(05-13-2022 05:38 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(05-13-2022 05:06 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(05-13-2022 04:33 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(05-13-2022 04:19 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(05-13-2022 12:47 PM)rath v2.0 Wrote:  A Russian armored battalion is on the bottom of a river today. Attempted a mass crossing during daylight and a cheap drone sent precise coordinates to howitzers many miles away. Modern warfare is changing in real time yet the Russians are using 75 year old methodology.

Saw one article saying they were using the meat grinder approach. Just keep throwing men at the front lines and try to get breakthroughs. WWII tactics. But they had many more men than Germany. Saw one estimate that 20 million men served in the Red Army and half ended up casualties.

They are making some progress, but very slow and very costly.

Because the entire rationale for this war was always fake. This is about Putin fancying himself as a modern Catherine the Great. Ukrainain lives dont mean anything to Putin. The lives of Russian speaking Ukrainians dont mean anything to Putin (he's blowing them and their homes to pieces even as we speak). How do I know Russian lives dont mean anything to Russian leaders? Just look at how this war has played out. Anyone that gave a crap about their own Russian soldiers would have made sure they had a good plan, enough to eat, and plenty of fuel. Instead, Putin seems content to just order 18 year old Russian conscripts in old cheap poorly made tanks to soak up Javelins like pin-cushions in a sick gamble that the Ukrainians will run out of anti-tank missiles before he runs out of apparently worthless young Russians. After watching 3 months of this war, does anyone really think he cares about Russian speakers in Ukraine? Anyone stupid enough to buy that line of crap deserves what he gets.

He's probably killed many thousands of ethnic Russians in places like Mariuopol.

Virtually the entire region he's invaded--with perhaps the exception of the areas just north of Kyiv---were all regions where there was a heavily ethnic Russian population---in some cases---these areas were a majority ethnic Russian. So, he's likely killed tens of thousands of the exact Russian speakers in Ukraine he was supposedly sooooooo very concerned about. Like I said---he doesnt give a flying fig about Russian speakers or his own people. He only cares about making sure he has a legacy that fits his vast vanity.

He cares about the coal reserves and steel industries in Eastern Ukraine. That's the list. This is an attempted mugging.

(02-26-2022 01:19 PM)shere khan Wrote:  

We are kicking their arse

Believe me

Only need 6 billion dollars

That’s about 47 billion dollars less than what we’ve given them. So far.

All praise to Rand Paul, Chip Roy, and their allies for opposing that scam.

(05-13-2022 09:16 PM)Native Georgian Wrote:  

(02-26-2022 01:19 PM)shere khan Wrote:  

We are kicking their arse

Believe me

Only need 6 billion dollars

That’s about 47 billion dollars less than what we’ve given them. So far.

All praise to Rand Paul, Chip Roy, and their allies for opposing that scam.

Huge scam. Has been since day 1. Two ahole countries fighting each other and we picked the one that was the easiest to sell on moral grounds to lauder money in.

Dummies took it hook line and sinker

(05-13-2022 06:27 PM)rath v2.0 Wrote:  

(05-13-2022 05:38 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(05-13-2022 05:06 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(05-13-2022 04:33 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(05-13-2022 04:19 PM)bullet Wrote:  Saw one article saying they were using the meat grinder approach. Just keep throwing men at the front lines and try to get breakthroughs. WWII tactics. But they had many more men than Germany. Saw one estimate that 20 million men served in the Red Army and half ended up casualties.

They are making some progress, but very slow and very costly.

Because the entire rationale for this war was always fake. This is about Putin fancying himself as a modern Catherine the Great. Ukrainain lives dont mean anything to Putin. The lives of Russian speaking Ukrainians dont mean anything to Putin (he's blowing them and their homes to pieces even as we speak). How do I know Russian lives dont mean anything to Russian leaders? Just look at how this war has played out. Anyone that gave a crap about their own Russian soldiers would have made sure they had a good plan, enough to eat, and plenty of fuel. Instead, Putin seems content to just order 18 year old Russian conscripts in old cheap poorly made tanks to soak up Javelins like pin-cushions in a sick gamble that the Ukrainians will run out of anti-tank missiles before he runs out of apparently worthless young Russians. After watching 3 months of this war, does anyone really think he cares about Russian speakers in Ukraine? Anyone stupid enough to buy that line of crap deserves what he gets.

