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[split] BYU/CFP/playoff split discussion
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quo vadis Offline
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Post: #41
RE: [split] BYU/CFP/playoff split discussion
(01-08-2021 11:05 AM)ken d Wrote:  If they could snag the same status as ND, though, they could still get an NY6 berth even if they don't qualify for the CFP. I believe they would be perfectly happy with that.

In their entire history, BYU has never played in a major bowl game. They can't be happy with that. They have been stuck in a rut of Holiday Bowls and Las Vegas Bowls since basically forever.
(This post was last modified: 01-08-2021 09:51 PM by quo vadis.)
01-08-2021 09:50 PM
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Post: #42
RE: [split] BYU/CFP/playoff split discussion
(01-08-2021 09:50 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(01-08-2021 11:05 AM)ken d Wrote:  If they could snag the same status as ND, though, they could still get an NY6 berth even if they don't qualify for the CFP. I believe they would be perfectly happy with that.

In their entire history, BYU has never played in a major bowl game. They can't be happy with that. They have been stuck in a rut of Holiday Bowls and Las Vegas Bowls since basically forever.

I think BYU is the best bet to be a P5 school that isn’t unanimously agreed on. I read someone a while back the SEC considers them a P5 equivalent in scheduling.
01-08-2021 09:53 PM
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quo vadis Offline
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Post: #43
RE: [split] BYU/CFP/playoff split discussion
(01-08-2021 09:53 PM)Troy_Fan_15 Wrote:  
(01-08-2021 09:50 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(01-08-2021 11:05 AM)ken d Wrote:  If they could snag the same status as ND, though, they could still get an NY6 berth even if they don't qualify for the CFP. I believe they would be perfectly happy with that.

In their entire history, BYU has never played in a major bowl game. They can't be happy with that. They have been stuck in a rut of Holiday Bowls and Las Vegas Bowls since basically forever.

I think BYU is the best bet to be a P5 school that isn’t unanimously agreed on. I read someone a while back the SEC considers them a P5 equivalent in scheduling.

Yes, but the SEC also counts Army as well, so there's that.

About BYU - Notre Dame. IIRC, about 10 years ago, they signed a deal to play each other six times before 2020. But to my recollection, they have only played twice since then, the last time in 2013, so I'm not sure what happened with that deal. Maybe it was somehow superseded by ND's scheduling deal with the ACC.

I do know that just last year, when BYU signed a new TV deal with ESPN, a BYU official said Notre Dame still owed them a game (not four) to be played, a home game for BYU. But I don't know what's up with that either.
(This post was last modified: 01-08-2021 10:01 PM by quo vadis.)
01-08-2021 09:58 PM
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The Cutter of Bish Offline
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Post: #44
RE: [split] BYU/CFP/playoff split discussion
(01-08-2021 01:42 PM)Wedge Wrote:  IMO, if BYU does run the table against a schedule that challenging, then even this committee would recognize that.

This committee made a team who only played six games the three-seed and sent Iowa State to the Fiesta Bowl.

I don’t understand or may simply just disagree with the logic that the committee has any rational or fair considerations in mind. This thing is a power conference circle j***. I think Notre Dame partially parking in the ACC with two dedicated PAC games does enough for them so they keep their rub, but BYU is simply an interloper; an inconvenience.

I do wish I could agree, though. I want to. It definitely looks like a duck and quacks like a duck with respect to playing a major schedule and demonstrating that worthiness. I just don’t believe in the committee honoring or recognizing it. At best, with their overall popularity and legacy, they may be a/the preferred G5 entry, but “G5” with all that comes with it: namely, a snub. They’re definitely the best positioned with their schedules to have that G5 spot consistently.

Personally, my “doomsday” scenario is an undefeated BYU and Navy testing the current construct. Even with a harder schedule, I would put my money on Navy going further between the two.
01-09-2021 02:41 AM
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esayem Offline
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Post: #45
RE: [split] BYU/CFP/playoff split discussion
If an Independent plays a certain number of P5 games, should they not be considered P5? For any program other than Notre Dame it would be a tough task, but it makes sense.
01-09-2021 09:14 AM
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ken d Offline
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Post: #46
RE: [split] BYU/CFP/playoff split discussion
(01-08-2021 11:15 AM)solohawks Wrote:  
(01-08-2021 11:01 AM)1845 Bear Wrote:  
(01-08-2021 10:56 AM)solohawks Wrote:  
(01-08-2021 10:50 AM)1845 Bear Wrote:  
(01-08-2021 10:43 AM)The Cutter of Bish Wrote:  I think this hits it pretty close. The question I have is does BYU truly believe that their 12-0 in any given year is as good as or better than Notre Dame’s? That a committee would sniff an undefeated BYU any year?

