Hello There, Guest! (LoginRegister)

Post Reply 
How the Big XII and AAC would eventually merge
Author Message
jedclampett Offline
1st String
*

Posts: 2,189
Joined: Jul 2019
Reputation: 100
I Root For: Temple
Location:
Post: #41
RE: How the Big XII and AAC would eventually merge
(10-09-2020 04:43 PM)BePcr07 Wrote:  
(10-09-2020 04:32 PM)ChrisLords Wrote:  I think Iowa State, West Virginia, Baylor, and Texas Christian would take the G5 schools that would most help their football profile. So the schools that have been to major bowls and have the recent history of winning. Also, I think they will want to keep the number of members at 10. That way they can maximize revenue. 9 football games plus a championship game, 18 basketball games and the minimum number of Olympic sports sponsored by the conference since they are so geographically dispersed.


Baylor
Boise State
BYU
Central Florida
Cincinnati
Houston
Iowa State
Memphis
Texas Christian
West Virginia

I think you could get to 12 with South Florida and, say, SMU. Split divisions by geography.

West: Baylor, Boise St, BYU, Iowa St, SMU, TCU
East: Central Florida, Cincinnati, Houston, Memphis, South Florida, West Virginia


.

That would be a damn good FB conference. From top to bottom, it might be as competitive as the current Big-12.

The only missing factor would be the lack of a nationally dominant program of Oklahoma's stature, but it's possible that one might emerge after a few years of conference play.

.

Needless to say, it would be a disaster for the AAC, which would lose four (or six) of its best teams. To survive, they would need to either reload (with App State, Marshall, Buffalo, WKU, etc.) or merge with the MWC, which would have a total of 16 or 18 members after losing Boise St.

Mountain West Division: SDSU, SJSU, Fresno, Nevada, UNLV, Utah St., Wyoming, New Mexico,* & Hawaii (FB)

American Eastern Division: Air Force, CSU, Tulsa, Tulane, Navy/Wichita, Temple, ECU, SMU,* & USF*

*If SMU & USF were to join the Big 12, the merged MWC/AAC would have 16 members, and New Mexico would be in the American East Division.

.

Q: Would Oklahoma be able to maintain its current status as one of the top 5 FB schools in the country, after switching conferences?

A: Not necessarily. Their former top FB rival, Nebraska, was for decades one of the nation's top FB powerhouses, but the Cornhuskers program has steadily declined since they left the Big 12:


* Nebraska has not finished in the Final AP Top 20 once in their decade in the Big Ten. In the prior decade (2001-2010) in the Big 12, Nebraska had four teams in the Final AP Top 20.

* Nebraska has had three losing seasons in a row (2017, 2018, & 2019), for the first time since the 1950s.


.

Q: In general, have the major (P5, SWC, & Big East) FB programs tended to be successful after switching to another major conference?

A: No, the vast majority have not. For every school that maintained a relatively high success rate after switching to another major conference, there have been six schools that have had less, or little success.

Only two programs (Louisville and VT) have been able to maintain a relatively high level of success (e.g., maintaining an average 60%+ winning percentage) after switching to another major conference.

- - However, Louisville hasn't had any Final AP Top 20 teams since joining the ACC, after having had three Final AP Top 20 teams as a member of the Big East.

- - Virginia Tech had the most success after switching conferences, but they have only had one Final AP Top 20 team in the past 9 seasons, after having had six Final AP Top 20 teams in their last 9 seasons in the Big East.


These eleven programs, most of which had been very, or fairly successful before switching conferences, have had less, or little success after switching to another major (P5) conference:

Arkansas, Nebraska, Missouri, Colorado, Miami, West Virginia, Syracuse, Pitt, Boston College, Rutgers, and Maryland.
(This post was last modified: 10-10-2020 12:49 AM by jedclampett.)
10-10-2020 12:12 AM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
ChrisLords Offline
Heisman
*

Posts: 6,370
Joined: Jun 2007
Reputation: 125
I Root For: Virginia Tech
Location: Earth
Post: #42
RE: How the Big XII and AAC would eventually merge
(10-10-2020 12:12 AM)jedclampett Wrote:  
(10-09-2020 04:43 PM)BePcr07 Wrote:  
(10-09-2020 04:32 PM)ChrisLords Wrote:  I think Iowa State, West Virginia, Baylor, and Texas Christian would take the G5 schools that would most help their football profile. So the schools that have been to major bowls and have the recent history of winning. Also, I think they will want to keep the number of members at 10. That way they can maximize revenue. 9 football games plus a championship game, 18 basketball games and the minimum number of Olympic sports sponsored by the conference since they are so geographically dispersed.


