(04-24-2021 02:10 PM)4xGrad Wrote: My guess is that this last year the AAC tried to get BSU to join in football only. They would then look at picking up a strong BB school. This would have been a very good move on the part of the AAC. It would have added a lot of strength to both FB and BB. They knew Boise was frustrated with the MWC. How frustrated? good question.
They would not know if BSU was willing and able to make the jump unless they tried. I think they tried and it did not work out. I think BSU's frustration with the MWC just did not out weigh the options available (or not available) to move the rest of the sports.
Guessing again... I think the only option to pick up BSU is all sports. So, time for reevaluation. How best to move forward with that? Is the best way forward with a 12 team conference or a 14 team conference with divisions? Go to 12 teams now with the long term goal of 14? Go to 14 now? Stay at 11 and patiently look at future moves?
Just like we are having these conversations I will bet that the conference presidents are having these conversations. I bet they are talking to the TV networks. We have reports that Aresco is talking to schools, at the very least BYU.
I would hope BSU is trying to help out and convince BYU to make the jump. I suspect the BYU will not because of pride but it is worth a shot. If they did it would be beneficial to EVERYONE in my opinion, but convincing the powers that be at BYU will not be easy and will probably take a lot of time to even have a chance at being successful. Do you take the time to try? Do you just give up and try something else?
There is a clock. The AAC needs to position itself as well as possible before the 2025.... probably before 2024.
So what will their move be? It will be based on discussions we are not privy to, but will hear small rumors and snippets about. In the mean time we are left to read tea leaves.
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I suspect that your hunches and AttackCoug's are both right about many of these things. For example, it seems very possible that the BSU-AAC discussions have continued.
It also seems quite likely that the passage of time is an important consideration, with the possibility of a 2025 or 2026 realignment looming like a larger and larger version of the fabled sword of Damocles over everyone's heads. No one knows which - if any - conference(s) might be affected, but the fears are great enough that the AAC and MWC have reason to be concerned about losing members.
One of the reasons why an AAC expansion to 14 would make so much sense (beyond the obvious benefits of becoming an instant power conference) is that,
if the Big 12 were to scoop up 2 or 3 AAC teams, the conference would be left in much better shape with 11 or 12 members than with only 9 or 10. A 12-team AAC, shorn of Houston and Memphis, but with Boise, BYU, Air Force and the rest could still have a reasonable shot at redeveloping into a power conference, but a 9 or 10-member AAC might need divine intervention to become a P6 before the end of the 21st century.
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Like you, I would be surprised if Boise would go for FB-only membership unless they get an unexpected invitation from the WCC or something like that. I had been thinking that the WAC might be acceptable to them, but you nixed that idea even though they'll have two fairly good BB programs that Boise could compete with for NCAA bids, but also because their travel expenses in the WAC would probably be nearly the same as they are in the MWC or would be in the AAC - - but without the $1.5 to $2 million of revenue from the MWC or AAC.
Would the AAC consider extending an offer of all-sports membership if, say BYU and a MWC team were to join for all-sports? Possibly, since the 3 westernmost BB teams could play each other and play most of their other conference games in the AAC West division. Their views on this topic may be an example of a "known unknown."
However,
I would like to suggest a type of compromise proposal that might be considered acceptable by both parties:
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This idea might not go anywhere, but it might be worth mentioning as a possible way to persuade Boise St. to sign on the dotted line:
It might be worthwhile to propose an option such as granting Boise St. a full membership on a trial basis for 2-3 seasons, at first, with certain stipulations.
For example, if the conference is unwilling to consider expanding beyond 14 FB/BB members, and if two all-sports members are approved by the conference, and if a BB school such as VCU becomes a member, that would leave the AAC with 14 FB schools and 15 BB schools.
To deal with that kind of scenario, if it were ever to arise, the contract could stipulate that, at that point, the conference Presidents would have
the option to modify Boise's membership from all-sports to FB-only membership.
If the contract were to stipulate that it would be up to the conference to decide whether to exercise that option or not - - at some hypothetical date that might never come - - it might not have much reason to cause Boise significant concern, since such a scenario might never unfold, and even if it ever were to unfold, things might be different then, and Boise might have enough friends in the conference to win such a vote.
Example: Although there was some strong opposition and fierce debate about the proposal to add the trio of Tulane, ECU, and Tulsa in 2014, the conference adjusted quickly to their addition, and apparently, there has never been a strong move to replace any of them or modify their memberships since then.
It's just an idea, but Boise might get a majority vote for a sort of trial all-sports membership from the AAC Presidents with the option to revisit such a decision under certain highly-specified conditions, and Boise might agree to it, based on the assumptions that: (a) the specified conditions might never come about, or a motion to discuss the idea of modifying their membership might not pass, and (b) even if it did, the conference might be highly disinclined to modify their status for fear of losing their FB program.
Not sure if this will go anywhere, but if anyone reads it, they might want to pass it along. It's the kind of idea that could be tweaked, with various other conditions to enhance it further.
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p.s. You've written that you wouldn't expect Air Force to join the AAC, since they apparently rejected an invitation to join the Big East at one point. If BYU and Boise were both to join, which MWC school would you expect to be most likely to be the third western team to join in a 14-team expanded AAC?
Most AAC fans have put Air Force and SDSU near the top of their lists, but SDSU's AD made a pretty unequivocal statement to the effect that "even if San Diego State had any interest in joining the AAC" (which they apparently don't), "they wouldn't even consider joining for FB-only." That isn't exactly the kind of response that would make anyone expect that SDSU would show much interest in joining under any circumstances.
CSU is the #3 school that AAC fans have envisioned as a possible all-sports or FB member, due largely to their relative proximity and some degree of national recognition as a major State University in an important U.S. State, not too far from Denver. However, their teams have had very limited success in the past decade, overall.
Most of the other MWC schools, such as Hawaii, Fresno St., SJSU, and the two Nevada schools are either as distant as Boise, or have had much less athletic success and haven't had strong viewership numbers (e.g., New Mexico, Wyoming).
Hardly anyone has mentioned Utah State, but I could see them as being a good addition, alongside Boise and BYU, because of their proximity, their existing rivalries, and the fact that Utah State is close enough to Salt Lake City to generate viewership there.
Their FB/BB teams did nothing in 2020-21 (mulligan), but four of their FB teams since 2011 won 9, 10, or 11 games, and they played in 8 bowl games between 2011 and 2019.
In addition, the Utah State basketball teams had considerable success in 2018-19 (28-7; NCAA team; finished in the Final AP Top 25), 2019-20 (26-8; NCAA-qualified team; nationally-ranked during mid-season), and 2020-21 (20-9; NCAA team; finished in the Final AP Top 25).
Moreover, Utah State has had a strong basketball legacy. Fifteen Utah State teams finished their seasons with 21+ wins in the 20 seasons between 2001-02 and 2020-21; 9 of these teams played in or qualified to play in the NCAA tournament; 4 played in the NIT, and one advanced to the finals of the 2012 CIT.
It would be a close call, but I'm guessing that, with their track record of football and basketball success, Utah State and Boise State might be able to secure invitations to join the AAC as all-sports members as part of a three-school deal that would bring BYU and Boise State into the conference. Whether or not a potential Utah State membership would be enough to sway BYU in the AAC's direction is something I don't know enough to predict. My guess would be that, if anything could sway BYU as part of a three-school deal, it might be more likely to be Utah State, SDSU, or Air Force, as opposed to any of the other MWC schools, with the possible exception of CSU.
Would be interested in knowing if that would make sense from a western Idahoan's standpoint.
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