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[split] BYU/CFP/playoff split discussion
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esayem Offline
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Post: #1
[split] BYU/CFP/playoff split discussion
(01-07-2021 11:45 AM)tigerjamesc Wrote:  AAC goal of P6 status is closer to being achieved with a Boise, BYU, and either SDSU or Army/Gonzaga combo. Boise alone doesn’t move the needle all that much. Boise/BYU +1 does. Fold Army/Navy into the conference package. All BYU and Boise games into the package in addition to Army/Navy would likely trigger a media rights renegotiation. I think it doubles the value which still would be less than half the P5, but light years ahead of the G4

I believe BYU's goal is to make the playoffs. The best way to do that is by filling up their schedule with P5 programs, something they can't do in the AAC.
01-07-2021 12:15 PM
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Merrick Offline
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Post: #2
RE: Boise St looking to move on from MWC
(01-07-2021 12:15 PM)esayem Wrote:  
(01-07-2021 11:45 AM)tigerjamesc Wrote:  AAC goal of P6 status is closer to being achieved with a Boise, BYU, and either SDSU or Army/Gonzaga combo. Boise alone doesn’t move the needle all that much. Boise/BYU +1 does. Fold Army/Navy into the conference package. All BYU and Boise games into the package in addition to Army/Navy would likely trigger a media rights renegotiation. I think it doubles the value which still would be less than half the P5, but light years ahead of the G4

I believe BYU's goal is to make the playoffs. The best way to do that is by filling up their schedule with P5 programs, something they can't do in the AAC.

Wrong.

They cannot do that without being a Conference Champion!

04-cheers
01-07-2021 12:32 PM
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CoastalJuan Offline
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Post: #3
RE: Boise St looking to move on from MWC
(01-07-2021 12:15 PM)esayem Wrote:  
(01-07-2021 11:45 AM)tigerjamesc Wrote:  AAC goal of P6 status is closer to being achieved with a Boise, BYU, and either SDSU or Army/Gonzaga combo. Boise alone doesn’t move the needle all that much. Boise/BYU +1 does. Fold Army/Navy into the conference package. All BYU and Boise games into the package in addition to Army/Navy would likely trigger a media rights renegotiation. I think it doubles the value which still would be less than half the P5, but light years ahead of the G4

I believe BYU's goal is to make the playoffs. The best way to do that is by filling up their schedule with P5 programs, something they can't do in the AAC.

The long game on that idea is arguable. BYU tends to get itself into situations where, once they lose a couple of games, they all of a sudden don't have anything to play for. Not a knock on their teams. Losing 2+ games happens to the vast majority of teams the vast majority of years. Teams in conferences can still play to win their division, then potentially play for a conference title. Those last two steps are out the door for BYU most years. They are often locked into the Potato Bowl by week 5.

Continuing to have something/anything to play for creates more interest and intrigue in the years (most years) that you're not in the running for the CFP.

Fast forward a few years into an 8-team playoff situation. Being in a conference might give them a better shot to get into the top 8, not only because they can add a CCG to their resume, but because playing meaningful games in the back half of all the other years helped their recruiting.

Just my $.02

Also, keep in mind that BYU plays an average of 4.5 OOC P5 games every year, and they usually take place around the normal OOC game period (September). So it's doubtful that they'd lose much in the way of those games.
(This post was last modified: 01-07-2021 01:40 PM by CoastalJuan.)
01-07-2021 01:38 PM
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Attackcoog Offline
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Post: #4
RE: Boise St looking to move on from MWC
(01-07-2021 01:38 PM)CoastalJuan Wrote:  
(01-07-2021 12:15 PM)esayem Wrote:  
(01-07-2021 11:45 AM)tigerjamesc Wrote:  AAC goal of P6 status is closer to being achieved with a Boise, BYU, and either SDSU or Army/Gonzaga combo. Boise alone doesn’t move the needle all that much. Boise/BYU +1 does. Fold Army/Navy into the conference package. All BYU and Boise games into the package in addition to Army/Navy would likely trigger a media rights renegotiation. I think it doubles the value which still would be less than half the P5, but light years ahead of the G4

I believe BYU's goal is to make the playoffs. The best way to do that is by filling up their schedule with P5 programs, something they can't do in the AAC.

The long game on that idea is arguable. BYU tends to get itself into situations where, once they lose a couple of games, they all of a sudden don't have anything to play for. Not a knock on their teams. Losing 2+ games happens to the vast majority of teams the vast majority of years. Teams in conferences can still play to win their division, then potentially play for a conference title. Those last two steps are out the door for BYU most years. They are often locked into the Potato Bowl by week 5.

Continuing to have something/anything to play for creates more interest and intrigue in the years (most years) that you're not in the running for the CFP.

Fast forward a few years into an 8-team playoff situation. Being in a conference might give them a better shot to get into the top 8, not only because they can add a CCG to their resume, but because playing meaningful games in the back half of all the other years helped their recruiting.

