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I believe in Sam Onu
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salukiblue Offline
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Post: #41
RE: I believe in Sam Onu
(05-03-2021 12:44 PM)Stammers Wrote:  
(05-03-2021 11:12 AM)salukiblue Wrote:  
(05-03-2021 10:46 AM)SeñorTiger Wrote:  You all forget you are watching a high school highlight clip reel... Moussa looked absolutely dominate in his clips. Again, I think Sam will have a great career here but if you are expecting him to play more than 10-12 minutes a game and be more than a 5 ppg and 5 rebounds then you are setting yourself up for disappointment...




10-12?

Let's put things in perspective:

Last 10+ years of bigs (frosh stats):

Moussa (#10 reclassified) 6.6 ppg 6.3 rpg
Wiseman (only 3 games #1/2 in class) 19.7 ppg 10.7 ppg
Malco Dandridge (#106) 3.4 ppg 3.0 rpg
Lance Thomas (#120 at 'Ville): 2.2 ppg 1.3 rpg
Dedric Lawson (#36) 15.8 ppg 9.3 rpg
Nick Marshall (#95) 3.1 ppg 2.7 rpg
Dominic Woodson (#77) 2.5 ppg 1.9 rpg
Austin Nichols (#22) 9.3 ppg 4.3 rpg
Shaq (#35) 7.4 ppg 4.4 ppg
Tarik Black (#62) 9.1 ppg 5.0 rpg
Stan Simpson (#190 at Illinois) 0.5 ppg 0.4 rpg
Hippolyte Tsafack (#174) 1.0 ppg 0.3 rpg


Basically (Tarik being the outlier) only guys 35 or better really contributed as Frosh.

One could expect the guys in the 90-120 range to be 3and 3 guys while the further you do down (in the 180's) those guys were mop ups.

Sam is right in that spot at 100. 3 and 3 would be on target.

But I'm sure people will "explain" that somehow he's the one recruit who hasn't happened to be rated properly and he's more "in the top 30-40 range" if there had been AAU or some other situation.

Just like how Malco was horribly underrated and his skills set, body, and maturity didn't belie his 100+ ranking. Yet somehow after two seasons his still only at 3.6 ppg and 2.9 rpg.

It's not that at all, it is more dependent on roster and need. CDR at 8.3 points per game is 100X better than Brewton at 9.1 points per game. Obviously, you can have a player be infinitely superior to another player, even if they don't score as much.

13.3 Davenport
9.1 Brewton
8.1 Parks

6.9 Jamal Johnson
5.2 Randall (?)

8.3 CDR
7.2 Anderson
6.6 Crawford
5.6 Dozier
4.6 Dorsey

It all depends on Dandridge being healthy, his level of play, and foul trouble on Dandridge and DW. Against some opponents, DW won't be able to guard their center.

If Sam has a pulse and it's completely lost, he is probably looking at 8 minutes at the low end, and 14 minutes at the high end. I'm guessing he will be in the 12 minute range. You can't just shoehorn players into a scoring range based on their ranking. If Sam plays 8 minutes, he will produce at a certain level. If he plays 18 minutes, he will produce at a different level.

Your Dandridge example is invalid, because he hasn't been healthy.

The first three were JUCO's.

The discussion is frosh bigs. Jamal was a top 85 recruit and played a bit above what most #85's would do. He didn't knock it out of the park, but scored more than what would generally be expected.

Then of course the reason--the team sucked and he was allowed to play a bunch.

And he's a prefect example. He sat out a year, then went to a really good Auburn team. 0 starts, 11 mpg and 3.5 ppg.
The next year as a 4th year Junior, he starts half of the games for a bad Auburn team, plays 26 minutes a game and averages 9.4 points.
He didn't get better, his team got worse. And now he's at UAB.

So the idea that "if Jamal Johnson is playing 26 minutes a game then we're in trouble" absolutely holds true.

If you are referring to Craig Randall--he averaged 2.2 as a frosh.

As for Dozier, AA, and Dorsey they were all about where they should have been as frosh based on rankings and placement. Joey is hard to nail down since he was 21 y/o as a frosh and had various rankings and names.

CDR overperformed at #75, probably would be expected to be a 5 and 3 guy in the fat part of the curve.

Chris Crawford also got more play, partially due to the fact there wasn't a lot of depth. There were no returning guards, so his PT was wide open. And that team finished 4th in CUSA and barely made the tournament.
(This post was last modified: 05-03-2021 01:32 PM by salukiblue.)
05-03-2021 12:59 PM
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oruvoice Offline
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Post: #42
RE: I believe in Sam Onu
(05-03-2021 10:06 AM)salukiblue Wrote:  One was ranked top 10 in his class, one outside the top 100.

Please don't let this thread be a new "stupid expectations from empty posters."

You've been here for almost 17 years and you expect differently? 03-lmfao

They're all superstars and headed for the NBA.
05-03-2021 01:01 PM
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macgar32 Offline
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Post: #43
RE: I believe in Sam Onu
3 and 3 at 10 minutes a game is pretty darned good production.

