(01-05-2021 04:35 PM)Stugray2 Wrote: (01-05-2021 02:04 AM)jedclampett Wrote: If Boise State were to join the Big Sky, they would have a yellow brick road to the NCAA most seasons. They would, thus, have a great opportunity to build their basketball "brand," the same way that Gonzaga did, and to become the Gonzaga of the Big Sky Conference.
After making the NCAA tournament 2 or 3 years in a row, Boise would be considered a perennial NCAA team, practically overnight, and their recruiting would improve by leaps and bounds, as a consequence.
I think the opposite would happen. Recruiting would dry up because you are not playing high caliber players...
Long Beach State (and UC Santa Barbara) used to have top 50 programs, borderline ranked and even tourney appearances. But when UNLV and other schools left the Big West for the WAC (then on to the MWC) they found themselves drifting into irrelevance.
Boise State knows that in the MWC, if they can put together a good season, they will get ranked like Nevada and San Diego State have managed.
But in the WAC or Big West it's death by invisibility.
The WCC is really the only alternative to the MWC in the West...
Taken one by one, none of these points really holds up to scrutiny:
1.
Schools such as Belmont and New Mexico State have proven that recruiting doesn't "dry up" for perennial NCAA tournament schools from the conferences that have typically sent only one team to the tournament.
Moreover, Boise State has long surprised observers with its recruiting potential. Few would suggest that Boise State FB's recruiting would "dry up" if they were to play in the MAC.
Playing in a less prestigious conference can have varying effects (such as making it easier to get a NCAA bid), and doesn't automatically cause recruiting to dry up. The top recruits within a conference tend to gravitate to the top programs in the conference, which can sustain their recruiting by making repeat trips to the NCAA and NIT tournaments.
Examples:
Wichita State's recruiting didn't "dry up" when their conference, the MVC, was significantly weakened by the departure of Creighton.
The quality of recruiting in the Atlantic 10 Conference has remained strong, despite the departures of elite level BB schools such as WVU, Temple, Xavier, and Butler. The remaining A-10 schools, such as Dayton, VCU, Rhode Island, St. Louis, Davidson, and Richmond have sustained their recruiting by making post-season trips to the NCAA and NIT.
2.
Is it true that Long Beach State and UC Santa Barbara "drift(ed) into irrelevance" because UNLV left the Big West?
Not really. UNLV's glory days were behind them, and they had already begun to drift into obscurity before they left the Big West in 1996. UNLV's record in their final 3 years in the Big West were 15-13, 12-16, and 10-16.
Long Beach State actually had more 20+ win seasons, not fewer after UNLV departed the Big West.
2011-12: 25 wins
2010-11: 22 wins
2006-07: 24 wins
1999-00: 24 wins
1996: UNLV goes 10-16 and departs the Big West
1994-95: 20 wins (UNLV goes 12-16)
1992-93: 22 wins (UNLV goes 15-13)
1989-90: 23 wins
Moreover, if playing in a more prestigious conference led to improved competitiveness, then UNLV's recruiting should have improved when they moved to the MWC, but the opposite actually occurred. UNLV had by far the most success when they played in the Big West, not the MWC.
Nor is UNLV an isolated example. There is a long list of schools that have had more success in lower-ranked conferences than they've had when they played in higher-ranked conferences.
.
3.
Has New Mexico State become "irrelevant" as a result of playing in the WAC?
Hardly. They've maintained a very successful program. NMSU has gone 28-6, 30-5, and 25-6 in the past three seasons, and have played in the 2012, '13, ''14, '15, '17, '18, and '19 NCAA tournaments.
4. The idea that Boise State will have little trouble becoming ranked or a perennial NCAA tournament team, given that the MWC usually gets only 1 or 2 NCAA bids, isn't persuasive, considering that they would have to compete with San Diego State, in particular.
5.
Q: Boise State wouldn't consider the WAC or Big West because that would result in "death by invisibility" ?
A: Incorrect. Boise's administration has been actively considering the idea of joining one, if not both of these conferences.
6.
Q: The WCC is Boise's "only alternative" to the MWC in the West?
A: Also incorrect, given that Boise State has been shown interest in moving their BB & olympic sports programs into the Big West or WAC.