Just my $.02

Also, keep in mind that BYU plays an average of 4.5 OOC P5 games every year, and they usually take place around the normal OOC game period (September). So it's doubtful that they'd lose much in the way of those games.

I a 5-1-2 comes to pass, where the top G5 champ as a guaranteed slot in the playoff--I think BYU would have to look seriously at joining a conference.
01-07-2021 02:03 PM
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BePcr07 Offline
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Post: #5
RE: Boise St looking to move on from MWC
(01-07-2021 02:03 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  
(01-07-2021 01:38 PM)CoastalJuan Wrote:  
(01-07-2021 12:15 PM)esayem Wrote:  
(01-07-2021 11:45 AM)tigerjamesc Wrote:  AAC goal of P6 status is closer to being achieved with a Boise, BYU, and either SDSU or Army/Gonzaga combo. Boise alone doesn’t move the needle all that much. Boise/BYU +1 does. Fold Army/Navy into the conference package. All BYU and Boise games into the package in addition to Army/Navy would likely trigger a media rights renegotiation. I think it doubles the value which still would be less than half the P5, but light years ahead of the G4

I believe BYU's goal is to make the playoffs. The best way to do that is by filling up their schedule with P5 programs, something they can't do in the AAC.

The long game on that idea is arguable. BYU tends to get itself into situations where, once they lose a couple of games, they all of a sudden don't have anything to play for. Not a knock on their teams. Losing 2+ games happens to the vast majority of teams the vast majority of years. Teams in conferences can still play to win their division, then potentially play for a conference title. Those last two steps are out the door for BYU most years. They are often locked into the Potato Bowl by week 5.

Continuing to have something/anything to play for creates more interest and intrigue in the years (most years) that you're not in the running for the CFP.

Fast forward a few years into an 8-team playoff situation. Being in a conference might give them a better shot to get into the top 8, not only because they can add a CCG to their resume, but because playing meaningful games in the back half of all the other years helped their recruiting.

Just my $.02

Also, keep in mind that BYU plays an average of 4.5 OOC P5 games every year, and they usually take place around the normal OOC game period (September). So it's doubtful that they'd lose much in the way of those games.

I a 5-1-2 comes to pass, where the top G5 champ as a guaranteed slot in the playoff--I think BYU would have to look seriously at joining a conference.

Agreed. Join the AAC for football-only. AAC leverages the deal by getting some basketball games every year. BYU to the West, Tulane or Memphis to the East. Everyone’s happy.
01-07-2021 02:24 PM
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CoastalJuan Offline
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RE: Boise St looking to move on from MWC
(01-07-2021 02:24 PM)BePcr07 Wrote:  
(01-07-2021 02:03 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  
(01-07-2021 01:38 PM)CoastalJuan Wrote:  
(01-07-2021 12:15 PM)esayem Wrote:  
(01-07-2021 11:45 AM)tigerjamesc Wrote:  AAC goal of P6 status is closer to being achieved with a Boise, BYU, and either SDSU or Army/Gonzaga combo. Boise alone doesn’t move the needle all that much. Boise/BYU +1 does. Fold Army/Navy into the conference package. All BYU and Boise games into the package in addition to Army/Navy would likely trigger a media rights renegotiation. I think it doubles the value which still would be less than half the P5, but light years ahead of the G4

I believe BYU's goal is to make the playoffs. The best way to do that is by filling up their schedule with P5 programs, something they can't do in the AAC.

The long game on that idea is arguable. BYU tends to get itself into situations where, once they lose a couple of games, they all of a sudden don't have anything to play for. Not a knock on their teams. Losing 2+ games happens to the vast majority of teams the vast majority of years. Teams in conferences can still play to win their division, then potentially play for a conference title. Those last two steps are out the door for BYU most years. They are often locked into the Potato Bowl by week 5.

Continuing to have something/anything to play for creates more interest and intrigue in the years (most years) that you're not in the running for the CFP.

Fast forward a few years into an 8-team playoff situation. Being in a conference might give them a better shot to get into the top 8, not only because they can add a CCG to their resume, but because playing meaningful games in the back half of all the other years helped their recruiting.

Just my $.02

Also, keep in mind that BYU plays an average of 4.5 OOC P5 games every year, and they usually take place around the normal OOC game period (September). So it's doubtful that they'd lose much in the way of those games.

I a 5-1-2 comes to pass, where the top G5 champ as a guaranteed slot in the playoff--I think BYU would have to look seriously at joining a conference.

Agreed. Join the AAC for football-only. AAC leverages the deal by getting some basketball games every year. BYU to the West, Tulane or Memphis to the East. Everyone’s happy.

