(10-16-2020 03:54 PM)GoldenWarrior11 Wrote:  I held this belief last summer and still hold it today in the Fall of 2020. If/when the AAC expands, it will come in the form of a full-member, and it will come from either C-USA or the Sun Belt. The national coast-to-coast monster conference did not come to fruition in 2010 because the value was not there from the networks, and - especially in the era of COVID - still is not there. The AAC already has a non-football member to balance Navy's inclusion, and none of the other service academies are coming along. I still view that the pod of schools that the AAC will pluck from includes: UAB, Georgia Southern, Old Dominion or, to a lesser extent, Appalachian State.

The AAC only expands when it is contracted by the realignment food chain: the Big 12 picks up someone and they pull from C-USA.

(10-16-2020 08:42 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  ESPN doesn’t stand to gain, only the (American Athletic) Conference, which is why we haven’t seen anything happen.

BYU, Boise St, and AFA could all earn their keep and wouldn’t hurt the per school payout. Army probably has enough national pull to do so too.

Actually (in a post-Covid19-world), ESPN actually would stand to gain a very substantial increase in viewership/revenue inthe long run, in the same way that the broadcasters of the original Big East gained when the Big East became a BCS/power conference.

The key to understanding this is that, whatever is in the conference's best interest - - from the standpoint of increased potential viewership - -, is also in the best interest of the conference's broadcasting network.

I think that it makes sense to trust Commissioner Aresco's statement that ESPN hasn't tried to push for expansion because they made an agreement not to try to influence the decision-making of the AAC.

The reason why nothing has happened yet, in terms of replacing UConn (which would be a necessary prerequisite for further expansion) is that the AAC Presidents are content with sitting on their hands and "pussyfooting around," like a bunch of Percy Dovetonsils and Casper Milquetoasts.

.




.

(10-17-2020 07:04 AM)jedclampett Wrote:  

(10-16-2020 08:42 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  ESPN doesn’t stand to gain, only the (American Athletic) Conference, which is why we haven’t seen anything happen.

BYU, Boise St, and AFA could all earn their keep and wouldn’t hurt the per school payout. Army probably has enough national pull to do so too.

Actually (in a post-Covid19-world), ESPN actually would stand to gain a very substantial increase in viewership/revenue inthe long run, in the same way that the broadcasters of the original Big East gained when the Big East became a BCS/power conference.

The key to understanding this is that, whatever is in the conference's best interest - - from the standpoint of increased potential viewership - -, is also in the best interest of the conference's broadcasting network.

I think that it makes sense to trust Commissioner Aresco's statement that ESPN hasn't tried to push for expansion because they made an agreement not to try to influence the decision-making of the AAC.

The reason why nothing has happened yet, in terms of replacing UConn (which would be a necessary prerequisite for further expansion) is that the AAC Presidents are content with sitting on their hands and "pussyfooting around," like a bunch of Percy Dovetonsils and Casper Milquetoasts.

... or alternatively, maybe they know a lot more than you know about what is valuable in college athletics, and have decided that there is no expansion candidate or group of candidates that are willing to join the AAC that would add any new value, much less could exponential increase the value to P5 level.

What a novel idea ....

I would think that the addition of VCU for all sports but football and Appalachian State for football only would 1. add value to the American in the eyes of ESPN and 2. actually be doable.

But I don't "think" like an ESPN exec so I might be clueless on this topic.

One thing I've come to embrace since the American was formed and as a fan of both Memphis and Cincinnati. I can't control what the American does (or doesn't do) in terms of expansion. And I can't reason with fans (whether on this board or in person here in Nashville) who cluelessly or knowingly and mockingly "penalize" Memphis and Cincy for being members of a non-power (i.e. "inferior") league. As such, my mindset is simple: Memphis and Cincy have done a very good job (despite many challenges) of building respectable "one-two punches" in football and men's basketball — sufficient enough to make some of the aforementioned fans even a bit jealous and defensive (though they would not admit it because most are too insecure to do so).

In short, I take comfort in knowing Memphis and Cincinnati are doing fairly well overall despite not being members of a power conference. I am very thankful for this solid success.

