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Would you do an AAC like this for AQ?
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BullsFanInTX Offline
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Post: #21
RE: Would you do an AAC like this for AQ?
(09-07-2020 11:14 AM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  How about this? A football-only FBS league (which I know is currently against the rules).

Best of the Rest Conference
Pod 1: Cincinnati, Temple, Toledo, Western Michigan
Pod 2: Appalachian State, Central Florida, Memphis, South Florida
Pod 3: Air Force, Army, Houston, Navy
Pod 4: Boise State, BYU, Utah State, San Diego State

Good idea. Not sure Toledo and WMU are the best options, though.
09-07-2020 11:32 AM
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ken d Online
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Post: #22
RE: Would you do an AAC like this for AQ?
(09-07-2020 11:30 AM)BullsFanInTX Wrote:  I don't hate it. I'd trim off a little fat and go more with a best of the rest conference of 16. Two divisions of 8, with winner guaranteed a NY6 bowl.

11 current AAC teams + the obvious choices

BYU
Boise St.
Army
Air Force
(Pick one - ODU, USM, Marshall, SDSU, etc.)

SDSU is probably the best one, but they're so far out of footprint.

No more so than Boise and BYU. One problem with trying to include the best teams from the west is that there need to be enough of them to make travel acceptable - especially for Olympic sports. I would consider a 16 team conference which takes the top 7 AAC teams + Army for the eastern division and the top 7 MWC teams + BYU for the western division.

Listed in order of their 10 year average Sagarin ratings that gives you:

East: UCF, Houston, Navy, Cincinnati, Temple, Memphis, USF and Army
West: Boise, BYU, San Diego St, Utah St, AFA, Fresno, Nevada and Colorado St

You still get all three service academies and virtually all CFP contenders in a single conference. Not sure you could do any better than the $8 million per team the AAC gets, but maybe you could match it.
(This post was last modified: 09-07-2020 12:05 PM by ken d.)
09-07-2020 11:45 AM
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quo vadis Online
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Post: #23
RE: Would you do an AAC like this for AQ?
(09-07-2020 11:04 AM)ThunderDent Wrote:  In many ways, Southern Miss and Marshall both had the wind knocked out of their sails when they were left behind. I’d go so far to say the 2 most “storied” and name programs in CUSA. Lots of FB history there.
Southern Miss has a pretty decent following and is respected.

IIRC, Marshall has had some good teams the past 5-6 years, weren't they even in the conversation for the G5-NY6 spot one year?

But USM, I agree. They went from winning 12 games in 2011, including a huge upset of a nationally-ballyhooed Houston team to win the C-USA title, to winning like one game the next three years or something.

It was like they got the Death Penalty during 2012. I still to this day have no idea what caused that enormous collapse.
(This post was last modified: 09-07-2020 12:37 PM by quo vadis.)
09-07-2020 12:37 PM
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colohank Offline
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Post: #24
RE: Would you do an AAC like this for AQ?
In addition to the above, we might as well include all of those state flagships from the populous northeast, perennial football powerhouses like Maine, Vermont, New Hampshire, Rhode Island, and UMass (UConn has opted voluntarily out and loves its new home). Heck, throw Buffalo in the mix, too. Then rename the conference: Biggest GeeFive.
09-07-2020 12:42 PM
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ken d Online
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Post: #25
RE: Would you do an AAC like this for AQ?
(09-07-2020 12:37 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(09-07-2020 11:04 AM)ThunderDent Wrote:  In many ways, Southern Miss and Marshall both had the wind knocked out of their sails when they were left behind. I’d go so far to say the 2 most “storied” and name programs in CUSA. Lots of FB history there.
Southern Miss has a pretty decent following and is respected.

IIRC, Marshall has had some good teams the past 5-6 years, weren't they even in the conversation for the G5-NY6 spot one year?

But USM, I agree. They went from winning 12 games in 2011, including a huge upset of a nationally-ballyhooed Houston team to win the C-USA title, to winning like one game the next three years or something.

It was like they got the Death Penalty during 2012. I still to this day have no idea what caused that enormous collapse.