Because, I suspect the committee sees them no differently, and maybe less than an undefeated AAC or MWC school. Does BYU have any self awareness?

They wouldn't treat the schedule 2020 BYU ended up playing with any favorable view but the schedule they were set to play before COVID probably gets that call.

Utah, Mich St, AZ State, Minnesota, Missouri, and Stanford from the P5. Houston, Boise, NIU, SDSU, and USU from the G5 and one FCS team. Depending on who they'd be up against that SOS would have had a shot if they ran the table.

In 2021 they play Arizona, Utah, ASU, Baylor, Wazzu, UVA, and USC. That's one game shy of a P5 league slate in the ACC or SEC. From there they also play Boise who's usually on that level, USU, USF, Ga Southern, and one FCS team. Depending on if any of the other G5's are good in a given year and who they are up against that schedule would likely get a P5 treatment.

2022?
P5 teams Baylor, Oregon, Arkansas, Stanford already scheduled with two openings still on the schedule. They also have Boise, Liberty, Wyoming, USU, and an FCS team.

By playing 4-7 P5's and Boise plus several notable G5's their SOS will likely be close enough to challenge for a spot if they run the table.

Their SOS will be wildly different than many AAC teams most years so I do think the playoff committee will view them differently.

Exactly!

Being independent allows them to put together a comparable P5 schedule without being in a P5 league.

While G5 league membership would give them better guaranteed access to a NY6 bowl, I believe they are putting themselves in contention with the schedules they are playing if they can go 10-2 or higher.

Contention for a 4 team playoff? That's likely needing to be unbeaten or one close loss.

Playoff...that would require undefeated season with a lot of luck

NY6 should be obtainable though with a top 10 ranking

That could just as easily be said about North Carolina.
01-09-2021 09:29 AM
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1845 Bear Offline
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Post: #47
RE: [split] BYU/CFP/playoff split discussion
(01-08-2021 09:50 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(01-08-2021 11:05 AM)ken d Wrote:  If they could snag the same status as ND, though, they could still get an NY6 berth even if they don't qualify for the CFP. I believe they would be perfectly happy with that.

In their entire history, BYU has never played in a major bowl game. They can't be happy with that. They have been stuck in a rut of Holiday Bowls and Las Vegas Bowls since basically forever.

They did win one Cotton Bowl back during the bowl alliance days.
01-09-2021 09:29 AM
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quo vadis Offline
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Post: #48
RE: [split] BYU/CFP/playoff split discussion
(01-09-2021 09:29 AM)1845 Bear Wrote:  
(01-08-2021 09:50 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(01-08-2021 11:05 AM)ken d Wrote:  If they could snag the same status as ND, though, they could still get an NY6 berth even if they don't qualify for the CFP. I believe they would be perfectly happy with that.

In their entire history, BYU has never played in a major bowl game. They can't be happy with that. They have been stuck in a rut of Holiday Bowls and Las Vegas Bowls since basically forever.

They did win one Cotton Bowl back during the bowl alliance days.

Yes, but IIRC, that was during the 1996 - 2014 period when the Cotton Bowl had (very sadly) dropped from the ranks of major bowls.
01-09-2021 09:33 AM
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ken d Offline
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Post: #49
RE: [split] BYU/CFP/playoff split discussion
So, what if, in the next CFP contract, the parties were all to agree to treat all independents as if they were all in a single quasi-conference? In effect, creating a G6, in which both Notre Dame and BYU were competing for the same NY6 slot, along with the champions of the current non-autonomous conferences. The highest ranked indy would have the same status as the G5 champions.

Such an arrangement would probably cry out for a change in NCAA post season rules, allowing the Cougars and Notre Dame to play each other in a 13th game scheduled for the same week as the CCGs. I believe networks would compete for the rights to that game.

The dilution in CFP payouts per school would be minimal. From ND's perspective, they might have a surer path to the NY6 each year than they do now. From BYU's perspective, they would now have at least some path to the NY6. And if, somehow, an Army or Liberty could put together a magical season and outrank both ND and BYU, they too get a path to the NY6.

If, at some time in the future, the playoff were expanded to 8 teams, you could grant autobids to the six highest ranked conference (including the quasi-conference) champions (in which the indy conference "champion" is deemed to be its highest ranked school).

