So basically this thread is “add a few schools that make less than a $1M per year in their current contract to beef up the per team payout to the AAC and get better bowls.” Got it.

(10-12-2020 06:03 AM)jedclampett Wrote:  I'm glad that I decided to put snarkmeister "goodknight" on my ignore list.

lol

(10-11-2020 07:46 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  To be honest---I'd accept almost any AAC configuration if it resulted in some sort of AQ.

This I agree with, but I really don't see anything out there that will get us there.
Boise, Byu, and 1 more are the best possible, and I don't think #1 ESPN is going to pay 8 mil more per team not to say 15 mil. and I don't think Power 5 going to add that in. There is no good reason to do anything for now. Wait n see if they will make the 2 year waiver permanent.

(10-11-2020 07:46 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  To be honest---I'd accept almost any AAC configuration if it resulted in some sort of AQ.

Yes, and many posters - like me - have been responding to this thread the wrong way. We've commented that this configuration of teams would never be granted AQ/P status and we are correct, but the OP's premise was IF it was, would you take it, and of course the answer is a resounding "yes".

.

No one, of course, is possessed of God-like omniscience in the ongoing discussion about whether the AAC could become the equivalent of a power conference in the years or decades to come.

All any of us have is our opinions and the facts that we can cite in support of our opinions.

.

Some, such as Bill, are humble enough to realize it, no matter how firm one's opinion may be.

Others are so convinced by their reasoning that they can't imagine the possibility that they might turn out to be too pessimistic about the future of the conference.

(09-07-2020 12:21 AM)ThunderDent Wrote:  As stated above... Would you be on board with this AAC if it meant AQ status and true P6 conference affiliation? Guaranteed spot in one of the Peach, Cotton, or Fiesta Bowls annually.

Full bore ESPN contract for their content, and be in the $400-500M range.
Roughly $18-22M per school (depending on FB vs non, etc). CFP bowl cash and NCAA units on top of that.
Incorporate all the the remaining name brands/known schools with solid fan bases that draw eyes to TV sets. Restore rivalries and driveable games (we see how COVID has affected this), but with all of the plusses of a National brand and reach.
Have solid Basketball with VCU, Wichita, and Zags aboard.

Some schools will have protected cross div rivals.



———
American Athletic Conference

East
——————
1-Army (NY)*
2-Navy (MD)*
3-Temple (PA)
4-East Carolina (NC)
5-Marshall (WV)
6-Cincinnati (OH)
7-UCF (FL)
8-USF (FL)
*(VCU) (VA)

Central
—————
1-Memphis (TN)
2-Southern Miss (MS)
3-Tulane (LA)
4-Houston (TX)
5-SMU (TX)
6-Tulsa (OK)
7-New Mexico (NM)
8-Air Force (CO)
*(Wichita St) (KS)

West
—————
1-Colorado St (CO)
2-Wyoming (WY)
3-BYU (UT)
4-Boise St (ID)
5-UNLV (NV)
6-Fresno St (CA)
7-San Diego St. (CA)
8-Hawaii (HI)
*(Gonzaga) (WA)

——————
1: Non-conference G4/P6
2: Non-conference P6
3: Non-conference P6
4: Interdivisional (Rotating)/fixed for SA
5: Interdivisional (Rotating)/fixed for SA
6: Divisional
7: Divisional
8: Divisional
9: Divisional
10: Divisional
11: Divisional
12: Divisional
13: (away Hawaii game/extra home game)

AAC Champ Game: Top 2 Highest Rated Division Winners (Record/Playoff Committee Ranking)

———————
ESPN contract
Thursday prime time (ESPN/ESPN2/ESPNU)

Friday prime time (ESPN/ESPN2/ESPNU)

Sat Noon-Midnight
games across all the networks (ABC/ESPN/ESPN2/ESPNU/ESPN+)

Any game not on one of the ESPN networks, will be broadcast on ESPN+ internationally, and will have 3rd Tier access rights available to pick up on local networks.
—————————


Bowl Games:
——————-
Top Tier:
AQ spot/AAC Champ
*NY6 / Playoff
•Fiesta Bowl
•Cotton Bowl
•Peach Bowl

P6 Tier 1 Traditional Bowl Games:
(highest profile backup games selected first, if available, then all contractual Tier 1 spots filled thereafter. Based on geography, matchup, and ranking as much as possible for fan support).

•Liberty Bowl vs SEC/Big XII
(Liberty Bowl Stadium/Memphis, Tenn.)

•Cheez-It Tangerine Bowl vs ACC/Big XII
(Camping World Stadium/Orlando, Fla.)