He's probably killed many thousands of ethnic Russians in places like Mariuopol.

Virtually the entire region he's invaded--with perhaps the exception of the areas just north of Kyiv---were all regions where there was a heavily ethnic Russian population---in some cases---these areas were a majority ethnic Russian. So, he's likely killed tens of thousands of the exact Russian speakers in Ukraine he was supposedly sooooooo very concerned about. Like I said---he doesnt give a flying fig about Russian speakers or his own people. He only cares about making sure he has a legacy that fits his vast vanity.

He cares about the coal reserves and steel industries in Eastern Ukraine. That's the list. This is an attempted mugging.

Thats an over simplification.

This is the middle east north.

No good guys here

You can tell me i was right later

The bolded is utter rubbish: mind reading, supposition and propaganda.



Ukrainian is more similar to Slovak or Polish (from the West group) than to Russian language.

A coup to overthrow Russian President Vladimir Putin is underway and can't be stopped, according to Ukraine's military intelligence chief.

Speaking to Sky News, Major General Kyrylo Budanov said that a Russian military defeat would result in Putin's removal and the country's eventual collapse.

"It will eventually lead to the change of leadership of the Russian Federation," Budanov said, per Sky News. "This process has already been launched."

Just saw this come across the news. Take it FWIW.

The only way this happens is if the health of Putin is failing. I presume it is.

This Russia specialist thinks that the Russian Federation, like the USSR before it, is doomed to splinter into smaller parts -

https://thehill.com/opinion/internationa...of-russia/

(05-13-2022 11:27 PM)shere khan Wrote:  

(05-13-2022 06:27 PM)rath v2.0 Wrote:  

(05-13-2022 05:38 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(05-13-2022 05:06 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(05-13-2022 04:33 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  Because the entire rationale for this war was always fake. This is about Putin fancying himself as a modern Catherine the Great. Ukrainain lives dont mean anything to Putin. The lives of Russian speaking Ukrainians dont mean anything to Putin (he's blowing them and their homes to pieces even as we speak). How do I know Russian lives dont mean anything to Russian leaders? Just look at how this war has played out. Anyone that gave a crap about their own Russian soldiers would have made sure they had a good plan, enough to eat, and plenty of fuel. Instead, Putin seems content to just order 18 year old Russian conscripts in old cheap poorly made tanks to soak up Javelins like pin-cushions in a sick gamble that the Ukrainians will run out of anti-tank missiles before he runs out of apparently worthless young Russians. After watching 3 months of this war, does anyone really think he cares about Russian speakers in Ukraine? Anyone stupid enough to buy that line of crap deserves what he gets.

He's probably killed many thousands of ethnic Russians in places like Mariuopol.

Virtually the entire region he's invaded--with perhaps the exception of the areas just north of Kyiv---were all regions where there was a heavily ethnic Russian population---in some cases---these areas were a majority ethnic Russian. So, he's likely killed tens of thousands of the exact Russian speakers in Ukraine he was supposedly sooooooo very concerned about. Like I said---he doesnt give a flying fig about Russian speakers or his own people. He only cares about making sure he has a legacy that fits his vast vanity.

He cares about the coal reserves and steel industries in Eastern Ukraine. That's the list. This is an attempted mugging.

Thats an over simplification.

This is the middle east north.

No good guys here

You can tell me i was right later

The bolded is utter rubbish: mind reading, supposition and propaganda.



Ukrainian is more similar to Slovak or Polish (from the West group) than to Russian language.

