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Coronavirus-realistic fear or hyped?
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BroncoPhilly Offline
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Post: #1
Coronavirus-realistic fear or hyped?
My stock accounts have take a REAL pasting the last week or so. I hate to think how much money I've lost on paper.

But, that aside has the pathogen crisis been overhyped or reported on realistically?

I have my own thoughts, but I'd like to hear yours first.
(This post was last modified: 02-27-2020 11:02 PM by BroncoPhilly.)
02-27-2020 11:01 PM
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MajorHoople Offline
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Post: #2
RE: Coronavirus-realistic fear or hyped?
"The coronavirus is just the common cold, folks."

-- Rush Limbaugh
02-28-2020 07:07 AM
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Boca Rocket Offline
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Post: #3
RE: Coronavirus-realistic fear or hyped?
So far 4,800 flu related deaths in the US in 2020.
O coronavirus deaths in the country. [/i]
02-28-2020 07:16 AM
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WMUlaxer97 Offline
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RE: Coronavirus-realistic fear or hyped?
The current estimates are that it is 1-2% fatal. If given proper resources it’s probably close to 1%. The problem is when health systems are taxed or overwhelmed as in Wuhan people will not get ICU admission, isolation and proper treatment. In fact initial reports from doctors there was that they were concerned about a virus being spread within the hospital.

Wuhan has a population similar to NYC and the hospitals were quickly overtaken by the virus. It’s hard to project how a similar outbreak would be contained in the US. One could assume it may be worse here given our rights to travel freely, compared to how easily a city in China could be shut down by their regime. I would guess martial law would have to be imposed to close cities here.

Currently we have 0 Coronavirus cases in MI. My main account is a hospital in midtown D. Yesterday they were at 100% capacity. And this is almost the norm for most urban hospitals. If there are empty beds the hospitals may be losing business. If a pandemic were to sweep through the US I don’t think our systems can adequately treat the sick. I read this morning that the CDC provided the state of CA with only 200 test kits!

Most concerning right now is the critical case near Sacramento. That patient is on a vent and may not survive. It is unknown how that pt acquired the disease. Meaning someone exposed them to it and is currently exposing the population of NoCal to it as well. The next week or 2 is critical in our response and in the spread of the disease. Iran is not equipped to fight it and they are seeing widespread infections and deaths, probably well over 2% fatal.

Be prepared at all times, for natural disasters, power outages in winter, loss of food supply. Keep enough water and non perishable food for you and your family for at least a couple weeks. Don’t rely on Meijers to be able to keep up inventory when the sh!t hits the fan. All stores will be sold out in an hour in a mass panic situation.
(This post was last modified: 02-28-2020 09:01 AM by WMUlaxer97.)
02-28-2020 07:19 AM
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GRBRONCO Offline
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Post: #5
RE: Coronavirus-realistic fear or hyped?
It's perfect timing for the Democrats and left wing media. They are fear mongering and salivating for a recession in an election year. This will come and go much like the swine flu from a decade ago.
02-28-2020 07:23 AM
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MajorHoople Offline
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Post: #6
RE: Coronavirus-realistic fear or hyped?
"COVID-19 is a serious public health issue."

-- Dr. Daniel B. Jernigan, CDC
02-28-2020 07:44 AM
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bronco89 Offline
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RE: Coronavirus-realistic fear or hyped?
It is real from a business perspective. The supply chain at my company is in chaos and you can't change that on a dime.

Global travel has been eliminated and domestic travel is very restricted. I am OK with that because the last place I want to be right now is on a plane. I am in a senior customer facing position and typically travel about 50% of the time.

The markets will continue to drop due to the uncertainty of where this virus will hit next.
(This post was last modified: 02-28-2020 08:07 AM by bronco89.)
02-28-2020 08:05 AM
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ColinApocalypse Offline
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Post: #8
RE: Coronavirus-realistic fear or hyped?
It is real and it'll only get worse.

People making light of the situation and comparing it to past panics will look like a fool very soon.

In less than a week, the number of countries reporting confirmed cases jumped from 20 to 50. And it's not slowing down.

Wait until it hits Sub-Saharan Africa and other places with inadequate medical infrastructure. China has done a good job controlling the outbreak due to Draconian practices, but the more freedom-loving countries will have a difficult time containing it.
02-28-2020 08:15 AM
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WMUlaxer97 Offline
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Post: #9
RE: Coronavirus-realistic fear or hyped?
(02-28-2020 07:16 AM)Boca Rocket Wrote:  So far 4,800 flu related deaths in the US in 2020.
O coronavirus deaths in the country. [/i]

I was stressing a month ago that people should remain vigilant with regards to the spread of the flu.

