(08-15-2017 11:59 AM)stever20 Wrote: [ -> ] (08-15-2017 11:31 AM)flyingswoosh Wrote: [ -> ] (08-15-2017 11:29 AM)stever20 Wrote: [ -> ]looking fast, Willie Stargell in 1979 had only 126 games played. 480 pa's. Had OPS+ of 139.
Trout looking like he'll have 117 games played. He's got 74 right now, with 43 to go. Already has 329 pa's so assuming 4 per game he'd have 501. His OPS right now is 211.
Except Stargell didn't win...
except that he did win. he was co-mvp with Keith Hernandez.
My mistake, didn't notice that. Of course that vote was a total joke, as Stargell didn't deserve to even sniff the award. I have to believe a Ryan Howard type victory would not happen in 2017
(08-15-2017 11:29 AM)stever20 Wrote: [ -> ]looking fast, Willie Stargell in 1979 had only 126 games played. 480 pa's. Had OPS+ of 139.
Trout looking like he'll have 117 games played. He's got 74 right now, with 43 to go. Already has 329 pa's so assuming 4 per game he'd have 501. His OPS right now is 211.
I don't think there's a minimum for MVP but it's 3.1 PAs per game scheduled to qualify for the batting title, which equates to 502. I think getting to or near the minimum would probably be good enough to get broad consideration, like Stargell did (deserving or otherwise - swoosh's point is a good one). So assuming no more injury and VERY little rest would probably be good enough. He's playing at a ridiculously high level right now. If he gets another 180 or so PAs at his current performance? His numbers will be ridiculous. Dude's already third in AL WAR!
(08-14-2017 04:00 PM)flyingswoosh Wrote: [ -> ]Fangraphs makes the case that Sale should be the current front runner for MVP. Like I had said a few weeks ago, he's not just having a great season, but rather an historic one.
On the other hand, bWAR doesn't have him nearly that far in front. Still in the conversation for sure but at this point 3rd in the AL:
1. Scherzer • WSN 6.6
2. Altuve • HOU 6.4
3. Simmons • LAA 6.3
4. Sale • BOS 5.7
5. Goldschmidt • ARI 5.6
6. Judge • NYY 5.6
7. Votto • CIN 5.5
8. Gonzalez • WSN 5.4
9. Kluber • CLE 5.3
10. Greinke • ARI 5.2
Frustrating that the two most common calcs for WAR can be so far apart.
(08-15-2017 01:09 PM)Brookes Owl Wrote: [ -> ] (08-15-2017 11:29 AM)stever20 Wrote: [ -> ]looking fast, Willie Stargell in 1979 had only 126 games played. 480 pa's. Had OPS+ of 139.
Trout looking like he'll have 117 games played. He's got 74 right now, with 43 to go. Already has 329 pa's so assuming 4 per game he'd have 501. His OPS right now is 211.
I don't think there's a minimum for MVP but it's 3.1 PAs per game scheduled to qualify for the batting title, which equates to 502. I think getting to the minimum would probably be good enough to get broad consideration. So assuming no more injury and VERY little rest would probably be good enough. He's playing at a ridiculously high level right now. If he gets another 180 or so PAs at his current performance? His numbers will be ridiculous. Dude's already third in AL WAR!
Such a shame he got hurt, as he was having his best season. That's saying something for such an incredible player
(08-15-2017 12:16 PM)flyingswoosh Wrote: [ -> ] (08-15-2017 12:10 PM)stever20 Wrote: [ -> ] (08-15-2017 11:30 AM)flyingswoosh Wrote: [ -> ] (08-15-2017 10:58 AM)stever20 Wrote: [ -> ]but the 2 things that most voters look at 1st are ERA and Wins. 2.51 isn't great by any measure. 14 wins means he's going to be lucky to get to 20. If he's 18-6 with a 2.50 ERA he has no chance to win MVP. Like it or not, but a lot of voters feel like a pitchers #1 job is to prevent runs. It's not to accumulate k's. Like was said a few years ago, the Cy Young award isn't the Cy Whiff award.