If you are getting 12 and 12 out of your center position you can be a pretty good team.

But somehow a guy who averages 3 and 3 in 10 minutes cant play more than 10-12 mintues because that makes the team bad...But 12-12 for 40 is not bad at all. Doesn't make mathematical sense.

Heck Cisse was putting up around 3-3 for every ten minutes.
(This post was last modified: 05-03-2021 01:12 PM by macgar32.)
05-03-2021 01:08 PM
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salukiblue Offline
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Post: #44
RE: I believe in Sam Onu
(05-03-2021 01:08 PM)macgar32 Wrote:  3 and 3 at 10 minutes a game is pretty darned good production.

If you are getting 12 and 12 out of your center position you can be a pretty good team.

But somehow a guy who averages 3 and 3 in 10 minutes cant play more than 10-12 mintues because that makes the team bad...But 12-12 for 40 is not bad at all. Doesn't make mathematical sense.

Heck Cisse was putting up around 3-3 for every ten minutes.

Listen, this isn't rocket science.

Some people can go for 3 and 3 in 10 minutes and that is fine. They play 2.5 minutes in four little spurts. Their defensive or offensive liabilities aren't exposed for a prolonged period of time. They are expected to play a specific role, not f_ck up, and basically give the starters a breather.

If that person is forced to play extended minutes, bigger issues arise. Being out of position on defense, missing assignments, dropping passes, dumb fouls, etc.

That is literally why teams have bench players designed to play spot minutes. Not because they can't extrapolate 3 and 2 in six minutes to 15 and 10 in 30 minutes, but because during that extra time they start screwing stuff up.

Tyler Harris played 25 minutes as a frosh. Then he played fewer minutes as a Sophomore. Will he play 20+ minutes a game this year? No, partly because he becomes a liability if asked to play extended minutes.

And...if I tell you right now Tyler will play 25 minutes a game what does that mean?

Do you take that as meaning Tyler got SO good over the summer Penny had no choice to play him over Nolley and Les, or is it because Nolley, ALo, and Les aren't playing.

Chances are it's the latter and if he's playing >25 mpg that very well means bad things for Memphis. Essentially someone like Les or Landers is off the team or sustained a serious injury.

No one in their right mind, based upon ANY relevant data should be suggesting Sam play anywhere close to 20 mpg. If he is, he has either blasted expectations out of this world or players are missing and/or gone.
05-03-2021 01:26 PM
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TGTiger Offline
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Post: #45
RE: I believe in Sam Onu
(05-03-2021 12:48 PM)Irse Wrote:  
(05-03-2021 12:30 PM)TGTiger Wrote:  
(05-03-2021 10:41 AM)salukiblue Wrote:  Cisse was really good for a frosh.

Then take into account:

He reclassed from a small school to college.
He only turned 18 last June.
Because of Covid, he didn't get a full summer practicing and working out with other Tigers.

Cisse showed a lot of improvement as the season went on. His hands were always of issue, but so much of that seemed to be issues with pass location (too low) or trying to weave in bullets at a short distance. Guys like Nolley had little rapport with Cisse in terms of have a feel for lob vs. regular pass, etc.

Ideally that would have been remedied over the summer with the opportunity for those guys to play more and know where guys go to spots were.

Very much like Brady and Coxie 2018 vs. 2019. They didn't really have a great connection then the summer of 2019 they worked together on unspoken signals, knowing where to expect passes and where to best get the ball.

Thank you! Way too many armchair coaches overlook Cisse’s background. It’s very relevant in his case.

It's not like he had a bad year. He was the AAC freshman of the year. He could have had a better year if he got to practice some over the summer with the team. Too bad he felt he wasn't getting what he needed at Memphis. (Although I thought he was getting exactly what he needed)

Agreed. I think coming back would do him a world of good. I also think a small vocal minority of our fan base looked at him without taking his background and where he was developmentally into consideration.
05-03-2021 01:30 PM
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oruvoice Offline
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Post: #46
RE: I believe in Sam Onu
(05-03-2021 01:30 PM)TGTiger Wrote:  
(05-03-2021 12:48 PM)Irse Wrote:  
(05-03-2021 12:30 PM)TGTiger Wrote:  
(05-03-2021 10:41 AM)salukiblue Wrote:  Cisse was really good for a frosh.

Then take into account:

He reclassed from a small school to college.
He only turned 18 last June.
Because of Covid, he didn't get a full summer practicing and working out with other Tigers.

Cisse showed a lot of improvement as the season went on. His hands were always of issue, but so much of that seemed to be issues with pass location (too low) or trying to weave in bullets at a short distance. Guys like Nolley had little rapport with Cisse in terms of have a feel for lob vs. regular pass, etc.

Ideally that would have been remedied over the summer with the opportunity for those guys to play more and know where guys go to spots were.