Baylor
Boise State
BYU
Central Florida
Cincinnati
Houston
Iowa State
Memphis
Texas Christian
West Virginia

I think you could get to 12 with South Florida and, say, SMU. Split divisions by geography.

West: Baylor, Boise St, BYU, Iowa St, SMU, TCU
East: Central Florida, Cincinnati, Houston, Memphis, South Florida, West Virginia

That would be a damn good FB conference. From top to bottom, it might be as competitive as the current Big-12. The only missing factor would be the lack of a nationally dominant program of Oklahoma's stature, but it's possible that one might emerge after a few years of conference play.

Q: Would Oklahoma be able to maintain its current status as one of the top 5 FB schools in the country, after switching conferences?

A: Maybe not. Their former top FB rival, Nebraska, was for decades one of the nation's top FB powerhouses, but the Cornhuskers program has steadily declined since they left the Big 12:


* Nebraska has not finished in the Final AP Top 20 once in their decade in the Big Ten. In the prior decade (2001-2010) in the Big 12, Nebraska had four teams in the Final AP Top 20.

* Nebraska has had three losing seasons in a row (2017, 2018, & 2019), for the first time since the 1950s.

.

Q: In general, have the major (P5, SWC, & Big East) FB programs tended to be successful after switching to another major conference?

A: No, the vast majority have not. For every school that maintained a relatively high success rate after switching to another major conference, there have been six schools that have had less, or little success.

Only two programs (Louisville and VT) have been able to maintain a relatively high level of success (e.g., maintaining an average 60%+ winning percentage) after switching to another major conference.

- - However, Louisville hasn't had any Final AP Top 20 teams since joining the ACC, after having had three Final AP Top 20 teams as a member of the Big East.

- - Virginia Tech had the most success after switching conferences, but they have only had one Final AP Top 20 team in the past 9 seasons, after having had six Final AP Top 20 teams in their last 9 seasons in the Big East.

These eleven programs, most of which had been very, or fairly successful before switching conferences, have had less, or little success after switching to another major (P5) conference:

Arkansas, Nebraska, Missouri, Colorado, Miami, West Virginia, Syracuse, Pitt, Boston College, Rutgers, and Maryland.

I agree, that is a very good conference. Better than the Pac 12.

I believe Oklahoma would decline if they moved to the B1G with Kansas and only played 1 game a year in Texas. Separated from their traditional recruiting grounds in Texas.

Nebraska has been in decline since 1997. Going from winning MNC's to playing for them, to being outside the top 10, to only 10 win seasons, to less than 10 win seasons and then their time in the B1G. Yes the decline has been far worse since they've been in the B1G but they've been in decline for a while.

Utah really hasn't had much success either. They were a power for a few years in the MWC with TCU and BYU battling it out annually.

TCU is another one that hasn't had much success. They had that one year where tOSU beat them and Baylor out for the 4th CFP spot, and probably some other years finished ranked but they were a power in CUSA and the MWC too.

Maryland and Rutgers continue to struggle as you said 'or had little success'.

Cuse had a 10 win season 2 years ago. Not much to report before or after though.

Miami had a 10 win season and are back in the top 10 but 'we are back University' still has a lot to prove.
(This post was last modified: 10-10-2020 12:59 AM by ChrisLords.)
10-10-2020 12:57 AM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
XLance Online
Heisman
*

Posts: 9,660
Joined: Mar 2008
Reputation: 306
I Root For: Carolina
Location:
Post: #43
RE: How the Big XII and AAC would eventually merge
I think you are putting the cart before the horse with your "how" question. Until the who and why questions are answered the how makes no sense.

