(06-30-2017 08:20 AM)stever20 Wrote: [ -> ]oh, remember how close we came last month to set the most hr in a month record. I think it's safe to say that will get broken actually tonight. Right now had 1068 this month. The record? 1069.
Dodgers just set a franchise record for HRs in one month: 50. The franchise, by the way, is 134 years old.
Juiced!
(06-30-2017 11:24 AM)stever20 Wrote: [ -> ]I wouldn't say that Zimmerman has totally died. I mean, even in June he's had 4 homers and 18 RBI in 22 games. even his wRC+ is over 100 still. Is he white hot like he started? No, but as long as he can do what he's done even in June, the Nats will be fine. Definitely no black hole.
Taylor has been huge. Both May and June he's been over .280 avg. 7 homers this month. If he can continue close to how he's done, the Nats are in excellent shape.
The pen is the absolute key right now. Nats have 6 losses after leading after 8th innings. To put this number in context, the Giants last year lost 9 games after leading after 8 innings.
Earlier in the year we talked about Zimmerman's inevitable regression to the mean, and I think we generally agreed that his (and the team's) hot start, along with the weakness of the NL East, meant that as long as Zimmerman could be somewhere near league average WAR for the second half they'd be ok. Because their lead is big and the division is SO bad, I think even with Turner out they'll be fine. But the playoffs are going to be a challenge if they can't improve the bullpen.
And of course I can't resist pointing out that Zimmerman's decline has been nicely offset by Rendon's incredible surge. His April was pretty pedestrian: OPS of .768. Since his 6-6 game at the end of April? OPS of 1.037 in May and 1.089 in June. The guy went from 4th or 5th in NL 3B WAR to a clear #1 (nod to Justin Turner but he was out, so lags in PAs).
yeah, no matter what the hitting situation is, if the pen doesn't improve to just meh levels even, it won't matter.
I know one thing- watching these last 4 days, I'd love to see a Cubs/Nats series. Great games.
(06-30-2017 01:46 PM)stever20 Wrote: [ -> ]yeah, no matter what the hitting situation is, if the pen doesn't improve to just meh levels even, it won't matter.
I know one thing- watching these last 4 days, I'd love to see a Cubs/Nats series. Great games.
yeah i wasn't talking about moves they need to make for the regular season, but rather for the post season
just wanted to wish everyone a very Happy Bobby Bonilla Day!!! He gets his 1.19 million from the Mets today(every year from now until 2035).
With 6 shutout innings so far today, Sale's ERA is down to 2.63 with 165 K's in 119.2 innings. If the Sox win he'll be 11-3. Vargas still has a really good ERA, and keuchel has no timetable for return. He's going to attempt to throw off a mound this weekend and if all goes well I'm sure they'll develop a timeline
Yeah, Sale's really benefitted from the Keuchel injury as it has pretty close to eliminate him from the race, unless he can come back immediately after the break....
I think the guy to watch in the race is Kluber. If Kluber can keep up this month- 4-0 with a 1.26 ERA and a 7/64 bb/k ratio in 6 dominant starts, he's going to get in the race. Both guys have only 1 start before the break. Kluber vs Padres and Sale vs Tampa Bay.
in the NL- 2 guy race now IMO with Scherzer with a big lead on Kershaw. I think if it was close, you might see Kershaw given a lifetime achievement type of thing. But right now, it's not close.
in other things- Greinke with a HUGE win yesterday for the D'backs. ended a 3 game losing streak- just what aces should do. Huge game today for the D'backs as a win and they're 3-3 this week vs Cards/Rockies and then if they can get a win vs the Dodgers this week(just 1) and then take 2-3 from the Reds, they'd leave this 2 week stretch no worse than 6-6.
(07-02-2017 10:40 AM)stever20 Wrote: [ -> ]in the NL- 2 guy race now IMO with Scherzer with a big lead on Kershaw. I think if it was close, you might see Kershaw given a lifetime achievement type of thing. But right now, it's not close.