Very much like Brady and Coxie 2018 vs. 2019. They didn't really have a great connection then the summer of 2019 they worked together on unspoken signals, knowing where to expect passes and where to best get the ball.

Thank you! Way too many armchair coaches overlook Cisse’s background. It’s very relevant in his case.

It's not like he had a bad year. He was the AAC freshman of the year. He could have had a better year if he got to practice some over the summer with the team. Too bad he felt he wasn't getting what he needed at Memphis. (Although I thought he was getting exactly what he needed)

Agreed. I think coming back would do him a world of good. I also think a small vocal minority of our fan base looked at him without taking his background and where he was developmentally into consideration.

Many of those same folks talked about him being a one-and-done player, onto the NBA, after one year in Tiger gear.

So, take it with a grain of salt.
05-03-2021 01:50 PM
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Stammers Offline
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Post: #47
RE: I believe in Sam Onu
(05-03-2021 12:59 PM)salukiblue Wrote:  
(05-03-2021 12:44 PM)Stammers Wrote:  
(05-03-2021 11:12 AM)salukiblue Wrote:  
(05-03-2021 10:46 AM)SeñorTiger Wrote:  You all forget you are watching a high school highlight clip reel... Moussa looked absolutely dominate in his clips. Again, I think Sam will have a great career here but if you are expecting him to play more than 10-12 minutes a game and be more than a 5 ppg and 5 rebounds then you are setting yourself up for disappointment...




10-12?

Let's put things in perspective:

Last 10+ years of bigs (frosh stats):

Moussa (#10 reclassified) 6.6 ppg 6.3 rpg
Wiseman (only 3 games #1/2 in class) 19.7 ppg 10.7 ppg
Malco Dandridge (#106) 3.4 ppg 3.0 rpg
Lance Thomas (#120 at 'Ville): 2.2 ppg 1.3 rpg
Dedric Lawson (#36) 15.8 ppg 9.3 rpg
Nick Marshall (#95) 3.1 ppg 2.7 rpg
Dominic Woodson (#77) 2.5 ppg 1.9 rpg
Austin Nichols (#22) 9.3 ppg 4.3 rpg
Shaq (#35) 7.4 ppg 4.4 ppg
Tarik Black (#62) 9.1 ppg 5.0 rpg
Stan Simpson (#190 at Illinois) 0.5 ppg 0.4 rpg
Hippolyte Tsafack (#174) 1.0 ppg 0.3 rpg


Basically (Tarik being the outlier) only guys 35 or better really contributed as Frosh.

One could expect the guys in the 90-120 range to be 3and 3 guys while the further you do down (in the 180's) those guys were mop ups.

Sam is right in that spot at 100. 3 and 3 would be on target.

But I'm sure people will "explain" that somehow he's the one recruit who hasn't happened to be rated properly and he's more "in the top 30-40 range" if there had been AAU or some other situation.

Just like how Malco was horribly underrated and his skills set, body, and maturity didn't belie his 100+ ranking. Yet somehow after two seasons his still only at 3.6 ppg and 2.9 rpg.

It's not that at all, it is more dependent on roster and need. CDR at 8.3 points per game is 100X better than Brewton at 9.1 points per game. Obviously, you can have a player be infinitely superior to another player, even if they don't score as much.

13.3 Davenport
9.1 Brewton
8.1 Parks

6.9 Jamal Johnson
5.2 Randall (?)

8.3 CDR
7.2 Anderson
6.6 Crawford
5.6 Dozier
4.6 Dorsey

It all depends on Dandridge being healthy, his level of play, and foul trouble on Dandridge and DW. Against some opponents, DW won't be able to guard their center.

If Sam has a pulse and it's completely lost, he is probably looking at 8 minutes at the low end, and 14 minutes at the high end. I'm guessing he will be in the 12 minute range. You can't just shoehorn players into a scoring range based on their ranking. If Sam plays 8 minutes, he will produce at a certain level. If he plays 18 minutes, he will produce at a different level.

Your Dandridge example is invalid, because he hasn't been healthy.

The first three were JUCO's.

The discussion is frosh bigs. Jamal was a top 85 recruit and played a bit above what most #85's would do. He didn't knock it out of the park, but scored more than what would generally be expected.

Then of course the reason--the team sucked and he was allowed to play a bunch.

If you are referring to Craig Randall--he averaged 2.2 as a frosh.

As for Dozier, AA, and Dorsey they were all about where they should have been as frosh based on rankings and placement. Joey is hard to nail down since he was 21 y/o as a frosh and had various rankings and names.

CDR overperformed at #75, probably would be expected to be a 5 and 3 guy in the fat part of the curve.

Chris Crawford also got more play, partially due to the fact there wasn't a lot of depth. There were no returning guards, so his PT was wide open. And that team finished 4th in CUSA and barely made the tournament.

Your Chris Crawford example makes my point. It has to do with the makeup of the roster and playing time, not ranking. If Dandridge isn't healthy, Sam isn't going to get mop up minutes and average 3 and 3. He will play more and his numbers will be a lot closer to Cisse's.