IIRC, when Larry Fedora left to coach UNC he left the cupboard pretty bare. He left it bare at UNC also, but didn't have another school to bail out to.
09-07-2020 12:43 PM
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IWokeUpLikeThis Offline
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Post: #26
RE: Would you do an AAC like this for AQ?
This doesn’t reflect who university presidents would add as it doesn’t consider the criteria university presidents look at in expansion:
[Image: fmAcOzu_d.jpg?maxwidth=640&shape...ity=medium]

University presidents consider budgets, academics, and markets. Budgets alone would cross off Marshall and Southern Miss. Throw in Hattiesburg and Huntington don’t add valuable recruiting territory for athletes or students and both schools trail academically in UG (USNWR) and PG (ARWU), and this combo is DOA.

Budgets
ODU 44.3 M
UB 40.8 M
GSU 39.5 M
UAB 35.7 M
Marshall 30.6 M
USM 24.2 M

Academics (USNWR)
Rice 17 + AAU
UB 79 + AAU
UAB 166 + 95 ARWU
GSU 211 + 115 ARWU
ODU 263 + 176 ARWU
USM 293
Marshall 293

Markets (DMA)
GSU 10
ODU 42
UAB 44
UB 52
Marshall 74
USM 167

Marshall and Southern Miss would get eliminated in the expansion process fairly early. Budgets aren’t in the ballpark. You can’t recruit those towns for athletes or students. Academics aren’t in the ballpark. And neither has a Boise-like brand that can overcome all of that.

UAB, ODU, Rice, Buffalo, & Georgia St would get a look in the eastern/central timezones.
09-07-2020 12:59 PM
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ThunderDent Offline
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Post: #27
RE: Would you do an AAC like this for AQ?
The only problem with that is no one is going to care or put eyeballs on say, Georgia State. Even if they are in the biggest market. Markets matter very little in this.

That’s the whole point of my original post. It’s about brand recognition. And while, yes the university presidents make the final call, it’s money and TV contracts that will drive it. ESPN would say who would draw the eyeballs of the casual fan and make their suggestion, and how much they’d pay for said teams.
We are all kidding ourselves if we think academics and market matter at this level.

This isn’t the BigTen elite here having all the power to pick and chose who goes where. And even then, they picked Maryland and Rutgers based on monetary reasons first and foremost. They were picked on who would add more households to the BTN to get more cash.

We’re kidding ourselves thinking it’s about more than cash flow.
ESPN is the leader, with the greatest sharehold, and the most power.
And the market (meaning their high brass, as well as any other bidders), will tell you how much your teams are worth.

If you get relegated to CBSSN or god forbid FB, you’ll see how quickly that dwindles.

You can have the best team in the country, and if no one sees you play (easily watchable/not having to sign into password internet subscriptions to watch) then its like it never happened.

Exposure of the brand for football on ESPN or major network TV does more for the university as a whole (academic/student recruitment) than anything.

Academic standing, endowment, and DMA/location means nothing when it comes to name recognition and worth of TV value for football broadcasts.
And some folks just keep preaching the same things over and over.

Money talks. And the university presidents will follow it.
(This post was last modified: 09-07-2020 01:35 PM by ThunderDent.)
09-07-2020 01:33 PM
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IWokeUpLikeThis Offline
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Post: #28
RE: Would you do an AAC like this for AQ?
(09-07-2020 01:33 PM)ThunderDent Wrote:  The only problem with that is no one is going to care or put eyeballs on say, Georgia State.

Casual viewers won’t watch Georgia St, but they’ll watch Southern Miss for brand recognition?

Each played one Saturday afternoon game on ESPNU against an SEC opponent. One tripled the other:

8/31 3:30p ESPNU GA ST-TENN 702k
9/7 3:30p ESPNU USM-MISS ST 231k

The correct answer is neither Georgia St or Southern Miss or any MAC/CUSA/SBELT school move any needle in ratings. These ratings were entirely dependent on the SEC team.

(09-07-2020 01:33 PM)ThunderDent Wrote:  Even if they are in the biggest market. Markets matter very little in this.

Markets matter because the AAC is an urban league. Part of the institutional fit of the AAC is being urban. University presidents want peers like them.

Moreover, presidents want exposure for their schools in markets they can recruit athletes or students. There’s no way around it - Markets. Matter. If they didn’t, these schools wouldn’t makeup the league’s composition:

Temple - 4 DMA
SMU - 6 DMA
Houston - 8 DMA
USF - 12 DMA
UCF - 18 DMA
Cincy - 37 DMA
Tulane - 50 DMA
Memphis - 51 DMA
Tulsa - 58 DMA
ECU - 100 DMA

The only exception to the rule is ECU. ECU was added for their fan base.
ECU’s average attendance when added? 50,012
Marshall’s today? 23,190
USM’s today? 24,765


(09-07-2020 01:33 PM)ThunderDent Wrote:  That’s the whole point of my original post. It’s about brand recognition. And while, yes the university presidents make the final call, it’s money and TV contracts that will drive it. ESPN would say who would draw the eyeballs of the casual fan and make their suggestion, and how much they’d pay for said teams.