My focus is much more so on UM and UC and not on the American, just like my focus is more so on Indiana (and not the Big Ten), North Carolina (and not the ACC), DePaul (and not the Big East) and Vanderbilt (and not the SEC).

I have never been a "conference man" in the true sense. I've met many fans who are (particularly SEC fans), and that's fine for them — but it's just not my thing.

(10-17-2020 10:47 AM)bill dazzle Wrote:  I would think that the addition of VCU for all sports but football and Appalachian State for football only would 1. add value to the American in the eyes of ESPN and 2. actually be doable.

But I don't "think" like an ESPN exec so I might be clueless on this topic.

As Attackcoog has taken the lead in saying, every time a better TV deal is signed, it implies that the "price to add value" for a new member goes up.

When the AAC added Wichita State to bolster hoops five years ago, that price was $2 million a year. But now, for a VCU, it is at least $6 million per year. I do not think VCU hoops is worth $6 million per year.

But as you say, maybe decision-makers do not necessarily view things this way.

(10-17-2020 10:51 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(10-17-2020 10:47 AM)bill dazzle Wrote:  I would think that the addition of VCU for all sports but football and Appalachian State for football only would 1. add value to the American in the eyes of ESPN and 2. actually be doable.

But I don't "think" like an ESPN exec so I might be clueless on this topic.

As Attackcoog has taken the lead in saying, every time a better TV deal is signed, it implies that the "price to add value" for a new member goes up.

When the AAC added Wichita State to bolster hoops five years ago, that price was $2 million a year. But now, for a VCU, it is at least $6 million per year. I do not think VCU hoops is worth $6 million per year.

But as you say, maybe decision-makers do not necessarily view things this way.

VCU hoops specifically likely is not worth $6 million a year. But an AAC men's basketball group that is bolstered by the addition of a respected program (which VCU clearly is) might prove intriguing to ESPN execs.

It's all moot. I don't foresee the American adding two schools in a "hybrid model fashion."

(10-17-2020 10:54 AM)bill dazzle Wrote:  It's all moot. I don't foresee the American adding two schools in a "hybrid model fashion."

If Aresco and his bosses aren't willing to do so (like timid Casper Milquetoasts), it's not because the conference has been unwilling to do it in the past:

The last two schools to join the AAC (Navy and Wichita State) proved the conference's willingness to admit FB-only and BB-only schools?

(10-17-2020 12:29 PM)jedclampett Wrote:  

(10-17-2020 10:54 AM)bill dazzle Wrote:  It's all moot. I don't foresee the American adding two schools in a "hybrid model fashion."

If Aresco and his bosses aren't willing to do so (like timid Casper Milquetoasts), it's not because the conference has been unwilling to do it in the past:

The last two schools to join the AAC (Navy and Wichita State) proved the conference's willingness to admit FB-only and BB-only schools?

Big difference between then and now is that the AAC has a new TV deal. The cost of membership was effectively $2 million when Navy and WST joined - less for WST because they only joined for hoops - but now it's $6 million.

(10-17-2020 12:29 PM)jedclampett Wrote:  

(10-17-2020 10:54 AM)bill dazzle Wrote:  It's all moot. I don't foresee the American adding two schools in a "hybrid model fashion."

If Aresco and his bosses aren't willing to do so (like timid Casper Milquetoasts), it's not because the conference has been unwilling to do it in the past:

The last two schools to join the AAC (Navy and Wichita State) proved the conference's willingness to admit FB-only and BB-only schools?

See Quo's response above, Jed. His point is very valid. The dynamic has changed and, as such, I don't anticipate the VCU/AppState add, even though I would be very open to it.

(10-17-2020 04:00 PM)bill dazzle Wrote:  The dynamic has changed and, as such, I don't anticipate the VCU/AppState add, even though I would be very open to it.

It's very possible that UConn won't be replaced with App. State/VCU, and it's possible that the AAC won't have 12 FB/BB teams again for many years to come.

Indeed, the apparent passivity and lack of initiative by the AAC leadership suggests a nearly complete lack of concern about the loss of ~8% of their market share - - due to the departure of UConn - - or the risks that P5 conference realignments could pose to the conference.

Why? According to Commissioner Aresco, it's because the only schools that clearly meet the AAC's lofty criteria (e.g., BYU, Army FB) have shown no interest.

.