Quote:Jamal was a top 85 recruit and played a bit above what most #85's would do.
Quote:CDR overperformed at #75

46 Anderson
58 CDR
162 Johnson

Quote:The first three were JUCO's.

Replace Randall with Thornton...

High School/Juco Ranking
173 Johnson
153 Davenport
233 Brewton
342 Parks
342 Thornton

Also not relevant, because they were the same ages.

First Year...
22 Dorsey
20 Anderson
20 Dozier

21 Brewton
21 Davenport
20 Parks
20 Johnson

Quote:As for Dozier, AA, and Dorsey they were all about where they should have been as frosh based on rankings and placement.

And yet Thornton and Parks scored more than them ranked almost 300 spots lower than Anderson and CDR. Davenport and Johnson were 100 spots lower.

You can't just plug in the numbers according to rankings. It worked quite well because our teams were very similar from 2009-2015. Minot is #38. If Boogie or Warren were here as planned, there is no way he averages double digits. Now he might.
05-03-2021 01:53 PM
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salukiblue Offline
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Post: #48
RE: I believe in Sam Onu
(05-03-2021 01:53 PM)Stammers Wrote:  
(05-03-2021 12:59 PM)salukiblue Wrote:  
(05-03-2021 12:44 PM)Stammers Wrote:  
(05-03-2021 11:12 AM)salukiblue Wrote:  
(05-03-2021 10:46 AM)SeñorTiger Wrote:  You all forget you are watching a high school highlight clip reel... Moussa looked absolutely dominate in his clips. Again, I think Sam will have a great career here but if you are expecting him to play more than 10-12 minutes a game and be more than a 5 ppg and 5 rebounds then you are setting yourself up for disappointment...




10-12?

Let's put things in perspective:

Last 10+ years of bigs (frosh stats):

Moussa (#10 reclassified) 6.6 ppg 6.3 rpg
Wiseman (only 3 games #1/2 in class) 19.7 ppg 10.7 ppg
Malco Dandridge (#106) 3.4 ppg 3.0 rpg
Lance Thomas (#120 at 'Ville): 2.2 ppg 1.3 rpg
Dedric Lawson (#36) 15.8 ppg 9.3 rpg
Nick Marshall (#95) 3.1 ppg 2.7 rpg
Dominic Woodson (#77) 2.5 ppg 1.9 rpg
Austin Nichols (#22) 9.3 ppg 4.3 rpg
Shaq (#35) 7.4 ppg 4.4 ppg
Tarik Black (#62) 9.1 ppg 5.0 rpg
Stan Simpson (#190 at Illinois) 0.5 ppg 0.4 rpg
Hippolyte Tsafack (#174) 1.0 ppg 0.3 rpg


Basically (Tarik being the outlier) only guys 35 or better really contributed as Frosh.

One could expect the guys in the 90-120 range to be 3and 3 guys while the further you do down (in the 180's) those guys were mop ups.

Sam is right in that spot at 100. 3 and 3 would be on target.

But I'm sure people will "explain" that somehow he's the one recruit who hasn't happened to be rated properly and he's more "in the top 30-40 range" if there had been AAU or some other situation.

Just like how Malco was horribly underrated and his skills set, body, and maturity didn't belie his 100+ ranking. Yet somehow after two seasons his still only at 3.6 ppg and 2.9 rpg.

It's not that at all, it is more dependent on roster and need. CDR at 8.3 points per game is 100X better than Brewton at 9.1 points per game. Obviously, you can have a player be infinitely superior to another player, even if they don't score as much.

13.3 Davenport
9.1 Brewton
8.1 Parks

6.9 Jamal Johnson
5.2 Randall (?)

8.3 CDR
7.2 Anderson
6.6 Crawford
5.6 Dozier
4.6 Dorsey

It all depends on Dandridge being healthy, his level of play, and foul trouble on Dandridge and DW. Against some opponents, DW won't be able to guard their center.

If Sam has a pulse and it's completely lost, he is probably looking at 8 minutes at the low end, and 14 minutes at the high end. I'm guessing he will be in the 12 minute range. You can't just shoehorn players into a scoring range based on their ranking. If Sam plays 8 minutes, he will produce at a certain level. If he plays 18 minutes, he will produce at a different level.

Your Dandridge example is invalid, because he hasn't been healthy.

The first three were JUCO's.

The discussion is frosh bigs. Jamal was a top 85 recruit and played a bit above what most #85's would do. He didn't knock it out of the park, but scored more than what would generally be expected.

Then of course the reason--the team sucked and he was allowed to play a bunch.

If you are referring to Craig Randall--he averaged 2.2 as a frosh.

As for Dozier, AA, and Dorsey they were all about where they should have been as frosh based on rankings and placement. Joey is hard to nail down since he was 21 y/o as a frosh and had various rankings and names.

CDR overperformed at #75, probably would be expected to be a 5 and 3 guy in the fat part of the curve.

