(10-20-2020 08:52 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(10-20-2020 08:39 AM)MUsince96 Wrote:  

(10-20-2020 08:33 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(10-20-2020 08:07 AM)bill dazzle Wrote:  Adding Marshall for football only would be rather strong. For all other sports, I would be OK with that (but it would not be my first choice).

Regardless, Marshall continues to make progress with its athletics. I give full credit.

To me, the AAC mindset is one of "can this school help us in our bid to separate from the rest of the G5"?

There is a performance component to that, as part of that is dominating the NY6 bid. But IMO, Marshall doesn't really move the needle on that. Neither does App State or ULL or Southern Miss or any other C-USA or Sun Belt schools. And we don't even need to mention MAC schools.

Basically, if Boise or BYU pick up the phone, they are worth adding. Nobody else out there is.

I think we'd need a "Boise-type" run to be considered for the AAC. Multiple NY6 appearances; P5 wins. We've got the name/brand and butts in the seats they're probably looking for but on the field our results probably aren't worth splitting the pot a 12th way.

I think you are exactly right. And App State is in the same boat - strong loyal fan base, history of success, but just not that level of success needed.

Both of you make strong points. I agree.

No doubt that for football only and "needle movers" ... 1. BYU, 2. Boise and 3. Army. And as we know, none is interested. Marshall and AppState would be competitive from day one and would be quality adds. UAB would too. But the latter three don't offer the cache of the first three.

For hoops and other sports, the "needle mover" (at least to an extent) would be Dayton but that is a major longshot. VCU would be a very solid add. All the folks I talk to and who know college sports highly respect VCU and consider it a major program in a non-Power 6 league.

As we all agree, the options for the AAC are extremely limited.

(10-20-2020 08:52 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(10-20-2020 08:39 AM)MUsince96 Wrote:  

(10-20-2020 08:33 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(10-20-2020 08:07 AM)bill dazzle Wrote:  Adding Marshall for football only would be rather strong. For all other sports, I would be OK with that (but it would not be my first choice).

Regardless, Marshall continues to make progress with its athletics. I give full credit.

To me, the AAC mindset is one of "can this school help us in our bid to separate from the rest of the G5"?

There is a performance component to that, as part of that is dominating the NY6 bid. But IMO, Marshall doesn't really move the needle on that. Neither does App State or ULL or Southern Miss or any other C-USA or Sun Belt schools. And we don't even need to mention MAC schools.

Basically, if Boise or BYU pick up the phone, they are worth adding. Nobody else out there is.

I think we'd need a "Boise-type" run to be considered for the AAC. Multiple NY6 appearances; P5 wins. We've got the name/brand and butts in the seats they're probably looking for but on the field our results probably aren't worth splitting the pot a 12th way.

I think you are exactly right. And App State is in the same boat - strong loyal fan base, history of success, but just not that level of success needed.

Every year these threads pop up from each team's fans.

First, it was NIU during the Orange Bowl/Lynch years.

Then it was WMU during the Cotton Bowl/Fleck year.

Then it was App St recently.

Now, it's Marshall and Louisiana.

And every time it's the same outcome - nothing but hot air on message boards while nothing serious materializes and the wins fade away.

None of those schools fit the institutional profile AAC presidents are looking for. None eclipse even a 1% chance of AAC admission and would all be eliminated before the AAC determines its finalists.

(10-20-2020 09:18 AM)IWokeUpLikeThis Wrote:  

(10-20-2020 08:52 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(10-20-2020 08:39 AM)MUsince96 Wrote:  

(10-20-2020 08:33 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(10-20-2020 08:07 AM)bill dazzle Wrote:  Adding Marshall for football only would be rather strong. For all other sports, I would be OK with that (but it would not be my first choice).

Regardless, Marshall continues to make progress with its athletics. I give full credit.

To me, the AAC mindset is one of "can this school help us in our bid to separate from the rest of the G5"?

There is a performance component to that, as part of that is dominating the NY6 bid. But IMO, Marshall doesn't really move the needle on that. Neither does App State or ULL or Southern Miss or any other C-USA or Sun Belt schools. And we don't even need to mention MAC schools.

Basically, if Boise or BYU pick up the phone, they are worth adding. Nobody else out there is.

I think we'd need a "Boise-type" run to be considered for the AAC. Multiple NY6 appearances; P5 wins. We've got the name/brand and butts in the seats they're probably looking for but on the field our results probably aren't worth splitting the pot a 12th way.

I think you are exactly right. And App State is in the same boat - strong loyal fan base, history of success, but just not that level of success needed.