Who loses in such an arrangement? And should we care if they lost?
01-09-2021 09:45 AM
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quo vadis Offline
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Post: #50
RE: [split] BYU/CFP/playoff split discussion
(01-09-2021 09:45 AM)ken d Wrote:  So, what if, in the next CFP contract, the parties were all to agree to treat all independents as if they were all in a single quasi-conference? In effect, creating a G6, in which both Notre Dame and BYU were competing for the same NY6 slot, along with the champions of the current non-autonomous conferences. The highest ranked indy would have the same status as the G5 champions.

Such an arrangement would probably cry out for a change in NCAA post season rules, allowing the Cougars and Notre Dame to play each other in a 13th game scheduled for the same week as the CCGs. I believe networks would compete for the rights to that game.

The dilution in CFP payouts per school would be minimal. From ND's perspective, they might have a surer path to the NY6 each year than they do now. From BYU's perspective, they would now have at least some path to the NY6. And if, somehow, an Army or Liberty could put together a magical season and outrank both ND and BYU, they too get a path to the NY6.

If, at some time in the future, the playoff were expanded to 8 teams, you could grant autobids to the six highest ranked conference (including the quasi-conference) champions (in which the indy conference "champion" is deemed to be its highest ranked school).

Who loses in such an arrangement? And should we care if they lost?

If we *had* to have a 8-game playoff with autobids (which I strongly oppose, for anyone), then I think this kind of treatment of the independents would be the fairest solution.

But, I would say that to be eligible for the G5 spot, an Indy would have to agree to schedule all the other Indies, so as to facilitate comparison. E.g., Notre Dame would have to schedule BYU, UConn, Army, UMass, and Liberty. After that, they can schedule whoever they want "ooc". Note that this would purely be scheduling, the Indies would not be required to have any kind of TV revenue or collective governance arrangements with each other, IOWs it would not be a real conference.

An Indy would also be free to not do so, but then would not be eligible for the G5/G6 slot, only the at-large bids like everyone else.

The loser would be the AAC, which stands by far the most to gain from 5/1/2 without such an accomodation, as they would be likely to get the G5 autobid probably 4 out of 5 years. Notre Dame and BYU would be formidable competitors for that. But I don't think that is a "national" concern.

If one is concerned about one entity monopolizing that spot, had such a scheme been in place the past seven years, Notre Dame would have gotten the G5/G6 spot 4 times, the AAC 1 time, the MAC 1 time and the MW 1 time. If a "regular" 5/1/2 had been in place the past seven years, the AAC would have gotten it 5 times. the MAC 1 time and the MW 1 time. Of course, the future isn't necessarily like the past.
(This post was last modified: 01-09-2021 10:06 AM by quo vadis.)
01-09-2021 09:54 AM
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ken d Offline
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Post: #51
RE: [split] BYU/CFP/playoff split discussion
(01-09-2021 09:54 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(01-09-2021 09:45 AM)ken d Wrote:  So, what if, in the next CFP contract, the parties were all to agree to treat all independents as if they were all in a single quasi-conference? In effect, creating a G6, in which both Notre Dame and BYU were competing for the same NY6 slot, along with the champions of the current non-autonomous conferences. The highest ranked indy would have the same status as the G5 champions.

Such an arrangement would probably cry out for a change in NCAA post season rules, allowing the Cougars and Notre Dame to play each other in a 13th game scheduled for the same week as the CCGs. I believe networks would compete for the rights to that game.

The dilution in CFP payouts per school would be minimal. From ND's perspective, they might have a surer path to the NY6 each year than they do now. From BYU's perspective, they would now have at least some path to the NY6. And if, somehow, an Army or Liberty could put together a magical season and outrank both ND and BYU, they too get a path to the NY6.

If, at some time in the future, the playoff were expanded to 8 teams, you could grant autobids to the six highest ranked conference (including the quasi-conference) champions (in which the indy conference "champion" is deemed to be its highest ranked school).

Who loses in such an arrangement? And should we care if they lost?

If we *had* to have a 8-game playoff with autobids (which I strongly oppose, for anyone), then I think this kind of treatment of the independents would be the fairest solution.

But, I would say that to be eligible for the G5 spot, an Indy would have to agree to schedule all the other Indies, so as to facilitate comparison. E.g., Notre Dame would have to schedule BYU, UConn, Army, UMass, and Liberty. After that, they can schedule whoever they want "ooc". Note that this would purely be scheduling, the Indies would not be required to have any kind of TV revenue or collective governance arrangements with each other, IOWs it would not be a real conference.

An Indy would also be free to not do so, but then would not be eligible for the G5/G6 slot, only the at-large bids like everyone else.