Marshall and Southern Miss aren’t those brand recognition teams that would draw the casual viewer (or any other CUSA/MAC/SBELT teams for that matter). Marshall’s ratings below aren’t going to draw ESPN to recommend them for AAC expansion:

Marshall’s bowl game in 2019 (UCF) was the lowest rated involving any P5/AAC team, and ranked bottom-5 overall.

Marshall’s bowl game in 2018 (USF) was the lowest rated involving any P5/AAC team.

Marshall’s bowl game in 2017 (CSU) was the second lowest rated overall.

https://www.sportsmediawatch.com/college...v-ratings/


(09-07-2020 01:33 PM)ThunderDent Wrote:  We are all kidding ourselves if we think academics and market matter at this level.

The actions of AAC presidents have proven otherwise every step of the way. Markets matter and while academics won’t drive decisions, it will always be taken into consideration in a boardroom of university presidents.

The only non-big/midsized market school was added to the oBE when they were drawing 50k on average.

Everyone but Tulsa and Memphis are ranked in Shanghai’s ARWU rankings. Tulsa is 150+ spots higher than Marshall/USM in USNWR. Memphis isn’t far ahead of Marshall/USM but Marshall/USM aren’t drawing 38k in FB or top-10 in BB like Memphis is.


(09-07-2020 01:33 PM)ThunderDent Wrote:  We’re kidding ourselves thinking it’s about more than cash flow.
ESPN is the leader, with the greatest sharehold, and the most power.
And the market (meaning their high brass, as well as any other bidders), will tell you how much your teams are worth.

Exposure of the brand for football on ESPN or major network TV does more for the university as a whole (academic/student recruitment) than anything.

Army has this brand. Boise has this brand. BYU has this brand.

The brand you’re talking about doesn’t apply to Marshall, Southern Miss, or any CUSA/MAC/SBELT school.

Marshall had the lowest rated bowl game involving any P5/AAC team in 2018 and 2019. Marshall had the second lowest rated bowl game overall in 2017.

(09-07-2020 01:33 PM)ThunderDent Wrote:  Academic standing, endowment, and DMA/location means nothing when it comes to name recognition and worth of TV value for football broadcasts.
And some folks just keep preaching the same things over and over.

They matter to university presidents, who make the decisions. Watch any BOT meeting or league press conference after adding someone. Those things are cited all the time.

Folks preach it because they know how university presidents think, based on actual quotes from university presidents themselves. It’s fans who think otherwise because they want to justify their wishful thinking, and then get blindsided when university presidents decide on something else. It works hook, line, sinker everytime.

And again, no CUSA/MAC/SBELT team is bringing tv value to the AAC when you look at tv ratings.

(09-07-2020 01:33 PM)ThunderDent Wrote:  Money talks. And the university presidents will follow it.

Budgets
ODU 44.3 M
UB 40.8 M
GSU 39.5 M
UAB 35.7 M
Marshall 30.6 M
USM 24.2 M

Good point.
09-07-2020 03:06 PM
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ThunderDent Offline
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Post: #29
RE: Would you do an AAC like this for AQ?
Fair points. I appreciate the research there.
09-07-2020 03:28 PM
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Post: #30
RE: Would you do an AAC like this for AQ?
(09-07-2020 11:32 AM)BullsFanInTX Wrote:  
(09-07-2020 11:14 AM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  How about this? A football-only FBS league (which I know is currently against the rules).

Best of the Rest Conference
Pod 1: Cincinnati, Temple, Toledo, Western Michigan
Pod 2: Appalachian State, Central Florida, Memphis, South Florida
Pod 3: Air Force, Army, Houston, Navy
Pod 4: Boise State, BYU, Utah State, San Diego State

Good idea. Not sure Toledo and WMU are the best options, though.

I was going largely by recent football performance.
09-07-2020 03:36 PM
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bill dazzle Offline
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Post: #31
RE: Would you do an AAC like this for AQ?
(09-07-2020 11:04 AM)ThunderDent Wrote:  Thanks for the kind words guys.

