Hello There, Guest! (LoginRegister)
Open TigerLinks
 

Post Reply 
I believe in Sam Onu
Author Message
Bookmark and Share
macgar32 Offline
Legend
*

Posts: 29,929
Joined: Dec 2007
Reputation: 649
I Root For: Memphis
Location: Bartlett
Post: #61
RE: I believe in Sam Onu
(05-03-2021 03:07 PM)salukiblue Wrote:  
(05-03-2021 03:01 PM)macgar32 Wrote:  
(05-03-2021 02:58 PM)salukiblue Wrote:  
(05-03-2021 02:52 PM)macgar32 Wrote:  So you are saying the Chandler and Malcolm are going to improve greatly over what they have produced in their previous 2 years. Because 3 and 3 in 10 is better than what they have proven they can do in the past.

I will say two players who were 95-105 who have two years of D1 experience and know Penny's system should play more than an incoming 105 rated player who didn't play high school basketball this past year.

And I will ask this again:

Again simple exercise:

Fill in the blanks:

Guys who will play the 4/5.

80 minutes total:

Sam Ayo 18 mpg
Deandre ___ mpg
Josh Minott ___ mpg
Malco Dandridge ___ mpg
Chandler Lawson ___ mpg
Other: ___ mpg

It all depends on who is better between Malcolm, Chandler and Sam.

That is what will determine that Matrix. I don't think there is a huge gap between them. If Sam is the 2nd best...15 minutes is not an impossibility. If he is the best 20 minutes is probable.

If he's getting 20 minutes, he's AAC ROY and Malcolm has xferred after the 1st semester after being relegated to mop up duty.

Literally, he will be in the company of three MCDaa's, a guy who made it to the NBA, and a guy who was AAC ROY and then 1st AAC as a Soph.

6 and 4 is not AAC rookie of the year unless he is monster on defense.
05-03-2021 03:11 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
Stammers Offline
Legend
*

Posts: 32,825
Joined: Feb 2004
Reputation: 1311
I Root For: Memphis
Location: Montreal, Canada
Post: #62
RE: I believe in Sam Onu
(05-03-2021 02:00 PM)salukiblue Wrote:  
(05-03-2021 01:53 PM)Stammers Wrote:  
(05-03-2021 12:59 PM)salukiblue Wrote:  
(05-03-2021 12:44 PM)Stammers Wrote:  
(05-03-2021 11:12 AM)salukiblue Wrote:  10-12?

Let's put things in perspective:

Last 10+ years of bigs (frosh stats):

Moussa (#10 reclassified) 6.6 ppg 6.3 rpg
Wiseman (only 3 games #1/2 in class) 19.7 ppg 10.7 ppg
Malco Dandridge (#106) 3.4 ppg 3.0 rpg
Lance Thomas (#120 at 'Ville): 2.2 ppg 1.3 rpg
Dedric Lawson (#36) 15.8 ppg 9.3 rpg
Nick Marshall (#95) 3.1 ppg 2.7 rpg
Dominic Woodson (#77) 2.5 ppg 1.9 rpg
Austin Nichols (#22) 9.3 ppg 4.3 rpg
Shaq (#35) 7.4 ppg 4.4 ppg
Tarik Black (#62) 9.1 ppg 5.0 rpg
Stan Simpson (#190 at Illinois) 0.5 ppg 0.4 rpg
Hippolyte Tsafack (#174) 1.0 ppg 0.3 rpg


Basically (Tarik being the outlier) only guys 35 or better really contributed as Frosh.

One could expect the guys in the 90-120 range to be 3and 3 guys while the further you do down (in the 180's) those guys were mop ups.

Sam is right in that spot at 100. 3 and 3 would be on target.

But I'm sure people will "explain" that somehow he's the one recruit who hasn't happened to be rated properly and he's more "in the top 30-40 range" if there had been AAU or some other situation.

Just like how Malco was horribly underrated and his skills set, body, and maturity didn't belie his 100+ ranking. Yet somehow after two seasons his still only at 3.6 ppg and 2.9 rpg.

It's not that at all, it is more dependent on roster and need. CDR at 8.3 points per game is 100X better than Brewton at 9.1 points per game. Obviously, you can have a player be infinitely superior to another player, even if they don't score as much.

13.3 Davenport
9.1 Brewton
8.1 Parks

6.9 Jamal Johnson
5.2 Randall (?)

8.3 CDR
7.2 Anderson
6.6 Crawford
5.6 Dozier
4.6 Dorsey

It all depends on Dandridge being healthy, his level of play, and foul trouble on Dandridge and DW. Against some opponents, DW won't be able to guard their center.

If Sam has a pulse and it's completely lost, he is probably looking at 8 minutes at the low end, and 14 minutes at the high end. I'm guessing he will be in the 12 minute range. You can't just shoehorn players into a scoring range based on their ranking. If Sam plays 8 minutes, he will produce at a certain level. If he plays 18 minutes, he will produce at a different level.