Every year these threads pop up from each team's fans.

First, it was NIU during the Orange Bowl/Lynch years.

Then it was WMU during the Cotton Bowl/Fleck year.

Then it was App St recently.

Now, it's Marshall and Louisiana.

And every time it's the same outcome - nothing but hot air on message boards while nothing serious materializes and the wins fade away.

None of those schools fit the institutional profile AAC presidents are looking for. None eclipse even a 1% chance of AAC admission and would all be eliminated before the AAC determines its finalists.

Hey, what are message boards for except for fans to vent their hot air about how their school should be boosted to a better place?

(10-20-2020 09:18 AM)IWokeUpLikeThis Wrote:  

(10-20-2020 08:52 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(10-20-2020 08:39 AM)MUsince96 Wrote:  

(10-20-2020 08:33 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(10-20-2020 08:07 AM)bill dazzle Wrote:  Adding Marshall for football only would be rather strong. For all other sports, I would be OK with that (but it would not be my first choice).

Regardless, Marshall continues to make progress with its athletics. I give full credit.

To me, the AAC mindset is one of "can this school help us in our bid to separate from the rest of the G5"?

There is a performance component to that, as part of that is dominating the NY6 bid. But IMO, Marshall doesn't really move the needle on that. Neither does App State or ULL or Southern Miss or any other C-USA or Sun Belt schools. And we don't even need to mention MAC schools.

Basically, if Boise or BYU pick up the phone, they are worth adding. Nobody else out there is.

I think we'd need a "Boise-type" run to be considered for the AAC. Multiple NY6 appearances; P5 wins. We've got the name/brand and butts in the seats they're probably looking for but on the field our results probably aren't worth splitting the pot a 12th way.

I think you are exactly right. And App State is in the same boat - strong loyal fan base, history of success, but just not that level of success needed.

None of those schools fit the institutional profile AAC presidents are looking for. None eclipse even a 1% chance of AAC admission and would all be eliminated before the AAC determines its finalists.

I do wonder what you mean by “institutional profile” exactly.

In Marshall’s case we’re a High-Research Doctoral University or R2.

We sit on an urban campus with a metro population of 350,000. Right next door is the Charleston metro area with another 208,000 people. That population puts our TV market at 70th out of 210.

And we’ve shared a conference with 7 of the current 12 AAC teams. So 7 have voted for us before in C-USA.

We may do better than a 1% chance.

(10-20-2020 09:18 AM)IWokeUpLikeThis Wrote:  

(10-20-2020 08:52 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(10-20-2020 08:39 AM)MUsince96 Wrote:  

(10-20-2020 08:33 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(10-20-2020 08:07 AM)bill dazzle Wrote:  Adding Marshall for football only would be rather strong. For all other sports, I would be OK with that (but it would not be my first choice).

Regardless, Marshall continues to make progress with its athletics. I give full credit.

To me, the AAC mindset is one of "can this school help us in our bid to separate from the rest of the G5"?

There is a performance component to that, as part of that is dominating the NY6 bid. But IMO, Marshall doesn't really move the needle on that. Neither does App State or ULL or Southern Miss or any other C-USA or Sun Belt schools. And we don't even need to mention MAC schools.

Basically, if Boise or BYU pick up the phone, they are worth adding. Nobody else out there is.

I think we'd need a "Boise-type" run to be considered for the AAC. Multiple NY6 appearances; P5 wins. We've got the name/brand and butts in the seats they're probably looking for but on the field our results probably aren't worth splitting the pot a 12th way.

I think you are exactly right. And App State is in the same boat - strong loyal fan base, history of success, but just not that level of success needed.

Every year these threads pop up from each team's fans.

First, it was NIU during the Orange Bowl/Lynch years.

Then it was WMU during the Cotton Bowl/Fleck year.

Then it was App St recently.

Now, it's Marshall and Louisiana.

And every time it's the same outcome - nothing but hot air on message boards while nothing serious materializes and the wins fade away.

None of those schools fit the institutional profile AAC presidents are looking for. None eclipse even a 1% chance of AAC admission and would all be eliminated before the AAC determines its finalists.

The institutional profile element you note is important. Notwithstanding Navy (an unusual animal, obviously), Wichita and East Carolina, AAC schools are located in cities with 1 million or more folks in their MSAs.

Toledo is located in a city but has about 650 million in the MSA.

The schools located in cities with large MSA populations and that likely would take the invite (and be institutional fits) are UAB, Buffalo, Georgia State and ODU. But the football programs at those schools don't draw as well (relatively speaking) as to Marshall and AppState.