That being said the coronavirus as a whole is an unknown. The rate of contagion is not known. The mortality rate is not truly known. Reports of a asymptomatic people spreading the disease is alarming. Incubation period has been stated at 14 days but several weeks ago it was claimed to be around 24 days, yet we are still sticking to the 14 day quarantine. Whether it dies out in spring or fall such as SARS or MERS would be ideal, but we won’t know. Many expect this to be a perennial problem, which presents huge issues for the health of the population worldwide.

It is foolish to believe this not to be a real problem. People are not paying attention to what has transpired since December. Drs and nurses are working around the clock in diapers and full suits of protection to treat isolated patients. The resources to do this are taxing and will run out. In 3rd world countries these measures will not happen and the contagion will run unchecked. Economically, this can quickly result in a recession if what happened in China and Iran happens here. Global projections are of a possible 100million fatal cases. This can be the Spanish flu of our time.
02-28-2020 08:44 AM
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MajorHoople Offline
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Post: #10
RE: Coronavirus-realistic fear or hyped?
(02-28-2020 08:15 AM)ColinApocalypse Wrote:  Wait until it hits Sub-Saharan Africa and other places with inadequate medical infrastructure. China has done a good job controlling the outbreak due to Draconian practices, but the more freedom-loving countries will have a difficult time containing it.

First reported case in Lagos, Nigeria today (Sub-Saharan Africa).
02-28-2020 08:48 AM
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Aimless1 Offline
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Post: #11
RE: Coronavirus-realistic fear or hyped?
Bridge Magazine has been great at keeping current with updated facts and no hyperbole. See https://www.bridgemi.com/michigan-health...ytrG9e5PKI

It is a pandemic. It will hit the U.S. It is not a cold. It is not the flu. Yes, flu deaths are higher right now in Michigan. This pandemic may or may not exceed those levels.
02-28-2020 09:49 AM
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BroncoPhilly Offline
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Post: #12
RE: Coronavirus-realistic fear or hyped?
Thank you WMUlaxer87, bronco89 and a couple of others for your thoughtful and fact containing posts.

I deal on future products for my company, not current production. Many of the components I am responsible for come out of China. To date, we have some projected delays of a few of them-perhaps 2 weeks to a month. Challenging, but we can recover from that with good planning.

I conference with colleagues and suppliers in China and Korea usually twice a day. The Chinese tell me they'll all be back to work next week, they've been working from home for about a month. These are engineers, not production people-the latter are already back at work for the most part.

Key issue for China is that many of the folks who work in their plants are originally from other parts of China. They'd all gone back home for the Lunar holiday when this crisis first hit-and accordingly were stuck there because transportation was frozen for 2 weeks. Now they're all trying to get back to their place of work. The government is chartering buses, trains and planes to assist that. I expect them to be back to full production not later than the end of March-we're going to be scrambling to fill the supply chain.

With respect to the Administration, good and bad. Trump took a LOT of political heat for putting immigration suspensions on at-risk nations a couple of months back, but give him credit for that or our problem in the USA could have been MUCH worse now. On the downside, I think he needs to be more transparent that this IS a crisis and we'll probably see more cases before we're done. Hopefully fatalities in the US will be few, if any. This virus is not simply a cold or a flue, it's something new and tangible. Own up to it, be transparent and ride out the crisis with full communication to the people of America.

Is the MSM hyping it? Sure, that's what they do. Some of it is political, some of it is simply the way the mass media is these days. That's why the Administration needs to run 'Rumor Central' and make sure good information is available at all times. That preempts rumor and fear.

Anyway, thanks for all your thoughts and let's hope we as a nation get through this with little damage. Sooner or later we WILL see a pandemic like the 1917 Spanish Influenza again and an exercise like this isn't all bad. We'll be better prepared for the next one.

Broncos everywhere-stay safe and healthy!
(This post was last modified: 02-28-2020 10:23 PM by BroncoPhilly.)
02-28-2020 11:27 AM
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BroncoPhilly Offline
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Post: #13
RE: Coronavirus-realistic fear or hyped?
(02-28-2020 08:05 AM)bronco89 Wrote:  It is real from a business perspective. The supply chain at my company is in chaos and you can't change that on a dime.

Global travel has been eliminated and domestic travel is very restricted. I am OK with that because the last place I want to be right now is on a plane. I am in a senior customer facing position and typically travel about 50% of the time.

The markets will continue to drop due to the uncertainty of where this virus will hit next.


Travel for my company has been just about eliminated, it has been entirely eliminated for China and Korea.

I used to travel like you, ALL THE TIME. Been to Japan many times, Korea many times and China 7-8 times. But the last place I want to be right now is on one of those petri dishes with wings.

