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Could We Have A Year Without College Football?
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JRsec Offline
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Could We Have A Year Without College Football?
The Corona Virus 19 might be the reason. It's in Italy now. People are contagious for about 21 days. It's almost March. Let's say the virus gets into some of the general population by late April to mid May. For it to become widespread according to the present models it would take about 2 months for the virus to start to peak. So we are talking mid July. We have a large country with many isolated rural areas. So the peak could last for another 2 months striking in mid September in a lot of regions.

Is it inconceivable that College Football could be postponed for a year due to health concerns? There would be no greater incubator for an infectious disease than packed stadia and handled food at tailgates.

I was wondering if anyone else had started to think about these things?
(This post was last modified: 02-25-2020 05:22 PM by JRsec.)
02-25-2020 05:21 PM
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IWokeUpLikeThis Offline
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RE: Could We Have A Year Without College Football?
It's almost exactly 100 years from when the Stanley Cup was canceled from influenza.
02-25-2020 05:45 PM
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dbackjon Offline
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RE: Could We Have A Year Without College Football?
I hadn't thought in those terms, but possibly (or TV Broadcasts only).
02-25-2020 05:48 PM
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Wedge Offline
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RE: Could We Have A Year Without College Football?
The people running the Olympics are thinking about it. They are probably not the only ones.

Quote:TOKYO (AP) — A senior member of the International Olympic Committee said Tuesday that if it proves too dangerous to hold the Olympics in Tokyo this summer because of the coronavirus outbreak, organizers are more likely to cancel it altogether than to postpone or move it.

Dick Pound, a former Canadian swimming champion who has been on the IOC since 1978, making him its longest-serving member, estimated there is a three-month window — perhaps a two-month one — to decide the fate of the Tokyo Olympics, meaning a decision could be put off until late May.
Quote:If the IOC decides the games cannot go forward as scheduled in Tokyo, “you’re probably looking at a cancellation,” he said.
https://apnews.com/58043910be7bdc6818344bdee2096bc2
02-25-2020 05:52 PM
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Fighting Muskie Offline
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RE: Could We Have A Year Without College Football?
The NBA and NHL are still going on as normal
02-25-2020 06:15 PM
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colohank Offline
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RE: Could We Have A Year Without College Football?
(02-25-2020 05:21 PM)JRsec Wrote:  The Corona Virus 19 might be the reason. It's in Italy now. People are contagious for about 21 days. It's almost March. Let's say the virus gets into some of the general population by late April to mid May. For it to become widespread according to the present models it would take about 2 months for the virus to start to peak. So we are talking mid July. We have a large country with many isolated rural areas. So the peak could last for another 2 months striking in mid September in a lot of regions.

Is it inconceivable that College Football could be postponed for a year due to health concerns? There would be no greater incubator for an infectious disease than packed stadia and handled food at tailgates.

I was wondering if anyone else had started to think about these things?

Spread of the disease is probably greater during the colder months when folks are more confined -- like the poor captive thousands on those cruise ships who thought they had to worry only about Norwalk virus and all the other ills that regularly sweep through those conveyances. It'll be interesting to see if the contagion abates as the weather warms. Interesting also to see if a vaccine is developed (or even needed) to deal with this particular edition of Corona virus. Like SARS, it might prove to be a relatively short-lived phenomenon.

Has it struck summertime Australia yet?
02-25-2020 06:17 PM
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MWC Tex Online
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RE: Could We Have A Year Without College Football?
Nothing was stopped with the bird flu scare, the Ebola virus scare and the corona virus scare won’t cause a stopping of college football.
02-25-2020 06:18 PM
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Attackcoog Offline
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RE: Could We Have A Year Without College Football?
(02-25-2020 05:21 PM)JRsec Wrote:  The Corona Virus 19 might be the reason. It's in Italy now. People are contagious for about 21 days. It's almost March. Let's say the virus gets into some of the general population by late April to mid May. For it to become widespread according to the present models it would take about 2 months for the virus to start to peak. So we are talking mid July. We have a large country with many isolated rural areas. So the peak could last for another 2 months striking in mid September in a lot of regions.

Is it inconceivable that College Football could be postponed for a year due to health concerns? There would be no greater incubator for an infectious disease than packed stadia and handled food at tailgates.

I was wondering if anyone else had started to think about these things?