Your Dandridge example is invalid, because he hasn't been healthy.

The first three were JUCO's.

The discussion is frosh bigs. Jamal was a top 85 recruit and played a bit above what most #85's would do. He didn't knock it out of the park, but scored more than what would generally be expected.

Then of course the reason--the team sucked and he was allowed to play a bunch.

If you are referring to Craig Randall--he averaged 2.2 as a frosh.

As for Dozier, AA, and Dorsey they were all about where they should have been as frosh based on rankings and placement. Joey is hard to nail down since he was 21 y/o as a frosh and had various rankings and names.

CDR overperformed at #75, probably would be expected to be a 5 and 3 guy in the fat part of the curve.

Chris Crawford also got more play, partially due to the fact there wasn't a lot of depth. There were no returning guards, so his PT was wide open. And that team finished 4th in CUSA and barely made the tournament.

Your Chris Crawford example makes my point. It has to do with the makeup of the roster and playing time, not ranking. If Dandridge isn't healthy, Sam isn't going to get mop up minutes and average 3 and 3. He will play more and his numbers will be a lot closer to Cisse's.

Quote:Jamal was a top 85 recruit and played a bit above what most #85's would do.
Quote:CDR overperformed at #75

46 Anderson
58 CDR
162 Johnson

Quote:The first three were JUCO's.

Replace Randall with Thornton...

High School/Juco Ranking
173 Johnson
153 Davenport
233 Brewton
342 Parks
342 Thornton

Also not relevant, because they were the same ages.

First Year...
22 Dorsey
20 Anderson
20 Dozier

21 Brewton
21 Davenport
20 Parks
20 Johnson

Quote:As for Dozier, AA, and Dorsey they were all about where they should have been as frosh based on rankings and placement.

And yet Thornton and Parks scored more than them ranked almost 300 spots lower than Anderson and CDR. Davenport and Johnson were 100 spots lower.

You can't just plug in the numbers according to rankings. It worked quite well because our teams were very similar from 2009-2015. Minot is #38. If Boogie or Warren were here as planned, there is no way he averages double digits. Now he might.

You're comparing JUCO's to frosh, ffs.

Jesus.

The discussion is about bigs.

Freshman bigs.

Sam. Is a big. He will be a frosh.

It is weird that you are all of a sudden moving the goal posts all over the place. Before now, you had a formula for every high schooler, juco and transfer, regardless of position. Just plug in the data and it spits out expected production at the D1 level. You boast about being correct in virtually every thread that you participate in. I'm not being facetious and I'm not saying that you are totally wrong. All I'm saying is that based on the makeup of the roster, your one size fits all formula doesn't work.

So if I understand your argument as you are presenting it, merely being a Juco explains why Mike Parks, Raynere Thornton, and Will Coleman, performed at the same level as Tarik Black, Robert Dozier, and Joey Dorsey, even though they were 100-300 spots below them in the rankings, correct? It has nothing to do with the makeup of the roster?

How is it different from other positions?
(This post was last modified: 05-03-2021 03:24 PM by Stammers.)
05-03-2021 03:21 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
Stammers Offline
Legend
*

Posts: 32,825
Joined: Feb 2004
Reputation: 1311
I Root For: Memphis
Location: Montreal, Canada
Post: #63
RE: I believe in Sam Onu
(05-03-2021 02:58 PM)salukiblue Wrote:  
(05-03-2021 02:52 PM)macgar32 Wrote:  So you are saying the Chandler and Malcolm are going to improve greatly over what they have produced in their previous 2 years. Because 3 and 3 in 10 is better than what they have proven they can do in the past.

I will say two players who were 95-105 who have two years of D1 experience and know Penny's system should play more than an incoming 105 rated player who didn't play high school basketball this past year.

And I will ask this again:

Again simple exercise:

Fill in the blanks:

Guys who will play the 4/5.

80 minutes total:

Sam Ayo 18 mpg
Deandre ___ mpg
Josh Minott ___ mpg
Malco Dandridge ___ mpg
Chandler Lawson ___ mpg
Other: ___ mpg

Minott isn't going to play a minute at the 5, and he weighs 175 pounds, which is a little light for a freshman to play that position, and besides, he wasn't a 4 in high school. Lawson has no experience there either, and Williams needs to see most of his minutes at the 4. Assuming Williams plays a minimum of 20 minutes at the 4 and gets 8 at center. If Williams is only playing 20 minutes at the 4, then you have Chandler and possibly Camden getting the rest of them. If Williams' minutes are dispersed differently, it means that someone else has blown up at the 4, or we are going to be weak there all things considered.