Chris Crawford also got more play, partially due to the fact there wasn't a lot of depth. There were no returning guards, so his PT was wide open. And that team finished 4th in CUSA and barely made the tournament.

Your Chris Crawford example makes my point. It has to do with the makeup of the roster and playing time, not ranking. If Dandridge isn't healthy, Sam isn't going to get mop up minutes and average 3 and 3. He will play more and his numbers will be a lot closer to Cisse's.

Quote:Jamal was a top 85 recruit and played a bit above what most #85's would do.
Quote:CDR overperformed at #75

46 Anderson
58 CDR
162 Johnson

Quote:The first three were JUCO's.

Replace Randall with Thornton...

High School/Juco Ranking
173 Johnson
153 Davenport
233 Brewton
342 Parks
342 Thornton

Also not relevant, because they were the same ages.

First Year...
22 Dorsey
20 Anderson
20 Dozier

21 Brewton
21 Davenport
20 Parks
20 Johnson

Quote:As for Dozier, AA, and Dorsey they were all about where they should have been as frosh based on rankings and placement.

And yet Thornton and Parks scored more than them ranked almost 300 spots lower than Anderson and CDR. Davenport and Johnson were 100 spots lower.

You can't just plug in the numbers according to rankings. It worked quite well because our teams were very similar from 2009-2015. Minot is #38. If Boogie or Warren were here as planned, there is no way he averages double digits. Now he might.

You're comparing JUCO's to frosh, ffs.

Jesus.

The discussion is about bigs.

Freshman bigs.

Sam. Is a big. He will be a frosh.
(This post was last modified: 05-03-2021 02:03 PM by salukiblue.)
05-03-2021 02:00 PM
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salukiblue Offline
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Post: #49
RE: I believe in Sam Onu
Again simple exercise:

Fill in the blanks:

Guys who will play the 4/5.

80 minutes total:

Sam Ayo 18 mpg
Deandre ___ mpg
Josh Minott ___ mpg
Malco Dandridge ___ mpg
Chandler Lawson ___ mpg
Other: ___ mpg
05-03-2021 02:08 PM
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thagr82008 Offline
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Post: #50
RE: I believe in Sam Onu
Going to disagree with a statement that Moussa's video is equally as impressive, if not MORE impressive than Sam's......there is a distinct difference in strength; footwork; patience as well as awareness......And all of those accolades are apparent in Sam's video.......With Moussa's you see extreme athleticism but to play at that level effectively against tougher competition, he will need more strength and better awareness......
05-03-2021 02:20 PM
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Alanda Offline
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Post: #51
RE: I believe in Sam Onu
I'd like to believe in him, but he's going to need touches to be relevant.

(05-03-2021 10:00 AM)TGTiger Wrote:  This thread title made me think I’m going to see you handing out flowers at the airport.



05-03-2021 02:22 PM
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TGTiger Offline
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Post: #52
RE: I believe in Sam Onu
(05-03-2021 01:50 PM)oruvoice Wrote:  
(05-03-2021 01:30 PM)TGTiger Wrote:  
(05-03-2021 12:48 PM)Irse Wrote:  
(05-03-2021 12:30 PM)TGTiger Wrote:  
(05-03-2021 10:41 AM)salukiblue Wrote:  Cisse was really good for a frosh.

Then take into account:

He reclassed from a small school to college.
He only turned 18 last June.
Because of Covid, he didn't get a full summer practicing and working out with other Tigers.

Cisse showed a lot of improvement as the season went on. His hands were always of issue, but so much of that seemed to be issues with pass location (too low) or trying to weave in bullets at a short distance. Guys like Nolley had little rapport with Cisse in terms of have a feel for lob vs. regular pass, etc.

Ideally that would have been remedied over the summer with the opportunity for those guys to play more and know where guys go to spots were.

Very much like Brady and Coxie 2018 vs. 2019. They didn't really have a great connection then the summer of 2019 they worked together on unspoken signals, knowing where to expect passes and where to best get the ball.

Thank you! Way too many armchair coaches overlook Cisse’s background. It’s very relevant in his case.

It's not like he had a bad year. He was the AAC freshman of the year. He could have had a better year if he got to practice some over the summer with the team. Too bad he felt he wasn't getting what he needed at Memphis. (Although I thought he was getting exactly what he needed)

Agreed. I think coming back would do him a world of good. I also think a small vocal minority of our fan base looked at him without taking his background and where he was developmentally into consideration.

Many of those same folks talked about him being a one-and-done player, onto the NBA, after one year in Tiger gear.

So, take it with a grain of salt.

That’s fair - you don’t have to be an NBA talent scout to realize it was always a major reach for him to be one and done.
05-03-2021 02:24 PM
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macgar32 Offline
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Post: #53
RE: I believe in Sam Onu
(05-03-2021 01:26 PM)salukiblue Wrote:  
(05-03-2021 01:08 PM)macgar32 Wrote:  3 and 3 at 10 minutes a game is pretty darned good production.

