(09-10-2024 09:53 AM)Eldonabe Wrote: (09-10-2024 08:27 AM)tanqtonic Wrote: Oil prices plummeted in 2014 - 2016 due to several factors. It fell from a high of 108/bbl in April 2014 to 45/bbl in Sept 2015, and down to 26/bbl in Feb 2016 --- mainly due to the introduction of US shale and an economic downturn.
https://blogs.worldbank.org/en/developme...ght-charts
OPEC internally squabbled -- allowing that price to stay in the mid 40s for three years or so.
Russia and OPEC had a price war in 2020. Coupled with the Covid pandemic and huge loss in demand there was a large decrease in the oil price in Q1 2020 -- Q2 2020 -- and a corresponding dip in gas prices.
The quickly restarting economies in 2021 caused a very large mismatch between supplies and demand, lasting through 2023.
The Russia / OPEC price war was ended at least in part by intervention by Trump in 2020.
yes, you are correct, volatility in the time between 2014 and 2020 was low. Mainly due to the big rush of oil into the market from US shale in 2014-2015.
However, the price of extraction from that input has climbed to about $68 / bbl. Which has offset its impact on volatility.
Its asinine to think a US President has a major effect on the price of oil overall.
And it is worse than asinine to think that Trump can lower the cost of gas to 2014 - 2019 levels. Based on the economics of extraction - that would mean shutting in probaly 65% or more of US oil production. And quite frankly that only way that happens if Saudi simply turns on the spigots to full flow.
You are not quite fully correct. First off I agree with you that "the world" controls oil prices not the President of our country. But the President can influence prices for sure. I am pretty sure you agree with that.
The US President *can* do so. Mostly marginally.
Anything than a President can do in a substantial or meaningful manner simply has never happened.
The major thing that a President can do is affect US extraction, production, and refining (EPR) via internal policies.
In a discussion with Miko previously I brought up an assessment of both Biden and Trump relative to US extraction and production. (EP)
I am a firm advocate of the strongest US EP possible. Average cost US of already existing EP is 63-ish / bbl. Anything below that, for anything longer than 75 days, means the well is shut in. That price of 63-ish equates to a gallon of gas in the 2.25 range. At 1.50 gas -- that underlying imputed $/bbl means killing almost *all* domestic drilling and exploration, and probably about 50 - 60% of already producing domestic wells.
The current price/bbl in the high 70s allows full US EP, *and* almost full exploration and drilling programs.
Quote:Prices were not less volatile from 2014 to 2019 - Prices hit a high of 3.69 (06/14) and a low of 1.76 (01/16).
Right as the surge of new US shale come into play, and when OPEC finally got their **** together and stopped undercutting each other. Not to mention Russian undercutting of OPEC in that timeframe.
There was new steady state between '16 and early '20. None of which was materially affected by Trump policy.
Kudos to Trump for his early term expansion of Federal leases in 2017-2018. Which he severely cut back on in late 2018 to mid 2019. But neither of these moves materially affected the short or medium term price of oil, let alone gas.
During Trumps (pre-pandemic) time the High was 2.85 (05/19) and a low of 2.36 (12/19)
Below is a table from the US Energy Information Administration (a Government org)
EIA Gas price table
I posted back in March a review of this data... not biased to any point, just showing the facts. (I think this will work)
https://csnbbs.com/thread-988637-post-19...id19539787
Quote:You cite numerous "world events" which affected prices... fair and accurate. My point is that the volatility pre and post Trump was in a significantly larger range than during his tenure. It is a simple visual to observe, World events that affect oil prices where far more under control while Trump was in office and that is not just a coincidence.
A decent amount of the 'stabilization forces' in that time frame was due to issues that literally came about in the Obama administration. The surge in US shale was not a result of Trump policies at all. And to be fair, it occurred *even* in the afce of a hostile Obama administration.
The biggest impact to upward prices that marked the beginning of the Biden administration was the result of the massive imbalance in supply and demand that came about because of Covid. In short, during the 'Covid bust', production got shut in, exploration was curtailed. When the world economies rebounded, petroleum supplies simply were unable to follow.
Quote:Biden has done nothing on the world stage that would temper oil prices since the Covid effect wore off - nothing. I am not hanging this on Kamala, but I am not hearing anything from her that gives me any assurance that she will do anything on the world stage to settle things down either.
And apart from his first 6 mos. following the removal of a limited amount of US Federal leases, he has done nothing to materially harm the domestic producers. And the lease thing wasnt material at all.
And the *biggest* shock to oil prices overall has simply been the (somewhat) removal of Russian energy from the world market. And it hasnt really been removed, mind you. But the OPEC cartel had pretty much upticked the price to that point.
In all honesty -- there are a world of other honest issues to peg Biden/Harris/Dems with. One of the *major* issues is the stupid dump of government money into an already heated inflationary situation when they passed the Inflation Fighting Act (or whatever the hell they called it). Another is the crappy manner in which Biden sparked the bugout from Afghanistan.
Price of gas really isnt a good one on the facts to honestly tag them with.