It's closer than you think. In fact, the Bill James CY tracker has Kershaw ahead. I didn't run the numbers but I assume it's largely because of wins. The Tom Tango tracker has Scherzer ahead. Again, I'm not arguing better pitcher - I don't think there's much debate that Scherzer is more effective. He's lost games where his game score was better than a bunch of Kershaw's GSc from wins. Voters are old, and their methods have inertia. But I'm guessing that the Kershaw pattern of 25% crap starts will take a more significant toll on his CY votes as the season progresses.
The guy who's killing it right now is Alex Wood. Pitching like a #1: 9-0, 1.83 ERA, 2.11 FIP, 75 innings, 87 strikeouts, 2.6 rWAR, 2.8 fWAR
I know the innings are low but it's kinda hard to leave that guy off the All Star team, isn't it?
(07-02-2017 10:40 AM)stever20 Wrote: [ -> ]Yeah, Sale's really benefitted from the Keuchel injury as it has pretty close to eliminate him from the race, unless he can come back immediately after the break....
But he's also doing what we discussed earlier might be a possibility: He's back much closer to the results he had for the first month + of the season. He had a stretch of 5 bad games over 7 starts that had his trajectory heading down (except for Ks which have been consistent). But he's only given up 5 runs in his last 4 starts so it does look like he's back to where he was earlier. Can he stay there? Dunno, but if he does his ERA is going to come back down and will be much closer to Keuchel if he does come back soon. Right now the trackers have Sale with a clear lead and his closest competitor is Vargas. Kluber's not close. Peripherals are very good but he just doesn't have the wins.
(07-03-2017 01:23 AM)Brookes Owl Wrote: [ -> ] (07-02-2017 10:40 AM)stever20 Wrote: [ -> ]in the NL- 2 guy race now IMO with Scherzer with a big lead on Kershaw. I think if it was close, you might see Kershaw given a lifetime achievement type of thing. But right now, it's not close.
It's closer than you think. In fact, the Bill James CY tracker has Kershaw ahead. I didn't run the numbers but I assume it's largely because of wins. The Tom Tango tracker has Scherzer ahead. Again, I'm not arguing better pitcher - I don't think there's much debate that Scherzer is more effective. He's lost games where his game score was better than a bunch of Kershaw's GSc from wins. Voters are old, and their methods have inertia. But I'm guessing that the Kershaw pattern of 25% crap starts will take a more significant toll on his CY votes as the season progresses.
The guy who's killing it right now is Alex Wood. Pitching like a #1: 9-0, 1.83 ERA, 2.11 FIP, 75 innings, 87 strikeouts, 2.6 rWAR, 2.8 fWAR
I know the innings are low but it's kinda hard to leave that guy off the All Star team, isn't it?
It's pretty much totally due to the W-L record. And that's of everything the most meaningless of all the traditional things now. If Scherzer keeps his ERA under 2, he's got it.
In the AL, Kluber is a lot closer than you think.... ERA gap is only 0.40 which is 1 bad start by Sale.
In short with both races, the W/L record is pretty meaningless. ERA is a LOT bigger. The only time when W/L means much with voting is if a guy that 20 wins or something like that.
(07-03-2017 11:37 PM)stever20 Wrote: [ -> ] (07-03-2017 01:23 AM)Brookes Owl Wrote: [ -> ] (07-02-2017 10:40 AM)stever20 Wrote: [ -> ]in the NL- 2 guy race now IMO with Scherzer with a big lead on Kershaw. I think if it was close, you might see Kershaw given a lifetime achievement type of thing. But right now, it's not close.
It's closer than you think. In fact, the Bill James CY tracker has Kershaw ahead. I didn't run the numbers but I assume it's largely because of wins. The Tom Tango tracker has Scherzer ahead. Again, I'm not arguing better pitcher - I don't think there's much debate that Scherzer is more effective. He's lost games where his game score was better than a bunch of Kershaw's GSc from wins. Voters are old, and their methods have inertia. But I'm guessing that the Kershaw pattern of 25% crap starts will take a more significant toll on his CY votes as the season progresses.
