schmolik
CSNBB's Big 10 Cheerleader
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Joined: Sep 2019
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I Root For: UIUC, PSU, Nova
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RE: How the Big XII and AAC would eventually merge
(10-21-2020 01:37 PM)jedclampett Wrote: (10-21-2020 01:03 PM)AztecEmpire Wrote: I think it's more likely that the B12 successfully poaches a couple or more PAC schools than the other way around. The PAC is in a nose dive on all fronts.
That may well be the case. The PAC "needs" Texas and Oklahoma the way a kangaroo needs a subscription to Netflix.
That being said, it's hard to think of a PAC team that would be better off in the Big 12. Colorado would be the best fit, but they were unhappy in the Big 12 and would be unlikely to return. Utah seems to be doing just fine in the PAC - - "if it ain't broke, why fix it?"
That would probably leave just AZ and AZ State. Would they have anything to gain from switching to the Big 12?
Assuming it's just them, I'd probably stay in the Pac-12 as all $ being equal I'd rather be with the California schools than the Texas schools. Of course if the $ isn't equal, as USC once said, everything is on the table.
(10-21-2020 08:54 AM)Thiefery Wrote: (10-20-2020 01:53 PM)schmolik Wrote: (10-20-2020 12:06 PM)Thiefery Wrote: (10-20-2020 09:59 AM)schmolik Wrote: (10-20-2020 08:51 AM)Thiefery Wrote: So you think UT or ou would be wary of the competition if they went to either the BIG or SEC? Seriously?
And the fans of those conferences/schools, wouldn't want to play Texas or ou? Are you kidding me? LSU fans drove the 8 hour trip and packed Austin a year ago. You don't think UT playing MN in MN wouldn't sell out that crowd?
As far as the lawsuits and stuff go.. They can't sue if they decide to leave as soon as the GOR expires. It's only 4 more years away but in '22, they both will be putting feelers out there just to check the temperature.
As I said before, as a UT fan, I really wouldn't want them to go to the BIG..even if ou agrees to go there. I'd rather take Tech in tow and play in the SEC.. where there is built in rivalries vs Ark and aggy.. and I'm pretty sure LSU will be the next. Travel will be less expensive than playing a BIG West division. RRS will remain in Dallas, and ou can re-unite with Nebraska with or without osu.
I really don't feel a Pac merger will really help either schools.. So if UT/ou move on.. maybe the PAC expands and grabs TCU/BU/UH..?
But if Oklahoma goes to the SEC and the SEC says to Texas you can come in and be #16 but Tech/Baylor/etc isn't welcome, would UT join the SEC on those terms?
I'm Big Ten first but from a college football standpoint I would want OU/UT in the SEC first because of the rivalries (UT with A&M and Ark, OU with Ala, LSU).
Didn't know that ou/ark was a thing tbh. Have no idea what would happen if the SEC used ou as leverage.. at that point, I see UT calling their bluff, forcing the SEC to take Kansas or oklahoma st to pair up with ou, while UT just goes independent. BIG is not for UT
I meant to say Texas with A&M and Arkansas and Oklahoma with Alabama and LSU. I'm sure many of the more western SEC schools would love to play both Texas and Oklahoma.
UT wants to "call the SEC's bluff"? They can enjoy a lot less money. Then watch the Sugar Bowl go to SEC/ACC and/or the CFP go to four conference champions. You want to do all of this for Tech?
I would do it if it were up to me, but UT wouldn't agree if the SEC commish told them.. Either you alone join with ou or you are out and we will get KU/osu to take your place. UT will say, oh really? and move on.. For better or worse, they won't get an ultimatum.. Larry Scott tried doing that and it ended poorly for him
The key for Texas last time was Oklahoma was still on their side. As long as Oklahoma remains loyal to UT and the Big 12, the Big 12 is a P5 conference and the networks, the other P5's, and everyone else has to accept them and the Little Eight as one (or Little Seven ifs one of them joins OU in the SEC). But if the others can wrestle OU away from Texas, then the Big 12 as Texas and the Little Eight has less power. Also, Texas football was a lot stronger now than they were back around 2010. Now Oklahoma is clearly the big dog football wise in the Big 12, UT has been mediocre in the 2010's, and we've seen the Longhorn Network in action (it wasn't the success ESPN thought it would be).
(10-21-2020 10:02 AM)jedclampett Wrote: It's very doubtful that Texas and Oklahoma could do much better in the SEC or Big Ten.
They're sitting pretty, right where they are.
Texas, in particular, has a great arrangement, since they're generating a lot of revenue through the Longhorn network.
(10-21-2020 10:08 AM)quo vadis Wrote: (10-21-2020 10:02 AM)jedclampett Wrote: It's very doubtful that Texas and Oklahoma could do much better in the SEC or Big Ten.
They're sitting pretty, right where they are.
Texas, in particular, has a great arrangement, since they're generating a lot of revenue through the Longhorn network.
I agree with this. Texas and Oklahoma like being the 900 and 800 pound gorillas of the Big 12. Even Texas would not have nearly as much power in the B1G or SEC.
They will stay where they are unless circumstances compel them. What are compelling circumstances? We saw one of them emerge in 2015, when Oklahoma was convinced that without a CCG, the Big 12 was at a structural disadvantage in making the playoffs. That was solved by getting the rules changed to allow them a CCG. So access to playoffs is one thing.