Malcolm might be good for 24, or he might only be good for 14, we don't know. At the low end, Sam is looking at 8 minutes and at the high end, he could be looking at 16.
05-03-2021 03:37 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
Irse Offline
Special Teams
*

Posts: 554
Joined: Feb 2004
Reputation: 22
I Root For: Memphis
Location: Mililani, HI
Post: #64
RE: I believe in Sam Onu
(05-03-2021 03:37 PM)Stammers Wrote:  
(05-03-2021 02:58 PM)salukiblue Wrote:  
(05-03-2021 02:52 PM)macgar32 Wrote:  So you are saying the Chandler and Malcolm are going to improve greatly over what they have produced in their previous 2 years. Because 3 and 3 in 10 is better than what they have proven they can do in the past.

I will say two players who were 95-105 who have two years of D1 experience and know Penny's system should play more than an incoming 105 rated player who didn't play high school basketball this past year.

And I will ask this again:

Again simple exercise:

Fill in the blanks:

Guys who will play the 4/5.

80 minutes total:

Sam Ayo 18 mpg
Deandre ___ mpg
Josh Minott ___ mpg
Malco Dandridge ___ mpg
Chandler Lawson ___ mpg
Other: ___ mpg

Minott isn't going to play a minute at the 5, and he weighs 175 pounds, which is a little light for a freshman to play that position, and besides, he wasn't a 4 in high school. Lawson has no experience there either, and Williams needs to see most of his minutes at the 4. Assuming Williams plays a minimum of 20 minutes at the 4 and gets 8 at center. If Williams is only playing 20 minutes at the 4, then you have Chandler and possibly Camden getting the rest of them. If Williams' minutes are dispersed differently, it means that someone else has blown up at the 4, or we are going to be weak there all things considered.

Malcolm might be good for 24, or he might only be good for 14, we don't know. At the low end, Sam is looking at 8 minutes and at the high end, he could be looking at 16.

Can Timberlake play the 4? Kind of like how DJ did at times.
05-03-2021 03:50 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
salukiblue Offline
Liaison to the Dummies
*

Posts: 30,105
Joined: Aug 2004
Reputation: 1177
I Root For: Space Mountain
Location: Tennessee
Post: #65
RE: I believe in Sam Onu
(05-03-2021 03:21 PM)Stammers Wrote:  
(05-03-2021 02:00 PM)salukiblue Wrote:  
(05-03-2021 01:53 PM)Stammers Wrote:  
(05-03-2021 12:59 PM)salukiblue Wrote:  
(05-03-2021 12:44 PM)Stammers Wrote:  It's not that at all, it is more dependent on roster and need. CDR at 8.3 points per game is 100X better than Brewton at 9.1 points per game. Obviously, you can have a player be infinitely superior to another player, even if they don't score as much.

13.3 Davenport
9.1 Brewton
8.1 Parks

6.9 Jamal Johnson
5.2 Randall (?)

8.3 CDR
7.2 Anderson
6.6 Crawford
5.6 Dozier
4.6 Dorsey

It all depends on Dandridge being healthy, his level of play, and foul trouble on Dandridge and DW. Against some opponents, DW won't be able to guard their center.

If Sam has a pulse and it's completely lost, he is probably looking at 8 minutes at the low end, and 14 minutes at the high end. I'm guessing he will be in the 12 minute range. You can't just shoehorn players into a scoring range based on their ranking. If Sam plays 8 minutes, he will produce at a certain level. If he plays 18 minutes, he will produce at a different level.

Your Dandridge example is invalid, because he hasn't been healthy.

The first three were JUCO's.

The discussion is frosh bigs. Jamal was a top 85 recruit and played a bit above what most #85's would do. He didn't knock it out of the park, but scored more than what would generally be expected.

Then of course the reason--the team sucked and he was allowed to play a bunch.

If you are referring to Craig Randall--he averaged 2.2 as a frosh.

As for Dozier, AA, and Dorsey they were all about where they should have been as frosh based on rankings and placement. Joey is hard to nail down since he was 21 y/o as a frosh and had various rankings and names.

CDR overperformed at #75, probably would be expected to be a 5 and 3 guy in the fat part of the curve.

Chris Crawford also got more play, partially due to the fact there wasn't a lot of depth. There were no returning guards, so his PT was wide open. And that team finished 4th in CUSA and barely made the tournament.

Your Chris Crawford example makes my point. It has to do with the makeup of the roster and playing time, not ranking. If Dandridge isn't healthy, Sam isn't going to get mop up minutes and average 3 and 3. He will play more and his numbers will be a lot closer to Cisse's.

Quote:Jamal was a top 85 recruit and played a bit above what most #85's would do.
Quote:CDR overperformed at #75

46 Anderson
58 CDR
162 Johnson

Quote:The first three were JUCO's.

Replace Randall with Thornton...

High School/Juco Ranking
173 Johnson
153 Davenport
233 Brewton
342 Parks
342 Thornton

Also not relevant, because they were the same ages.