Yes, I used to be hugely active in these boards. 10-15 times a day or more. Life took a turn with kids, and career, and my time hasn’t been as involved here. Same for the HerdFans board I’m a part of. (Which I’m somehow not able to even sign into.). Also, I split time posting on several car message boards as I’m into those as well. But even that has fallen off. Life gets in the way!

In many ways, Southern Miss and Marshall both had the wind knocked out of their sails when they were left behind. I’d go so far to say the 2 most “storied” and name programs in CUSA. Lots of FB history there.
Southern Miss has a pretty decent following and is respected.

I agree on Wyoming somewhat. Had them left out for a bit, but decided to put them in for the logo. Haha. Only sort of kidding. But 2 Nevada schools didn’t make my cut.

As far as money, I was throwing that out there as something that would need to happen to make it worth it to do. Equal or lesser cuts make no sense certainly. Opinions there very welcomed.

I do think that becoming a P6 (legitimate at the next round of CFP contracts) would take a big move like this. Because no one would go for it if big “names” were still left out there. And I like the fact it wipes the MWC (the biggest threat to the now AAC out in one fail swoop (sag that again as Gov Tarkin).

I also feel like it will take ESPN to legitimize this. If they do it, and want it it will work. The current P5 need OOC content/games, and the push is coming to scrap the scrubs. Having legitimate P6 branded competition, but certainly on a lower level than some of the blue bloods, gives them more inventory to schedule and call it playing a P6 (like Duke, Wake, Wassu, etc). Even though we know most on the AAC list above are better than those teams.

Again, I believe it has to be ESPN and conf commish led, behind the scenes, and done in place for the next round of contracts to work. It will likely be the schools ESPN brass hand pick.

Interesting concept I think.
And I love it for rivalries, and close games. As well as national reach.


You did a very solid job with this, TDent. Lots of the hypotheticals offered on the board seem a bit unoriginal. Yours is distinctive.
09-07-2020 06:39 PM
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FMRocket Offline
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Post: #32
RE: Would you do an AAC like this for AQ?
(09-07-2020 03:36 PM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  
(09-07-2020 11:32 AM)BullsFanInTX Wrote:  
(09-07-2020 11:14 AM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  How about this? A football-only FBS league (which I know is currently against the rules).

Best of the Rest Conference
Pod 1: Cincinnati, Temple, Toledo, Western Michigan
Pod 2: Appalachian State, Central Florida, Memphis, South Florida
Pod 3: Air Force, Army, Houston, Navy
Pod 4: Boise State, BYU, Utah State, San Diego State

Good idea. Not sure Toledo and WMU are the best options, though.

I was going largely by recent football performance.

I probably would put Marshall in over Western Michigan...
Without PJ Fleck the Bronco program has been trending down...
Geographically, - Cincy, Toledo, Marshall, and Temple make sense...
09-07-2020 10:03 PM
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Rob3338 Offline
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Post: #33
RE: Would you do an AAC like this for AQ?
(09-07-2020 08:43 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  The problem I see here is - if these schools are all currently making no more than $7m a year in media money (the AAC schools), with most making much less than that - what makes you think that ESPN or anyone else would be willing to pay $20 million a school for this conference?

(09-07-2020 11:14 AM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  How about this? A football-only FBS league (which I know is currently against the rules).

Best of the Rest Conference
Pod 1: Cincinnati, Temple, Toledo, Western Michigan
Pod 2: Appalachian State, Central Florida, Memphis, South Florida
Pod 3: Air Force, Army, Houston, Navy
Pod 4: Boise State, BYU, San Diego State, Utah State

Pod 1 Toledo and Western Michigan have NO value
Pod 2 App State has a good year occasionally but not often enough
Pod 3 OK
Pod 4 Utah State is a no, SMU is ok

These changes might give the new AAC an eight mil per year contract. Nothing more.
09-07-2020 10:45 PM
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ah59396 Offline
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Post: #34
RE: Would you do an AAC like this for AQ?
(09-07-2020 10:45 PM)Rob3338 Wrote:  
(09-07-2020 08:43 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  The problem I see here is - if these schools are all currently making no more than $7m a year in media money (the AAC schools), with most making much less than that - what makes you think that ESPN or anyone else would be willing to pay $20 million a school for this conference?