•Copper Bowl (Cactus Bowl) vs Big XII/PAC-12 (Chase Field/Phoenix, Ariz.)

•Independence Bowl vs ACC/ND/PAC-12
(Independence Stadium/Shreveport, La.)

•Aloha (Hawaii) Bowl vs PAC-12
(Aloha Stadium/Honolulu, Hawaii)

•Military Bowl vs ACC/ND
(Navy-Marine Corp. Memorial Stadium/Annapolis, Md.)

•First Responder Bowl vs Big XII
(Cotton Bowl Stadium/Dallas, Texas)

•Fenway Bowl vs ACC/ND
(Fenway Park/Boston, Mass.)

•Gasparilla Bowl vs SEC
(Raymond James Stadium/Tampa, Fla.)

•Armed Forces Bowl vs Big XII/BigTen
(Amon G. Carter Stadium/Fort Worth, Texas)

•Birmingham Bowl vs SEC
(Legion Field/Birmingham, Ala.)

————
*Holiday Bowl vs BigTen/PAC-12 (backup)
(San Diego, Calif.)
*Sun Bowl vs PAC-12/ACC/ND (backup)
(El Paso, Texas)
*Las Vegas Bowl vs PAC-12/BigTen/SEC (backup)
(Las Vegas, Nev.)
*Red Box Bowl vs Big Ten/PAC-12 (backup)
(Santa Clara, Calif.)
————

After all Tier 1 games, and backup slots are filled, Tier 2 selections will take place if teams are still available.

Tier 2 Bowl Games:
•Myrtle Beach Bowl (Conway, S.C.)
•Boca Raton Bowl (Boca Raton, Fla.)
•New Orleans Bowl (New Orleans, La.)
•Cure Bowl (Orlando, Fla.)
•Frisco Bowl (Frisco, Texas)
•New Mexico Bowl (Albuquerque, N.M.)
•Idaho Potato Bowl (Boise, Idaho)

On one hand...if ESPN offers $18 - $22M per year per school (for 10+ years) for the media rights of this conference, then these schools would be foolish if they don’t participate. Note that I don’t even believe that the B12, nor ACC, nor PAC would necessarily command $18 - $22M per school with membership at 25 to 30 schools.

On the other hand...if there is a mechanism to prospectively identify the likely best 12 to 16 non-P5 CFB programs each year, then I believe that ESPN may be willing to fund that venture at $18 - $22M per school per year. In other words... if G5 programs are willing to have some form of “Champions League” / relegation system, then competition amongst the best G5 schools would have much better media value (and some bowl scheduling opportunity).

(10-12-2020 10:47 AM)jedclampett Wrote:  .

No one, of course, is possessed of God-like omniscience in the ongoing discussion about whether the AAC could become the equivalent of a power conference in the years or decades to come.

All any of us have is our opinions and the facts that we can cite in support of our opinions.

.

Some, such as Bill, are humble enough to realize it, no matter how firm one's opinion may be.

Others are so convinced by their reasoning that they can't imagine the possibility that they might turn out to be too pessimistic about the future of the conference.

You misspelled "optimistic".

(10-12-2020 10:47 AM)jedclampett Wrote:  .

No one, of course, is possessed of God-like omniscience in the ongoing discussion about whether the AAC could become the equivalent of a power conference in the years or decades to come.

All any of us have is our opinions and the facts that we can cite in support of our opinions.

.

Some, such as Bill, are humble enough to realize it, no matter how firm one's opinion may be.

Others are so convinced by their reasoning that they can't imagine the possibility that they might turn out to be too pessimistic about the future of the conference.

Thanks for the nice words, Jed. Very kind. You're a class act and I always enjoy reading your posts.

My take (and I've noted this many times on the board) is that there is basically no way the American (or some modification thereof) becomes a "power football conference" in the future unless the future definition of "power" is significantly changed. "Power" (in this future hypothetical) might, for example, be largely defined by sheer number of programs in a league, number of bowl tie-ins and/or typical number of teams in the Top 25 any given week.

Now "power" in hoops for the American is more attainable. It could potentially be garnered by a combination of 1. the addition of, say, four or more major to high-major programs (such as UNLV, BYU, Gonzaga, New Mexico, Saint Louis, Dayton, VCU, UMass, etc.) and 2. the elevation in quality of UCF, USF, Tulane and ECU. But the chances of both these things happening seems limited.

There’s De Jure Power Status and then there’s De Facto Power Status.

There are 5 conferences that have De Jure status but I think you could make a strong case that by adding the right 3-5 schools that the AAC could be a De Facto Power conference simply by virtue of the fact that their champ, even with 1-2 loses, would be better than anything the other 4 could produce.