Except BYU maybe

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01-07-2021 02:52 PM
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esayem Offline
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RE: Boise St looking to move on from MWC
(01-07-2021 12:32 PM)Merrick Wrote:  
(01-07-2021 12:15 PM)esayem Wrote:  
(01-07-2021 11:45 AM)tigerjamesc Wrote:  AAC goal of P6 status is closer to being achieved with a Boise, BYU, and either SDSU or Army/Gonzaga combo. Boise alone doesn’t move the needle all that much. Boise/BYU +1 does. Fold Army/Navy into the conference package. All BYU and Boise games into the package in addition to Army/Navy would likely trigger a media rights renegotiation. I think it doubles the value which still would be less than half the P5, but light years ahead of the G4

I believe BYU's goal is to make the playoffs. The best way to do that is by filling up their schedule with P5 programs, something they can't do in the AAC.

Wrong.

They cannot do that without being a Conference Champion!

04-cheers

Notre Dame made the playoffs without being in a conference. Other teams made the playoffs without winning their conference (actually including ND this season).
(This post was last modified: 01-07-2021 03:14 PM by esayem.)
01-07-2021 03:14 PM
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esayem Offline
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RE: Boise St looking to move on from MWC
(01-07-2021 01:38 PM)CoastalJuan Wrote:  
(01-07-2021 12:15 PM)esayem Wrote:  
(01-07-2021 11:45 AM)tigerjamesc Wrote:  AAC goal of P6 status is closer to being achieved with a Boise, BYU, and either SDSU or Army/Gonzaga combo. Boise alone doesn’t move the needle all that much. Boise/BYU +1 does. Fold Army/Navy into the conference package. All BYU and Boise games into the package in addition to Army/Navy would likely trigger a media rights renegotiation. I think it doubles the value which still would be less than half the P5, but light years ahead of the G4

I believe BYU's goal is to make the playoffs. The best way to do that is by filling up their schedule with P5 programs, something they can't do in the AAC.

The long game on that idea is arguable. BYU tends to get itself into situations where, once they lose a couple of games, they all of a sudden don't have anything to play for. Not a knock on their teams. Losing 2+ games happens to the vast majority of teams the vast majority of years. Teams in conferences can still play to win their division, then potentially play for a conference title. Those last two steps are out the door for BYU most years. They are often locked into the Potato Bowl by week 5.

Continuing to have something/anything to play for creates more interest and intrigue in the years (most years) that you're not in the running for the CFP.

Fast forward a few years into an 8-team playoff situation. Being in a conference might give them a better shot to get into the top 8, not only because they can add a CCG to their resume, but because playing meaningful games in the back half of all the other years helped their recruiting.

Just my $.02

Also, keep in mind that BYU plays an average of 4.5 OOC P5 games every year, and they usually take place around the normal OOC game period (September). So it's doubtful that they'd lose much in the way of those games.

I don’t think there is any speculation to what BYU wants. They want to be the Mormon version of Notre Dame. They could be in any G5 conference they want, yet they chose independence.
01-07-2021 03:17 PM
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YNot Offline
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Post: #9
RE: Boise St looking to move on from MWC
(01-07-2021 01:38 PM)CoastalJuan Wrote:  Also, keep in mind that BYU plays an average of 4.5 OOC P5 games every year, and they usually take place around the normal OOC game period (September). So it's doubtful that they'd lose much in the way of those games.

Here's the rub. BYU has 7 P5 opponents on the 2021 schedule - 3 in Provo and Arizona in the Raider's Vegas stadium; 4 after October 15. We originally had 6 on the 2020 schedule, with 2 in October/November.

These were the types of schedules that motivated the independence move.

The good news is that BYU wouldn't move to the AAC for the 2021 season regardless. Too soon.

I think the expanded AAC schedules (with Boise and SDSU) and 3 or 4 P5 opponents would give BYU a fantastic, challenging schedule - conference rivlaries, something to play for, a bowl hierarchy, and road trips sprinkled all over the country for our fan base.
01-07-2021 07:00 PM
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Wedge Offline
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Post: #10
RE: Boise St looking to move on from MWC
(01-07-2021 02:03 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  
(01-07-2021 01:38 PM)CoastalJuan Wrote:  
(01-07-2021 12:15 PM)esayem Wrote:  
(01-07-2021 11:45 AM)tigerjamesc Wrote:  AAC goal of P6 status is closer to being achieved with a Boise, BYU, and either SDSU or Army/Gonzaga combo. Boise alone doesn’t move the needle all that much. Boise/BYU +1 does. Fold Army/Navy into the conference package. All BYU and Boise games into the package in addition to Army/Navy would likely trigger a media rights renegotiation. I think it doubles the value which still would be less than half the P5, but light years ahead of the G4

I believe BYU's goal is to make the playoffs. The best way to do that is by filling up their schedule with P5 programs, something they can't do in the AAC.

The long game on that idea is arguable. BYU tends to get itself into situations where, once they lose a couple of games, they all of a sudden don't have anything to play for. Not a knock on their teams. Losing 2+ games happens to the vast majority of teams the vast majority of years. Teams in conferences can still play to win their division, then potentially play for a conference title. Those last two steps are out the door for BYU most years. They are often locked into the Potato Bowl by week 5.