Also, Fenway park isn't an offensive park. Just looked at ESPN's stats, and right now it's #16 in runs and #28 in homers(only Petco and AT&T are lower). Also, the league ERA for AL is 4.35, NL is 4.31. So not that huge gap that you normally see.
But you keep forgetting context. The average ERA for an AL starter this season is 4.56. Last season it was 4.42. In 2015 it was 4.14. So, relative to 2015 his 2.51 ERA. The AL ERA leader in 2015 was Price at 2.45. I'd say Sale's currently blows that out of the water, wouldn't you? None of these stats are advanced, they're just accounting for the differences in era
but do you REALLY think the Voters are going to look at things that closely? I sure as hell don't. You are saying what the voters should do. You keep on wanting them to do what they should do. But that's just not realistic.
And voters will see Kluber real close by and that will diminish Sale to some degree for MVP consideration. I just don't think voters would look at a 2.50 ERA and be blown away when they've seen Kershaw in 6 of the last 7 years much better than that(highest one in those 6 years was only 2.28). Verlander in 2011 won with a 2.40 ERA. But there again, he had 24 wins. To win MVP, you have to check off at least 1 of the traditional wins or ERA check box.
firstly, i never said he will win MVP, just that I think he should. But overall I do think today's voters are slightly better informed and more reasonable than they used to be. Mostly because many obsolete writers lost their voting privileges. Also, I feel like grassroots internet campaigns hold greater sway than ever. Look at Jonah Keri's crusade to get Tim Raines into the HOF
might be true..... for the HOF. But the voters haven't changed for the MVP awards.
Also, I think you had a lot of grassroots 2 years ago for NL Cy Young with Kershaw- and that didn't go far at all. Traditional metrics still rule the day, and it's not even close.
(08-15-2017 01:14 PM)Brookes Owl Wrote: [ -> ] (08-14-2017 04:00 PM)flyingswoosh Wrote: [ -> ]Fangraphs makes the case that Sale should be the current front runner for MVP. Like I had said a few weeks ago, he's not just having a great season, but rather an historic one.
On the other hand, bWAR doesn't have him nearly that far in front. Still in the conversation for sure but at this point 3rd in the AL:
1. Scherzer • WSN 6.6
2. Altuve • HOU 6.4
3. Simmons • LAA 6.3
4. Sale • BOS 5.7
5. Goldschmidt • ARI 5.6
6. Judge • NYY 5.6
7. Votto • CIN 5.5
8. Gonzalez • WSN 5.4
9. Kluber • CLE 5.3
10. Greinke • ARI 5.2
Frustrating that the two most common calcs for WAR can be so far apart.
the thing is like this shows- Sale isn't even to a lot of folks having the best season for a pitcher this year. Scherzer is. A LOT of voters don't give 1 iota for FIP or any of the advanced metrics. And that's Sale's problem.
(08-15-2017 02:20 PM)stever20 Wrote: [ -> ] (08-15-2017 01:14 PM)Brookes Owl Wrote: [ -> ] (08-14-2017 04:00 PM)flyingswoosh Wrote: [ -> ]Fangraphs makes the case that Sale should be the current front runner for MVP. Like I had said a few weeks ago, he's not just having a great season, but rather an historic one.
On the other hand, bWAR doesn't have him nearly that far in front. Still in the conversation for sure but at this point 3rd in the AL:
1. Scherzer • WSN 6.6
2. Altuve • HOU 6.4
3. Simmons • LAA 6.3
4. Sale • BOS 5.7
5. Goldschmidt • ARI 5.6
6. Judge • NYY 5.6
7. Votto • CIN 5.5
8. Gonzalez • WSN 5.4
9. Kluber • CLE 5.3
10. Greinke • ARI 5.2
Frustrating that the two most common calcs for WAR can be so far apart.
the thing is like this shows- Sale isn't even to a lot of folks having the best season for a pitcher this year. Scherzer is. A LOT of voters don't give 1 iota for FIP or any of the advanced metrics. And that's Sale's problem.
anyone who thinks Scherzer is having a better season than Sale is a total fool. Scherzer's had a dominant season, but it's clear Sale has been the best pitcher in baseball. Doesn't hurt to pitch in the NL East
why because your precious FIP says so? i'm sorry- but Scherzer has given up 0.26 ERA fewer than Sale. Sorry but I could make the argument that Sale was the 3rd best pitcher in baseball this year. Behind Scherzer and yes, Kershaw. A pitchers job is to not give up runs. Sales year this year isn't in the top 4 of seasons just since 2014. Give me Greinke, Arrieta, and Kershaw in '15 and then Kershaw in '14. And Sale isn't close to ANY of those 5.
