ken d
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RE: [split] BYU/CFP/playoff split discussion
(01-09-2021 09:54 AM)quo vadis Wrote: (01-09-2021 09:45 AM)ken d Wrote: So, what if, in the next CFP contract, the parties were all to agree to treat all independents as if they were all in a single quasi-conference? In effect, creating a G6, in which both Notre Dame and BYU were competing for the same NY6 slot, along with the champions of the current non-autonomous conferences. The highest ranked indy would have the same status as the G5 champions.
Such an arrangement would probably cry out for a change in NCAA post season rules, allowing the Cougars and Notre Dame to play each other in a 13th game scheduled for the same week as the CCGs. I believe networks would compete for the rights to that game.
The dilution in CFP payouts per school would be minimal. From ND's perspective, they might have a surer path to the NY6 each year than they do now. From BYU's perspective, they would now have at least some path to the NY6. And if, somehow, an Army or Liberty could put together a magical season and outrank both ND and BYU, they too get a path to the NY6.
If, at some time in the future, the playoff were expanded to 8 teams, you could grant autobids to the six highest ranked conference (including the quasi-conference) champions (in which the indy conference "champion" is deemed to be its highest ranked school).
Who loses in such an arrangement? And should we care if they lost?
If we *had* to have a 8-game playoff with autobids (which I strongly oppose, for anyone), then I think this kind of treatment of the independents would be the fairest solution.
But, I would say that to be eligible for the G5 spot, an Indy would have to agree to schedule all the other Indies, so as to facilitate comparison. E.g., Notre Dame would have to schedule BYU, UConn, Army, UMass, and Liberty. After that, they can schedule whoever they want "ooc". Note that this would purely be scheduling, the Indies would not be required to have any kind of TV revenue or collective governance arrangements with each other, IOWs it would not be a real conference.
An Indy would also be free to not do so, but then would not be eligible for the G5/G6 slot, only the at-large bids like everyone else.
The loser would be the AAC, which stands by far the most to gain from 5/1/2 without such an accomodation, as they would be likely to get the G5 autobid probably 4 out of 5 years. Notre Dame and BYU would be formidable competitors for that. But I don't think that is a "national" concern.
If one is concerned about one entity monopolizing that spot, had such a scheme been in place the past seven years, Notre Dame would have gotten the G5/G6 spot 4 times, the AAC 1 time, the MAC 1 time and the MW 1 time. If a "regular" 5/1/2 had been in place the past seven years, the AAC would have gotten it 5 times. the MAC 1 time and the MW 1 time. Of course, the future isn't necessarily like the past.
Using the final CFP rankings from 2014-2019 (I'm throwing out 2020 as anomalous due to COVID), this is what we would have seen had this plan been in effect.
Only once would a P5 champion have been left out of the playoff (#9 Washington in 2018). In that year, Notre Dame was ranked #3 and UCF #8 knocking them out.
Only one would the lowest ranked auto-qualifier have been ranked lower than #15 (#20 Boise State in 2014).
The rankings of the first team left out of the playoffs each year would be:
2014 #8 Michigan State
2015 #9 Florida State
2016 #8 Wisconsin
2017 #7 Auburn
2018 #9 Washington (Conf champion)
2019 #8 Wisconsin
I could live with that. I could also live with excluding conference champions that rank lower than #15 (because that Boise State team could just as easily have been ranked #25 or even worse).
For the record, the AAC champ would have qualified twice in six years, not once (#12 UCF in 2017 and #8 UCF in 2018).
EDIT: I should also point out that twice the highest ranked champion among the current G5 conferences would not have qualified for an 8 team playoff: #18 Houston in 2015 and #17 Memphis in 2019. I didn't go beyond structuring an 8 team playoff. Others could decide whether the highest rank G5 champion should be guaranteed a New Years bowl if they didn't qualify for the playoff.
(This post was last modified: 01-09-2021 10:50 AM by ken d.)
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