Continuing to have something/anything to play for creates more interest and intrigue in the years (most years) that you're not in the running for the CFP.

Fast forward a few years into an 8-team playoff situation. Being in a conference might give them a better shot to get into the top 8, not only because they can add a CCG to their resume, but because playing meaningful games in the back half of all the other years helped their recruiting.

Just my $.02

Also, keep in mind that BYU plays an average of 4.5 OOC P5 games every year, and they usually take place around the normal OOC game period (September). So it's doubtful that they'd lose much in the way of those games.

I a 5-1-2 comes to pass, where the top G5 champ as a guaranteed slot in the playoff--I think BYU would have to look seriously at joining a conference.

Nah, BYU won't be concerned with finding an easier path to the playoff unless Utah someday makes the playoff. 05-stirthepot
01-07-2021 07:23 PM
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Attackcoog Offline
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Post: #11
RE: Boise St looking to move on from MWC
(01-07-2021 07:23 PM)Wedge Wrote:  
(01-07-2021 02:03 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  
(01-07-2021 01:38 PM)CoastalJuan Wrote:  
(01-07-2021 12:15 PM)esayem Wrote:  
(01-07-2021 11:45 AM)tigerjamesc Wrote:  AAC goal of P6 status is closer to being achieved with a Boise, BYU, and either SDSU or Army/Gonzaga combo. Boise alone doesn’t move the needle all that much. Boise/BYU +1 does. Fold Army/Navy into the conference package. All BYU and Boise games into the package in addition to Army/Navy would likely trigger a media rights renegotiation. I think it doubles the value which still would be less than half the P5, but light years ahead of the G4

I believe BYU's goal is to make the playoffs. The best way to do that is by filling up their schedule with P5 programs, something they can't do in the AAC.

The long game on that idea is arguable. BYU tends to get itself into situations where, once they lose a couple of games, they all of a sudden don't have anything to play for. Not a knock on their teams. Losing 2+ games happens to the vast majority of teams the vast majority of years. Teams in conferences can still play to win their division, then potentially play for a conference title. Those last two steps are out the door for BYU most years. They are often locked into the Potato Bowl by week 5.

Continuing to have something/anything to play for creates more interest and intrigue in the years (most years) that you're not in the running for the CFP.

Fast forward a few years into an 8-team playoff situation. Being in a conference might give them a better shot to get into the top 8, not only because they can add a CCG to their resume, but because playing meaningful games in the back half of all the other years helped their recruiting.

Just my $.02

Also, keep in mind that BYU plays an average of 4.5 OOC P5 games every year, and they usually take place around the normal OOC game period (September). So it's doubtful that they'd lose much in the way of those games.

I a 5-1-2 comes to pass, where the top G5 champ as a guaranteed slot in the playoff--I think BYU would have to look seriously at joining a conference.

Nah, BYU won't be concerned with finding an easier path to the playoff unless Utah someday makes the playoff. 05-stirthepot

What if it means BYU gets into the playoff before Utah.
01-07-2021 08:00 PM
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MidknightWhiskey Offline
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Post: #12
RE: Boise St looking to move on from MWC
(01-07-2021 03:14 PM)esayem Wrote:  
(01-07-2021 12:32 PM)Merrick Wrote:  
(01-07-2021 12:15 PM)esayem Wrote:  
(01-07-2021 11:45 AM)tigerjamesc Wrote:  AAC goal of P6 status is closer to being achieved with a Boise, BYU, and either SDSU or Army/Gonzaga combo. Boise alone doesn’t move the needle all that much. Boise/BYU +1 does. Fold Army/Navy into the conference package. All BYU and Boise games into the package in addition to Army/Navy would likely trigger a media rights renegotiation. I think it doubles the value which still would be less than half the P5, but light years ahead of the G4

I believe BYU's goal is to make the playoffs. The best way to do that is by filling up their schedule with P5 programs, something they can't do in the AAC.

Wrong.

They cannot do that without being a Conference Champion!

04-cheers

Notre Dame made the playoffs without being in a conference. Other teams made the playoffs without winning their conference (actually including ND this season).

Notre Dame is specifically named along with the autonomous conferences in the CFP contract, BYU is not. So according to that contract BYU is in the same grouping as Uconn, Umass, Liberty, New Mexico State & Army. The 5 non autonomous conferences are named for the NY6 access bowl, those indy programs are not. We'll see how everything shakes up when the new contract is negotiated but that's how things stand right now. BYU has a lower ceiling than the "G5" because they at least have a NY6 access bowl.
01-07-2021 08:25 PM
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Wedge Offline
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Post: #13
RE: Boise St looking to move on from MWC
(01-07-2021 09:05 PM)UTEPDallas Wrote:  BYU won’t join a G5 conference for one reason only: the University of Utah.