First Year...
22 Dorsey
20 Anderson
20 Dozier

21 Brewton
21 Davenport
20 Parks
20 Johnson

Quote:As for Dozier, AA, and Dorsey they were all about where they should have been as frosh based on rankings and placement.

And yet Thornton and Parks scored more than them ranked almost 300 spots lower than Anderson and CDR. Davenport and Johnson were 100 spots lower.

You can't just plug in the numbers according to rankings. It worked quite well because our teams were very similar from 2009-2015. Minot is #38. If Boogie or Warren were here as planned, there is no way he averages double digits. Now he might.

You're comparing JUCO's to frosh, ffs.

Jesus.

The discussion is about bigs.

Freshman bigs.

Sam. Is a big. He will be a frosh.

It is weird that you are all of a sudden moving the goal posts all over the place. Before now, you had a formula for every high schooler, juco and transfer, regardless of position. Just plug in the data and it spits out expected production at the D1 level. You boast about being correct in virtually every thread that you participate in. I'm not being facetious and I'm not saying that you are totally wrong. All I'm saying is that based on the makeup of the roster, your one size fits all formula doesn't work.

So if I understand your argument as you are presenting it, merely being a Juco explains why Mike Parks, Raynere Thornton, and Will Coleman, performed at the same level as Tarik Black, Robert Dozier, and Joey Dorsey, even though they were 100-300 spots below them in the rankings, correct? It has nothing to do with the makeup of the roster?

How is it different from other positions?

You're not understanding anything correctly. This discussion was about Sam who is a big and my predictions for how he would fare versus other Memphis bigs in the past 10 years. You brought in all sorts of other players including guards and Ju CO players who are not freshman. I don't know why this is hard to understand but comparing Ju CO stats from Mike parks to freshman stats of Robert Dozier makes no sense at all. If anything compare their junior stats to the 1st year Ju CO stats and get back with me.

Furthermore it absolutely does make sense as to the composition of the roster. So when you are pushing Jamal Johnson stats compared to CDR's it was easy to point out that Jamal played for a crapy team.

This team will be expected to go to the ncaa tourney and that is why a 100+ recruit probably won't get much playing time for this team. If he played for a sorry team that didn't have any bigs worthwhile than he might get more playing time. It still doesn't mean he is any good or worse then what he would be already, it just means you'd be getting more playing time and padding numbers for a bad team.

Which circles back to the Tyler Harris issue. He got 25 minutes as a freshman for a less than an NIT
level team. This year he'll be playing for a team that is expected to go to the NCAAt and obviously won't be getting as much playing time. In fact he's a walk on.

So if I say Tyler will be playing 25 mpg this year, it probably means the team has imploded.

This isn't rocket science.
05-03-2021 03:54 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
Stammers Offline
Legend
*

Posts: 32,825
Joined: Feb 2004
Reputation: 1311
I Root For: Memphis
Location: Montreal, Canada
Post: #66
RE: I believe in Sam Onu
(05-03-2021 03:54 PM)salukiblue Wrote:  
(05-03-2021 03:21 PM)Stammers Wrote:  
(05-03-2021 02:00 PM)salukiblue Wrote:  
(05-03-2021 01:53 PM)Stammers Wrote:  
(05-03-2021 12:59 PM)salukiblue Wrote:  The first three were JUCO's.

The discussion is frosh bigs. Jamal was a top 85 recruit and played a bit above what most #85's would do. He didn't knock it out of the park, but scored more than what would generally be expected.

Then of course the reason--the team sucked and he was allowed to play a bunch.

If you are referring to Craig Randall--he averaged 2.2 as a frosh.

As for Dozier, AA, and Dorsey they were all about where they should have been as frosh based on rankings and placement. Joey is hard to nail down since he was 21 y/o as a frosh and had various rankings and names.

CDR overperformed at #75, probably would be expected to be a 5 and 3 guy in the fat part of the curve.

Chris Crawford also got more play, partially due to the fact there wasn't a lot of depth. There were no returning guards, so his PT was wide open. And that team finished 4th in CUSA and barely made the tournament.

Your Chris Crawford example makes my point. It has to do with the makeup of the roster and playing time, not ranking. If Dandridge isn't healthy, Sam isn't going to get mop up minutes and average 3 and 3. He will play more and his numbers will be a lot closer to Cisse's.

Quote:Jamal was a top 85 recruit and played a bit above what most #85's would do.
Quote:CDR overperformed at #75

46 Anderson
58 CDR
162 Johnson

Quote:The first three were JUCO's.

Replace Randall with Thornton...

High School/Juco Ranking
173 Johnson
153 Davenport
233 Brewton
342 Parks
342 Thornton

Also not relevant, because they were the same ages.

First Year...
22 Dorsey
20 Anderson
20 Dozier

21 Brewton
21 Davenport
20 Parks
20 Johnson

Quote:As for Dozier, AA, and Dorsey they were all about where they should have been as frosh based on rankings and placement.