The guy who's killing it right now is Alex Wood. Pitching like a #1: 9-0, 1.83 ERA, 2.11 FIP, 75 innings, 87 strikeouts, 2.6 rWAR, 2.8 fWAR
I know the innings are low but it's kinda hard to leave that guy off the All Star team, isn't it?
In the AL, Kluber is a lot closer than you think.... ERA gap is only 0.40 which is 1 bad start by Sale.
Hard to take this one seriously. Kluber has basically been a slightly poor man's version of Sale, but in 5 fewer starts and 40 fewer innings. His ERA is .41 worse, his K's are worse, BB are worse and he's given up more HR. Sure, Sale is a couple poor starts from an ERA matching Kluber, but we all know the latter is equally likely to post a stinker. How many times have we talked about his propensity to have a game where he doesn't just lose, but gets slaughtered?
(07-03-2017 11:37 PM)stever20 Wrote: [ -> ]In short with both races, the W/L record is pretty meaningless. ERA is a LOT bigger. The only time when W/L means much with voting is if a guy that 20 wins or something like that.
You keep arguing how voters OUGHT to vote but that's not how they DO vote.
(07-04-2017 07:02 AM)flyingswoosh Wrote: [ -> ] (07-03-2017 11:37 PM)stever20 Wrote: [ -> ] (07-03-2017 01:23 AM)Brookes Owl Wrote: [ -> ] (07-02-2017 10:40 AM)stever20 Wrote: [ -> ]in the NL- 2 guy race now IMO with Scherzer with a big lead on Kershaw. I think if it was close, you might see Kershaw given a lifetime achievement type of thing. But right now, it's not close.
It's closer than you think. In fact, the Bill James CY tracker has Kershaw ahead. I didn't run the numbers but I assume it's largely because of wins. The Tom Tango tracker has Scherzer ahead. Again, I'm not arguing better pitcher - I don't think there's much debate that Scherzer is more effective. He's lost games where his game score was better than a bunch of Kershaw's GSc from wins. Voters are old, and their methods have inertia. But I'm guessing that the Kershaw pattern of 25% crap starts will take a more significant toll on his CY votes as the season progresses.
The guy who's killing it right now is Alex Wood. Pitching like a #1: 9-0, 1.83 ERA, 2.11 FIP, 75 innings, 87 strikeouts, 2.6 rWAR, 2.8 fWAR
I know the innings are low but it's kinda hard to leave that guy off the All Star team, isn't it?
In the AL, Kluber is a lot closer than you think.... ERA gap is only 0.40 which is 1 bad start by Sale.
Hard to take this one seriously. Kluber has basically been a slightly poor man's version of Sale, but in 5 fewer starts and 40 fewer innings. His ERA is .41 worse, his K's are worse, BB are worse and he's given up more HR. Sure, Sale is a couple poor starts from an ERA matching Kluber, but we all know the latter is equally likely to post a stinker. How many times have we talked about his propensity to have a game where he doesn't just lose, but gets slaughtered?
Yeah, his game log looks like a roller coaster. In fact, it looks a little like Kershaw's, except his lows are lower and more frequent. He'd have to leap frog about half a dozen guys to get in the conversation.
(07-04-2017 08:36 AM)Brookes Owl Wrote: [ -> ] (07-03-2017 11:37 PM)stever20 Wrote: [ -> ]In short with both races, the W/L record is pretty meaningless. ERA is a LOT bigger. The only time when W/L means much with voting is if a guy that 20 wins or something like that.
You keep arguing how voters OUGHT to vote but that's not how they DO vote.
Actually win loss record has meant less in the last 5-6 years. Really since King Felix won the Cy Young award with a 13-12 record- but with a 2.27 ERA. That year David Price was 19-6 2.72 and CC Sabathia was 21-7 with a 3.18. That year, in the predictor, Felix was #7.
I just think to voters the ERA and strikeouts(in that order) mean more than just W-L record. If Scherzer has a sub 2 ERA(to a 2.50 ERA for Kershaw) and has 50 more K's than Kershaw has- 2-3 more wins isn't overcoming that.