BYU won’t have on the schedule the likes of Temple, Tulsa, East Carolina, SMU, the Florida twins, etc while Utah plays a Pac-12 schedule. Their ego won’t allow it. The best thing they can do is play a semi national schedule with P5, MWC schools and some independents. Their schedule in 2020 (before the COVID-19 cancellations) looked great.

And please save the “but the Pac-12 sucks”. That’s not the point. The point is the Pac-12 is part of the cartel. BYU and whatever G5 conference posters on this board want BYU to be part of is outside looking in. They won’t admit Utah has already passed them by so independence is the only option until a P5 comes calling.

I think we can illustrate the BYU vs. Utah situation by making a state of Utah analogy to the state of Indiana.

BYU as a football independent can think of themselves as the Notre Dame of the west while the Utes, in this analogy, are the Indiana Hoosiers. That's an analogy that satisfies BYU.

If BYU was in a G5 conference, in their eyes, it would be more like they're Ball State while the Utes are the Hoosiers. That's the kind of comparison they are avoiding by being a football indy.
(This post was last modified: 01-07-2021 09:27 PM by Wedge.)
01-07-2021 09:25 PM
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ken d Offline
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Post: #14
RE: Boise St looking to move on from MWC
(01-07-2021 08:25 PM)MidknightWhiskey Wrote:  
(01-07-2021 03:14 PM)esayem Wrote:  
(01-07-2021 12:32 PM)Merrick Wrote:  
(01-07-2021 12:15 PM)esayem Wrote:  
(01-07-2021 11:45 AM)tigerjamesc Wrote:  AAC goal of P6 status is closer to being achieved with a Boise, BYU, and either SDSU or Army/Gonzaga combo. Boise alone doesn’t move the needle all that much. Boise/BYU +1 does. Fold Army/Navy into the conference package. All BYU and Boise games into the package in addition to Army/Navy would likely trigger a media rights renegotiation. I think it doubles the value which still would be less than half the P5, but light years ahead of the G4

I believe BYU's goal is to make the playoffs. The best way to do that is by filling up their schedule with P5 programs, something they can't do in the AAC.

Wrong.

They cannot do that without being a Conference Champion!

04-cheers

Notre Dame made the playoffs without being in a conference. Other teams made the playoffs without winning their conference (actually including ND this season).

Notre Dame is specifically named along with the autonomous conferences in the CFP contract, BYU is not. So according to that contract BYU is in the same grouping as Uconn, Umass, Liberty, New Mexico State & Army. The 5 non autonomous conferences are named for the NY6 access bowl, those indy programs are not. We'll see how everything shakes up when the new contract is negotiated but that's how things stand right now. BYU has a lower ceiling than the "G5" because they at least have a NY6 access bowl.

Notre Dame's access to the CFP has nothing to do with the fact that they are a party to the CFP contract. That comes exclusively as a result of being ranked in the Top Four teams, which they have done twice. So, three times in seven years a team has been selected for the playoffs without being a conference champion. If BYU, or any other independent, were to finish in the Top Four they would be in the playoff, just like every one of the 130 FBS schools.

That being said, BYU's chances are limited. They almost surely would have to finish unbeaten against a schedule with a majority of not just P5 opponents, but highly ranked P5 opponents. The chances of getting more than two or three of those on their schedule in any given season are remote.

Fortunately for BYU, a national championship in football is probably not high on their list of goals. Promoting their religion nationally is much higher, and they can do that every year as an independent.
01-07-2021 09:26 PM
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esayem Offline
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Post: #15
RE: Boise St looking to move on from MWC
(01-07-2021 08:25 PM)MidknightWhiskey Wrote:  
(01-07-2021 03:14 PM)esayem Wrote:  
(01-07-2021 12:32 PM)Merrick Wrote:  
(01-07-2021 12:15 PM)esayem Wrote:  
(01-07-2021 11:45 AM)tigerjamesc Wrote:  AAC goal of P6 status is closer to being achieved with a Boise, BYU, and either SDSU or Army/Gonzaga combo. Boise alone doesn’t move the needle all that much. Boise/BYU +1 does. Fold Army/Navy into the conference package. All BYU and Boise games into the package in addition to Army/Navy would likely trigger a media rights renegotiation. I think it doubles the value which still would be less than half the P5, but light years ahead of the G4

I believe BYU's goal is to make the playoffs. The best way to do that is by filling up their schedule with P5 programs, something they can't do in the AAC.

Wrong.

They cannot do that without being a Conference Champion!

04-cheers

Notre Dame made the playoffs without being in a conference. Other teams made the playoffs without winning their conference (actually including ND this season).

Notre Dame is specifically named along with the autonomous conferences in the CFP contract, BYU is not. So according to that contract BYU is in the same grouping as Uconn, Umass, Liberty, New Mexico State & Army. The 5 non autonomous conferences are named for the NY6 access bowl, those indy programs are not. We'll see how everything shakes up when the new contract is negotiated but that's how things stand right now. BYU has a lower ceiling than the "G5" because they at least have a NY6 access bowl.