Russia signed deals with China and India to supply 200 million tons of coal in the upcoming year...this was in the week or two leading up to the invasion.

It's a street mugging writ large. He wants eastern Ukraine for cash resources. That's it.

UK intelligence currently estimating about a third of Russia's original invasion strength has been lost since the Ukrainian invasion began. Looks like Putin is easily directly responsible for the deaths of more Russian speakers than anyone else this decade.


https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-61457622

No Russian territory gains in weeks. Loss of a whole battalion. No logistics. Finland joining NATO. Not a good week for the Invaders.

(05-15-2022 06:31 PM)shere khan Wrote:  

You and Todar go get a room. Ukraine was a young struggling democracy dealing with the leftovers of an even more corrupt USSR. They are fighting valiantly for their country against a totalitarian aggressor. If we are going to expend weapons nearing their use by date there’s no better place to do it.

(05-15-2022 10:23 PM)Was SoMs Eagle Wrote:  

(05-15-2022 06:31 PM)shere khan Wrote:  

You and Todar go get a room. Ukraine was a young struggling democracy dealing with the leftovers of an even more corrupt USSR. They are fighting valiantly for their country against a totalitarian aggressor. If we are going to expend weapons nearing their use by date there’s no better place to do it.

:

This thing could get even more ugly for Russia. The fact that the Russians couldn’t take Kharkiv now has their soldiers isolated inside the Donbas with no supply line. This should get interesting within the week. If the Russian troops bail from there this war has been very costly for Russia with little to show for it.

https://news.sky.com/video/ukraine-war-r...v-12613627

(05-16-2022 08:42 AM)BlueDragon Wrote:  This thing could get even more ugly for Russia. The fact that the Russians couldn’t take Kharkiv now has their soldiers isolated inside the Donbas with no supply line. This should get interesting within the week. If the Russian troops bail from there this war has been very costly for Russia with little to show for it.

https://news.sky.com/video/ukraine-war-r...v-12613627

Yup---and those often mentioned huge reserve tank forces Russia has are probably more mirage than real. I see numbers ranging from 13,000 to 20,000 tanks in reserve. Most of those numbers are pretty old. Best I can tell, they only have around 2500 or so reasonably modern active tanks. They have around another 6,000 in storage---most of which are much older---and none of them are modernized (meaning they would be vulnerable to older cheaper anti-tank weapons like RPG's and AT-4's). Many of those reserve tanks have been scavenged for parts. The reality? After sitting in open air storage for decades---likely with substandard preservative maintenance-----with many of the tanks scavanged for parts---probably at best only half of those reserve tanks could be put in functioning condition very quickly.

It's almost like the Russians are the owners of the Cleveland Indians in Major League and they are hoping to lose every game so that they can move to a new city.

(05-17-2022 01:21 PM)rath v2.0 Wrote:  It's almost like the Russians are the owners of the Cleveland Indians in Major League and they are hoping to lose every game so that they can move to a new city.

So.....they dont need our money. Right?

https://www.understandingwar.org/report/...rned-syria
Interesting read. Sounds like the lessons from the Syrian War were not implemented or didn't apply against a modern army. And a lot of those experienced officers are dead.

"...The Russian military’s main lesson from Syria is the need to gain “superiority of management” in future conflicts. The Russians define superiority of management as making better decisions faster than the opponent and compelling the opponent to operate within a Russian decision framework. They assert that obtaining superiority of management will be commanders’ key focus in increasingly fast and complex conflicts. The Russian military assesses that command and control (C2) efficiency is the key predictor of success in modern and future operations. Many Russian lessons on command and control are new to Russia, not novel innovations in modern warfare, but the Russian military is effectively leveraging learning from Syria to close its gap in C2 capabilities with Western militaries.

The Kremlin optimized its deployment to Syria to instill combat experience throughout the Russian military. Gerasimov considers the Syrian civil war to be the Russian military’s primary source of learning for the future of war and optimized Russian deployments to ensure as many officers as possible gained experience to contribute to this learning effort. Much of the Russian senior officer class now possesses the experience needed to contribute to the process of developing adaptations to lessons learned in Syria...."

