Nats could be fun again, while the Cardinals and Cubs are likely to be in the mix (i expect the Cubs to look to add a starting pitcher). And I've been a big believer of the Rockies for the last few months and that has not changed. They're due to improve once Gray comes back

still say don't sleep on Arizona. They are in a really soft part of their schedule. From now until June 20- or 30 games, the only games they have with a current winning team- 7 with Milwaukee. Then the 19 games before the break are just huge. with 6 with Colorado, 3 with St Louis, and 3 with the Dodgers included in those 19 games. They could get to that stretch though like with a 42-28(going 20-10 in these 30 games).

so going back looking at this- they actually went 22-8 in the 30 games that I was talking with. Now it's that huge 16 game stretch- with 3 @ Colorado, then after 4 with Philly 3 with St Louis, 3 with Colorado, followed by 3 @ LA Dodgers.

Huge key for Arizona has been the fixing of Fernando Rodney. He started the season horribly with a 12.60 ERA. Really it was 4 outings where he gave up 13 runs in 3 innings. Since May 1, he's gone 16.2 innings giving up 1 unearned run. Oh and 2 hits.

Arizona positioned really well. They are a whopping 9 games up right now on the Cubs for playoff spot. If Arizona goes 46-46 rest of the way, they win 90 games. Cubs would have to go 57-37 to beat them(98 win pace) AND Milwaukee would have to go 53-38 to beat them(94 win pace). Don't think both of those would happen.

Agree with you about AZ being well positioned, but now that they're out of the soft stretch, let's see how they do.

Re Cubs, despite the experts who still expect them to get over whatever they're going through and win the division, I'm increasingly skeptical they can do that. Not sure what's ailing them, and as you point out they don't have a ton of time before they need to kick things into gear. Only a couple of guys on the DL, and they weren't playing particularly well before getting hurt. Pitching, hitting, defense - all pretty mediocre right now.

(06-19-2017 01:43 PM)Brookes Owl Wrote: [ -> ]Agree with you about AZ being well positioned, but now that they're out of the soft stretch, let's see how they do.

Re Cubs, despite the experts who still expect them to get over whatever they're going through and win the division, I'm increasingly skeptical they can do that. Not sure what's ailing them, and as you point out they don't have a ton of time before they need to kick things into gear. Only a couple of guys on the DL, and they weren't playing particularly well before getting hurt. Pitching, hitting, defense - all pretty mediocre right now.

Well after the hard 16 games(with 4 with Philly so 8-8 very possible)- they get 6 with Cincy, 6 with Atlanta(interspersed with 3 with the Nats). So these 31 games they could go 18-13 or something like that- and that would put their record to 62-39 with 61 games left. They aren't going away.

Phew - like I keep saying, this seems like the new normal for Kershaw. Instead of one or two clunkers per season it's gonna be one every 4 or 5 games. Tonight, definitely the clunker department: 6 runs on 4 HRs.

already got a career high in homers given up with 17 homers. 9 more than he gave up last year(in 45 fewer innings). His HR/9 is 1.5 after never being over 1 in his entire career. Last year it was 0.5. Last 5 starts given up 10 homers and has a 3.98 ERA. And what's interesting hitters have pulled the ball on him now 51.3% of the time. Last night with the Mets- that number was a whopping 64.3%. I looked and last year he had 6 starts over 50%-- and for the season he was at 41.8%. His last 5 starts in June before going on the DL- the number was 36.8%.

Hopefully for Kershaw, he doesn't go the King Felix route of being homer prone later in his career.

Of course, with the league ERA being 4.35, he's still above average!

I'm gonna blame it on juiced baseballs! Kidding, of course. His command was really suffering last night.

stever has been periodically reminding us of increased HR rates and this came out last week. It's pretty interesting:

Ben Lindbergh at The Ringer Wrote:The newer balls have higher CORs and lower circumferences and seam heights, which would be estimated to add an average of 7.1 feet to their distance, equivalent to the effect we would expect to stem from a 1.43 mph difference in exit speed.

Lots of other good discussion in there, including acknowledgement that batters focusing on launch angle is definitely a contributor but could as easily be a reaction to juiced balls (or rather, "opportunity") than as a lone cause of increased HRs. MLB, of course, denies there is anything going on here but their claim that "all balls meet our specs" is a little specious because MLB ball standards are pretty broad.

well, looking right now so far this year- been 1.27 homers per team per game. The previous record is 1.17, set in 2000. This year isn't just breaking the record, it's going to demolish it.

Also, after the slow start, the averages have gotten higher. this year MLB average in June is .268. Last June the average was .263.

this year-
Apr .247
May .254
June .268

last year-
Apr .249
May .255
June .263(was highest month of season).
July .252
Aug .259
Sep .253

The .268 average this month would be the highest monthly average since August 2009 when there was a .269 average.