I never mentioned NY6 bowls, I’m taking about a playoff spot. A playoff spot is all at-large so being in the AAC or the ACC or Independent doesn’t matter. Strength of schedule and record does.
01-07-2021 11:08 PM
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The Cutter of Bish Offline
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Post: #16
RE: Boise St looking to move on from MWC
(01-07-2021 09:25 PM)Wedge Wrote:  
(01-07-2021 09:05 PM)UTEPDallas Wrote:  BYU won’t join a G5 conference for one reason only: the University of Utah.

BYU won’t have on the schedule the likes of Temple, Tulsa, East Carolina, SMU, the Florida twins, etc while Utah plays a Pac-12 schedule. Their ego won’t allow it. The best thing they can do is play a semi national schedule with P5, MWC schools and some independents. Their schedule in 2020 (before the COVID-19 cancellations) looked great.

And please save the “but the Pac-12 sucks”. That’s not the point. The point is the Pac-12 is part of the cartel. BYU and whatever G5 conference posters on this board want BYU to be part of is outside looking in. They won’t admit Utah has already passed them by so independence is the only option until a P5 comes calling.

I think we can illustrate the BYU vs. Utah situation by making a state of Utah analogy to the state of Indiana.

BYU as a football independent can think of themselves as the Notre Dame of the west while the Utes, in this analogy, are the Indiana Hoosiers. That's an analogy that satisfies BYU.

If BYU was in a G5 conference, in their eyes, it would be more like they're Ball State while the Utes are the Hoosiers. That's the kind of comparison they are avoiding by being a football indy.

I think this hits it pretty close. The question I have is does BYU truly believe that their 12-0 in any given year is as good as or better than Notre Dame’s? That a committee would sniff an undefeated BYU any year?

Because, I suspect the committee sees them no differently, and maybe less than an undefeated AAC or MWC school. Does BYU have any self awareness?
01-08-2021 10:43 AM
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1845 Bear Offline
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Post: #17
RE: Boise St looking to move on from MWC
(01-08-2021 10:43 AM)The Cutter of Bish Wrote:  
(01-07-2021 09:25 PM)Wedge Wrote:  
(01-07-2021 09:05 PM)UTEPDallas Wrote:  BYU won’t join a G5 conference for one reason only: the University of Utah.

BYU won’t have on the schedule the likes of Temple, Tulsa, East Carolina, SMU, the Florida twins, etc while Utah plays a Pac-12 schedule. Their ego won’t allow it. The best thing they can do is play a semi national schedule with P5, MWC schools and some independents. Their schedule in 2020 (before the COVID-19 cancellations) looked great.

And please save the “but the Pac-12 sucks”. That’s not the point. The point is the Pac-12 is part of the cartel. BYU and whatever G5 conference posters on this board want BYU to be part of is outside looking in. They won’t admit Utah has already passed them by so independence is the only option until a P5 comes calling.

I think we can illustrate the BYU vs. Utah situation by making a state of Utah analogy to the state of Indiana.

BYU as a football independent can think of themselves as the Notre Dame of the west while the Utes, in this analogy, are the Indiana Hoosiers. That's an analogy that satisfies BYU.

If BYU was in a G5 conference, in their eyes, it would be more like they're Ball State while the Utes are the Hoosiers. That's the kind of comparison they are avoiding by being a football indy.

I think this hits it pretty close. The question I have is does BYU truly believe that their 12-0 in any given year is as good as or better than Notre Dame’s? That a committee would sniff an undefeated BYU any year?

Because, I suspect the committee sees them no differently, and maybe less than an undefeated AAC or MWC school. Does BYU have any self awareness?

They wouldn't treat the schedule 2020 BYU ended up playing with any favorable view but the schedule they were set to play before COVID probably gets that call.

Utah, Mich St, AZ State, Minnesota, Missouri, and Stanford from the P5. Houston, Boise, NIU, SDSU, and USU from the G5 and one FCS team. Depending on who they'd be up against that SOS would have had a shot if they ran the table.

In 2021 they play Arizona, Utah, ASU, Baylor, Wazzu, UVA, and USC. That's one game shy of a P5 league slate in the ACC or SEC. From there they also play Boise who's usually on that level, USU, USF, Ga Southern, and one FCS team. Depending on if any of the other G5's are good in a given year and who they are up against that schedule would likely get a P5 treatment.

2022?
P5 teams Baylor, Oregon, Arkansas, Stanford already scheduled with two openings still on the schedule. They also have Boise, Liberty, Wyoming, USU, and an FCS team.

By playing 4-7 P5's and Boise plus several notable G5's their SOS will likely be close enough to challenge for a spot if they run the table.