I actually thought about it---but didnt even want to say it. Interesting question---if the worse happens and we have an outbreak in the general US population---might a compromise for the football season (both college and NFL) be that the sport becomes a "TV only" event just for 2020.
02-25-2020 06:22 PM
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Attackcoog Offline
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RE: Could We Have A Year Without College Football?
(02-25-2020 06:18 PM)MWC Tex Wrote:  Nothing was stopped with the bird flu scare, the Ebola virus scare and the corona virus scare won’t cause a stopping of college football.

None of those ever entered the US general population. If fall comes and the current situation still holds---there would be no reason to expect that people would act any different than they do now. If however the virus has spread to the general US population (and not just a few isolated quarantined cases), nobody is going to have any interest in attending large public events packed hip-to-hip with thousands of people. Heck--for all we know the schools themselves could be shut down to minimize virus spread.
(This post was last modified: 02-25-2020 06:28 PM by Attackcoog.)
02-25-2020 06:26 PM
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RE: Could We Have A Year Without College Football?
(02-25-2020 05:52 PM)Wedge Wrote:  Dick Pound, a former Canadian swimming champion who has been on the IOC since 1978, making him its longest-serving member,


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02-25-2020 06:29 PM
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Wedge Offline
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RE: Could We Have A Year Without College Football?
(02-25-2020 06:29 PM)georgia_tech_swagger Wrote:  
(02-25-2020 05:52 PM)Wedge Wrote:  Dick Pound, a former Canadian swimming champion who has been on the IOC since 1978, making him its longest-serving member,


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02-25-2020 06:39 PM
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dbackjon Offline
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RE: Could We Have A Year Without College Football?
(02-25-2020 06:18 PM)MWC Tex Wrote:  Nothing was stopped with the bird flu scare, the Ebola virus scare and the corona virus scare won’t cause a stopping of college football.

Not comparable, at this point.

Ebola is not an airborne virus
The Bird Flu was not an airborne virus.

Coronavirus is airborne, and a person can have it and not display symptons.
02-25-2020 06:42 PM
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MKPitt Offline
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RE: Could We Have A Year Without College Football?
I don’t get it, the mortality rate is like 2% and it doesn’t seem that widespread. Why is everyone having a meltdown about this?
02-25-2020 07:02 PM
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dbackjon Offline
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RE: Could We Have A Year Without College Football?
(02-25-2020 07:02 PM)MKPitt Wrote:  I don’t get it, the mortality rate is like 2% and it doesn’t seem that widespread. Why is everyone having a meltdown about this?

If 70% of the country gets it (as some experts are saying is the worst case scenario) that is 250 Million ill (most will be mild or no symptons) and 5 million dead.


It is not wide spread YET. And hopefully will not be. But with clusters breaking out in South Korea, Italy, and Iran, it is not contained.
02-25-2020 07:07 PM
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johnbragg Offline
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RE: Could We Have A Year Without College Football?
(02-25-2020 07:02 PM)MKPitt Wrote:  I don’t get it, the mortality rate is like 2% and it doesn’t seem that widespread. Why is everyone having a meltdown about this?

Because 2% of everybody is a hell of a lot of people.

And this looks like it's going to get to everybody, sooner or later. It's contagious enough that, sooner or later, it's going to be a bug that's just part of the background noise like flu or the common cold.

I'm skeptical of how solid the 2% number is, but 2% of the US population is about 6 million people dying.
02-25-2020 07:26 PM
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Attackcoog Offline
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RE: Could We Have A Year Without College Football?
(02-25-2020 07:07 PM)dbackjon Wrote:  
(02-25-2020 07:02 PM)MKPitt Wrote:  I don’t get it, the mortality rate is like 2% and it doesn’t seem that widespread. Why is everyone having a meltdown about this?

If 70% of the country gets it (as some experts are saying is the worst case scenario) that is 250 Million ill (most will be mild or no symptons) and 5 million dead.


It is not wide spread YET. And hopefully will not be. But with clusters breaking out in South Korea, Italy, and Iran, it is not contained.

This. I'd also add that that 2% number is not accurate. The 2% number comes from simply dividing deaths by the total number of infections. Im going to use ballpark figures here recalling them from memory.

The problem is, of the roughly 80,000 infections----about 25,000 have recovered and 2500 have died. The issue is---we dont know how the other 52,500 (about 66% of the infections) are going to turn out because they are still sick. That 2% number (2500 deaths divided by 80,000 infections) assumes every single one of the people who are still sick will completely recover. That's not likely since about 12K of the currently sick are listed as "serious or critical".