I would speculate that why needs to be explored first

One reason might be that one or more teams depart from the Big 12 for other conferences, leaving the Big 12 unable to continue to be recognized as a P conference.
10-10-2020 04:49 AM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
goodknightfl Online
Hall of Famer
*

Posts: 17,829
Joined: Feb 2004
Reputation: 290
I Root For:
Location:
Post: #44
RE: How the Big XII and AAC would eventually merge
(10-08-2020 05:30 PM)IWokeUpLikeThis Wrote:  Anyone see Van Halen live?

quote of the day..
10-10-2020 08:01 AM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
blazer-J Offline
2nd String
*

Posts: 302
Joined: Nov 2007
Reputation: 4
I Root For: UAB
Location:
Post: #45
RE: How the Big XII and AAC would eventually merge
I don't think we'll see any conferences go beyond 16 teams.


Under some scenarios I could see the ACC adding a Texas wing of TCU and Baylor if those two got stranded in a depleted B12. Or maybe adding TCU and Navy (football only to balance out ND).

The SEC will probably like to add two teams. Main targets would be Texas and OK.
Other than those two, I think they would like to get into NC and Virginia. UNC and Va are non-starters due to academic snobbery and they fact that they would get killed every week. Va Tech and NC State would probably be better fits culturally.
10-10-2020 11:38 AM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
HiddenDragon Offline
Hall of Famer
*

Posts: 11,922
Joined: May 2004
Reputation: 121
I Root For:
Location:

BlazerTalk AwardBlazerTalk Award
Post: #46
RE: How the Big XII and AAC would eventually merge
(10-10-2020 08:01 AM)goodknightfl Wrote:  
(10-08-2020 05:30 PM)IWokeUpLikeThis Wrote:  Anyone see Van Halen live?

quote of the day..

[Image: what-too-soon.jpg]
10-10-2020 11:53 AM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
jedclampett Offline
1st String
*

Posts: 2,189
Joined: Jul 2019
Reputation: 100
I Root For: Temple
Location:
Post: #47
RE: How the Big XII and AAC would eventually merge
(10-10-2020 11:38 AM)blazer-J Wrote:  I don't think we'll see any conferences go beyond 16 teams.


Under some scenarios I could see the ACC adding a Texas wing of TCU and Baylor if those two got stranded in a depleted B12. Or maybe adding TCU and Navy (football only to balance out ND).

The SEC will probably like to add two teams. Main targets would be Texas and OK.

Ok. If they get their way, how does it work out ...


1) For Texas?

2) For Oklahoma?

3) For their new rivals - - the other SEC schools?

4) For the SEC as a whole?

5) For college football fans?
10-10-2020 04:17 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
Rob3338 Offline
Bench Warmer
*

Posts: 129
Joined: Jun 2019
Reputation: 4
I Root For: uc
Location:
Post: #48
RE: How the Big XII and AAC would eventually merge
(10-08-2020 05:09 PM)Erictelevision Wrote:  I know I'm wasting my time saying this but: PLEASE don't fight the hypothetical! Anyway, here's the scenario:

1) B1G invite KU and UVa. Are told,"We need to bring along our 'little brother'." Big 10 agrees

2) PAC XII Invites OU and UT, are ALSO told "little bro comes along". PAC is like,"Cool with us, PAC-16!"

3) POTUS instructs SECDEF that AFA and Navy must go Indy

As a result:

1) What's left of the BIG XII joins the AAC

2) MWC stands pat

What, if anything, does the ACC do?



Big will NEVER invite a non AAU member. Even Nebraska could not get in the Big if they were still in the B12 and applied to the Big today.
10-11-2020 02:31 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
clpp01 Offline
Water Engineer
*

Posts: 78
Joined: Jan 2017
Reputation: 5
I Root For: Arizona
Location:
Post: #49
RE: How the Big XII and AAC would eventually merge
(10-11-2020 02:31 PM)Rob3338 Wrote:  
(10-08-2020 05:09 PM)Erictelevision Wrote:  I know I'm wasting my time saying this but: PLEASE don't fight the hypothetical! Anyway, here's the scenario:

1) B1G invite KU and UVa. Are told,"We need to bring along our 'little brother'." Big 10 agrees

2) PAC XII Invites OU and UT, are ALSO told "little bro comes along". PAC is like,"Cool with us, PAC-16!"

