Aimless1
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RE: Coronavirus-realistic fear or hyped?
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03-27-2020 03:15 PM |
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Bronco'14
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RE: Coronavirus-realistic fear or hyped?
(03-27-2020 03:15 PM)Aimless1 Wrote:
I'd be curious to see breakdown by state.
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03-28-2020 08:13 AM |
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Boca Rocket
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RE: Coronavirus-realistic fear or hyped?
(03-28-2020 08:13 AM)Bronco14 Wrote: (03-27-2020 03:15 PM)Aimless1 Wrote:
I'd be curious to see breakdown by state.
Approximate Populations:
US 331,000,000
Italy 60,000,000
South Korea 51,000,000
Deaths per 1,000,000 pop:
South Korea 3
US 5
Italy 151
First case reported:US 1/20/20
US 1/20/20
South Korea 1/19/20
Italy 1/29/20
(This post was last modified: 03-28-2020 09:40 AM by Boca Rocket.)
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03-28-2020 09:31 AM |
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Aimless1
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RE: Coronavirus-realistic fear or hyped?
(This post was last modified: 03-28-2020 10:03 AM by Aimless1.)
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03-28-2020 10:02 AM |
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ess
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RE: Coronavirus-realistic fear or hyped?
(03-28-2020 10:02 AM)Aimless1 Wrote: Sobering stats worldwide:
621080 coronavirus cases reported
28662 deaths
17% death rate of those who contract the disease
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
Based on your quoted stats
28,662/621,080 is approximately a 4.6% death rate.
It looks to me like the 17% may be of hospitalized (not sure what "recovered/discharged" means) patients?
(This post was last modified: 03-28-2020 10:56 AM by ess.)
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03-28-2020 10:55 AM |
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Aimless1
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RE: Coronavirus-realistic fear or hyped?
Add the number of deaths to number recovered = total number of cases with an outcome
28662 deaths divided by $166025 cases with an outcome = 17% mortality rate if you contract the disease
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03-28-2020 01:46 PM |
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wmubroncopilot
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RE: Coronavirus-realistic fear or hyped?
(03-28-2020 01:46 PM)Aimless1 Wrote: Add the number of deaths to number recovered = total number of cases with an outcome
28662 deaths divided by $166025 cases with an outcome = 17% mortality rate if you contract the disease
At the risk of sounding morbid, it takes longer to recover (and confirm a recovery) than to die.
Countries farther along in the process are nowhere near 17%.
Plus as shown on that site, 95% of current cases are mild or moderate.
Final numbers will be bad, but not anywhere close to 17%.
This thing is bad enough without sensationalizing the numbers.
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03-28-2020 02:05 PM |
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RunningGame
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RE: Coronavirus-realistic fear or hyped?
Really, follow the Diamond Princess numbers. About a 1% fatality rate among an older general population with excellent medical care. 20% of passengers got it in tight quarters with social distancing.
I think we’ll be fine in a few weeks, hopefully back to work with spot individual and city quarantines as needed thanks to greater testing. I don’t think we’ll reach the 66 million cases and 660k deaths the cruise ship number indicates in 2020 or 2021.
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03-28-2020 03:07 PM |
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Nacho
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RE: Coronavirus-realistic fear or hyped?
I think we will START getting back to a general sense of normalcy around July 1.
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03-28-2020 03:41 PM |
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flushtheherd
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RE: Coronavirus-realistic fear or hyped?
I honestly think that by end of April things will have leveled off and some sense of new normal will begin. We are much further along than we may have thought. We’ve been likely spreading this in the US since January.
I hope they can increase testing options that are more available and quicker turn around.
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03-28-2020 03:46 PM |
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MajorHoople
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RE: Coronavirus-realistic fear or hyped?
It may be irresponsible-lead to a second outbreak to "reopen" the country until there is a cure or at least a viable vaccine for this virus.
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03-28-2020 03:53 PM |
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bostonbronco
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RE: Coronavirus-realistic fear or hyped?
(This post was last modified: 03-28-2020 04:08 PM by bostonbronco.)
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03-28-2020 04:07 PM |
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okgc
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RE: Coronavirus-realistic fear or hyped?
(03-28-2020 03:53 PM)MajorHoople Wrote: It may be irresponsible-lead to a second outbreak to "reopen" the country until there is a cure or at least a viable vaccine for this virus.
A viable vaccine would be 12-18 months away.