Their SOS will be wildly different than many AAC teams most years so I do think the playoff committee will view them differently. Their 2019 schedule had only 4 P5 schools and the anchor of Toledo's and Umass's awful ranking yet ranked 65th on Sagarin. A little better luck on which G5's are on the schedule and another P5 or three as we see scheduled up already and that could be much better. For reference their 2020 schedule ended up being worse than 100th when they played only G5/FCS.
(This post was last modified: 01-08-2021 10:59 AM by 1845 Bear.)
01-08-2021 10:50 AM
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solohawks Offline
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Post: #18
RE: Boise St looking to move on from MWC
(01-08-2021 10:50 AM)1845 Bear Wrote:  
(01-08-2021 10:43 AM)The Cutter of Bish Wrote:  
(01-07-2021 09:25 PM)Wedge Wrote:  
(01-07-2021 09:05 PM)UTEPDallas Wrote:  BYU won’t join a G5 conference for one reason only: the University of Utah.

BYU won’t have on the schedule the likes of Temple, Tulsa, East Carolina, SMU, the Florida twins, etc while Utah plays a Pac-12 schedule. Their ego won’t allow it. The best thing they can do is play a semi national schedule with P5, MWC schools and some independents. Their schedule in 2020 (before the COVID-19 cancellations) looked great.

And please save the “but the Pac-12 sucks”. That’s not the point. The point is the Pac-12 is part of the cartel. BYU and whatever G5 conference posters on this board want BYU to be part of is outside looking in. They won’t admit Utah has already passed them by so independence is the only option until a P5 comes calling.

I think we can illustrate the BYU vs. Utah situation by making a state of Utah analogy to the state of Indiana.

BYU as a football independent can think of themselves as the Notre Dame of the west while the Utes, in this analogy, are the Indiana Hoosiers. That's an analogy that satisfies BYU.

If BYU was in a G5 conference, in their eyes, it would be more like they're Ball State while the Utes are the Hoosiers. That's the kind of comparison they are avoiding by being a football indy.

I think this hits it pretty close. The question I have is does BYU truly believe that their 12-0 in any given year is as good as or better than Notre Dame’s? That a committee would sniff an undefeated BYU any year?

Because, I suspect the committee sees them no differently, and maybe less than an undefeated AAC or MWC school. Does BYU have any self awareness?

They wouldn't treat the schedule 2020 BYU ended up playing with any favorable view but the schedule they were set to play before COVID probably gets that call.

Utah, Mich St, AZ State, Minnesota, Missouri, and Stanford from the P5. Houston, Boise, NIU, SDSU, and USU from the G5 and one FCS team. Depending on who they'd be up against that SOS would have had a shot if they ran the table.

In 2021 they play Arizona, Utah, ASU, Baylor, Wazzu, UVA, and USC. That's one game shy of a P5 league slate in the ACC or SEC. From there they also play Boise who's usually on that level, USU, USF, Ga Southern, and one FCS team. Depending on if any of the other G5's are good in a given year and who they are up against that schedule would likely get a P5 treatment.

2022?
P5 teams Baylor, Oregon, Arkansas, Stanford already scheduled with two openings still on the schedule. They also have Boise, Liberty, Wyoming, USU, and an FCS team.

By playing 4-7 P5's and Boise plus several notable G5's their SOS will likely be close enough to challenge for a spot if they run the table.

Their SOS will be wildly different than many AAC teams most years so I do think the playoff committee will view them differently.

Exactly!

Being independent allows them to put together a comparable P5 schedule without being in a P5 league.

While G5 league membership would give them better guaranteed access to a NY6 bowl, I believe they are putting themselves in contention with the schedules they are playing if they can go 10-2 or higher.
01-08-2021 10:56 AM
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1845 Bear Offline
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Post: #19
RE: Boise St looking to move on from MWC
(01-08-2021 10:56 AM)solohawks Wrote:  
(01-08-2021 10:50 AM)1845 Bear Wrote:  
(01-08-2021 10:43 AM)The Cutter of Bish Wrote:  
(01-07-2021 09:25 PM)Wedge Wrote:  
(01-07-2021 09:05 PM)UTEPDallas Wrote:  BYU won’t join a G5 conference for one reason only: the University of Utah.

BYU won’t have on the schedule the likes of Temple, Tulsa, East Carolina, SMU, the Florida twins, etc while Utah plays a Pac-12 schedule. Their ego won’t allow it. The best thing they can do is play a semi national schedule with P5, MWC schools and some independents. Their schedule in 2020 (before the COVID-19 cancellations) looked great.

And please save the “but the Pac-12 sucks”. That’s not the point. The point is the Pac-12 is part of the cartel. BYU and whatever G5 conference posters on this board want BYU to be part of is outside looking in. They won’t admit Utah has already passed them by so independence is the only option until a P5 comes calling.

I think we can illustrate the BYU vs. Utah situation by making a state of Utah analogy to the state of Indiana.