However, the disadvantages of moving forward without replacing UConn (diminished stature and ~8% reduction in viewership/market size) may become more apparent within the next year or two, particularly during basketball seasons. The effects may be exacerbated by the Covid-19 pandemic, and the concerns could grow as the first P5 broadcasting contract renewal deadlines begin to loom larger.

.

It is thus conceivable that the AAC leadership might become less restrictive, within the next few years, about the number of potential member schools that might be viewed as acceptable candidates to replace UConn.

Commissioner Aresco made it absolutely clear, after UConn's departure was announced, that the AAC would have no objections to adding a FB-only school, and the AAC has previously made it clear that it has no objections to adding a non-FB school (e.g., WSU).

If the AAC should decide to replace UConn with schools that have good FB and BB programs, there are a number of candidates that they could consider, including:

FB:

Tier 1: BYU, Army, Air Force, Boise, SDSU

Tier 2: App. St., Marshall, CSU, Louisiana, UAB, etc.

BB:

Tier 1: Dayton, URI, VCU, BYU, Utah St., SDSU

Tier 2: St. Louis, Davidson, Northern Iowa, ODU

(10-18-2020 04:36 AM)jedclampett Wrote:  

(10-17-2020 04:00 PM)bill dazzle Wrote:  The dynamic has changed and, as such, I don't anticipate the VCU/AppState add, even though I would be very open to it.

It's very possible that UConn won't be replaced with App. State/VCU, and it's possible that the AAC won't have 12 FB/BB teams again for many years to come.

Indeed, the apparent passivity and lack of initiative by the AAC leadership suggests a nearly complete lack of concern about the loss of ~8% of their market share - - due to the departure of UConn - - or the risks that P5 conference realignments could pose to the conference.

Why? According to Commissioner Aresco, it's because the only schools that clearly meet the AAC's lofty criteria (e.g., BYU, Army FB) have shown no interest.

.

However, the disadvantages of moving forward without replacing UConn (diminished stature and ~8% reduction in viewership/market size) may become more apparent within the next year or two, particularly during basketball seasons. The effects may be exacerbated by the Covid-19 pandemic, and the concerns could grow as the first P5 broadcasting contract renewal deadlines begin to loom larger.

.

It is thus conceivable that the AAC leadership might become less restrictive, within the next few years, about the number of potential member schools that might be viewed as acceptable candidates to replace UConn.

Commissioner Aresco made it absolutely clear, after UConn's departure was announced, that the AAC would have no objections to adding a FB-only school, and the AAC has previously made it clear that it has no objections to adding a non-FB school (e.g., WSU).

If the AAC should decide to replace UConn with schools that have good FB and BB programs, there are a number of candidates that they could consider, including:

FB:

Tier 1: BYU, Army, Air Force, Boise, SDSU

Tier 2: App. St., Marshall, CSU, Louisiana, UAB, etc.

BB:

Tier 1: Dayton, URI, VCU, BYU, Utah St., SDSU

Tier 2: St. Louis, Davidson, Northern Iowa, ODU

If the AAC is required to add a 12th member (related to the league football title game), the "hybrid" option is limited. The American would need to find two athletic programs receptive to this.

My gut feeling is that, for football only, Marshall and App State might be interested, as either would possibly be receptive to putting their other sports in some other league (assuming that's doable). UAB likely would not be interested in such an arrangement and I would not blame them as the Blazers need a fairly solid league home for their quality men's hoops program and C-USA provides that.

Of the athletic programs with no DI-A football and that would consider joining the American ... VCU makes the most sense, hands down. VCU would strongly consider the invite.

In short, the list of candidates to come on board via a hybrid model is limited. But, again, the combo of AppState and VCU would be very appealing on many levels. It would definitely grab some national sports headlines and give the AAC some pop.

As to "Marshall vs. AppState" (assuming both would be interested in this scenario), I would lean toward App. But Marshall would be a quality add for football only.

IF the AAC adds an all-sports member — and assuming it's not Colorado State (which would be rather strong) — the two that make the most sense on paper are UAB and ODU. The one that perhaps intrigues me the most is Buffalo. Other interesting options could be Toledo and Charlotte.