This Power status only extends to access to the lucrative NY6 bowls. This enlarged conference would not earn nearly tv revenue that the poorest paid P5 gets.

Where the OP errs is in the size needed to attain de facto Power status. 14-16 football programs, not 24, should be plenty. A few key basketball additions like Gonzaga could perk things up a bit too if the schools were amenable.

(09-07-2020 05:42 AM)schmolik Wrote:  

(09-07-2020 04:49 AM)BraveKnight Wrote:  Not sure why USM and Marshall are added.

The OP is a Marshall fan so that's why Marshall's included. Southern Mississippi is odd considering Alabama Birmingham isn't included.

Alabama Birmingham isn't included because such school doesn't exist.

(10-12-2020 06:48 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  There’s De Jure Power Status and then there’s De Facto Power Status.

There are 5 conferences that have De Jure status but I think you could make a strong case that by adding the right 3-5 schools that the AAC could be a De Facto Power conference simply by virtue of the fact that their champ, even with 1-2 loses, would be better than anything the other 4 could produce.

This Power status only extends to access to the lucrative NY6 bowls. This enlarged conference would not earn nearly tv revenue that the poorest paid P5 gets.

Where the OP errs is in the size needed to attain de facto Power status. 14-16 football programs, not 24, should be plenty. A few key basketball additions like Gonzaga could perk things up a bit too if the schools were amenable.

This. Adding BYU and one or two others would get the job done. There would be no need to add New Mexico, Southern Miss or any of these others schools.

(10-13-2020 07:44 AM)CliftonAve Wrote:  

(10-12-2020 06:48 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  There’s De Jure Power Status and then there’s De Facto Power Status.

There are 5 conferences that have De Jure status but I think you could make a strong case that by adding the right 3-5 schools that the AAC could be a De Facto Power conference simply by virtue of the fact that their champ, even with 1-2 loses, would be better than anything the other 4 could produce.

This Power status only extends to access to the lucrative NY6 bowls. This enlarged conference would not earn nearly tv revenue that the poorest paid P5 gets.

Where the OP errs is in the size needed to attain de facto Power status. 14-16 football programs, not 24, should be plenty. A few key basketball additions like Gonzaga could perk things up a bit too if the schools were amenable.

This. Adding BYU and one or two others would get the job done. There would be no need to add New Mexico, Southern Miss or any of these others schools.

I have zero idea why anyone thinks that adding a bunch of schools currently getting paid $1m to $2m or even $6m (BYU) for their media rights to a bunch of schools getting paid $7m (the AAC) will result in all of them getting paid $20m.

That's the weirdest math I've ever seen.

(10-13-2020 09:28 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(10-13-2020 07:44 AM)CliftonAve Wrote:  

(10-12-2020 06:48 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  There’s De Jure Power Status and then there’s De Facto Power Status.

There are 5 conferences that have De Jure status but I think you could make a strong case that by adding the right 3-5 schools that the AAC could be a De Facto Power conference simply by virtue of the fact that their champ, even with 1-2 loses, would be better than anything the other 4 could produce.

This Power status only extends to access to the lucrative NY6 bowls. This enlarged conference would not earn nearly tv revenue that the poorest paid P5 gets.

Where the OP errs is in the size needed to attain de facto Power status. 14-16 football programs, not 24, should be plenty. A few key basketball additions like Gonzaga could perk things up a bit too if the schools were amenable.

This. Adding BYU and one or two others would get the job done. There would be no need to add New Mexico, Southern Miss or any of these others schools.

I have zero idea why anyone thinks that adding a bunch of schools currently getting paid $1m to $2m or even $6m (BYU) for their media rights to a bunch of schools getting paid $7m (the AAC) will result in all of them getting paid $20m.

That's the weirdest math I've ever seen.

Four Marks quo. You can't make something stronger by adding that which is weaker.

We will take Army, Air Force, BYU, Boise State, and Appalachian State if we wanted to go to a 16 team conference. You could add UNLV and San Diego State for 18 and maybe UAB and Southern Miss for 20 but that just gets too large

(10-12-2020 07:25 AM)CliftonAve Wrote:  So basically this thread is “add a few schools that make less than a $1M per year in their current contract to beef up the per team payout to the AAC and get better bowls.” Got it.

(10-13-2020 09:28 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(10-13-2020 07:44 AM)CliftonAve Wrote:  

(10-12-2020 06:48 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  There’s De Jure Power Status and then there’s De Facto Power Status.