UMass is a state flagship and I would actually be fine with having the university in the AAC, but that seems a longshot.

The institutional fit element continues to be huge in this. So if the AAC adds an all-sports member and wants to stay in the South, UAB, ODU and Georgia State would seemingly be the top fits.

Our basketball has improved with the hiring of Dantoni. You can ask Wichita St seeing as how we beat them in the first round of the NCAA tournament a few years ago.

With a CUSA basketball schedule we average 6k/game which is much better than the other schools mentioned and much better than some of the current AAC teams. With an AAC schedule we would easily average 7k/game.

(10-20-2020 05:42 PM)herdfan129 Wrote:  Our basketball has improved with the hiring of Dantoni. You can ask Wichita St seeing as how we beat them in the first round of the NCAA tournament a few years ago.

With a CUSA basketball schedule we average 6k/game which is much better than the other schools mentioned and much better than some of the current AAC teams. With an AAC schedule we would easily average 7k/game.

I agree with that. Marshall draws well for hoops. Full credit.

(10-20-2020 11:09 AM)MUsince96 Wrote:  

(10-20-2020 09:18 AM)IWokeUpLikeThis Wrote:  

(10-20-2020 08:52 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(10-20-2020 08:39 AM)MUsince96 Wrote:  

(10-20-2020 08:33 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  To me, the AAC mindset is one of "can this school help us in our bid to separate from the rest of the G5"?

There is a performance component to that, as part of that is dominating the NY6 bid. But IMO, Marshall doesn't really move the needle on that. Neither does App State or ULL or Southern Miss or any other C-USA or Sun Belt schools. And we don't even need to mention MAC schools.

Basically, if Boise or BYU pick up the phone, they are worth adding. Nobody else out there is.

I think we'd need a "Boise-type" run to be considered for the AAC. Multiple NY6 appearances; P5 wins. We've got the name/brand and butts in the seats they're probably looking for but on the field our results probably aren't worth splitting the pot a 12th way.

I think you are exactly right. And App State is in the same boat - strong loyal fan base, history of success, but just not that level of success needed.

None of those schools fit the institutional profile AAC presidents are looking for. None eclipse even a 1% chance of AAC admission and would all be eliminated before the AAC determines its finalists.

I do wonder what you mean by “institutional profile” exactly.

In Marshall’s case we’re a High-Research Doctoral University or R2.

We sit on an urban campus with a metro population of 350,000. Right next door is the Charleston metro area with another 208,000 people. That population puts our TV market at 70th out of 210.

And we’ve shared a conference with 7 of the current 12 AAC teams. So 7 have voted for us before in C-USA.

We may do better than a 1% chance.

Marshall would do fine in the AAC - competitively and fan support.

I just don’t think they have a chance in hell of getting in when you look at the urban makeup of the AAC and that those presidents want similar markets they can recruit high level athletes and students from. ECU is an exception because they were drawing 50k when invited.

If any CUSA/MAC/SBELT gets invited, I would bet my board membership it’ll be UAB, ODU, or to a lesser extent Rice. I wouldn’t entirely discount Buffalo or Georgia St just because one’s a flagship of NY and the other’s a big school in Atlanta, but would put their odds between 1-2%.

If it’s any of the 31 CUSA/MAC/SBELT schools other than those 5, I will terminate my account from this site. That’s my degree of confidence in how it plays out. If I’m wrong, feel free to bump me and I’ll stick to my word.

(10-20-2020 09:18 AM)IWokeUpLikeThis Wrote:  

(10-20-2020 08:52 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(10-20-2020 08:39 AM)MUsince96 Wrote:  

(10-20-2020 08:33 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(10-20-2020 08:07 AM)bill dazzle Wrote:  Adding Marshall for football only would be rather strong. For all other sports, I would be OK with that (but it would not be my first choice).

Regardless, Marshall continues to make progress with its athletics. I give full credit.

To me, the AAC mindset is one of "can this school help us in our bid to separate from the rest of the G5"?

There is a performance component to that, as part of that is dominating the NY6 bid. But IMO, Marshall doesn't really move the needle on that. Neither does App State or ULL or Southern Miss or any other C-USA or Sun Belt schools. And we don't even need to mention MAC schools.

Basically, if Boise or BYU pick up the phone, they are worth adding. Nobody else out there is.

I think we'd need a "Boise-type" run to be considered for the AAC. Multiple NY6 appearances; P5 wins. We've got the name/brand and butts in the seats they're probably looking for but on the field our results probably aren't worth splitting the pot a 12th way.