I'm with you, Jed, in terms of supporting the AAC adding to get to 12 in football and 12 in hoops. I would actually like 14 in both sports but I don't foresee that happening.

I would 99.999% guarantee you Marshall would take a FB only invite.

It nearly happened years ago in CUSA 1.0, and the rest of the sports already had a landing spot in the Horizon.

Then realignment happened anyway, and it became a full invite to CUSA 2.0.

There is a huge master plan happening on campus right now.
New baseball stadium, and a giant area of newly acquired property for university and research development.

Facilities will be there.

(10-18-2020 10:09 AM)ThunderDent Wrote:  I would 99.999% guarantee you Marshall would take a FB only invite.

It nearly happened years ago in CUSA 1.0, and the rest of the sports already had a landing spot in the Horizon.

Then realignment happened anyway, and it became a full invite to CUSA 2.0.

There is a huge master plan happening on campus right now.
New baseball stadium, and a giant area of newly acquired property for university and research development.

Facilities will be there.

Marshall as #12 in the AAC would be great IMO.

(10-18-2020 10:09 AM)ThunderDent Wrote:  I would 99.999% guarantee you Marshall would take a FB only invite.

It nearly happened years ago in CUSA 1.0, and the rest of the sports already had a landing spot in the Horizon.

Then realignment happened anyway, and it became a full invite to CUSA 2.0.

There is a huge master plan happening on campus right now.
New baseball stadium, and a giant area of newly acquired property for university and research development.

Facilities will be there.

I would be very open to a full invite for Marshall. Your football program is very credible and you have fans that care (for all your sports). I respect that.

Toledo/Marshall/Army - 14 football (Navy and Army FB only)
Adding these three would give the AAC more of a northern footprint with a closer travel proximity for Cincy, Navy, and Temple...
Toledo/ Marshall/ Buffalo or UMASS if Army stays independent...

(10-18-2020 10:09 AM)ThunderDent Wrote:  I would 99.999% guarantee you Marshall would take a FB only invite.

It nearly happened years ago in CUSA 1.0, and the rest of the sports already had a landing spot in the Horizon.

Then realignment happened anyway, and it became a full invite to CUSA 2.0.

There is a huge master plan happening on campus right now.
New baseball stadium, and a giant area of newly acquired property for university and research development.

Facilities will be there.

Marshall would be an attractive FB candidate right now, since they are currently in the Top 25 and have played in so many recent bowl games.

If you would like to see them considered as a potential replacement for UConn FB, your best bet would be to get together with some other Marshall FB fans and start up a fan-based movment to promote the idea on campus and among the school's alumni supporters.

What you would most need to do is to persuade Marshall's President (and AD) to contact AAC Commissioner Mike Aresco, expressing strong interest in joining the AAC. To have maximum impact, this should happen during, or soon after the FB season, and it should emphasize very strong interest (not just a mild inquiry) and a willingness to make commitments to make any necessary enhancements to facilities or whatever is pertinent.

In addition, it would be very helpful for Marshall's President & AD to put together a rationale emphasizing the positives that Marshall would bring to the table. This will probably have to be a relatively "hard sell," because a "soft sell" approach may not get a response.

Ideally, there would be some publicity when the time is right, so that there is some public pressure on the AAC to take the proposal seriously. One idea would be for Marshall FB fans to start going online (tweeting, possibly making short youtube videos to promote a move to the AAC). You could take a busload of Marshall fans to an AAC game (covid permitting) and cheer for the AAC team(s). That would create some positive responses from AAC fans. You could also come online and express your interest in forums like this one, and on the message boards of the AAC schools. Be creative!

Marshall's major advantage is their strong FB record through the years (e.g., 6 bowl games in the past 7 seasons; 3 AP Final Top 25 teams, 3 10+ win seasons since 2013).

This will have strong appeal since the AAC needs to have 4 or 5 top 25 teams each season to have a chance at achieving power conference status.

It should also be pointed out that Marshall is a nationally recognized football brand, and that Marshall FB would be a clear improvement over the former member that it would be replacing (UConn FB).

Another positive is that Marshall is located near the heart of the conference footprint. Adding Marshall would limit travel costs and travel time, and Marshall would be a good regional rival for AAC schools such as Cincinnati, Memphis, Temple, Navy, and ECU.