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03-28-2020 06:46 PM |
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MajorHoople
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RE: Coronavirus-realistic fear or hyped?
(03-28-2020 06:46 PM)okgc Wrote: (03-28-2020 03:53 PM)MajorHoople Wrote: It may be irresponsible-lead to a second outbreak to "reopen" the country until there is a cure or at least a viable vaccine for this virus.
A viable vaccine would be 12-18 months away.
That's not what our Fearless Leader claims.
(This post was last modified: 03-29-2020 06:36 AM by MajorHoople.)
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03-28-2020 07:00 PM |
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Motown Bronco
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RE: Coronavirus-realistic fear or hyped?
(03-28-2020 06:46 PM)okgc Wrote: (03-28-2020 03:53 PM)MajorHoople Wrote: It may be irresponsible-lead to a second outbreak to "reopen" the country until there is a cure or at least a viable vaccine for this virus.
A viable vaccine would be 12-18 months away.
Yup, and at some point down the road, society will have to ask itself an uncomfortable question that's really a lose-lose scenario.
Open things back up knowing you'll invite a wave of death? Or buckle down and enter a Great Depression (both from an economic and mental health standpoint)?
My hunch is that things "open up" this summer, but to a limited degree. You go back to work, restaurants and stores open, etc. But the big venues with crowds of people will be shut down for a lot longer, like concerts, sporting events, carnivals, etc.
Airlines and hotels will take a long time to recover. Businesses, having gotten used to Skype and such, will keep the lock down on business travel. Both for safety and cost savings. And "staycations" or local travel will be the norm for at least those 12-18 months. Places like Disney World, a crowded melting pot in itself, is gonna really suffer.
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03-28-2020 08:00 PM |
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ess
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RE: Coronavirus-realistic fear or hyped?
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03-28-2020 08:06 PM |
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Charm City Bronco
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RE: Coronavirus-realistic fear or hyped?
I'm brand new to this thread after 12 pages, but let me guess, World Genius Bronco Phiwwwy has been calling it a hoax from the beginning.
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03-28-2020 08:13 PM |
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Charm City Bronco
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RE: Coronavirus-realistic fear or hyped?
(03-26-2020 06:45 AM)Boca Rocket Wrote: It's Toilet Paper Thursday here in S FL. Radio listeners call in with toilet paper sightings. Good news, a number of locations are back in stock.
A restaurant was giving away a toilet paper roll
with a large take out/delivery order.
My brother flew in from Philly yesterday. There were 8 on his flight. He talked to an airlines employee
and was told a flight came in with only one passenger. Saw occupancy rates in hotels vary from 7-29%, averaging about 19-20%. Traffic is picking up
on the streets.
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03-28-2020 08:16 PM |
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Motown Bronco
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RE: Coronavirus-realistic fear or hyped?
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03-29-2020 11:48 AM |
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RunningGame
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RE: Coronavirus-realistic fear or hyped?
(03-28-2020 08:00 PM)Motown Bronco Wrote: (03-28-2020 06:46 PM)okgc Wrote: (03-28-2020 03:53 PM)MajorHoople Wrote: It may be irresponsible-lead to a second outbreak to "reopen" the country until there is a cure or at least a viable vaccine for this virus.
A viable vaccine would be 12-18 months away.
Yup, and at some point down the road, society will have to ask itself an uncomfortable question that's really a lose-lose scenario.
Open things back up knowing you'll invite a wave of death? Or buckle down and enter a Great Depression (both from an economic and mental health standpoint)?
My hunch is that things "open up" this summer, but to a limited degree. You go back to work, restaurants and stores open, etc. But the big venues with crowds of people will be shut down for a lot longer, like concerts, sporting events, carnivals, etc.
Airlines and hotels will take a long time to recover. Businesses, having gotten used to Skype and such, will keep the lock down on business travel. Both for safety and cost savings. And "staycations" or local travel will be the norm for at least those 12-18 months. Places like Disney World, a crowded melting pot in itself, is gonna really suffer.
I’ve seen a lot sniping back and forth on this in general, but this is really the discussion we should all be focused on right now.
A depression comes with its own lost lives and an impact over generations.
This virus is in the strange zone between severe and benign, Ebola and a bad common cold, sparing the children. I think most agree we must avoid swamping hospitals, but after that, what is an acceptable level of risk?
My hope is testing makes this an easy choice.
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03-29-2020 12:57 PM |
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