(05-17-2022 02:18 PM)bullet Wrote:  https://www.understandingwar.org/report/...rned-syria
Interesting read. Sounds like the lessons from the Syrian War were not implemented or didn't apply against a modern army. And a lot of those experienced officers are dead.

"...The Russian military’s main lesson from Syria is the need to gain “superiority of management” in future conflicts. The Russians define superiority of management as making better decisions faster than the opponent and compelling the opponent to operate within a Russian decision framework. They assert that obtaining superiority of management will be commanders’ key focus in increasingly fast and complex conflicts. The Russian military assesses that command and control (C2) efficiency is the key predictor of success in modern and future operations. Many Russian lessons on command and control are new to Russia, not novel innovations in modern warfare, but the Russian military is effectively leveraging learning from Syria to close its gap in C2 capabilities with Western militaries.

The Kremlin optimized its deployment to Syria to instill combat experience throughout the Russian military. Gerasimov considers the Syrian civil war to be the Russian military’s primary source of learning for the future of war and optimized Russian deployments to ensure as many officers as possible gained experience to contribute to this learning effort. Much of the Russian senior officer class now possesses the experience needed to contribute to the process of developing adaptations to lessons learned in Syria...."

I suspect its more the latter. You can get away with a lot of inefficiencies and mistakes when you are fighting a smaller much less well armed force. For instance, I think its interesting that the Russians apparently gleaned little from the drone lessons learned along the the Turkish border in Syria and in Azerbaijan. That said---we need to learn as well. If we are going to try to influence battlefield outcomes without intervening directly with our air force , army, or navy---then we need to vastly ramp up our ability to produce small munitions and drones that other armies can easily operate and require little infrastructure. Javalins, Stingers, mobile-artillery, switchblades, and mobile missile launchers---this type of effective equipment that require little supporting infrastructure (unlike things like aircraft) and training to operate must be easily producible by the US in large enough numbers in order to sustain the tempo we see in large conflicts like Ukraine. We also need be building something cheap and easy to use like the Bayraktar TB-2 drones that have been so effective. The Byraktar TB-2 cost only 2 million a unit---vs the US made MQ-1 Predator that runs 40 million each ( thats closing in the on the cost of an F-16).

Most of the people in Eastern Ukraine speak Russian because they are Russians. The reasons Russians are in Eastern Ukraine is because a few generations back the Tsars, then the Commies, killed off or forcibly migrated the Ukrainians there out.

No good guys, but some bad guys are worse than others.

Vladimir Putin Decides He Is a Better General Than His Generals and Takes the Reins in Ukraine

Quote:As the Red Army closed in on der Führerbunker, Adolf Hitler tried to ward off the inevitable by giving orders to divisions and regiments that had long since disappeared into the meatgrinder of the Eastern Front. In the dark days of the Vietnam War, President Lyndon Johnson whiled away the dwindling days of his failed presidency by personally selecting the targets to be bombed in North Vietnam. Jimmy Carter was involved in the tactical details for the abortive hostage rescue mission into Iran known as Operation Eagle Claw, or Desert One. Now we’re hearing of another failed political leader donning the hat of a tactician and running his own war, that would be Russian President Vladimir Putin.

President Putin is making low-level tactical decisions that would normally be decided by an officer in charge of as few as 700 Russian troops, western military sources say.

A military source said that Putin and General Valery Gerasimov, chief of the general staff, were dictating basic movements of their forces in Ukraine.

“We think Putin and Gerasimov are involved in tactical decision-making at a level we would normally expect to be taken by a colonel or a brigadier”, the source said.


“Western military sources” may or may not be a meaningful qualification, but when we put this together with some other stories, perhaps we can get a closer peek at the truth.