(07-04-2017 07:02 AM)flyingswoosh Wrote: [ -> ] (07-03-2017 11:37 PM)stever20 Wrote: [ -> ] (07-03-2017 01:23 AM)Brookes Owl Wrote: [ -> ] (07-02-2017 10:40 AM)stever20 Wrote: [ -> ]in the NL- 2 guy race now IMO with Scherzer with a big lead on Kershaw. I think if it was close, you might see Kershaw given a lifetime achievement type of thing. But right now, it's not close.
It's closer than you think. In fact, the Bill James CY tracker has Kershaw ahead. I didn't run the numbers but I assume it's largely because of wins. The Tom Tango tracker has Scherzer ahead. Again, I'm not arguing better pitcher - I don't think there's much debate that Scherzer is more effective. He's lost games where his game score was better than a bunch of Kershaw's GSc from wins. Voters are old, and their methods have inertia. But I'm guessing that the Kershaw pattern of 25% crap starts will take a more significant toll on his CY votes as the season progresses.
The guy who's killing it right now is Alex Wood. Pitching like a #1: 9-0, 1.83 ERA, 2.11 FIP, 75 innings, 87 strikeouts, 2.6 rWAR, 2.8 fWAR
I know the innings are low but it's kinda hard to leave that guy off the All Star team, isn't it?
In the AL, Kluber is a lot closer than you think.... ERA gap is only 0.40 which is 1 bad start by Sale.
Hard to take this one seriously. Kluber has basically been a slightly poor man's version of Sale, but in 5 fewer starts and 40 fewer innings. His ERA is .41 worse, his K's are worse, BB are worse and he's given up more HR. Sure, Sale is a couple poor starts from an ERA matching Kluber, but we all know the latter is equally likely to post a stinker. How many times have we talked about his propensity to have a game where he doesn't just lose, but gets slaughtered?
I don't think voters really look at # of starts or innings all that closely. Definitely not as closely as you do. Sale needs to maintain what he's doing. He really does. If Kluber can do the rest of the year what he did in June(and that's a gigantic if admittedly), Sale will need to be pretty damn good to beat it.
one thing- Kluber will make a start up this week vs Sale as he's moving up to start today and then he'll start on Sunday. So at the break, Sale will have only 4 more starts than Kluber. Then Kluber could easily get started earlier after the break than Sale, who will start the all star game you would think.
So lets say Kluber has 2 great starts this week- 1 ER in 15 innings(which is what he did last 2 starts). His ERA at the break would be only 2.64. He could be 8-2 or 9-2 with that ERA as well....
Sale's ERA right now is 11-3 with a 2.61 ERA. So it could be really close. And with the fewer innings, Kluber's ERA will be a lot more easily impacted by the starts if they're really good or really bad.
Joe Ross with another pretty decent start today so far vs Mets- 2 runs in 6 innings. last 4 starts he's given up now only 7 er in 25.2 ip- a 2.45 ERA. Pretty big given the struggles of Roark. You'd think if this continues, Ross would be that 4th starter and Roark would be used in the pen(where he's had some success in years past).
oh and stop where you have heard this before..... The Nats have 9 runs to support Ross. It's actually lower than normal(he normally gets 10.3 runs per game start).
(07-04-2017 09:31 AM)stever20 Wrote: [ -> ] (07-04-2017 07:02 AM)flyingswoosh Wrote: [ -> ] (07-03-2017 11:37 PM)stever20 Wrote: [ -> ] (07-03-2017 01:23 AM)Brookes Owl Wrote: [ -> ] (07-02-2017 10:40 AM)stever20 Wrote: [ -> ]in the NL- 2 guy race now IMO with Scherzer with a big lead on Kershaw. I think if it was close, you might see Kershaw given a lifetime achievement type of thing. But right now, it's not close.
It's closer than you think. In fact, the Bill James CY tracker has Kershaw ahead. I didn't run the numbers but I assume it's largely because of wins. The Tom Tango tracker has Scherzer ahead. Again, I'm not arguing better pitcher - I don't think there's much debate that Scherzer is more effective. He's lost games where his game score was better than a bunch of Kershaw's GSc from wins. Voters are old, and their methods have inertia. But I'm guessing that the Kershaw pattern of 25% crap starts will take a more significant toll on his CY votes as the season progresses.