And yet Thornton and Parks scored more than them ranked almost 300 spots lower than Anderson and CDR. Davenport and Johnson were 100 spots lower.

You can't just plug in the numbers according to rankings. It worked quite well because our teams were very similar from 2009-2015. Minot is #38. If Boogie or Warren were here as planned, there is no way he averages double digits. Now he might.

You're comparing JUCO's to frosh, ffs.

Jesus.

The discussion is about bigs.

Freshman bigs.

Sam. Is a big. He will be a frosh.

It is weird that you are all of a sudden moving the goal posts all over the place. Before now, you had a formula for every high schooler, juco and transfer, regardless of position. Just plug in the data and it spits out expected production at the D1 level. You boast about being correct in virtually every thread that you participate in. I'm not being facetious and I'm not saying that you are totally wrong. All I'm saying is that based on the makeup of the roster, your one size fits all formula doesn't work.

So if I understand your argument as you are presenting it, merely being a Juco explains why Mike Parks, Raynere Thornton, and Will Coleman, performed at the same level as Tarik Black, Robert Dozier, and Joey Dorsey, even though they were 100-300 spots below them in the rankings, correct? It has nothing to do with the makeup of the roster?

How is it different from other positions?

You're not understanding anything correctly. This discussion was about Sam who is a big and my predictions for how he would fare versus other Memphis bigs in the past 10 years. You brought in all sorts of other players including guards and Ju CO players who are not freshman. I don't know why this is hard to understand but comparing Ju CO stats from Mike parks to freshman stats of Robert Dozier makes no sense at all. If anything compare their junior stats to the 1st year Ju CO stats and get back with me.

Furthermore it absolutely does make sense as to the composition of the roster. So when you are pushing Jamal Johnson stats compared to CDR's it was easy to point out that Jamal played for a crapy team.

This team will be expected to go to the ncaa tourney and that is why a 100+ recruit probably won't get much playing time for this team. If he played for a sorry team that didn't have any bigs worthwhile than he might get more playing time. It still doesn't mean he is any good or worse then what he would be already, it just means you'd be getting more playing time and padding numbers for a bad team.

Which circles back to the Tyler Harris issue. He got 25 minutes as a freshman for a less than an NIT
level team. This year he'll be playing for a team that is expected to go to the NCAAt and obviously won't be getting as much playing time. In fact he's a walk on.

So if I say Tyler will be playing 25 mpg this year, it probably means the team has imploded.

This isn't rocket science.

It is rocket science to you, because you are arguing against yourself.

Quote:You brought in all sorts of other players including guards and Ju CO players who are not freshman. I don't know why this is hard to understand but comparing Ju CO stats from Mike parks to freshman stats of Robert Dozier makes no sense at all.

You are saying that it makes sense that a Juco player ranked #352 in his class should score more than a freshman high schooler ranked #62 in his class? Nothing makes less sense.

Sam isn't competing for playing time against Austin, Shaq, Taggart, Coleman, Massie, Dozier, Black or Cisse. He is competing for time against Dandridge, who still isn't healthy, and Williams; who will play most of his minutes at the 4.

Quote:So if I say Tyler will be playing 25 mpg this year, it probably means the team has imploded.

Yes, my exact point. Sam's only real competition at the 5 is Dandridge. If Sam only plays 3 minutes per game, it means that Dandridge is healthy and playing very well, or Sam is really bad. Otherwise, he will play 10 minutes.

The makeup of the roster is just as important as the skill level of the player. I have proven that beyond a doubt with the comparison between 2006 and 2018. You are arguing against yourself.
05-03-2021 04:52 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
Tiger87 Offline
Hall of Famer
*

Posts: 13,171
Joined: Jan 2012
Reputation: 842
I Root For: Memphis
Location:
Post: #67
RE: I believe in Sam Onu
(05-03-2021 11:19 AM)salukiblue Wrote:  Here is the comprehensive list of all Tiger PF/C in the last 20 years who have been ranked #70+ and averaged 4 or more rebounds a game:

Joey Dorsey

Comprehensive?...
Robert Dozier
Shawn Taggart
Will Coleman
Pierre H-N
DJ Stephens
Mike Parks

And maybe...
Duane Erwin
Kyvon Davenport
05-03-2021 05:13 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
Tiger87 Offline
Hall of Famer
*

Posts: 13,171
Joined: Jan 2012
Reputation: 842
I Root For: Memphis
Location:
Post: #68
RE: I believe in Sam Onu
(05-03-2021 12:03 PM)salukiblue Wrote:  If Malcom had been GOOD enough to play more last year (or this year) he would have. Malcolm was healthy enough to play but not good enough to play more. If you are saying he health hurt his effectiveness, then ok, but if it was just a cardio issue, eh.