First time I went to Japan I caught a nasty cold and my ears were plugged up all the time I was over there-3 weeks. I'm sure I came down with the virus on the airliner. If you're flying now, good thing to bring some hand sanitizer wipes along with you and wipe down the arm rests, tray table and anything else you might touch. Risk is low in the USA, but why take any chances?
02-28-2020 11:34 AM
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Motown Bronco Offline
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Post: #14
RE: Coronavirus-realistic fear or hyped?
I'm not saying this is the doomsday bug, especially given its low fatality rate of roughly 2%.

But I've always figured that it would be some new, lethal, uncontrollable virus, whether natural or even engineered for biological warfare, that'll bite a chunk out of humanity first (see 1300s Europe plague), as opposed to nuclear war, asteroid, climate, etc.
02-28-2020 11:38 AM
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BroncoPhilly Offline
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RE: Coronavirus-realistic fear or hyped?
(02-28-2020 11:38 AM)Motown Bronco Wrote:  I'm not saying this is the doomsday bug, especially given its low fatality rate of roughly 2%.

But I've always figured that it would be some new, lethal, uncontrollable virus, whether natural or even engineered for biological warfare, that'll bite a chunk out of humanity first (see 1300s Europe plague), as opposed to nuclear war, asteroid, climate, etc.


It will happen, sooner or later. Over population almost guarantees it.

We've been fortunate to date with this virus, we were better prepared than others. Let's hope it continues.
02-28-2020 11:44 AM
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Boca Rocket Offline
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RE: Coronavirus-realistic fear or hyped?
(02-28-2020 09:49 AM)Aimless1 Wrote:  Bridge Magazine has been great at keeping current with updated facts and no hyperbole. See https://www.bridgemi.com/michigan-health...ytrG9e5PKI

It is a pandemic. It will hit the U.S. It is not a cold. It is not the flu. Yes, flu deaths are higher right now in Michigan. This pandemic may or may not exceed those levels.

2009's flu pandemic was projected to have 7% mortality rate, it was .1%. You just don't know.
Better to error on the side of caution.
My guess is the incidences of it in the US will be much less than the epicenter in China.
02-28-2020 11:45 AM
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bronco89 Offline
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RE: Coronavirus-realistic fear or hyped?
(02-28-2020 11:34 AM)BroncoPhilly Wrote:  
(02-28-2020 08:05 AM)bronco89 Wrote:  It is real from a business perspective. The supply chain at my company is in chaos and you can't change that on a dime.

Global travel has been eliminated and domestic travel is very restricted. I am OK with that because the last place I want to be right now is on a plane. I am in a senior customer facing position and typically travel about 50% of the time.

The markets will continue to drop due to the uncertainty of where this virus will hit next.


Travel for my company has been just about eliminated, it has been entirely eliminated for China and Korea.

I used to travel like you, ALL THE TIME. Been to Japan many times, Korea many times and China 7-8 times. But the last place I want to be right now is on one of those petri dishes with wings.

First time I went to Japan I caught a nasty cold and my ears were plugged up all the time I was over there-3 weeks. I'm sure I came down with the virus on the airliner. If you're flying now, good thing to bring some hand sanitizer wipes along with you and wipe down the arm rests, tray table and anything else you might touch. Risk is low in the USA, but why take any chances?

Completely agree. I'm lucky that now I just travel domestically. I lived in SE Asia for a year and also seemed to get sick when I traveled home. At some point they will need to look at the sanitation standards on planes. Planes really are disgusting and with more folks traveling abroad the risk for illness is higher than ever.
02-28-2020 11:53 AM
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WMUlaxer97 Offline
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RE: Coronavirus-realistic fear or hyped?
I read that Gilead has developed an antiviral drug ready for human trials in Nebraska. My company, not Gilead, put out a statement in January estimating a vaccine possibly ready for human trial by fall.

https://apple.news/AHgmg_t9bTY62TTri8xWWxw
(This post was last modified: 02-28-2020 04:00 PM by WMUlaxer97.)
02-28-2020 12:05 PM
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bostonbronco Offline
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RE: Coronavirus-realistic fear or hyped?
The coronavirus will dissipate in time. Just when is questionable. Just take the precautionary measures as suggested by the health organizations.

Once the unknown about the virus is unveiled and stabilized the markets will rebound. Any losses will be regained. Again, when is the question.
02-28-2020 12:10 PM
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Boca Rocket Offline
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RE: Coronavirus-realistic fear or hyped?
I told my wife no more shopping at live animal markets or long Walmart lines.
02-28-2020 12:20 PM
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