Moreover, Marshall would bolster the conference's presence in the nation's "mid-east" region, and would fill in a large regional gap between the the eastern (Temple, ECU, UCF, USF) and central (Cincy, Memphis, Tulane) schools.

If Marshall were to become a member, the AAC could go back to divisional play, with Marshall taking UConn's place in the East Division.

Marshall would help to ensure that the AAC East would have 3 solid FB programs, making the AAC East more competitive with the AAC West:

East: Cincy, UCF, Marshall, Temple, USF, & ECU

West: Memphis, SMU, Navy, Houston, Tulsa, Tulane,

.

Although Marshall's main disadvantage would be that it doesn't tap into a large regional TV market, this would be partially offset by the fact that Marshall has been able to generate enough national recognition through its many bowl games that it would probably be able to contribute to the conference's viewership numbers. This could be made clear by referring to the fact that Marshall has already had at least 1 million viewer games this season.

.

Remember - - the AAC executives aren't eager beavers about trying to replace UConn any time soon, so they will need to get a strong push in order to get off the dime, so to speak. The adage "no pussyfooting around" should apply.

It might help to remind them that the AAC has published a strategic plan, in which it plainly states that its goal is to become the nation's next power conference, but has utterly failed to take the first step to actually make this plan a reality.

Commissioner Aresco even came out and stated that he is not going to approach any school or actively try to replace UConn. He made it clear that nothing will happen unless schools with a solid resume pick up the phone and call him, schedule meetings with him, etc.

The key is to make Aresco take Marshall's proposal and supporting materials to the AAC Presidents for a formal vote, and to do it while the AAC Presidents are aware that Marshall is a Top 25 FB program. You've got to strike while the iron is hot.

As Aresenio Hall used to say: "Let's get busy!"

Updated ranking for OP teams:

Just an update from my original grouping, through week 8 (AP).
Again, my grouping is based on the best brands/ name teams (that encompass the country) for the conference to have rivalries that translate into fan support and most importantly, casual TV viewership.

East
——————
#9 Cincinnati 3-0
#22 Marshall 4-0
(#36) Army 5-1
Temple 1-1
UCF 2-2
Navy 3-2
East Carolina 1-3
USF 1-4


Central
—————
#16 SMU 5-0
(#26) Memphis 2-1
(#28) Tulsa 1-1
(#38) Air Force 1-0
Houston 1-1
Tulane 2-3
Southern Miss 1-3
New Mexico 0-0


West
—————
#12- BYU 5-0
Boise St 0-0
Colorado St 0-0
Wyoming 0-0
UNLV 0-0
Fresno St 0-0
San Diego St. 0-0
Hawaii 0-0

(10-18-2020 09:59 AM)bill dazzle Wrote:  

(10-18-2020 04:36 AM)jedclampett Wrote:  

(10-17-2020 04:00 PM)bill dazzle Wrote:  The dynamic has changed and, as such, I don't anticipate the VCU/AppState add, even though I would be very open to it.

It's very possible that UConn won't be replaced with App. State/VCU, and it's possible that the AAC won't have 12 FB/BB teams again for many years to come.

Indeed, the apparent passivity and lack of initiative by the AAC leadership suggests a nearly complete lack of concern about the loss of ~8% of their market share - - due to the departure of UConn - - or the risks that P5 conference realignments could pose to the conference.

Why? According to Commissioner Aresco, it's because the only schools that clearly meet the AAC's lofty criteria (e.g., BYU, Army FB) have shown no interest.

.

However, the disadvantages of moving forward without replacing UConn (diminished stature and ~8% reduction in viewership/market size) may become more apparent within the next year or two, particularly during basketball seasons. The effects may be exacerbated by the Covid-19 pandemic, and the concerns could grow as the first P5 broadcasting contract renewal deadlines begin to loom larger.

.

It is thus conceivable that the AAC leadership might become less restrictive, within the next few years, about the number of potential member schools that might be viewed as acceptable candidates to replace UConn.

Commissioner Aresco made it absolutely clear, after UConn's departure was announced, that the AAC would have no objections to adding a FB-only school, and the AAC has previously made it clear that it has no objections to adding a non-FB school (e.g., WSU).