(08-15-2017 02:16 PM)stever20 Wrote: [ -> ] (08-15-2017 12:16 PM)flyingswoosh Wrote: [ -> ]But overall I do think today's voters are slightly better informed and more reasonable than they used to be. Mostly because many obsolete writers lost their voting privileges. Also, I feel like grassroots internet campaigns hold greater sway than ever. Look at Jonah Keri's crusade to get Tim Raines into the HOF
might be true..... for the HOF. But the voters haven't changed for the MVP awards.
Is it even true for the Hall? It took 10 years to convince enough voters about Raines, and even at that, Raines' case is easily explainable in terms of traditional stats (e.g., in addition to all of his stolen bases and runs scored, he had about as many hits + walks as Tony Gwynn in roughly the same number of career ABs).
(08-15-2017 05:15 PM)stever20 Wrote: [ -> ]why because your precious FIP says so? i'm sorry- but Scherzer has given up 0.26 ERA fewer than Sale. Sorry but I could make the argument that Sale was the 3rd best pitcher in baseball this year. Behind Scherzer and yes, Kershaw. A pitchers job is to not give up runs. Sales year this year isn't in the top 4 of seasons just since 2014. Give me Greinke, Arrieta, and Kershaw in '15 and then Kershaw in '14. And Sale isn't close to ANY of those 5.
Sale has more K's, fewer BB, fewer HR and doesn't get to pitch against the pitcher. He also faces the AL east, which unlike its counterpart in the NL, is not one of the worst divisions of all time. And to act like a pitcher is solely responsible for the number of runs on the board is sheer lunacy. If you polled 100 people around baseball I guarantee nearly all of them would say Sale has been the best pitcher in baseball this season
The NL East isn't flipping close to one of the worst divisions of all time. I mean right now, it's 277-309 as a division. It's barely the worst division in baseball this year- the AL Central is 282-306.
What is sheer lunacy is to think a pitcher only can control homers walks and k's. That's the biggest problem that the advanced metrics have. Sale has given up 5 more doubles than Scherzer and 1 more triple, but we're supposed to ignore that. bull****.
Also, voters just haven't shown the indication that they're going to ignore the ERA anywhere near as much as you want them to.
(08-16-2017 09:07 AM)stever20 Wrote: [ -> ]The NL East isn't flipping close to one of the worst divisions of all time. I mean right now, it's 277-309 as a division. It's barely the worst division in baseball this year- the AL Central is 282-306.
What is sheer lunacy is to think a pitcher only can control homers walks and k's. That's the biggest problem that the advanced metrics have. Sale has given up 5 more doubles than Scherzer and 1 more triple, but we're supposed to ignore that. bull****.
Also, voters just haven't shown the indication that they're going to ignore the ERA anywhere near as much as you want them to.
I'll ask this one question: do you think Scherzer is having a better season than Sale?
(08-16-2017 09:07 AM)stever20 Wrote: [ -> ]The NL East isn't flipping close to one of the worst divisions of all time. I mean right now, it's 277-309 as a division. It's barely the worst division in baseball this year- the AL Central is 282-306.
Slightly manipulating the data, as the overall record in the central is heavily skewed by the Sox. Must be nice to be Scherzer: 12 starts (he's made 24 so far) against teams currently 10+ games below .500. Sale's had 5. But yeah, Scherzer's had the better season because his team has allowed a few less runs. You're essentially ignoring context and looking at one number
(08-16-2017 09:07 AM)stever20 Wrote: [ -> ]What is sheer lunacy is to think a pitcher only can control homers walks and k's. That's the biggest problem that the advanced metrics have.