Bottom line he was 3.4 and 3.0 as a frosh and 3.6 and 2.9 this year. If he had the skill and talent to put up better numbers, he would have played more.

Eh...
Malcolm's knees obviously bother him. Not cardio. There were definitely times he checked himself out, and time where he was not available. Now how much more time would he have gotten? None of us can say. But to say his minutes were strictly a derivative of his skills is just not factual.
05-03-2021 05:19 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
salukiblue Offline
Liaison to the Dummies
*

Posts: 30,105
Joined: Aug 2004
Reputation: 1177
I Root For: Space Mountain
Location: Tennessee
Post: #69
RE: I believe in Sam Onu
(05-03-2021 05:13 PM)Tiger87 Wrote:  
(05-03-2021 11:19 AM)salukiblue Wrote:  Here is the comprehensive list of all Tiger PF/C in the last 20 years who have been ranked #70+ and averaged 4 or more rebounds a game:

Joey Dorsey

Comprehensive?...
Robert Dozier
Shawn Taggart
Will Coleman
Pierre H-N
DJ Stephens
Mike Parks

And maybe...
Duane Erwin
Kyvon Davenport

Frosh.

Somehow that was omitted.
05-03-2021 06:00 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
Stammers Offline
Legend
*

Posts: 32,825
Joined: Feb 2004
Reputation: 1311
I Root For: Memphis
Location: Montreal, Canada
Post: #70
RE: I believe in Sam Onu
(05-03-2021 05:13 PM)Tiger87 Wrote:  
(05-03-2021 11:19 AM)salukiblue Wrote:  Here is the comprehensive list of all Tiger PF/C in the last 20 years who have been ranked #70+ and averaged 4 or more rebounds a game:

Joey Dorsey

Comprehensive?...
Robert Dozier
Shawn Taggart
Will Coleman
Pierre H-N
DJ Stephens
Mike Parks

And maybe...
Duane Erwin
Kyvon Davenport

It's not exactly a giant list. It is 7 players in the last 21 seasons, if you cut it off at #160. Maybe Erwin and Diarra should be on the list also.
77 Woodson - no
79 Dozier - yes
95 Marshall - no
106 Dandridge - no
115 Sam
141 Cooper - no
160 Dorsey - yes

Cooper was playing behind Dorsey, Dozier and Shawne. He would for sure have done it on this year's team. Again though, moving the goal posts makes the argument against, silly. You have Jucos that clearly were vastly inferior to #70 that did it.
05-03-2021 06:23 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
mactigerd Offline
2nd String
*

Posts: 266
Joined: Feb 2007
Reputation: 37
I Root For:
Location:
Post: #71
RE: I believe in Sam Onu
(05-03-2021 11:19 AM)salukiblue Wrote:  Here is the comprehensive list of all Freshman Tiger PF/C in the last 20 years who have been ranked #70+ and averaged 4 or more rebounds a game:

Joey Dorsey

How old was Joey as a Freshman? 20?

I was 17 years old as a college Freshman.

Joey was already a grown A** man on day 1.
05-03-2021 08:01 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
macgar32 Offline
Legend
*

Posts: 29,929
Joined: Dec 2007
Reputation: 649
I Root For: Memphis
Location: Bartlett
Post: #72
RE: I believe in Sam Onu
(05-03-2021 03:54 PM)salukiblue Wrote:  
(05-03-2021 03:21 PM)Stammers Wrote:  
(05-03-2021 02:00 PM)salukiblue Wrote:  
(05-03-2021 01:53 PM)Stammers Wrote:  
(05-03-2021 12:59 PM)salukiblue Wrote:  The first three were JUCO's.

The discussion is frosh bigs. Jamal was a top 85 recruit and played a bit above what most #85's would do. He didn't knock it out of the park, but scored more than what would generally be expected.

Then of course the reason--the team sucked and he was allowed to play a bunch.

If you are referring to Craig Randall--he averaged 2.2 as a frosh.

As for Dozier, AA, and Dorsey they were all about where they should have been as frosh based on rankings and placement. Joey is hard to nail down since he was 21 y/o as a frosh and had various rankings and names.

CDR overperformed at #75, probably would be expected to be a 5 and 3 guy in the fat part of the curve.

Chris Crawford also got more play, partially due to the fact there wasn't a lot of depth. There were no returning guards, so his PT was wide open. And that team finished 4th in CUSA and barely made the tournament.

Your Chris Crawford example makes my point. It has to do with the makeup of the roster and playing time, not ranking. If Dandridge isn't healthy, Sam isn't going to get mop up minutes and average 3 and 3. He will play more and his numbers will be a lot closer to Cisse's.

Quote:Jamal was a top 85 recruit and played a bit above what most #85's would do.
Quote:CDR overperformed at #75

46 Anderson
58 CDR
162 Johnson

Quote:The first three were JUCO's.