If the AAC should decide to replace UConn with schools that have good FB and BB programs, there are a number of candidates that they could consider, including:

FB:

Tier 1: BYU, Army, Air Force, Boise, SDSU

Tier 2: App. St., Marshall, CSU, Louisiana, UAB, etc.

BB:

Tier 1: Dayton, URI, VCU, BYU, Utah St., SDSU

Tier 2: St. Louis, Davidson, Northern Iowa, ODU

If the AAC is required to add a 12th member (related to the league football title game), the "hybrid" option is limited. The American would need to find two athletic programs receptive to this.

My gut feeling is that, for football only, Marshall and App State might be interested, as either would possibly be receptive to putting their other sports in some other league (assuming that's doable). UAB likely would not be interested in such an arrangement and I would not blame them as the Blazers need a fairly solid league home for their quality men's hoops program and C-USA provides that.

Of the athletic programs with no DI-A football and that would consider joining the American ... VCU makes the most sense, hands down. VCU would strongly consider the invite.

In short, the list of candidates to come on board via a hybrid model is limited. But, again, the combo of AppState and VCU would be very appealing on many levels. It would definitely grab some national sports headlines and give the AAC some pop.

As to "Marshall vs. AppState" (assuming both would be interested in this scenario), I would lean toward App. But Marshall would be a quality add for football only.

IF the AAC adds an all-sports member — and assuming it's not Colorado State (which would be rather strong) — the two that make the most sense on paper are UAB and ODU. The one that perhaps intrigues me the most is Buffalo. Other interesting options could be Toledo and Charlotte.

I'm with you, Jed, in terms of supporting the AAC adding to get to 12 in football and 12 in hoops. I would actually like 14 in both sports but I don't foresee that happening.

I wouldn't count out Louisiana taking a FB only invite. Louisiana has top 25 baseball and top 25 softball programs that wouldn't have any problems building a Indy schedule. Basketball scheduling would be the only real issue.

Also, I set a revision to the original schedule in the Original Post.
Change comes in the last game of the year (interdivisional matchup)

There may be years this is a mundane game set for everyone. There may be years this is needed to sort the best 2 teams for the CCG week. The goal is 2 fold. To get the best matchups for the last game of season for TV, and to set the best 2 highest ranked teams in the title game.

1: Non-conference G4/P6
2: Non-conference P6
3: Non-conference P6
4: Interdivisional (Rotating)/fixed for SA
5: Divisional
6: Divisional
7: Divisional
8: Divisional
9: Divisional
10: Divisional
11: Divisional
12: *Interdivisional (set by conference office/TV for best matchup at end of year to set the following week Conference Champ game. This ensures there aren’t 3 undefeated teams in 3 divisions going into conf champ game, as well as setting highest ranked matchups for TV ratings, bowl selections, etc.)

**13: (away Hawaii game/extra home game)

AAC Champ Game: Top 2 Highest Rated Division Winners (Record/Playoff Committee Ranking)

(10-18-2020 05:23 PM)ThunderDent Wrote:  Updated ranking for OP teams:

Just an update from my original grouping, through week 8 (AP).
Again, my grouping is based on the best brands/ name teams (that encompass the country) for the conference to have rivalries that translate into fan support and most importantly, casual TV viewership.

East
——————
#9 Cincinnati 3-0
#22 Marshall 4-0
(#36) Army 5-1
Temple 1-1
UCF 2-2
Navy 3-2
East Carolina 1-3
USF 1-4


Central
—————
#16 SMU 5-0
(#26) Memphis 2-1
(#28) Tulsa 1-1
(#38) Air Force 1-0
Houston 1-1
Tulane 2-3
Southern Miss 1-3
New Mexico 0-0


West
—————
#12- BYU 5-0
Boise St 0-0
Colorado St 0-0
Wyoming 0-0
UNLV 0-0
Fresno St 0-0
San Diego St. 0-0
Hawaii 0-0

It's necessary to remember that the AAC Presidents are far too timid and risk-averse to take bold action, such as adding a Western division.

Rather than trying to figure out all the angles and permutations, it would be a much more effective use of your fans and admnistrators timei to simply focus on contacting Mike Aresco and making an all-out effort to get the AAC Presidents to take a vote on your proposal to join the conference.