The loser would be the AAC, which stands by far the most to gain from 5/1/2 without such an accomodation, as they would be likely to get the G5 autobid probably 4 out of 5 years. Notre Dame and BYU would be formidable competitors for that. But I don't think that is a "national" concern.

If one is concerned about one entity monopolizing that spot, had such a scheme been in place the past seven years, Notre Dame would have gotten the G5/G6 spot 4 times, the AAC 1 time, the MAC 1 time and the MW 1 time. If a "regular" 5/1/2 had been in place the past seven years, the AAC would have gotten it 5 times. the MAC 1 time and the MW 1 time. Of course, the future isn't necessarily like the past.

Using the final CFP rankings from 2014-2019 (I'm throwing out 2020 as anomalous due to COVID), this is what we would have seen had this plan been in effect.

Only once would a P5 champion have been left out of the playoff (#9 Washington in 2018). In that year, Notre Dame was ranked #3 and UCF #8 knocking them out.

Only one would the lowest ranked auto-qualifier have been ranked lower than #15 (#20 Boise State in 2014).

The rankings of the first team left out of the playoffs each year would be:

2014 #8 Michigan State
2015 #9 Florida State
2016 #8 Wisconsin
2017 #7 Auburn
2018 #9 Washington (Conf champion)
2019 #8 Wisconsin

I could live with that. I could also live with excluding conference champions that rank lower than #15 (because that Boise State team could just as easily have been ranked #25 or even worse).

For the record, the AAC champ would have qualified twice in six years, not once (#12 UCF in 2017 and #8 UCF in 2018).

EDIT: I should also point out that twice the highest ranked champion among the current G5 conferences would not have qualified for an 8 team playoff: #18 Houston in 2015 and #17 Memphis in 2019. I didn't go beyond structuring an 8 team playoff. Others could decide whether the highest rank G5 champion should be guaranteed a New Years bowl if they didn't qualify for the playoff.
(This post was last modified: 01-09-2021 10:50 AM by ken d.)
01-09-2021 10:34 AM
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Crayton Offline
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Post: #52
RE: [split] BYU/CFP/playoff split discussion
Neat idea about Indies being a G6. Requiring them to schedule all other indies may be too onerous, especially because the roster of Independent teams can be rather fluid and schedules are made so far in advance. Maybe a 3 or 4 game requirement, with those unable or unwilling to schedule that many simply being eligible for the at large spot. Such a change may induce Texas independence. I still think the top G5 will get a NY6 (or equivalent) spot.
01-09-2021 11:27 AM
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Post: #53
RE: [split] BYU/CFP/playoff split discussion
Question for the board: are independents considered a higher caste than the G5. In other words, is UConn and UMass “better” than Cincinnati and UCF. Just curious as it seems that is the tone on this board and on other social media outlets.
01-09-2021 11:43 AM
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quo vadis Offline
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Post: #54
RE: [split] BYU/CFP/playoff split discussion
(01-09-2021 10:34 AM)ken d Wrote:  For the record, the AAC champ would have qualified twice in six years, not once (#12 UCF in 2017 and #8 UCF in 2018).

Aha, I see you mentioned a "top 6 conference champs" criteria where I was assuming all P5 champs get in, 5/1/2, which would have booted UCF out in favor of Washington.

But I agree, your top-6 is better.
01-09-2021 12:10 PM
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quo vadis Offline
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RE: [split] BYU/CFP/playoff split discussion
(01-09-2021 11:43 AM)CliftonAve Wrote:  Question for the board: are independents considered a higher caste than the G5. In other words, is UConn and UMass “better” than Cincinnati and UCF. Just curious as it seems that is the tone on this board and on other social media outlets.

Not at all. It would say the sentiment about Indies is school by school - Notre Dame is regarded as a P5 blue-blood, but all other Indies, BYU included, are regarded as G5. In fact I would say that UConn and UMass and New Mexico State (are they Indy?) are regarded as below G5, the very lowest schools on the FBS totem pole. So ...

Notre Dame ..... elite P5

BYU/Army/Liberty ....... G5

Other Indies .... below G5
(This post was last modified: 01-09-2021 12:12 PM by quo vadis.)
01-09-2021 12:12 PM
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Post: #56
RE: [split] BYU/CFP/playoff split discussion
(01-09-2021 11:43 AM)CliftonAve Wrote:  Question for the board: are independents considered a higher caste than the G5. In other words, is UConn and UMass “better” than Cincinnati and UCF. Just curious as it seems that is the tone on this board and on other social media outlets.