The other of course would be money. If the dust settles on a new round of TV deals in 2025 and it is clear that the Big 12 is and will continue to fall dramatically behind the B1G and SEC, that could prompt them to move as well, either to one of those conferences, the PAC, or to go independent.
That's based on the current contracts. If ESPN and FOX wanted to stiff the Big 12 in the next set of contracts, they could. They can make Oklahoma and/or Texas "an offer they can't refuse" to leave. That's what I would do. Why am I paying P5 rates for 10 schools when only two schools in the conference are worth it and I can just move those two schools to other conferences and pay the Little 8 G5 rates instead? If ESPN and FOX think like me, they will do what they can to entice Oklahoma/Texas to the SEC, Big Ten, or Pac 12.
(10-21-2020 11:21 AM)Thiefery Wrote: (10-21-2020 10:08 AM)quo vadis Wrote: (10-21-2020 10:02 AM)jedclampett Wrote: It's very doubtful that Texas and Oklahoma could do much better in the SEC or Big Ten.
They're sitting pretty, right where they are.
Texas, in particular, has a great arrangement, since they're generating a lot of revenue through the Longhorn network.
I agree with this. Texas and Oklahoma like being the 900 and 800 pound gorillas of the Big 12. Even Texas would not have nearly as much power in the B1G or SEC.
They will stay where they are unless circumstances compel them. What are compelling circumstances? We saw one of them emerge in 2015, when Oklahoma was convinced that without a CCG, the Big 12 was at a structural disadvantage in making the playoffs. That was solved by getting the rules changed to allow them a CCG. So access to playoffs is one thing.
The other of course would be money. If the dust settles on a new round of TV deals in 2025 and it is clear that the Big 12 is and will continue to fall dramatically behind the B1G and SEC, that could prompt them to move as well, either to one of those conferences, the PAC, or to go independent.
Can y'all fill me in on the power in conference talk? Don't get the they lose the power talk if they moved to the BIG or SEC. If UT was in the SEC, what will magically disappear that they have right now in the Big12? The only difference is the path to the CFP.
Is it because the Big12 title game is in Dallas? And they would be playing in GA for the SEC CCG? Or if Jerry throws out money to have it rotated then, is that UT using it's "power"?
I think it's an overrated narrative tbh.
That would be an interesting thought? Could the SEC use the Championship Game and move it to Arlington some years as a way to lure Oklahoma/Texas into the conference? I'm sure not only they would like it but Texas A&M and LSU might prefer it to Atlanta. I'm sure Jerry (or Stephen if Jerry passes in the next few years as Jerry's pretty old now) will pay megabucks for the SEC Championship Game.
(10-21-2020 02:07 PM)quo vadis Wrote: (10-21-2020 11:21 AM)Thiefery Wrote: (10-21-2020 10:08 AM)quo vadis Wrote: (10-21-2020 10:02 AM)jedclampett Wrote: It's very doubtful that Texas and Oklahoma could do much better in the SEC or Big Ten.
They're sitting pretty, right where they are.
Texas, in particular, has a great arrangement, since they're generating a lot of revenue through the Longhorn network.
I agree with this. Texas and Oklahoma like being the 900 and 800 pound gorillas of the Big 12. Even Texas would not have nearly as much power in the B1G or SEC.
They will stay where they are unless circumstances compel them. What are compelling circumstances? We saw one of them emerge in 2015, when Oklahoma was convinced that without a CCG, the Big 12 was at a structural disadvantage in making the playoffs. That was solved by getting the rules changed to allow them a CCG. So access to playoffs is one thing.
The other of course would be money. If the dust settles on a new round of TV deals in 2025 and it is clear that the Big 12 is and will continue to fall dramatically behind the B1G and SEC, that could prompt them to move as well, either to one of those conferences, the PAC, or to go independent.
Can y'all fill me in on the power in conference talk? Don't get the they lose the power talk if they moved to the BIG or SEC. If UT was in the SEC, what will magically disappear that they have right now in the Big12? The only difference is the path to the CFP.
Is it because the Big12 title game is in Dallas? And they would be playing in GA for the SEC CCG? Or if Jerry throws out money to have it rotated then, is that UT using it's "power"?
I think it's an overrated narrative tbh.
To be clear, when I refer to power, I am referring to political and administrative power in running the conference. Not success on the athletic fields.
Currently, Texas wields enormous power in the Big 12 because the rest of the conference, with the exception of Oklahoma, knows that if Texas doesn't like how the conference is being run, it can leave and that would likely cause the other schools to fall from the ranks of the Power-conference level. As the Iowa State AD said in 2016 "without Texas and Oklahoma, we are the Mountain West". And falling from the ranks of the P-level is the ultimate nightmare for a school currently in that club.
This gives those two schools enormous leverage when it comes to making decisions about how to run the conference. Despite being outnumbered greatly, nothing will happen in the Big 12 unless Texas and OU approve.
But if Texas were to join the B1G or SEC, they would lose that leverage, because obviously those leagues do not need them in order to be Power-level. They are power-level right now without them. So they would lose that kind of dominant administrative power they have in the Big 12.
And believe me, Administrators like having Administrative power. It's largely why they become Administrators.
No one's questioning Texas's desire for power. The goal is to throw so much money at them to give up power (or take so much money away from them). Either that or enjoy paying Baylor and Iowa State more than you're paying Clemson.
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