3) POTUS instructs SECDEF that AFA and Navy must go Indy

As a result:

1) What's left of the BIG XII joins the AAC

2) MWC stands pat

What, if anything, does the ACC do?



Big will NEVER invite a non AAU member. Even Nebraska could not get in the Big if they were still in the B12 and applied to the Big today.

Notre Dame and Oklahoma would disagree.
10-11-2020 02:41 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
jedclampett Offline
1st String
*

Posts: 2,189
Joined: Jul 2019
Reputation: 100
I Root For: Temple
Location:
Post: #50
RE: How the Big XII and AAC would eventually merge
(10-10-2020 11:38 AM)blazer-J Wrote:  The SEC will probably like to add two teams. Main targets would be Texas and OK.

If TX and OK go to the SEC, here's what happens:

1) For Texas?

Texas would often be a second-tier FB team and a third-tier BB team.

2) For Oklahoma?

The Sooners would have tougher competition (Alabama, LSU, Florida, Georgia, etc.) and would be eliminated from the FCS more often than they are now. In BB, they would play in fewer NCAA and more NIT tournaments.

3) For their new rivals - - the other SEC schools?

OK (and in some seasons, TX?), would push some SEC schools out of high quality bowl games, both by defeating them in conference games and taking good bowl bids.

More of the current mid-tier SEC programs would play in mediocre bowl games or fail to become bowl eligible. In addition, more of the current mid-tier BB SEC teams would end up in the NIT, rather than in the NCAA tournament, or would not be invited to either tournament.

Overall, most of the other SEC schools would have more to lose than they would have to gain from adding TX and OK, even if they could negotiate a per-school increase in their network revenues.

Many of them would send fewer teams to bowl games and NCAA tournaments. Attendance might increase, initially, but this could be followed by a decline in interest and attendance at the lower-tier schools, which would have more trouble qualifying for bowls and tournaments.


4) For the SEC as a whole?

Total media revenue for the conference would increase, but it's not clear that broadcasters would be able to maintain their current profits if they were to boost the annual payments per SEC school significantly.

There may be an upper-limit as the amount that the broadcasters would be willing to shell out on a per-school basis.

5) For college football fans across the nation?

There might be increased fan interest in the SEC, but it could be offset by decreased fan interest in the Big 12.

The P5 would split into two tiers in terms of FB winning %, viewership, media revenue, etc.: (1) SEC & B1G; (2) the rest.

Further concentration of talent in the SEC might be viewed negatively by some college football fans, especially those who aren't P5 fans.
10-11-2020 05:46 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
jedclampett Offline
1st String
*

Posts: 2,189
Joined: Jul 2019
Reputation: 100
I Root For: Temple
Location:
Post: #51
RE: How the Big XII and AAC would eventually merge
Apparently, no one expects the Big XII and AAC to merge at any point in the future.
10-16-2020 06:09 AM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
Erictelevision Online
1st String
*

Posts: 1,094
Joined: Jan 2016
Reputation: 10
I Root For: Uconn hoops
Location:
Post: #52
RE: How the Big XII and AAC would eventually merge
Jed: if the BIG XII South blue bloods bolt (and bring their buddies), would the AAC be worth using to rebuild?
(This post was last modified: 10-19-2020 02:58 AM by Erictelevision.)
10-16-2020 05:56 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
Kit-Cat Offline
Heisman
*

Posts: 6,405
Joined: Jun 2002
Reputation: 48
I Root For: Championships
Location:

CrappiesCrappiesCrappiesCrappiesCrappies
Post: #53
RE: How the Big XII and AAC would eventually merge
(10-08-2020 05:30 PM)IWokeUpLikeThis Wrote:  Anyone see Van Halen live?

What’s the best Van Halen concert of all-time? Tokyo Dome in ‘89?

Oddly the weekend you asked this I put some VH on for my girlfriend, mostly for comedy value who never watched the videos before.

-She's convinced DLR is gay but more interesting than Sammy Hagar.