There are 5 conferences that have De Jure status but I think you could make a strong case that by adding the right 3-5 schools that the AAC could be a De Facto Power conference simply by virtue of the fact that their champ, even with 1-2 loses, would be better than anything the other 4 could produce.

This Power status only extends to access to the lucrative NY6 bowls. This enlarged conference would not earn nearly tv revenue that the poorest paid P5 gets.

Where the OP errs is in the size needed to attain de facto Power status. 14-16 football programs, not 24, should be plenty. A few key basketball additions like Gonzaga could perk things up a bit too if the schools were amenable.

This. Adding BYU and one or two others would get the job done. There would be no need to add New Mexico, Southern Miss or any of these others schools.

I have zero idea why anyone thinks that adding a bunch of schools currently getting paid $1m to $2m or even $6m (BYU) for their media rights to a bunch of schools getting paid $7m (the AAC) will result in all of them getting paid $20m.

That's the weirdest math I've ever seen.

"Synergy"...

These are the 2 “big” AAC models I could see working:

14———
East: Temple, Cincinnati, ECU, UCF, USF, Memphis, Tulane
West: Navy*, Tulsa, SMU, Houston, AFA, BYU, Boise St
Non-fb: Wich St (West)

16———
East: Temple, Cincinnati, ECU, UCF, USF, Memphis, Tulane, Navy*
West: Tulsa, SMU, Houston, AFA, BYU, Boise St, Fresno St, San Diego St
Non-fb: Wich St (East)

You might be able to tweak the 16 team plan some—4 pods of 4, maybe add some basketball schools like Gonzaga.

At 16 I think you eliminate most cross division play in the Olympic sports with enough members to do so.

(10-13-2020 12:36 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  These are the 2 “big” AAC models I could see working:

14———
East: Temple, Cincinnati, ECU, UCF, USF, Memphis, Tulane
West: Navy*, Tulsa, SMU, Houston, AFA, BYU, Boise St
Non-fb: Wich St (West)

14 would be a lot more likely than 16.

BYU is the only potential FB member with a good BB program.

To have 14 members in all sports, there would probably have to be at least two non-FB members, perhaps VCU and Dayton.

P5 (Top 50) Quality FB Programs:

1. Cincinnati
2. BYU*
3. Memphis
4. UCF
5. Boise*
6. Navy
7. Air Force*
8. Houston
9. SMU


P5 (Major 7) Quality MBB Programs:

1. Cincinnati
2. Memphis
3. Houston
4. Wichita State
5. VCU*
6. Dayton*
7. BYU*

The AAC could receive as many as 7 (rather than max 4) NCAA bids.

(10-13-2020 12:36 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  These are the 2 “big” AAC models I could see working:

14———
East: Temple, Cincinnati, ECU, UCF, USF, Memphis, Tulane
West: Navy*, Tulsa, SMU, Houston, AFA, BYU, Boise St
Non-fb: Wich St (West)

16———
East: Temple, Cincinnati, ECU, UCF, USF, Memphis, Tulane, Navy*
West: Tulsa, SMU, Houston, AFA, BYU, Boise St, Fresno St, San Diego St
Non-fb: Wich St (East)

You might be able to tweak the 16 team plan some—4 pods of 4, maybe add some basketball schools like Gonzaga.

At 16 I think you eliminate most cross division play in the Olympic sports with enough members to do so.

If you're truly looking for a "best of the rest" conference, you're going to have to drop dead weight like ECU, Tulane, and Tulsa.

(10-13-2020 01:02 PM)jedclampett Wrote:  

(10-13-2020 12:36 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  These are the 2 “big” AAC models I could see working:

14———
East: Temple, Cincinnati, ECU, UCF, USF, Memphis, Tulane
West: Navy*, Tulsa, SMU, Houston, AFA, BYU, Boise St
Non-fb: Wich St (West)

14 would be a lot more likely than 16.

BYU is the only potential FB member with a good BB program.

To have 14 members in all sports, there would probably have to be at least two non-FB members, perhaps VCU and Dayton.

P5 (Top 50) Quality FB Programs:

1. Cincinnati
2. BYU*
3. Memphis
4. UCF
5. Boise*
6. Navy
7. Air Force*
8. Houston
9. SMU


P5 (Major 7) Quality MBB Programs:

1. Cincinnati
2. Memphis
3. Houston
4. Wichita State
5. VCU*
6. Dayton*
7. BYU*

The AAC could receive as many as 7 (rather than max 4) NCAA bids.

I would add Army to that FB list so we could get all the academies under one banner. Keep USF and Temple or ECU as well. That's what the AAC should have been.