If you are getting 12 and 12 out of your center position you can be a pretty good team.

But somehow a guy who averages 3 and 3 in 10 minutes cant play more than 10-12 mintues because that makes the team bad...But 12-12 for 40 is not bad at all. Doesn't make mathematical sense.

Heck Cisse was putting up around 3-3 for every ten minutes.

Listen, this isn't rocket science.

Some people can go for 3 and 3 in 10 minutes and that is fine. They play 2.5 minutes in four little spurts. Their defensive or offensive liabilities aren't exposed for a prolonged period of time. They are expected to play a specific role, not f_ck up, and basically give the starters a breather.

If that person is forced to play extended minutes, bigger issues arise. Being out of position on defense, missing assignments, dropping passes, dumb fouls, etc.

That is literally why teams have bench players designed to play spot minutes. Not because they can't extrapolate 3 and 2 in six minutes to 15 and 10 in 30 minutes, but because during that extra time they start screwing stuff up.

Tyler Harris played 25 minutes as a frosh. Then he played fewer minutes as a Sophomore. Will he play 20+ minutes a game this year? No, partly because he becomes a liability if asked to play extended minutes.

And...if I tell you right now Tyler will play 25 minutes a game what does that mean?

Do you take that as meaning Tyler got SO good over the summer Penny had no choice to play him over Nolley and Les, or is it because Nolley, ALo, and Les aren't playing.

Chances are it's the latter and if he's playing >25 mpg that very well means bad things for Memphis. Essentially someone like Les or Landers is off the team or sustained a serious injury.

No one in their right mind, based upon ANY relevant data should be suggesting Sam play anywhere close to 20 mpg. If he is, he has either blasted expectations out of this world or players are missing and/or gone.

Lol...Tyler will play less minutes because we have better options not because if he plays more he will get exposed.

If Tyler was better than the other options he would play more.

If Sam plays less minutes it is because we have better options...Not because he is going to screw up or get exposed.

Your logic is severely flawed...Everything is relative to the your Comps on your team.

If Sam produces 3 and 3 wouldn't that be more efficient. Bad knees Malcolm may not get back to his potential.

So you are saying we lost 20Mpg at center...Added Sam and Chandler.

Malcolm has been producing less than 3 and 3 in 10 minutes...

Chandler has been producing less than 3 and 3 in 10 minutes...

But if Sam produces 3 and 3 in 10 minutes he is a liability and needs to be hurried to the bench.

You are really reaching here.

Again I am not saying Sam will out produce these guys but it is definitely possible. It is not some great dramatic improvement if Sam does that, as proven by the players I posted earlier.
(This post was last modified: 05-03-2021 02:49 PM by macgar32.)
05-03-2021 02:30 PM
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salukiblue Offline
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Post: #54
RE: I believe in Sam Onu
(05-03-2021 02:30 PM)macgar32 Wrote:  
(05-03-2021 01:26 PM)salukiblue Wrote:  
(05-03-2021 01:08 PM)macgar32 Wrote:  3 and 3 at 10 minutes a game is pretty darned good production.

If you are getting 12 and 12 out of your center position you can be a pretty good team.

But somehow a guy who averages 3 and 3 in 10 minutes cant play more than 10-12 mintues because that makes the team bad...But 12-12 for 40 is not bad at all. Doesn't make mathematical sense.

Heck Cisse was putting up around 3-3 for every ten minutes.

Listen, this isn't rocket science.

Some people can go for 3 and 3 in 10 minutes and that is fine. They play 2.5 minutes in four little spurts. Their defensive or offensive liabilities aren't exposed for a prolonged period of time. They are expected to play a specific role, not f_ck up, and basically give the starters a breather.

If that person is forced to play extended minutes, bigger issues arise. Being out of position on defense, missing assignments, dropping passes, dumb fouls, etc.

That is literally why teams have bench players designed to play spot minutes. Not because they can't extrapolate 3 and 2 in six minutes to 15 and 10 in 30 minutes, but because during that extra time they start screwing stuff up.

Tyler Harris played 25 minutes as a frosh. Then he played fewer minutes as a Sophomore. Will he play 20+ minutes a game this year? No, partly because he becomes a liability if asked to play extended minutes.

And...if I tell you right now Tyler will play 25 minutes a game what does that mean?

Do you take that as meaning Tyler got SO good over the summer Penny had no choice to play him over Nolley and Les, or is it because Nolley, ALo, and Les aren't playing.

Chances are it's the latter and if he's playing >25 mpg that very well means bad things for Memphis. Essentially someone like Les or Landers is off the team or sustained a serious injury.

No one in their right mind, based upon ANY relevant data should be suggesting Sam play anywhere close to 20 mpg. If he is, he has either blasted expectations out of this world or players are missing and/or gone.

Lol...Tyler will play less minutes because we have better options not because if he plays more he will get exposed.

If Tyler was better than the other options he would play more.

If Sam plays less minutes it is because we have better options...Not because he is going to screw up or get exposed.