I think you are exactly right. And App State is in the same boat - strong loyal fan base, history of success, but just not that level of success needed.

Every year these threads pop up from each team's fans.

First, it was NIU during the Orange Bowl/Lynch years.

Then it was WMU during the Cotton Bowl/Fleck year.

Then it was App St recently.

Now, it's Marshall and Louisiana.

And every time it's the same outcome - nothing but hot air on message boards while nothing serious materializes and the wins fade away.

None of those schools fit the institutional profile AAC presidents are looking for. None eclipse even a 1% chance of AAC admission and would all be eliminated before the AAC determines its finalists.

That's not an accurate comparison, because it suggests that Marshall is just the latest "flash in the pan."

Nothing could be further from the truth.

Unlike all the other schools on your list, Marshall has had a very successful FBS football program, more seasons than not, over the past two decades.

Marshall has played in seven bowl games in the past nine seasons, has had 16 bowl-eligible teams in the past 23 seasons, and has played in 15 bowl games since 1997.

Marshall Bowl Games:

2019/12/23 Marshall 25 - Central Florida 48 L Gasparilla Bowl
2018/12/20 Marshall 38 - South Florida 20 W Gasparilla Bowl
2017/12/16 Marshall 31 - Colorado St 28 W New Mexico Bowl
2015/12/26 Marshall 16 - Connecticut 10 W St. Petersburg Bowl
2014/12/23 Marshall 52 - Northern Illinois 23 W Boca Raton Bowl
2013/12/27 Marshall 31 - Maryland 20 W Military Bowl
2011/12/20 Marshall 20 - Florida Intl 10 W Beef 'O' Brady's Bowl
2009/12/26 Marshall 21 - Ohio 17 W Little Caesars Pizza Bowl
2004/12/23 Marshall 14 - Cincinnati 32 L Fort Worth Bowl
2002/12/18 Marshall 38 - Louisville 15 W GMAC Bowl
2001/12/19 Marshall 64 - East Carolina 61 W OT GMAC Bowl
2000/12/27 Marshall 25 - Cincinnati 14 W Motor City Bowl
1999/12/27 Marshall 21 - BYU 3 W Motor City Bowl
1998/12/23 Marshall 48 - Louisville 29 W Motor City Bowl
1997/12/26 Marshall 31 - Mississippi 34 L Motor City Bowl

(10-21-2020 10:27 AM)jedclampett Wrote:  

(10-20-2020 09:18 AM)IWokeUpLikeThis Wrote:  

(10-20-2020 08:52 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(10-20-2020 08:39 AM)MUsince96 Wrote:  

(10-20-2020 08:33 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  To me, the AAC mindset is one of "can this school help us in our bid to separate from the rest of the G5"?

There is a performance component to that, as part of that is dominating the NY6 bid. But IMO, Marshall doesn't really move the needle on that. Neither does App State or ULL or Southern Miss or any other C-USA or Sun Belt schools. And we don't even need to mention MAC schools.

Basically, if Boise or BYU pick up the phone, they are worth adding. Nobody else out there is.

I think we'd need a "Boise-type" run to be considered for the AAC. Multiple NY6 appearances; P5 wins. We've got the name/brand and butts in the seats they're probably looking for but on the field our results probably aren't worth splitting the pot a 12th way.

I think you are exactly right. And App State is in the same boat - strong loyal fan base, history of success, but just not that level of success needed.

Every year these threads pop up from each team's fans.

First, it was NIU during the Orange Bowl/Lynch years.

Then it was WMU during the Cotton Bowl/Fleck year.

Then it was App St recently.

Now, it's Marshall and Louisiana.

And every time it's the same outcome - nothing but hot air on message boards while nothing serious materializes and the wins fade away.

None of those schools fit the institutional profile AAC presidents are looking for. None eclipse even a 1% chance of AAC admission and would all be eliminated before the AAC determines its finalists.

That's not an accurate comparison, because it suggests that Marshall is just the latest "flash in the pan."

Nothing could be further from the truth.

Unlike all the other schools on your list, Marshall has had a very successful FBS football program, more seasons than not, over the past two decades.

The problem for Marshall is that while they've been a steady low-grade "sizzle" in the pan, in the form of going 8-4 and winning minor bowl games, over the years, they've never actually been a "flash" in the pan, meaning having a Big Year that grabs everyone's attention, like NIU and WMU have had in making an NY6 bowl. They came close in 2014, but no dice.

If anything, I think it is better to have a "flash" year than to have several "sizzle" years. The latter just do not attract any upwards attention.