Replace Randall with Thornton...

High School/Juco Ranking
173 Johnson
153 Davenport
233 Brewton
342 Parks
342 Thornton

Also not relevant, because they were the same ages.

First Year...
22 Dorsey
20 Anderson
20 Dozier

21 Brewton
21 Davenport
20 Parks
20 Johnson

Quote:As for Dozier, AA, and Dorsey they were all about where they should have been as frosh based on rankings and placement.

And yet Thornton and Parks scored more than them ranked almost 300 spots lower than Anderson and CDR. Davenport and Johnson were 100 spots lower.

You can't just plug in the numbers according to rankings. It worked quite well because our teams were very similar from 2009-2015. Minot is #38. If Boogie or Warren were here as planned, there is no way he averages double digits. Now he might.

You're comparing JUCO's to frosh, ffs.

Jesus.

The discussion is about bigs.

Freshman bigs.

Sam. Is a big. He will be a frosh.

It is weird that you are all of a sudden moving the goal posts all over the place. Before now, you had a formula for every high schooler, juco and transfer, regardless of position. Just plug in the data and it spits out expected production at the D1 level. You boast about being correct in virtually every thread that you participate in. I'm not being facetious and I'm not saying that you are totally wrong. All I'm saying is that based on the makeup of the roster, your one size fits all formula doesn't work.

So if I understand your argument as you are presenting it, merely being a Juco explains why Mike Parks, Raynere Thornton, and Will Coleman, performed at the same level as Tarik Black, Robert Dozier, and Joey Dorsey, even though they were 100-300 spots below them in the rankings, correct? It has nothing to do with the makeup of the roster?

How is it different from other positions?

You're not understanding anything correctly. This discussion was about Sam who is a big and my predictions for how he would fare versus other Memphis bigs in the past 10 years. You brought in all sorts of other players including guards and Ju CO players who are not freshman. I don't know why this is hard to understand but comparing Ju CO stats from Mike parks to freshman stats of Robert Dozier makes no sense at all. If anything compare their junior stats to the 1st year Ju CO stats and get back with me.

Furthermore it absolutely does make sense as to the composition of the roster. So when you are pushing Jamal Johnson stats compared to CDR's it was easy to point out that Jamal played for a crapy team.

This team will be expected to go to the ncaa tourney and that is why a 100+ recruit probably won't get much playing time for this team. If he played for a sorry team that didn't have any bigs worthwhile than he might get more playing time. It still doesn't mean he is any good or worse then what he would be already, it just means you'd be getting more playing time and padding numbers for a bad team.

Which circles back to the Tyler Harris issue. He got 25 minutes as a freshman for a less than an NIT
level team. This year he'll be playing for a team that is expected to go to the NCAAt and obviously won't be getting as much playing time. In fact he's a walk on.

So if I say Tyler will be playing 25 mpg this year, it probably means the team has imploded.

This isn't rocket science.

So please point out a center on this team who has proven they are going to be solid this year...

Heck you already pointed out Malcoms poor performance...But now he is such a good big that a new kid doesn't stand a chance.

Chandler played 18 minutes and averaged 4pts a game...I am sure if I searched you probably crapped on him as well trying to set expectations.

You cant play both sides of this...Our current bigs have performed below expectations for 2 years (Below your 3 and 3 in 10 minutes threshold). What makes you think there will not be a competition this year for the spot.

Any of the kids can improve...Or Sam can play as well as the 5 Centers ranked below 100 in the 247 rankings. 3 on tourney teams...I assume those teams didn't have bigs that were worthwhile.

Thinking Sam can outperfrom what Malcolm has done the past two years in not unreasonable...Malcolm has been hampered by his knees. If that continues that pretty much limits Malcolm's ability to compete.

I haven't watched much of Chandler but his stats don't scream starter either.



We lost 20 minutes at Center...The best center likely gets close to those 20 minutes and Chandler likely gets some minutes at the 4 sliding Deandre to the 3 for some minutes with Lester or Jonathan Stealing some time at point.

Timberlake gets DJs minutes.
(This post was last modified: 05-03-2021 08:36 PM by macgar32.)
05-03-2021 08:16 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
macgar32 Offline
Legend
*

Posts: 29,929
Joined: Dec 2007
Reputation: 649
I Root For: Memphis
Location: Bartlett
Post: #73
RE: I believe in Sam Onu
And as far as the minutes go...We lost 35 minutes in the backcourt as well and added Tyler and Jonathan.

You say Tyler likely isn't getting many minutes unless the team implodes...So lets put him at 10 minutes a game. But you also say a top 100 guy who has experience should perform better than a top 100 player who doesn't...So that puts Jonathan at what 5 minutes a game...So that leaves 20 minutes up for grabs. Or does your computations not work the same with Tyler as they do with Malcolm and Chandler

So based on this Jonathan is a possible redshirt leaving 25 minutes up for grabs.