You know that's a mischaracterization, right? Homers/walks/hpb/Ks are the only things that are 100% within a pitchers control. Everything else has some level of outside influence. But we shouldn't look at FIP in a vacuum either; ERA is valuable as well.
Quote:Also, voters just haven't shown the indication that they're going to ignore the ERA anywhere near as much as you want them to.
Agree with this for the most part - but I don't think even sabermatricians think ERA ought to be ignored. Just balanced with other stats and not looked at in isolation.
(08-16-2017 12:50 PM)flyingswoosh Wrote: [ -> ] (08-16-2017 09:07 AM)stever20 Wrote: [ -> ]The NL East isn't flipping close to one of the worst divisions of all time. I mean right now, it's 277-309 as a division. It's barely the worst division in baseball this year- the AL Central is 282-306.
Slightly manipulating the data, as the overall record in the central is heavily skewed by the Sox. Must be nice to be Scherzer: 12 starts (he's made 24 so far) against teams currently 10+ games below .500. Sale's had 5. But yeah, Scherzer's had the better season because his team has allowed a few less runs. You're essentially ignoring context and looking at one number
The NL East has a bad team as well in the Phillies, who are worse than the White Sox.
Sale has made 1 more start vs a winning team this year. Just 1.
but look at the quality of the starts vs winning teams...
Scherzer 5-1 1.84 ERA with 13/71 bb/k ratio
Sale- 4-1 2.98 ERA with 13/78 bb/k ratio
Also your stat about teams that more than 10 games under .500- what a joke. Considering that the Braves and Mets are 11 games under .500 and Scherzer has made 6 starts vs them. So in starts vs teams more than 11 games under .500 Sale has 5, Scherzer 4.
(08-16-2017 01:46 PM)Brookes Owl Wrote: [ -> ] (08-16-2017 09:07 AM)stever20 Wrote: [ -> ]What is sheer lunacy is to think a pitcher only can control homers walks and k's. That's the biggest problem that the advanced metrics have.
You know that's a mischaracterization, right? Homers/walks/hpb/Ks are the only things that are 100% within a pitchers control. Everything else has some level of outside influence. But we shouldn't look at FIP in a vacuum either; ERA is valuable as well.
Quote:Also, voters just haven't shown the indication that they're going to ignore the ERA anywhere near as much as you want them to.
Agree with this for the most part - but I don't think even sabermatricians think ERA ought to be ignored. Just balanced with other stats and not looked at in isolation.
I'm sorry but 90% of doubles and triples are completely within a pitchers control. You get the occasional cheap one, but those are few and far between. And if you say well it's because of the park- well guess what, Fenway allows the 3rd fewest homers in MLB. So you can't have your cake and eat it too.
Bottom line, for a pitcher to get MVP, he's got to have to have the great traditional stats. Sale doesn't. Swoosh can act on what the voters should be thinking. The fact is that they don't think like that.
(08-16-2017 02:18 PM)stever20 Wrote: [ -> ] (08-16-2017 01:46 PM)Brookes Owl Wrote: [ -> ] (08-16-2017 09:07 AM)stever20 Wrote: [ -> ]What is sheer lunacy is to think a pitcher only can control homers walks and k's. That's the biggest problem that the advanced metrics have.
You know that's a mischaracterization, right? Homers/walks/hpb/Ks are the only things that are 100% within a pitchers control. Everything else has some level of outside influence. But we shouldn't look at FIP in a vacuum either; ERA is valuable as well.
Quote:Also, voters just haven't shown the indication that they're going to ignore the ERA anywhere near as much as you want them to.
Agree with this for the most part - but I don't think even sabermatricians think ERA ought to be ignored. Just balanced with other stats and not looked at in isolation.
I'm sorry but 90% of doubles and triples are completely within a pitchers control. You get the occasional cheap one, but those are few and far between. And if you say well it's because of the park- well guess what, Fenway allows the 3rd fewest homers in MLB. So you can't have your cake and eat it too.