(10-21-2020 10:27 AM)jedclampett Wrote:  

(10-20-2020 09:18 AM)IWokeUpLikeThis Wrote:  

(10-20-2020 08:52 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(10-20-2020 08:39 AM)MUsince96 Wrote:  

(10-20-2020 08:33 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  To me, the AAC mindset is one of "can this school help us in our bid to separate from the rest of the G5"?

There is a performance component to that, as part of that is dominating the NY6 bid. But IMO, Marshall doesn't really move the needle on that. Neither does App State or ULL or Southern Miss or any other C-USA or Sun Belt schools. And we don't even need to mention MAC schools.

Basically, if Boise or BYU pick up the phone, they are worth adding.

"Worth adding" is any FB school that would replace UConn FB with a Tier 1 or Tier 2 FB program.

Marshall would meet that criterion. So would Air Force and Army.

I think we'd need a "Boise-type" run to be considered for the AAC. Multiple NY6 appearances; P5 wins. We've got the name/brand and butts in the seats they're probably looking for but on the field our results probably aren't worth splitting the pot a 12th way.

I think you are exactly right. And App State is in the same boat - strong loyal fan base, history of success, but just not that level of success needed.

Every year these threads pop up from each team's fans.

First, it was NIU during the Orange Bowl/Lynch years.

Then it was WMU during the Cotton Bowl/Fleck year.

Then it was App St recently.

Now, it's Marshall and Louisiana.

And every time it's the same outcome - nothing but hot air on message boards while nothing serious materializes and the wins fade away.

None of those schools fit the institutional profile AAC presidents are looking for. None eclipse even a 1% chance of AAC admission and would all be eliminated before the AAC determines its finalists.

That's not an accurate comparison, because it suggests that Marshall is just the latest "flash in the pan."

Nothing could be further from the truth.

Unlike all the other schools on your list, Marshall has had a very successful FBS football program, more seasons than not, over the past two decades.

Marshall has played in seven bowl games in the past nine seasons, has had 16 bowl-eligible teams in the past 23 seasons, and has played in 15 bowl games since 1997.

Marshall Bowl Games:

2019/12/23 Marshall 25 - Central Florida 48 L Gasparilla Bowl
2018/12/20 Marshall 38 - South Florida 20 W Gasparilla Bowl
2017/12/16 Marshall 31 - Colorado St 28 W New Mexico Bowl
2015/12/26 Marshall 16 - Connecticut 10 W St. Petersburg Bowl
2014/12/23 Marshall 52 - Northern Illinois 23 W Boca Raton Bowl
2013/12/27 Marshall 31 - Maryland 20 W Military Bowl
2011/12/20 Marshall 20 - Florida Intl 10 W Beef 'O' Brady's Bowl
2009/12/26 Marshall 21 - Ohio 17 W Little Caesars Pizza Bowl
2004/12/23 Marshall 14 - Cincinnati 32 L Fort Worth Bowl
2002/12/18 Marshall 38 - Louisville 15 W GMAC Bowl
2001/12/19 Marshall 64 - East Carolina 61 W OT GMAC Bowl
2000/12/27 Marshall 25 - Cincinnati 14 W Motor City Bowl
1999/12/27 Marshall 21 - BYU 3 W Motor City Bowl
1998/12/23 Marshall 48 - Louisville 29 W Motor City Bowl
1997/12/26 Marshall 31 - Mississippi 34 L Motor City Bowl

So, Marshall fans, are you going to lobby your President and Board to contact Commissioner Aresco and make their best case for a FB membership in the AAC?

The chances for success are greatest with a top 25-ranked FB program.

(10-21-2020 07:21 PM)jedclampett Wrote:  

(10-21-2020 10:27 AM)jedclampett Wrote:  

(10-20-2020 09:18 AM)IWokeUpLikeThis Wrote:  

(10-20-2020 08:52 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(10-20-2020 08:39 AM)MUsince96 Wrote:  "Worth adding" is any FB school that would replace UConn FB with a Tier 1 or Tier 2 FB program.

Marshall would meet that criterion. So would Air Force and Army.

I think we'd need a "Boise-type" run to be considered for the AAC. Multiple NY6 appearances; P5 wins. We've got the name/brand and butts in the seats they're probably looking for but on the field our results probably aren't worth splitting the pot a 12th way.

I think you are exactly right. And App State is in the same boat - strong loyal fan base, history of success, but just not that level of success needed.

Every year these threads pop up from each team's fans.

First, it was NIU during the Orange Bowl/Lynch years.