The recovered-to-deaths ratios indicates a 10% mortality---but thats misleading on the high side because it takes longer to completely recover than it takes to die from the virus. Thus, my guess is the real number is higher than 2% but lower than 10%. Im going to guess it ends up 4-5%. That morality rate with a 70% infection rate would result in 10 million dead in the US in a single year. Thats like every person in New York City dying. We freaked when 3,000 got killed in a terrorist attack. So, of course---this is going to be taken very seriously.
(This post was last modified: 02-25-2020 07:39 PM by Attackcoog.)
02-25-2020 07:30 PM
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RE: Could We Have A Year Without College Football?
(02-25-2020 05:21 PM)JRsec Wrote:  The Corona Virus 19 might be the reason. It's in Italy now. People are contagious for about 21 days. It's almost March. Let's say the virus gets into some of the general population by late April to mid May. For it to become widespread according to the present models it would take about 2 months for the virus to start to peak. So we are talking mid July. We have a large country with many isolated rural areas. So the peak could last for another 2 months striking in mid September in a lot of regions.

Is it inconceivable that College Football could be postponed for a year due to health concerns? There would be no greater incubator for an infectious disease than packed stadia and handled food at tailgates.

I was wondering if anyone else had started to think about these things?

It's mortality rate is lower than influenza I predict in the US.

No chance unless it mutates

JR should not we cancel all sports?
(This post was last modified: 02-25-2020 07:37 PM by TexanMark.)
02-25-2020 07:35 PM
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JRsec Offline
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RE: Could We Have A Year Without College Football?
(02-25-2020 07:35 PM)TexanMark Wrote:  
(02-25-2020 05:21 PM)JRsec Wrote:  The Corona Virus 19 might be the reason. It's in Italy now. People are contagious for about 21 days. It's almost March. Let's say the virus gets into some of the general population by late April to mid May. For it to become widespread according to the present models it would take about 2 months for the virus to start to peak. So we are talking mid July. We have a large country with many isolated rural areas. So the peak could last for another 2 months striking in mid September in a lot of regions.

Is it inconceivable that College Football could be postponed for a year due to health concerns? There would be no greater incubator for an infectious disease than packed stadia and handled food at tailgates.

I was wondering if anyone else had started to think about these things?

It's mortality rate is lower than influenza I predict in the US.

No chance unless it mutates

JR should not we cancel all sports?

I could see the start of college basketball and the end of college baseball possibly falling into the peak should it strike. We could probably live with the cancellation of some early basketball, and we might start thinking about the end of college baseball.

If it is virulent then I think quite possibly we should. But at least in the Fall it is pretty much just football.

Major League Baseball is a whole other matter as it might be hitting right at playoff time.
(This post was last modified: 02-25-2020 07:43 PM by JRsec.)
02-25-2020 07:42 PM
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RE: Could We Have A Year Without College Football?
Didn't they delay a emu (one of the directional Michigan teams) basketball game because a student had it? I don't think at this time the season is going to be cancelled but if it spreads I do think ticket sales will take a hit.
02-25-2020 07:48 PM
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RE: Could We Have A Year Without College Football?
(02-25-2020 07:35 PM)TexanMark Wrote:  
(02-25-2020 05:21 PM)JRsec Wrote:  The Corona Virus 19 might be the reason. It's in Italy now. People are contagious for about 21 days. It's almost March. Let's say the virus gets into some of the general population by late April to mid May. For it to become widespread according to the present models it would take about 2 months for the virus to start to peak. So we are talking mid July. We have a large country with many isolated rural areas. So the peak could last for another 2 months striking in mid September in a lot of regions.

Is it inconceivable that College Football could be postponed for a year due to health concerns? There would be no greater incubator for an infectious disease than packed stadia and handled food at tailgates.

I was wondering if anyone else had started to think about these things?

It's mortality rate is lower than influenza I predict in the US.

No chance unless it mutates

JR should not we cancel all sports?

Zero reason to believe that. In a limited outbreak---its mortality may very well be lower than other countries here because of superior care--but it wont be less than the flu. I'd also tell you that a truly wide spread breakout where millions are infected would likely overwhelm the healthcare system to the point that the care provided probably wouldnt meet our current expectations for care. That superior care advantage might degrade pretty quickly.
(This post was last modified: 02-25-2020 07:50 PM by Attackcoog.)
02-25-2020 07:48 PM
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