BYU as a football independent can think of themselves as the Notre Dame of the west while the Utes, in this analogy, are the Indiana Hoosiers. That's an analogy that satisfies BYU.

If BYU was in a G5 conference, in their eyes, it would be more like they're Ball State while the Utes are the Hoosiers. That's the kind of comparison they are avoiding by being a football indy.

I think this hits it pretty close. The question I have is does BYU truly believe that their 12-0 in any given year is as good as or better than Notre Dame’s? That a committee would sniff an undefeated BYU any year?

Because, I suspect the committee sees them no differently, and maybe less than an undefeated AAC or MWC school. Does BYU have any self awareness?

They wouldn't treat the schedule 2020 BYU ended up playing with any favorable view but the schedule they were set to play before COVID probably gets that call.

Utah, Mich St, AZ State, Minnesota, Missouri, and Stanford from the P5. Houston, Boise, NIU, SDSU, and USU from the G5 and one FCS team. Depending on who they'd be up against that SOS would have had a shot if they ran the table.

In 2021 they play Arizona, Utah, ASU, Baylor, Wazzu, UVA, and USC. That's one game shy of a P5 league slate in the ACC or SEC. From there they also play Boise who's usually on that level, USU, USF, Ga Southern, and one FCS team. Depending on if any of the other G5's are good in a given year and who they are up against that schedule would likely get a P5 treatment.

2022?
P5 teams Baylor, Oregon, Arkansas, Stanford already scheduled with two openings still on the schedule. They also have Boise, Liberty, Wyoming, USU, and an FCS team.

By playing 4-7 P5's and Boise plus several notable G5's their SOS will likely be close enough to challenge for a spot if they run the table.

Their SOS will be wildly different than many AAC teams most years so I do think the playoff committee will view them differently.

Exactly!

Being independent allows them to put together a comparable P5 schedule without being in a P5 league.

While G5 league membership would give them better guaranteed access to a NY6 bowl, I believe they are putting themselves in contention with the schedules they are playing if they can go 10-2 or higher.

Contention for a 4 team playoff? That's likely needing to be unbeaten or one close loss.
01-08-2021 11:01 AM
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ken d Offline
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Post: #20
RE: Boise St looking to move on from MWC
(01-08-2021 10:43 AM)The Cutter of Bish Wrote:  
(01-07-2021 09:25 PM)Wedge Wrote:  
(01-07-2021 09:05 PM)UTEPDallas Wrote:  BYU won’t join a G5 conference for one reason only: the University of Utah.

BYU won’t have on the schedule the likes of Temple, Tulsa, East Carolina, SMU, the Florida twins, etc while Utah plays a Pac-12 schedule. Their ego won’t allow it. The best thing they can do is play a semi national schedule with P5, MWC schools and some independents. Their schedule in 2020 (before the COVID-19 cancellations) looked great.

And please save the “but the Pac-12 sucks”. That’s not the point. The point is the Pac-12 is part of the cartel. BYU and whatever G5 conference posters on this board want BYU to be part of is outside looking in. They won’t admit Utah has already passed them by so independence is the only option until a P5 comes calling.

I think we can illustrate the BYU vs. Utah situation by making a state of Utah analogy to the state of Indiana.

BYU as a football independent can think of themselves as the Notre Dame of the west while the Utes, in this analogy, are the Indiana Hoosiers. That's an analogy that satisfies BYU.

If BYU was in a G5 conference, in their eyes, it would be more like they're Ball State while the Utes are the Hoosiers. That's the kind of comparison they are avoiding by being a football indy.

I think this hits it pretty close. The question I have is does BYU truly believe that their 12-0 in any given year is as good as or better than Notre Dame’s? That a committee would sniff an undefeated BYU any year?

Because, I suspect the committee sees them no differently, and maybe less than an undefeated AAC or MWC school. Does BYU have any self awareness?

If this were 2018 or earlier, I would answer that neither BYU nor the committee would view a 12-0 BYU as equal to a 12-0 Notre Dame. But no longer. BYU's schedules going forward are significantly upgraded now, and every bit as challenging as Notre Dame's (see my Post #584). It would not surprise me greatly if the only change to the CFP structure in the next contract renewal were to change nothing except to give BYU the same status as Notre Dame, if for no other reason than to blunt criticism of what many view as an unwarranted sweetheart deal for the Irish.

Keep in mind, however, that those enhanced BYU schedules, which will typically include 8 or more P5 opponents, will only help the Cougars if they beat most if not all of those quality opponents. 10-2 will never be enough for them to get a playoff berth, and 11-1 probably won't do it most of the time either. They are still going to need to catch lightning in a bottle, having a great team in the same year they have a great schedule (that is, not just P5 opponents, but highly ranked P5 opponents).

If they could snag the same status as ND, though, they could still get an NY6 berth even if they don't qualify for the CFP. I believe they would be perfectly happy with that.
01-08-2021 11:05 AM
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