Then it was WMU during the Cotton Bowl/Fleck year.

Then it was App St recently.

Now, it's Marshall and Louisiana.

And every time it's the same outcome - nothing but hot air on message boards while nothing serious materializes and the wins fade away.

None of those schools fit the institutional profile AAC presidents are looking for. None eclipse even a 1% chance of AAC admission and would all be eliminated before the AAC determines its finalists.

That's not an accurate comparison, because it suggests that Marshall is just the latest "flash in the pan."

Nothing could be further from the truth.

Unlike all the other schools on your list, Marshall has had a very successful FBS football program, more seasons than not, over the past two decades.

Marshall has played in seven bowl games in the past nine seasons, has had 16 bowl-eligible teams in the past 23 seasons, and has played in 15 bowl games since 1997.

Marshall Bowl Games:

2019/12/23 Marshall 25 - Central Florida 48 L Gasparilla Bowl
2018/12/20 Marshall 38 - South Florida 20 W Gasparilla Bowl
2017/12/16 Marshall 31 - Colorado St 28 W New Mexico Bowl
2015/12/26 Marshall 16 - Connecticut 10 W St. Petersburg Bowl
2014/12/23 Marshall 52 - Northern Illinois 23 W Boca Raton Bowl
2013/12/27 Marshall 31 - Maryland 20 W Military Bowl
2011/12/20 Marshall 20 - Florida Intl 10 W Beef 'O' Brady's Bowl
2009/12/26 Marshall 21 - Ohio 17 W Little Caesars Pizza Bowl
2004/12/23 Marshall 14 - Cincinnati 32 L Fort Worth Bowl
2002/12/18 Marshall 38 - Louisville 15 W GMAC Bowl
2001/12/19 Marshall 64 - East Carolina 61 W OT GMAC Bowl
2000/12/27 Marshall 25 - Cincinnati 14 W Motor City Bowl
1999/12/27 Marshall 21 - BYU 3 W Motor City Bowl
1998/12/23 Marshall 48 - Louisville 29 W Motor City Bowl
1997/12/26 Marshall 31 - Mississippi 34 L Motor City Bowl

I'm not sure...why you're re-posting this for a second time?

Anyway, NIU and Louisiana have had 7 bowls in 9 seasons, like Marshall.
NIU and App St (FBS only) have had a better winning percentage in those 9 years.
App St has been bowl eligible each year it's been FBS.
NIU has been bowl eligible 17 of 23 seasons (as opposed to Marshall's 16).


Not that any of those things matter in the grand scheme -- it would take sustaining a Boise-level program for Marshall or any of those schools to win an AAC presidents' vote -- but just noting your evidence doesn't add up.

(10-22-2020 01:25 PM)IWokeUpLikeThis Wrote:  NIU and Louisiana have had 7 bowls in 9 seasons, like Marshall.

App St has been bowl eligible each year it's been FBS.

It's true that none of these teams has had Boise State's track record of success. However, BYU isn't the AAC's only other option for a FB school that would be strong enough to improve the stature of the AAC.

As you have helpfully pointed out, Marshall is by no means the only school in or near the AAC's geographical footprint that has had quite an impressive track record of success during the past decade.

In doing so, you have helped to refute these skeptical words, posted above:

Every year these threads pop up from each team's fans.
First, it was NIU during the Orange Bowl/Lynch years.
Then it was WMU during the Cotton Bowl/Fleck year.
Then it was App St recently.
Now, it's Marshall and Louisiana.

It almost reads like a poem, which might be titled "Flashes in a Pan."

However, even when BYU and Army are excluded from consideration, there are at least seven redoubtable contenders for an AAC FB membership:

1. San Diego State has won an average of 9 games per season since 2010 - - including 10+ wins in 2015, 2016, 2018, and 2019 - - and has won 3 of their last 4 bowl games. They have won nearly as many (49) games since 2015 as Boise State has won (51), and have had top 25 ranked FB teams in 2016, 2017, and 2019.

2. App State has won an average of 10.2 games per season since 2014, and has won all 5 of their bowl games. Moreover, they had a top 25 team in 2018, are currently ranked #30 in the Sagarin ratings, and finished in the Final AP Top 25 in 2019.

3. Marshall has won an average of 8.7 games per season since 2013, 7 of their last 8 bowl games, and currently has a top 25 ranked (4-0) team.