-I'm convinced that Sammy Hagar has no real style and just rips off artists. He looks like Michael Bolton in the "when it's love" video.

-Never heard a full album of their music, not even online and don't see a reason why I would.
(This post was last modified: 10-16-2020 11:33 PM by Kit-Cat.)
10-16-2020 11:33 PM
Visit this user's website Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
jedclampett Offline
1st String
*

Posts: 2,189
Joined: Jul 2019
Reputation: 100
I Root For: Temple
Location:
Post: #54
RE: How the Big XII and AAC would eventually merge
(10-16-2020 05:56 PM)Erictelevision Wrote:  Jed: if the BIG XII Soith blue bloods bolt (and bring their buddies), would the AAC be worth using to rebuild?

The question isn't whether they would be worth inviting, because of course they would.

The question is how much they would be worth.

The worth of the invited AAC schools would most likely be at least $20 million per year, if they could help the Big XII to survive as a P5 conference.

As part of the deal, there might be a transitional period, like the Big Ten put in place when they added Rutgers (which doesn't receive the full per school-distributions for their first few years in the Big Ten).
(This post was last modified: 10-17-2020 09:39 AM by jedclampett.)
10-17-2020 06:44 AM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
Erictelevision Online
1st String
*

Posts: 1,094
Joined: Jan 2016
Reputation: 10
I Root For: Uconn hoops
Location:
Post: #55
RE: How the Big XII and AAC would eventually merge
On the assumption they ARE worth it, would that merger keep the Big XII in the P5 club? Does the American collapse?
10-19-2020 02:57 AM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
jedclampett Offline
1st String
*

Posts: 2,189
Joined: Jul 2019
Reputation: 100
I Root For: Temple
Location:
Post: #56
RE: How the Big XII and AAC would eventually merge
(10-19-2020 02:57 AM)Erictelevision Wrote:  On the assumption they ARE worth it, would that merger keep the Big XII in the P5 club? Does the American collapse?

On the assumption they ARE worth it, would that merger keep the Big XII in the P5 club? No.

Does the American collapse? Yes, and the universe goes out of existence.
(This post was last modified: 10-19-2020 03:59 PM by jedclampett.)
10-19-2020 03:05 AM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
Thiefery Offline
2nd String
*

Posts: 468
Joined: Feb 2020
Reputation: 16
I Root For: TEXAS
Location:
Post: #57
RE: How the Big XII and AAC would eventually merge
Let's say UT/ou move on.. Houston, SMU, Tulsa and Tulane Would probably be good additions, no? If Tech goes with UT as well.. You could add UTSA or TS St.. but that may be too Texas centric.. so they then probably add BYU or Colorado St.

KU/KSU/ISU/WV/TUL/OSU in the North
BU/TCU/SMU/UH/TULANE/Tech in the South

or if Tech also leaves with UT.. Tulane doesn't get the invite. Tulsa and OSU move to the south and BYU, CSU are added to the North?
10-19-2020 07:46 AM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
ChrisLords Offline
Heisman
*

Posts: 6,370
Joined: Jun 2007
Reputation: 125
I Root For: Virginia Tech
Location: Earth
Post: #58
RE: How the Big XII and AAC would eventually merge
(10-19-2020 07:46 AM)Thiefery Wrote:  Let's say UT/ou move on.. Houston, SMU, Tulsa and Tulane Would probably be good additions, no? If Tech goes with UT as well.. You could add UTSA or TS St.. but that may be too Texas centric.. so they then probably add BYU or Colorado St.

KU/KSU/ISU/WV/TUL/OSU in the North
BU/TCU/SMU/UH/TULANE/Tech in the South

or if Tech also leaves with UT.. Tulane doesn't get the invite. Tulsa and OSU move to the south and BYU, CSU are added to the North?

If only UT/OU move on, the Big12 still doesn't need any more Texas or Oklahoma schools. And Tulane is a competitive vacuum. So even though they bring a new state and a good media market, I think the B12 would look for more competitive schools in new markets.