(09-07-2020 11:14 AM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  How about this? A football-only FBS league (which I know is currently against the rules).

Best of the Rest Conference
Pod 1: Cincinnati, Temple, Toledo, Western Michigan
Pod 2: Appalachian State, Central Florida, Memphis, South Florida
Pod 3: Air Force, Army, Houston, Navy
Pod 4: Boise State, BYU, San Diego State, Utah State

Pod 1 Toledo and Western Michigan have NO value
Pod 2 App State has a good year occasionally but not often enough
Pod 3 OK
Pod 4 Utah State is a no, SMU is ok

These changes might give the new AAC an eight mil per year contract. Nothing more.

Good God man we’ve only been in FBS for 6 years! Haha.
09-07-2020 10:53 PM
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ThunderDent Offline
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Post: #35
RE: Would you do an AAC like this for AQ?
Just an idea of what it looks like on the map.

[Image: ad755wL_d.jpg?maxwidth=640&shape...ity=medium]
09-07-2020 11:53 PM
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RE: Would you do an AAC like this for AQ?
(09-07-2020 10:03 PM)FMRocket Wrote:  
(09-07-2020 03:36 PM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  
(09-07-2020 11:32 AM)BullsFanInTX Wrote:  
(09-07-2020 11:14 AM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  How about this? A football-only FBS league (which I know is currently against the rules).

Best of the Rest Conference
Pod 1: Cincinnati, Temple, Toledo, Western Michigan
Pod 2: Appalachian State, Central Florida, Memphis, South Florida
Pod 3: Air Force, Army, Houston, Navy
Pod 4: Boise State, BYU, Utah State, San Diego State

Good idea. Not sure Toledo and WMU are the best options, though.

I was going largely by recent football performance.

I probably would put Marshall in over Western Michigan...
Without PJ Fleck the Bronco program has been trending down...
Geographically, - Cincy, Toledo, Marshall, and Temple make sense...

Maybe the bottom 4 performers drop out of the "Best of the Rest" Conference every year, being replaced by the 4 best performers in the next lower tier. Like a mini version of promotion-relegation.
09-07-2020 11:53 PM
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CliftonAve Online
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Post: #37
RE: Would you do an AAC like this for AQ?
This concept does nothing for the AAC schools, only lifts up the other programs.
09-08-2020 06:12 AM
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Michael in Raleigh Offline
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RE: Would you do an AAC like this for AQ?
My head might explode if App State wouldn't be included in a 24 team AAC. Clearly, ties with Georgia with the fifth most wins in all of FBS since 2015, Appalachian has been at the very least the best program among the MAC, C-USA, and the SB.

It's all moot, anyway. This is not happening.
(This post was last modified: 09-08-2020 07:34 AM by Michael in Raleigh.)
09-08-2020 07:33 AM
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Post: #39
RE: Would you do an AAC like this for AQ?
(09-07-2020 04:49 AM)BraveKnight Wrote:  Not sure why USM and Marshall are added.

I guess so you can add Haw to balance out the pods. That Package even if it got you an Auto bid, Would get less $$ per team than the current AAC. So thanks but no thanks.
09-08-2020 07:53 AM
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RE: Would you do an AAC like this for AQ?
(09-07-2020 11:53 PM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  
(09-07-2020 10:03 PM)FMRocket Wrote:  
(09-07-2020 03:36 PM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  
(09-07-2020 11:32 AM)BullsFanInTX Wrote:  
(09-07-2020 11:14 AM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  How about this? A football-only FBS league (which I know is currently against the rules).

Best of the Rest Conference
Pod 1: Cincinnati, Temple, Toledo, Western Michigan
Pod 2: Appalachian State, Central Florida, Memphis, South Florida
Pod 3: Air Force, Army, Houston, Navy
Pod 4: Boise State, BYU, Utah State, San Diego State

Good idea. Not sure Toledo and WMU are the best options, though.

I was going largely by recent football performance.

I probably would put Marshall in over Western Michigan...
Without PJ Fleck the Bronco program has been trending down...
Geographically, - Cincy, Toledo, Marshall, and Temple make sense...

Maybe the bottom 4 performers drop out of the "Best of the Rest" Conference every year, being replaced by the 4 best performers in the next lower tier. Like a mini version of promotion-relegation.

Where are Tulsa, Tulane, and SMU?
09-08-2020 08:52 AM
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