4. UAB has won an average of 9 games per season since 2014 and
is currently #35 (4-1) in the AP rankings.

5. Arkansas State has won an average of 8.3 games per season since 2011 and has played in nine consecutive bowl games since 2011

6. Louisiana-Lafayette finished 11-3 last season and is currently #32 in the AP rankings. The Cajuns program is resurgent, with two consecutive bowl-qualifying teams, has had 5 seasons with 9+ wins since 2011, and has won 6 of their last 8 bowl games.

7. Air Force finished 11-2 last season and was the #22 ranked team in the Final AP Top 25 in 2019. They had outstanding 10-win seasons in 2014 and 2016, and have won 3 of their last 4 bowl games. Air Force is currently #38 in the AP rankings.

.

Most of these schools would be likely to receive strong consideration from the AAC if they were to approach Commissioner Aresco and petition for membership in the American Athletic Conference.

The strongest contenders, based on cumulative winning percentages, nationally-ranked teams, bowl records, and nationwide recognition (i.e., nationally recognized "brands") are perhaps most likely to be San Diego State, Air Force, Appalachian State, and Marshall.

.

NOTE: Although NIU had tremendous success between 2010 and 2014, they haven't won more than 8 games since the 2014 season and they've lost 8 of their last 10 bowl games.

(10-22-2020 01:25 PM)IWokeUpLikeThis Wrote:  

(10-21-2020 07:21 PM)jedclampett Wrote:  

(10-21-2020 10:27 AM)jedclampett Wrote:  

(10-20-2020 09:18 AM)IWokeUpLikeThis Wrote:  

(10-20-2020 08:52 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  I think you are exactly right. And App State is in the same boat - strong loyal fan base, history of success, but just not that level of success needed.

Every year these threads pop up from each team's fans.

First, it was NIU during the Orange Bowl/Lynch years.

Then it was WMU during the Cotton Bowl/Fleck year.

Then it was App St recently.

Now, it's Marshall and Louisiana.

And every time it's the same outcome - nothing but hot air on message boards while nothing serious materializes and the wins fade away.

None of those schools fit the institutional profile AAC presidents are looking for. None eclipse even a 1% chance of AAC admission and would all be eliminated before the AAC determines its finalists.

That's not an accurate comparison, because it suggests that Marshall is just the latest "flash in the pan."

Nothing could be further from the truth.

Unlike all the other schools on your list, Marshall has had a very successful FBS football program, more seasons than not, over the past two decades.

Marshall has played in seven bowl games in the past nine seasons, has had 16 bowl-eligible teams in the past 23 seasons, and has played in 15 bowl games since 1997.

Marshall Bowl Games:

2019/12/23 Marshall 25 - Central Florida 48 L Gasparilla Bowl
2018/12/20 Marshall 38 - South Florida 20 W Gasparilla Bowl
2017/12/16 Marshall 31 - Colorado St 28 W New Mexico Bowl
2015/12/26 Marshall 16 - Connecticut 10 W St. Petersburg Bowl
2014/12/23 Marshall 52 - Northern Illinois 23 W Boca Raton Bowl
2013/12/27 Marshall 31 - Maryland 20 W Military Bowl
2011/12/20 Marshall 20 - Florida Intl 10 W Beef 'O' Brady's Bowl
2009/12/26 Marshall 21 - Ohio 17 W Little Caesars Pizza Bowl
2004/12/23 Marshall 14 - Cincinnati 32 L Fort Worth Bowl
2002/12/18 Marshall 38 - Louisville 15 W GMAC Bowl
2001/12/19 Marshall 64 - East Carolina 61 W OT GMAC Bowl
2000/12/27 Marshall 25 - Cincinnati 14 W Motor City Bowl
1999/12/27 Marshall 21 - BYU 3 W Motor City Bowl
1998/12/23 Marshall 48 - Louisville 29 W Motor City Bowl
1997/12/26 Marshall 31 - Mississippi 34 L Motor City Bowl

I'm not sure...why you're re-posting this for a second time?

Anyway, NIU and Louisiana have had 7 bowls in 9 seasons, like Marshall.
NIU and App St (FBS only) have had a better winning percentage in those 9 years.
App St has been bowl eligible each year it's been FBS.
NIU has been bowl eligible 17 of 23 seasons (as opposed to Marshall's 16).


Not that any of those things matter in the grand scheme -- it would take sustaining a Boise-level program for Marshall or any of those schools to win an AAC presidents' vote -- but just noting your evidence doesn't add up.

Please don't try to compare NIU's football program to Marshall. There's no comparison here.

(10-22-2020 09:20 PM)herdfan129 Wrote:  Please don't try to compare NIU's football program to Marshall. There's no comparison here.