There were multiple reports of a politico-military shakeup in Moscow in late April. Vladimir Putin, we were told, would hand off domestic policy to his deputy and devote his massive, superhuman brain to winning the war in Ukraine. The chief of the Russian military’s general staff, Valery Gerasimov, was told to take charge of the running of the war see Russian Army in Ukraine Undergoing Major Command Shake-Up, Sources Say. The upshot of that experiment was Gerasimov nearly being splattered across the landscape (Mysterious Ammunition Dump Explosion Rocks Russia and Did Ukraine Nearly Kill Russia’s Top Military Officer?),

Another story came out last week that definitely has the ring of truth, Russian generals turning on each other to avoid Putin’s purge, says Ben Wallace. The Ben Wallace in the headline is the British Defence Secretary, so, as sources go, that is pretty solid.

During a visit to Finland, Ben Wallace said military leaders were blaming each other for the “disaster” and feared being purged if the “quagmire” turns into a panicked retreat.

Military chiefs in the general staff were the scapegoats for President Putin’s failed invasion, he said, adding that those in the military system were “always terrified they are about to be purged and pushed out”.

…

“There is a point of tension in the system. As much as they respect the former KGB man [Putin] for being a strong leader, the Russian general staff are going to be made scapegoats for his mess.

“He [Putin] would be foolish, potentially, to blame Gerasimov and the other generals for what is predominantly a politically, emotive-driven invasion defying all logic. It’s a political decision he took, not a military one, and he needs to wear that decision.”

There is no one close to Putin who has told him to abandon plans to seize Ukraine, Wallace said, adding that the war could “very quickly turn from a quagmire to a rout” if the Russians collapse like they did north of Kyiv.

It doesn’t take much imagination to understand how in any bureaucracy, you want to avoid being around a project that starts to look like a failure. It isn’t enough that you, yourself, avoid the taint (ewwww), but you have to avoid colleagues who might be tainted. General officers would be keenly aware the situation in Ukraine has deteriorated to the point that even the Russian-bot accounts on Twitter and Telegram are complaining about how slow and in the wrong direction things are moving. Knowing that the commander-in-chief was the prime mover for the invasion and has a habit of whacking people who get out of line (6 Russian Oligarchs Commit Suicide in Mysterious Outbreak of Epstein Syndrome), you’d do well to run like the devil from anything vaguely concerned with Ukraine.

We cannot empirically evaluate this story’s accuracy, but we can say it is highly plausible. This war is Putin’s baby. He wasn’t snookered into invading; he’d made his mind up months earlier. In retrospect, Putin telegraphed this war in his June 2021 essay “On the Historical Unity of Russians and Ukrainians,” you can read the original essay here or a good analysis of the essay’s meaning here. He might have been fed information shaped to conform to his preconceived notion of how an invasion would play out, but autocrats collect sycophants; if you want the truth, you can’t be in the business of killing messengers. We do know that a day into the war, he showed signs of discomfort (Putin Shows Signs of Panic, as He Calls on Ukraine Military to Mutiny) and that rumors flared about Putin purging FSB officers who’d provided the intelligence assessment on Ukraine (Trouble in Paradise: Putin Arrests Senior FSB Officers Over Ukraine Fiasco).

If Gerasimov was chased out of Ukraine by a volley of artillery shells, it is easy to see Putin looking over the shoulder of the field commander and telling him what to do. If the generals fear a purge, you can easily see them doing exactly what they are told and creating a paper trail to prove their obedience.

As I’ve mentioned before, my gut feeling is that Putin sees himself as the smartest guy he knows and has unshakable faith in his ability to maneuver. You can easily imagine Putin, rather than Barack Obama, saying, “I think that I’m a better speechwriter than my speechwriters. I know more about policies on any particular issue than my policy directors. And I’ll tell you right now that I’m gonna think I’m a better political director than my political director.” That kind of hubris and a realization that one’s political life, or real life, might depend upon a successful military outcome could easily lure a politician into deciding that he’s a better general than his generals.