Triples 90%? No way. Triples are highly controlled by park factors and runner speed. Doubles, ok, but is it 90%, 80%, 91.5%? Doesn't matter. FIP exists because it's useful to see how a pitcher does with the things that only he can control. You bring ERA in to see how he also does with the things that he has only partial control. You don't dismiss either - they are both useful tools!
Quote:Bottom line, for a pitcher to get MVP, he's got to have to have the great traditional stats. Sale doesn't. Swoosh can act on what the voters should be thinking. The fact is that they don't think like that.
Heh - this is very similar to the argument we were having over Sale/Kluber for Cy Young. swoosh already said he's not claiming Sale will win the MVP. Don't you think Sale at least belongs in the discussion?
(08-16-2017 03:02 PM)Brookes Owl Wrote: [ -> ] (08-16-2017 02:18 PM)stever20 Wrote: [ -> ] (08-16-2017 01:46 PM)Brookes Owl Wrote: [ -> ] (08-16-2017 09:07 AM)stever20 Wrote: [ -> ]What is sheer lunacy is to think a pitcher only can control homers walks and k's. That's the biggest problem that the advanced metrics have.
You know that's a mischaracterization, right? Homers/walks/hpb/Ks are the only things that are 100% within a pitchers control. Everything else has some level of outside influence. But we shouldn't look at FIP in a vacuum either; ERA is valuable as well.
Quote:Also, voters just haven't shown the indication that they're going to ignore the ERA anywhere near as much as you want them to.
Agree with this for the most part - but I don't think even sabermatricians think ERA ought to be ignored. Just balanced with other stats and not looked at in isolation.
I'm sorry but 90% of doubles and triples are completely within a pitchers control. You get the occasional cheap one, but those are few and far between. And if you say well it's because of the park- well guess what, Fenway allows the 3rd fewest homers in MLB. So you can't have your cake and eat it too.
Triples 90%? No way. Triples are highly controlled by park factors and runner speed. Doubles, ok, but is it 90%, 80%, 91.5%? Doesn't matter. FIP exists because it's useful to see how a pitcher does with the things that only he can control. You bring ERA in to see how he also does with the things that he has only partial control. You don't dismiss either - they are both useful tools!
Quote:Bottom line, for a pitcher to get MVP, he's got to have to have the great traditional stats. Sale doesn't. Swoosh can act on what the voters should be thinking. The fact is that they don't think like that.
Heh - this is very similar to the argument we were having over Sale/Kluber for Cy Young. swoosh already said he's not claiming Sale will win the MVP. Don't you think Sale at least belongs in the discussion?
Thank you. I don't think he'll win it, but you could certainly build a strong case
right now Sale has almost no chance at all. He doesn't have the resume that would garner any serious consideration for a pitcher. A non 20 win pitcher with a mid 2 ERA is not going to get much serious consideration at all whatsoever.
And I'm sorry but to act like pitchers can't control extra base hits is why I have such a huge problem with advanced metrics. And why they haven't taken over like they could. Because traditional voters know that pitchers absolutely control more batted balls than just home runs.
(08-16-2017 04:28 PM)stever20 Wrote: [ -> ]And I'm sorry but to act like pitchers can't control extra base hits is why I have such a huge problem with advanced metrics. And why they haven't taken over like they could. Because traditional voters know that pitchers absolutely control more batted balls than just home runs.
I can't tell if you're making up yet another straw man, are being obtuse, or if you believe something that's impossible. NOBODY says pitchers have NO control over extra base hits, in this thread or elsewhere. FIP isn't a be-all-end-all solution for evaluating pitchers. But it is one (the?) way to isolate on items that are 100% within a pitchers control. All other pitcher-batter outcomes are at least partially influenced by other actors but no one has a way to allocate that influence. So, we all recognize that FIP is missing some data. AND, we all recognize that ERA has too much data. I won't speak for swoosh but my own frustration is that ERA gets too much weight and FIP doesn't get enough (hell, it's pretty much ignored by most writers over 50 and almost exclusively ignored by writers over 60).