Players begin to slide down the lineup with Deandre getting some time at the 3 and Chandler getting some time at the 4 in this scenario.

Or lets play your Tyler argument this way...Malcolm only played 13 minutes on a poor team...Then turned around and played 12 minutes on a better team...Using your logic it would be crazy to expect him to play 20 minutes on a NCAA team. Am I doing it right.

Minutes distribution is going to be determined by skillset and fit...You cant look at rankings and say...100ish gets this many minutes based on how good the team is.

Hell it may come down Earl and ALo cant play together because that lineup clogs the lane...Leading to more time for Harris...Who Knows.
(This post was last modified: 05-03-2021 08:48 PM by macgar32.)
05-03-2021 08:38 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
Keeper Offline
1st String
*

Posts: 1,422
Joined: Aug 2017
Reputation: 98
I Root For: Memphis
Location: memphis
Post: #74
RE: I believe in Sam Onu
Sam wil contribute now and in the future. He knows how to play basketball. Something the more talented Cisse hasn't done yet. So Sam will get more minutes than Moussa did.
05-03-2021 09:13 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
macgar32 Offline
Legend
*

Posts: 29,929
Joined: Dec 2007
Reputation: 649
I Root For: Memphis
Location: Bartlett
Post: #75
RE: I believe in Sam Onu
(05-03-2021 09:13 PM)Keeper Wrote:  Sam wil contribute now and in the future. He knows how to play basketball. Something the more talented Cisse hasn't done yet. So Sam will get more minutes than Moussa did.

Yeah...Not sure about all of that.
05-03-2021 10:51 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
FORealTigerFan Offline
Say What?
*

Posts: 4,008
Joined: Nov 2005
Reputation: 118
I Root For: Beer
Location: Olive Branch, MS
Post: #76
RE: I believe in Sam Onu
Sam has been working his tail off to get better. He is going to be a beast for us. Just wait and have faith.
05-04-2021 12:56 AM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
holyterror Offline
Hall of Famer
*

Posts: 14,827
Joined: Apr 2012
Reputation: 783
I Root For: Memphis
Location:
Post: #77
RE: I believe in Sam Onu
If he wants minutes he needs to spend hours working on free throws.
Oversimplified, I know, but there’s truth there.
05-04-2021 03:50 AM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
Atlanta Offline
Heisman
*

Posts: 9,361
Joined: Nov 2009
Reputation: 526
I Root For: Memphis Tigers
Location: Metro Atlanta
Post: #78
RE: I believe in Sam Onu
Does anyone know Sam's FT stats while in HS/prep school?
05-04-2021 06:39 AM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
salukiblue Offline
Liaison to the Dummies
*

Posts: 30,105
Joined: Aug 2004
Reputation: 1177
I Root For: Space Mountain
Location: Tennessee
Post: #79
RE: I believe in Sam Onu
(05-04-2021 06:39 AM)Atlanta Wrote:  Does anyone know Sam's FT stats while in HS/prep school?

It's hard to find anything recent since he hasn't played organized ball since 2019-20.
05-04-2021 07:53 AM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
SeñorTiger Offline
All American
*

Posts: 3,462
Joined: Mar 2018
Reputation: 428
I Root For: Tigers
Location: Fayetteville, AR
Post: #80
RE: I believe in Sam Onu
Some people like to heap unrealistic expectations on players. Like people who expected Tyler Harris to be the next Allen Iverson and then were disappointed when he was not, despite the fact he really produced better than expected for his ranking. The same is being done here to Sam, it simply is not fair to the player. Sam will have a good career as a Tiger and can be a contributor on a high level team. However, as a freshman, it is unlikely he comes in and puts up any kind of significant numbers. But we do not need that from him. If we can get 10-15 minutes of good defense, a few rebounds and maybe a cheap bucket or two then he will be filling the role we need from him. He will need time though...
05-04-2021 08:11 AM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
Post Reply 




User(s) browsing this thread: 3 Guest(s)


Copyright © 2002-2021 Collegiate Sports Nation Bulletin Board System (CSNbbs), All Rights Reserved.
CSNbbs is an independent fan site and is in no way affiliated to the NCAA or any of the schools and conferences it represents.
This site monetizes links. FTC Disclosure.
We allow third-party companies to serve ads and/or collect certain anonymous information when you visit our web site. These companies may use non-personally identifiable information (e.g., click stream information, browser type, time and date, subject of advertisements clicked or scrolled over) during your visits to this and other Web sites in order to provide advertisements about goods and services likely to be of greater interest to you. These companies typically use a cookie or third party web beacon to collect this information. To learn more about this behavioral advertising practice or to opt-out of this type of advertising, you can visit http://www.networkadvertising.org.
Powered By MyBB, © 2002-2021 MyBB Group.
MemphisTigers.org is the number one message board for Memphis Tigers sports.