Your logic is severely flawed...Everything is relative to the your Comps on your team.

You are really reaching here.

Not at all. The reason a player doesn't play more is because they aren't better.

That's the whole point.

And...you can't extrapolate at 5 minutes and just casually assume that at 20 minutes he will do 4x what he did at 5.

Steven Pearl was a perfect example of a guy who was good at 5 mpg but was a cluster at 20.

Some guys can come in when reserves are on the court and match up well. Tyler, for one is a better player when playing against lesser quality. When he's guarding 6'4 guards or being guarded by 6'4 guys he isn't as productive.

That's where the "getting exposed" comes into play. If he's in a six possession stint and he's only guarding a 6'3 guy two possessions and that guy only gets one possession where he posts Tyler up and help comes over and the shot is missed, that's cool. That can't be the norm for 25 minutes a game, though.

Again, I don't think there is rational argument that can be made that doesn't acknowledge that of the bigs slated to play, Sam will be the least ready to play. Base it on current D1 skill level, experience, or recruiting rankings (or a combo of them all) so saying the least ready guy will be getting 20 minutes a game means other players are not playing. And that is not good.
05-03-2021 02:46 PM
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macgar32 Offline
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Post: #55
RE: I believe in Sam Onu
(05-03-2021 02:46 PM)salukiblue Wrote:  
(05-03-2021 02:30 PM)macgar32 Wrote:  
(05-03-2021 01:26 PM)salukiblue Wrote:  
(05-03-2021 01:08 PM)macgar32 Wrote:  3 and 3 at 10 minutes a game is pretty darned good production.

If you are getting 12 and 12 out of your center position you can be a pretty good team.

But somehow a guy who averages 3 and 3 in 10 minutes cant play more than 10-12 mintues because that makes the team bad...But 12-12 for 40 is not bad at all. Doesn't make mathematical sense.

Heck Cisse was putting up around 3-3 for every ten minutes.

Listen, this isn't rocket science.

Some people can go for 3 and 3 in 10 minutes and that is fine. They play 2.5 minutes in four little spurts. Their defensive or offensive liabilities aren't exposed for a prolonged period of time. They are expected to play a specific role, not f_ck up, and basically give the starters a breather.

If that person is forced to play extended minutes, bigger issues arise. Being out of position on defense, missing assignments, dropping passes, dumb fouls, etc.

That is literally why teams have bench players designed to play spot minutes. Not because they can't extrapolate 3 and 2 in six minutes to 15 and 10 in 30 minutes, but because during that extra time they start screwing stuff up.

Tyler Harris played 25 minutes as a frosh. Then he played fewer minutes as a Sophomore. Will he play 20+ minutes a game this year? No, partly because he becomes a liability if asked to play extended minutes.

And...if I tell you right now Tyler will play 25 minutes a game what does that mean?

Do you take that as meaning Tyler got SO good over the summer Penny had no choice to play him over Nolley and Les, or is it because Nolley, ALo, and Les aren't playing.

Chances are it's the latter and if he's playing >25 mpg that very well means bad things for Memphis. Essentially someone like Les or Landers is off the team or sustained a serious injury.

No one in their right mind, based upon ANY relevant data should be suggesting Sam play anywhere close to 20 mpg. If he is, he has either blasted expectations out of this world or players are missing and/or gone.

Lol...Tyler will play less minutes because we have better options not because if he plays more he will get exposed.

If Tyler was better than the other options he would play more.

If Sam plays less minutes it is because we have better options...Not because he is going to screw up or get exposed.

Your logic is severely flawed...Everything is relative to the your Comps on your team.

You are really reaching here.

Not at all. The reason a player doesn't play more is because they aren't better.

That's the whole point.

And...you can't extrapolate at 5 minutes and just casually assume that at 20 minutes he will do 4x what he did at 5.

Steven Pearl was a perfect example of a guy who was good at 5 mpg but was a cluster at 20.

Some guys can come in when reserves are on the court and match up well. Tyler, for one is a better player when playing against lesser quality. When he's guarding 6'4 guards or being guarded by 6'4 guys he isn't as productive.

That's where the "getting exposed" comes into play. If he's in a six possession stint and he's only guarding a 6'3 guy two possessions and that guy only gets one possession where he posts Tyler up and help comes over and the shot is missed, that's cool. That can't be the norm for 25 minutes a game, though.

Again, I don't think there is rational argument that can be made that doesn't acknowledge that of the bigs slated to play, Sam will be the least ready to play. Base it on current D1 skill level, experience, or recruiting rankings (or a combo of them all) so saying the least ready guy will be getting 20 minutes a game means other players are not playing. And that is not good.

So you are saying the Chandler and Malcolm are going to improve greatly over what they have produced in their previous 2 years. Because 3 and 3 in 10 is better than what they have proven they can do in the past.
05-03-2021 02:52 PM
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salukiblue Offline
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Post: #56
RE: I believe in Sam Onu
(05-03-2021 02:52 PM)macgar32 Wrote:  So you are saying the Chandler and Malcolm are going to improve greatly over what they have produced in their previous 2 years. Because 3 and 3 in 10 is better than what they have proven they can do in the past.

