(09-10-2024 02:45 PM)Eldonabe Wrote: (09-10-2024 01:47 PM)tanqtonic Wrote: Given the macro scale of issues that go into the price of oil, no US Presidential policies gave affected tat I any meaningful matter at this point.
The policies out Saudi, still the swing producer, the private channels of the US shale stream, Russia, and any multitude of economic shocks - the policies of any President yo this poibt of time have only slightly affected the issue of oil price.
No matter your rapt reverence of St. Trump.
Let me go extreme for a minute - Do you think [just for a second] that if Trump or Harris said tomorrow, and then started the process the next day, the US will no longer buy foreign oil within 24 months, and we will no long export our own oil... we will be self sustaining that world oil prices would not change?
First, the last figures show us *right at* the boundary as being a net importer v net exporter. I think there is *still* a 2 million-ish bb/mo. surplus, just eking us into net exports currently.
The problem is in the refineries. US oil is made of mainly made of lighter, sweeter stuff (West Texas Intermediate, for example). Us refineries use heavier, sourer crudes.
There has been *zero* new refinery infrastructure in the US in 30 years, And close to zero 'upgrade' to the light sweet refining.
And I agree -- *if* the President made it the policy to go self-sustaining -- they could probably pass measures to do so *with* that drive from the President.
And by definition, even though we are a *current* exporter -- essentially what the US retains for itself in he US domestic production would free up the equivalent amount currently coming in from elsewhere. The US production now going out would get gobbled up by US consumption, and the current imports to the US that are being freed up would simply substitute into the 'hole created' by current US exports headed out that are now swallowed by the US.
Quote:Is it a stretch, yes, but could it happen, yes it actually could once the proper infrastructure was put in place. Is this really that extreme? Highly unlikely, but not impossible.
Lets scale it back a bit. Let's say that the president comes out and says, we will cut back out world usage of oil from 20% to 15% in 5 years. Do you think Saudi is just gonna say OK, business as usual until you pull back?
The mere threat of #1 would cause chaos in the Oil markets. The possibility of #2 is real if it is not served up as merely lip service and even then, the thread would cause oil companies to rethink and reprice things before they dry up.
You cannot tell me that a President's policy has no effect.
As for you comment "No matter your rapt reverence of St. Trump." You can piss off with all due respect... You have your chosen one and I have my chosen one.
You articulate why you choose her and I am trying to articulate why I choose him. In case you have not noticed I try to stay away from the platitudes with you. I respect your opinion despite not agreeing with it I am asking the same of you. If you want to degrade this into a pin-head contest I can do that too.
I said it better earlier -- "the policies of any President to this point of time have only slightly affected the issue of oil price."
I dont see the big effect on oil price even in your scenario above -- since the US would simply be 'trading out' domestic for foreign.
The only manner in which the *could* affect the price of oil is if we increase net exports to the level of at least a 'medium' member of OPEC -- which we are simply not at currently.
Not only that, the only time that would *really* effective is if we increased our production to rival the net exports of Saudi Arabia, or the net exports of Russia 3 years ago. Then the US becomes a swing producer by definition -- and has a serious say in the 'cost of oil game'.
And finally, remember that the avg cost of ongoing production in the US and Canada, excluding tar sands, is in the high 60's / bbl. Any price less than that for any length of time exceeding between 75 and 90 days means shut ins on high cost extraction. And, the avg cost needed for new plays (i.e. extraction + drillinng + exploration) is in the low to mid 70s now. If the cost of oil goes underneath that for more than 120 days, you see drilling rigs literally being shipped elsewhere.
And for the record, I have not chosen her. Odds are I will probably vote Libertarian. But I dont buy the canard that voting Trump means lower oil / gas prices as a result. Imo, macro forces have far outweighed anything any president has tried to implement.
Nor do I subscribe that Trump was wholly good for the US domestic industry. Parts were good, parts were withheld, and some parts were bad. Id give Trump a 3.5 / 10 for 'wholly supporting the US domestic OG business.'
And correspondingly I dont indict Biden for 'bad domestics industry, bad prices'. I'd give Biden a 30 / 10 for domestic US industry support -- and the raw prodction numbers bear out record US production currently, and a change into a small net exporter in that timeframe.
And neither President has implemented policies that materially affected the end price of gasoline, from what I see of the macro history.
And my apologies -- I misread the FOOL comment from Blue Dragon as coming from you. My bad, my mistake, and apologies for my return comment
Moving on...