The guy who's killing it right now is Alex Wood. Pitching like a #1: 9-0, 1.83 ERA, 2.11 FIP, 75 innings, 87 strikeouts, 2.6 rWAR, 2.8 fWAR
I know the innings are low but it's kinda hard to leave that guy off the All Star team, isn't it?
In the AL, Kluber is a lot closer than you think.... ERA gap is only 0.40 which is 1 bad start by Sale.
Hard to take this one seriously. Kluber has basically been a slightly poor man's version of Sale, but in 5 fewer starts and 40 fewer innings. His ERA is .41 worse, his K's are worse, BB are worse and he's given up more HR. Sure, Sale is a couple poor starts from an ERA matching Kluber, but we all know the latter is equally likely to post a stinker. How many times have we talked about his propensity to have a game where he doesn't just lose, but gets slaughtered?
I don't think voters really look at # of starts or innings all that closely. Definitely not as closely as you do. Sale needs to maintain what he's doing. He really does. If Kluber can do the rest of the year what he did in June(and that's a gigantic if admittedly), Sale will need to be pretty damn good to beat it.
His ERA in June was 1.26. It's not a question of if, because it definitely won't happen. But sure, if he puts up a 1.26 ERA the rest of the way, then he'll win the Cy Young. You won't get an argument from me for that hypothetical
Meanwhile, Kershaw's ERA is down to 2.19. I guess he's ok after all
(07-05-2017 07:31 AM)flyingswoosh Wrote: [ -> ] (07-04-2017 09:31 AM)stever20 Wrote: [ -> ] (07-04-2017 07:02 AM)flyingswoosh Wrote: [ -> ] (07-03-2017 11:37 PM)stever20 Wrote: [ -> ] (07-03-2017 01:23 AM)Brookes Owl Wrote: [ -> ]It's closer than you think. In fact, the Bill James CY tracker has Kershaw ahead. I didn't run the numbers but I assume it's largely because of wins. The Tom Tango tracker has Scherzer ahead. Again, I'm not arguing better pitcher - I don't think there's much debate that Scherzer is more effective. He's lost games where his game score was better than a bunch of Kershaw's GSc from wins. Voters are old, and their methods have inertia. But I'm guessing that the Kershaw pattern of 25% crap starts will take a more significant toll on his CY votes as the season progresses.
The guy who's killing it right now is Alex Wood. Pitching like a #1: 9-0, 1.83 ERA, 2.11 FIP, 75 innings, 87 strikeouts, 2.6 rWAR, 2.8 fWAR
I know the innings are low but it's kinda hard to leave that guy off the All Star team, isn't it?
In the AL, Kluber is a lot closer than you think.... ERA gap is only 0.40 which is 1 bad start by Sale.
Hard to take this one seriously. Kluber has basically been a slightly poor man's version of Sale, but in 5 fewer starts and 40 fewer innings. His ERA is .41 worse, his K's are worse, BB are worse and he's given up more HR. Sure, Sale is a couple poor starts from an ERA matching Kluber, but we all know the latter is equally likely to post a stinker. How many times have we talked about his propensity to have a game where he doesn't just lose, but gets slaughtered?
I don't think voters really look at # of starts or innings all that closely. Definitely not as closely as you do. Sale needs to maintain what he's doing. He really does. If Kluber can do the rest of the year what he did in June(and that's a gigantic if admittedly), Sale will need to be pretty damn good to beat it.
His ERA in June was 1.26. It's not a question of if, because it definitely won't happen. But sure, if he puts up a 1.26 ERA the rest of the way, then he'll win the Cy Young. You won't get an argument from me for that hypothetical
my point right now is that they're both pretty darn close in the stat that voters look at the most....
Sale- 2.61 ERA
Kluber- 2.85 ERA
I'm not saying right now that Kluber would win. But it's definitely close enough to where he may be Sale's biggest threat right now.
And what's so fun about these 2 is both are so prone to awful games. So we could see that race really get fun.