I will say two players who were 95-105 who have two years of D1 experience and know Penny's system should play more than an incoming 105 rated player who didn't play high school basketball this past year.

And I will ask this again:

Again simple exercise:

Fill in the blanks:

Guys who will play the 4/5.

80 minutes total:

Sam Ayo 18 mpg
Deandre ___ mpg
Josh Minott ___ mpg
Malco Dandridge ___ mpg
Chandler Lawson ___ mpg
Other: ___ mpg
(This post was last modified: 05-03-2021 02:59 PM by salukiblue.)
05-03-2021 02:58 PM
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macgar32 Offline
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Post: #57
RE: I believe in Sam Onu
(05-03-2021 02:58 PM)salukiblue Wrote:  
(05-03-2021 02:52 PM)macgar32 Wrote:  So you are saying the Chandler and Malcolm are going to improve greatly over what they have produced in their previous 2 years. Because 3 and 3 in 10 is better than what they have proven they can do in the past.

I will say two players who were 95-105 who have two years of D1 experience and know Penny's system should play more than an incoming 105 rated player who didn't play high school basketball this past year.

And I will ask this again:

Again simple exercise:

Fill in the blanks:

Guys who will play the 4/5.

80 minutes total:

Sam Ayo 18 mpg
Deandre ___ mpg
Josh Minott ___ mpg
Malco Dandridge ___ mpg
Chandler Lawson ___ mpg
Other: ___ mpg

It all depends on who is better between Malcolm, Chandler and Sam.

That is what will determine that Matrix. I don't think there is a huge gap between them. If Sam is the 2nd best...15 minutes is not an impossibility. If he is the best 20 minutes is probable.
05-03-2021 03:01 PM
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salukiblue Offline
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Post: #58
RE: I believe in Sam Onu
Here's my take:

(and this is assuming real games....not blowouts)

Again simple exercise:

Fill in the blanks:

Guys who will play the 4/5.

80 minutes total:

Sam Ayo 6 mpg
Deandre _27_ mpg
Josh Minott _15__ mpg
Malco Dandridge _12__ mpg
Chandler Lawson _17__ mpg
Other: _3__ mpg
05-03-2021 03:01 PM
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macgar32 Offline
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Post: #59
RE: I believe in Sam Onu
(05-03-2021 03:01 PM)salukiblue Wrote:  Here's my take:

(and this is assuming real games....not blowouts)

Again simple exercise:

Fill in the blanks:

Guys who will play the 4/5.

80 minutes total:

Sam Ayo 6 mpg
Deandre _27_ mpg
Josh Minott _15__ mpg
Malco Dandridge _12__ mpg
Chandler Lawson _17__ mpg
Other: _3__ mpg

Malcolm and Chandler...Neither have proven they are go to post guys...So expecting them to chew up 30 minutes may not happen. That is the point.

We lost 20 minutes...Malcolm played 13 minutes...That is 33 minutes plus the ~7 minutes DJ played at the 4. Then you have also lost 20 minutes from Boogie to be filled Q and the New Transfer (He gets DJs Minutes plus fills is some of the Gap From Boogie).

There are more minutes for bigs this year than there were last year...Because we lost more minutes at guard than we gained in replacements.
(This post was last modified: 05-03-2021 03:08 PM by macgar32.)
05-03-2021 03:02 PM
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salukiblue Offline
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Post: #60
RE: I believe in Sam Onu
(05-03-2021 03:01 PM)macgar32 Wrote:  
(05-03-2021 02:58 PM)salukiblue Wrote:  
(05-03-2021 02:52 PM)macgar32 Wrote:  So you are saying the Chandler and Malcolm are going to improve greatly over what they have produced in their previous 2 years. Because 3 and 3 in 10 is better than what they have proven they can do in the past.

I will say two players who were 95-105 who have two years of D1 experience and know Penny's system should play more than an incoming 105 rated player who didn't play high school basketball this past year.

And I will ask this again:

Again simple exercise:

Fill in the blanks:

Guys who will play the 4/5.

80 minutes total:

Sam Ayo 18 mpg
Deandre ___ mpg
Josh Minott ___ mpg
Malco Dandridge ___ mpg
Chandler Lawson ___ mpg
Other: ___ mpg

It all depends on who is better between Malcolm, Chandler and Sam.

That is what will determine that Matrix. I don't think there is a huge gap between them. If Sam is the 2nd best...15 minutes is not an impossibility. If he is the best 20 minutes is probable.

If he's getting 20 minutes, he's AAC ROY and Malcolm has xferred after the 1st semester after being relegated to mop up duty.

Literally, he will be in the company of three MCDaa's, a guy who made it to the NBA, and a guy who was AAC ROY and then 1st AAC as a Soph.
05-03-2021 03:07 PM
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