South : TT, Baylor, TCU, OSU, Kansas, KS
National : ISU, WVU, Cincy, UCF, BYU, Boise St
10-19-2020 01:23 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
Wahoowa84 Offline
2nd String
*

Posts: 395
Joined: Oct 2017
Reputation: 63
I Root For: UVa
Location:
Post: #59
RE: How the Big XII and AAC would eventually merge
(10-19-2020 01:23 PM)ChrisLords Wrote:  
(10-19-2020 07:46 AM)Thiefery Wrote:  Let's say UT/ou move on.. Houston, SMU, Tulsa and Tulane Would probably be good additions, no? If Tech goes with UT as well.. You could add UTSA or TS St.. but that may be too Texas centric.. so they then probably add BYU or Colorado St.

KU/KSU/ISU/WV/TUL/OSU in the North
BU/TCU/SMU/UH/TULANE/Tech in the South

or if Tech also leaves with UT.. Tulane doesn't get the invite. Tulsa and OSU move to the south and BYU, CSU are added to the North?

If only UT/OU move on, the Big12 still doesn't need any more Texas or Oklahoma schools. And Tulane is a competitive vacuum. So even though they bring a new state and a good media market, I think the B12 would look for more competitive schools in new markets.

South : TT, Baylor, TCU, OSU, Kansas, KS
National : ISU, WVU, Cincy, UCF, BYU, Boise St

This!!

If OU/UT move on, the Big 12 solidifies its standing by acquiring the best football brands...regardless of geography. Cincy and UCF from the east (sorry AAC) and BYU and Boise State from the west. The core remaining Big 12 members are nicely located to rebuild and would have significant advantages over the AAC.
10-19-2020 01:37 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
jedclampett Offline
1st String
*

Posts: 2,189
Joined: Jul 2019
Reputation: 100
I Root For: Temple
Location:
Post: #60
RE: How the Big XII and AAC would eventually merge
(10-19-2020 01:37 PM)Wahoowa84 Wrote:  
(10-19-2020 01:23 PM)ChrisLords Wrote:  
(10-19-2020 07:46 AM)Thiefery Wrote:  Let's say UT/ou move on.. Houston, SMU, Tulsa and Tulane Would probably be good additions, no? If Tech goes with UT as well.. You could add UTSA or TS St.. but that may be too Texas centric.. so they then probably add BYU or Colorado St.

KU/KSU/ISU/WV/TUL/OSU in the North
BU/TCU/SMU/UH/TULANE/Tech in the South

or if Tech also leaves with UT.. Tulane doesn't get the invite. Tulsa and OSU move to the south and BYU, CSU are added to the North?

If only UT/OU move on, the Big12 still doesn't need any more Texas or Oklahoma schools. And Tulane is a competitive vacuum. So even though they bring a new state and a good media market, I think the B12 would look for more competitive schools in new markets.

South : TT, Baylor, TCU, OSU, Kansas, KS
National : ISU, WVU, Cincy, UCF, BYU, Boise St

This!!

If OU/UT move on, the Big 12 solidifies its standing by acquiring the best football brands...regardless of geography. Cincy and UCF from the east (sorry AAC) and BYU and Boise State from the west. The core remaining Big 12 members are nicely located to rebuild and would have significant advantages over the AAC.

True, but would any of the P5 conferences be able to earn more revenue, on a per-school basis, by adding UT and OU?
10-19-2020 04:13 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
Post Reply 




User(s) browsing this thread: 1 Guest(s)


Copyright © 2002-2020 Collegiate Sports Nation Bulletin Board System (CSNbbs), All Rights Reserved.
CSNbbs is an independent fan site and is in no way affiliated to the NCAA or any of the schools and conferences it represents.
This site monetizes links. FTC Disclosure.
We allow third-party companies to serve ads and/or collect certain anonymous information when you visit our web site. These companies may use non-personally identifiable information (e.g., click stream information, browser type, time and date, subject of advertisements clicked or scrolled over) during your visits to this and other Web sites in order to provide advertisements about goods and services likely to be of greater interest to you. These companies typically use a cookie or third party web beacon to collect this information. To learn more about this behavioral advertising practice or to opt-out of this type of advertising, you can visit http://www.networkadvertising.org.
Powered By MyBB, © 2002-2020 MyBB Group.