I view independence as a “make your own luck” status. It’s the Wild West and, for many, it becomes football purgatory. I would strongly prefer more independent schools. That would help define how independence and schools are actually viewed. It would also help schools reignite rivalries.

Here’s my breakdown of how I view conferences and independent schools to each other:

I. SEC, B1G, Notre Dame
II. ACC, PAC
III. XII
VI. AAC, BYU, Army
V. MWC
VI. CUSA, SBC, Connecticut, Massachusetts
VII. MAC, Liberty, New Mexico St
01-09-2021 12:13 PM
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ken d Offline
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Post: #57
RE: [split] BYU/CFP/playoff split discussion
(01-09-2021 11:43 AM)CliftonAve Wrote:  Question for the board: are independents considered a higher caste than the G5. In other words, is UConn and UMass “better” than Cincinnati and UCF. Just curious as it seems that is the tone on this board and on other social media outlets.

Other than Notre Dame and BYU, I think the opposite is true. 2020 was an anomaly, with Liberty and Army also having outstanding years. But I think most college football fans view UConn, UMass and New Mexico State as just hanging onto FBS status by a thread.

The disparity between the top indies and the bottom feeders is such that I wouldn't want to impose a mutual scheduling requirement as a condition for being treated as a quasi-conference by the CFP. Nobody wants to see a Notre Dame slaughter of UMass, and they shouldn't have to IMO.
(This post was last modified: 01-09-2021 12:17 PM by ken d.)
01-09-2021 12:16 PM
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Post: #58
RE: [split] BYU/CFP/playoff split discussion
(01-09-2021 12:13 PM)BePcr07 Wrote:  
(01-09-2021 11:43 AM)CliftonAve Wrote:  Question for the board: are independents considered a higher caste than the G5. In other words, is UConn and UMass “better” than Cincinnati and UCF. Just curious as it seems that is the tone on this board and on other social media outlets.

I view independence as a “make your own luck” status. It’s the Wild West and, for many, it becomes football purgatory. I would strongly prefer more independent schools. That would help define how independence and schools are actually viewed. It would also help schools reignite rivalries.

Here’s my breakdown of how I view conferences and independent schools to each other:

I. SEC, B1G, Notre Dame
II. ACC, PAC
III. XII
VI. AAC, BYU, Army
V. MWC
VI. CUSA, SBC, Connecticut, Massachusetts
VII. MAC, Liberty, New Mexico St

Everyone is going to have their own take on this, but...

a) I'd at least put the PAC on the same level as the Big 12, if not lower. Could just be bias against their time zone, but the PAC hasn't been very competitive and barely ever gets a team into the CFP.

b) UMass probably belongs in tier VII. Where UConn ends up between VI and VII will be determined over hte next year or two, but fine with giving them the benefit of hte doubt.

c) By way of their close relationship with the ACC, ND probably belongs on their tier.

d) Last one, Army is probably on the MWC tier. I don't think their caste is much different than Air Force.
(This post was last modified: 01-09-2021 12:50 PM by CoastalJuan.)
01-09-2021 12:50 PM
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Post: #59
RE: [split] BYU/CFP/playoff split discussion
Given Cincinnati and Memphis years ago fielded independent football programs, I tend to look at this issue very broadly.

On one hand, and not counting Notre Dame, there is "special-ness" to the current indy programs, both individually and collectively — in part because there are so few. In fact, I can see how some fans might view the handful of of FBS independents, in some ways, as "superior" to those programs in the G5.

But overall, I would think most fans view the G5, and particularly the AAC and the Mountain West, as more stable and influential than the indies. BYU and Army are different animals, but I doubt they are viewed as "better overall" than all G5 programs (though clearly "better in some respects" than many).

Liberty might be able to make it long-term as an independent because it has money and, like BYU, a "national following" (with evangelical Christians).

You have to wonder about New Mexico State, UMass and UConn. At some point, and with future realignment, I could envision a scenario in which each of those is a member of an all-sports conference. We know each of the three would prefer that to their current situations.
(This post was last modified: 01-09-2021 10:22 PM by bill dazzle.)
01-09-2021 01:04 PM
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esayem Offline
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Post: #60
RE: [split] BYU/CFP/playoff split discussion
(01-09-2021 11:43 AM)CliftonAve Wrote:  Question for the board: are independents considered a higher caste than the G5. In other words, is UConn and UMass “better” than Cincinnati and UCF. Just curious as it seems that is the tone on this board and on other social media outlets.

No, but they’re not tied to a conference so I think they are viewed more fluidly by the general public.
01-09-2021 04:19 PM
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