(03-27-2020 11:27 AM)Hokie Mark Wrote: (03-27-2020 09:36 AM)IWokeUpLikeThis Wrote: 5 weeks later, Kirk Herbstreit is in agreement with JRsec.
https://www.saturdaydownsouth.com/sec-fo...ason-2020/
Well, Kirk went to Ohio State... JR went to Auburn, so...
Look at two extreme scenarios:
In scenario A, it rages out of control, so there will be hundreds of thousands to millions dead. A majority of the population might be exposed, but a large minority won't have been And we still have no firm idea how much immunity is conferred on recovery ... immunity to some of the coronaviruses that cause head colds seems to only be a matter of one to three years. So under that scenario it might be possible from an epidemiological perspective to start up football practice by September and have a shortened season by October, given an active testing and monitoring program to avoid flare ups ... but after experiencing the most traumatic of the various possible scenarios, it would probably be politically untenable for college football in particular.
In scenario B, effective social isolation is put in place for six weeks to two months, the time is used to get testing up to speed, get care facilities up to speed, get a serious contact tracing and testing system up to speed, and once we know how has it, who has had it, who is still at risk, and who has been in contact with those who are infectious, we can get serious about slowing the spread and keeping the total number infected at one time well within the capability of our medical system to cope with the seriously and critically ill percentages (of all ages) of roughly 20% and 5% of the infected ...
... which would happily prevent the deaths from getting up to the hundreds of thousands to millions levels, but also push the peak out to August or so. A lot of activities might be getting back toward normal with suitable precautions, but probably not getting many dozens of young men together to get ready for fall football, nor even less packing tens of thousands of people into stadiums to cheer on their football team.
So there are really multiple different pathways that get to the "no 2020 CFB season" outcome. Whether it's likely, I don't know. But it's certainly conceivable.