They're actually quite comparable, with a slight edge to NIU. If you look at their Saragin ratings over the past 10 years and take an average weighted toward the present, NIU comes out with 65.86 and Marshall with 65.22. If we take an unweighted 10-year average, NIU is at 68.49 and Marshall is at 65.53.

2019 Finances

Ticket Sales

Marshall: $3,567,444

NIU: $736,122


Contributions:

Marshall: $3,865,412

NIU: $2,321,349


RIGHTS / LICENSING

Marshall: $5,761,573

NIU: $4,562,643

The only year we have played recently was 2014 when we were both conference champs. Marshall won 52-23.


2019 Football Attendance

Marshall- 23,190

NIU- 8,518


Just for the heck of it let's compare basketball attendance for last year, 2019.

Marshall- 6,065

NIU- 1,083


We won't get in to Top 25 rankings, Top 10 rankings, Heisman Finalists, Bowl Wins, Facilities, etc. Once again, there is no comparison in terms of actual programs.

(10-22-2020 09:42 PM)herdfan129 Wrote:  2019 Finances

Ticket Sales

Marshall: $3,567,444

NIU: $736,122


Contributions:

Marshall: $3,865,412

NIU: $2,321,349


RIGHTS / LICENSING

Marshall: $5,761,573

NIU: $4,562,643

The only year we have played recently was 2014 when we were both conference champs. Marshall won 52-23.


2019 Football Attendance

Marshall- 23,190

NIU- 8,518


Just for the heck of it let's compare basketball attendance for last year, 2019.

Marshall- 6,065

NIU- 1,083

I’m aware of/knew all this. You’re not getting an argument from me on any financial/fan support stuff. Of course Marshall is the better program in all off the field metrics.

If you look at the post I responded to, this is what it said:

jedclampett Wrote:Unlike all the other schools on your list, Marshall has had a very successful FBS football program, more seasons than not, over the past two decades.

Marshall has played in seven bowl games in the past nine seasons, has had 16 bowl-eligible teams in the past 23 seasons, and has played in 15 bowl games since 1997.

Of which all these points are negated when compared to NIU.

Hence my response:

IWokeUpLikeThis Wrote:NIU and Louisiana have had 7 bowls in 9 seasons, like Marshall.
NIU and App St (FBS only) have had a better winning percentage in those 9 years.
App St has been bowl eligible each year it's been FBS.
NIU has been bowl eligible 17 of 23 seasons (as opposed to Marshall's 16).

The stuff you’re posting isn’t what was being discussed. You’re arguing against points that weren’t made. I’m aware of/agree with the off-field metrics quoted.

The nexus of my post was correcting the factual errors.

I dunno, Marshall football may have the edge in some off-the-field metrics, but ultimately NIU football ends up with a comparable or slightly better overall on-the-field performance. What does that say?

(10-22-2020 09:57 PM)IWokeUpLikeThis Wrote:  

(10-22-2020 09:42 PM)herdfan129 Wrote:  2019 Finances

Ticket Sales

Marshall: $3,567,444

NIU: $736,122


Contributions:

Marshall: $3,865,412

NIU: $2,321,349


RIGHTS / LICENSING

Marshall: $5,761,573

NIU: $4,562,643

The only year we have played recently was 2014 when we were both conference champs. Marshall won 52-23.


2019 Football Attendance

Marshall- 23,190

NIU- 8,518


Just for the heck of it let's compare basketball attendance for last year, 2019.

Marshall- 6,065

NIU- 1,083

I’m aware of/knew all this. You’re not getting an argument from me on any financial/fan support stuff. Of course Marshall is the better program in all off the field metrics.

If you look at the post I responded to, this is what it said:

jedclampett Wrote:Unlike all the other schools on your list, Marshall has had a very successful FBS football program, more seasons than not, over the past two decades.

Marshall has played in seven bowl games in the past nine seasons, has had 16 bowl-eligible teams in the past 23 seasons, and has played in 15 bowl games since 1997.

Of which all these points are negated when compared to NIU.

Only partially negated, I would argue, because, while NIU had tremendous success between 2010 and 2014, they haven't won more than 8 games per season since 2014, and they've lost 8 of their last 10 bowl games.

NIU has certainly had a good MAC program through the past decade plus, but probably not quite good enough for the AAC, though they would tap into the huge Chicago area viewership.

For that matter, I'm not sure that any MAC school currently has an AAC quality FB program. I had been in favor of Buffalo after their 10 win season in 2018, but now realize that Buffalo's record doesn't even compare with the least qualified programs among the those listed above (e.g., UAB, Arkansas State).