(12-01-2019 02:34 PM)SuperFlyBCat Wrote:  

(12-01-2019 02:25 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(12-01-2019 12:56 PM)gulfcoastgal Wrote:  It’ll be interesting to see what happens if UC and BSU win. Will they rule on sos as in 2014 vs. straight record or will BSU have some “name” cache?

I think Cincy needs Boise to lose to get in. The CFP does like the computers, and Cincy has fallen to #23 against Boise's #19 in the computers.

Heck, even App State is above Cincy in the computers, #23 to #20.

It's unlikely a win over Memphis can cover that.

What does a Cincy win do vs a ranked Memphis compared to a BSU win vs. #61 Hawaii and AppSt has #34 Louisiana......could App St leap Boise, could UC leap both. We have to see what the CFP rating look like here soon.

Hawaii is #50 in the Massey right now, but that can change.

But yes, the CFP rankings two days from now will provide some big clues.

(12-01-2019 01:46 PM)BullsFanInTX Wrote:  

(11-30-2019 10:51 AM)RUScarlets Wrote:  Boise St probably has the brand recognition more so than UC. If UC wins and splits with Memphis in a tight match, I would go with BSU. Not much different resume than UC, whose 42-0 showing against OSU, albeit early in the year, is not indicative of a worthy two loss champ getting in. Plus, UC does not have wins over SMU and Navy this year.

You can take UGa or Fla at two losses, Utah two loss, or a third place B1G team vs Boise and get a nice turnout in Jerry World.

Ohio State also routed Wisconsin and Michigan by huge margins, so the lopsided score vs. Ohio State means nothing...they routed everyone, practically.

What’s more desired (assuming only the options below)?:

1. Close loss to top FBS opponent
2. Blowout win against FCS or bottom FBS
3. Blowout loss to top FBS

That’s how I’d rank those three scenarios. So UC would have been better off blowing out an FCS school but are suffering now by scheduling OSU with the year they are having.

2/3 gives you nothing to work with sans win is better than a loss. So UC really needs an impressive win to jump this, but if Memphis moves up really high, UC can boost the SOS and possibly edge BSU.

It's funny how some AAC fans are trying to get us to treat the Cincy debacle vs Ohio State as kind of a reverse-FCS game.

You know, how an FCS game might not count towards bowl eligibility? Well these fans want a loss to Ohio State to "not count" towards NY6 "diseligibility" or somesuch. This must be how the Aresco Propaganda Machine is spinning it, LOL.

It's pretty hilarious.

But in fact, we should pay special attention to the Cincy - Ohio State game, because we are trying to pick who should go to an NY6 bowl and face a top P5 Power. The fact that Cincy faced one and got blown out thus tells us something about their worthiness to face other powers. Now true, teams like Boise and App State - and Memphis for that matter - haven't faced any P5 powers so maybe they would get blown out too, but at least with them the jury is out ...

(12-01-2019 03:03 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  It's funny how some AAC fans are trying to get us to treat the Cincy debacle vs Ohio State as kind of a reverse-FCS game.

You know, how an FCS game might not count towards bowl eligibility? Well these fans want a loss to Ohio State to "not count" towards NY6 "diseligibility" or somesuch. This must be how the Aresco Propaganda Machine is spinning it, LOL.

It's pretty hilarious.

But in fact, we should pay special attention to the Cincy - Ohio State game, because we are trying to pick who should go to an NY6 bowl and face a top P5 Power. The fact that Cincy faced one and got blown out thus tells us something about their worthiness to face other powers. Now true, teams like Boise and App State - and Memphis for that matter - haven't faced any P5 powers so maybe they would get blown out too, but at least with them the jury is out ...

By that standard, Penn St. is Ohio St.'s only opponent in that category. Everyone else has lost by at least 24.

(12-01-2019 03:07 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(12-01-2019 03:03 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  It's funny how some AAC fans are trying to get us to treat the Cincy debacle vs Ohio State as kind of a reverse-FCS game.

You know, how an FCS game might not count towards bowl eligibility? Well these fans want a loss to Ohio State to "not count" towards NY6 "diseligibility" or somesuch. This must be how the Aresco Propaganda Machine is spinning it, LOL.

It's pretty hilarious.

But in fact, we should pay special attention to the Cincy - Ohio State game, because we are trying to pick who should go to an NY6 bowl and face a top P5 Power. The fact that Cincy faced one and got blown out thus tells us something about their worthiness to face other powers. Now true, teams like Boise and App State - and Memphis for that matter - haven't faced any P5 powers so maybe they would get blown out too, but at least with them the jury is out ...

By that standard, Penn St. is Ohio St.'s only opponent in that category. Everyone else has lost by at least 24.

PSU needed 3 TO fumble recoveries to get into the game. OSU's QB has 37 TDs and 1 Int. And I would put PSU in the semi elite category this year. No matter who plays in the Cotton Bowl for the G5 they better bring their A game because PSU or Florida are pretty dang good.

The problem is this. Boise blow out win was against Portland State who almost beat Arkansas.
BYU best win was against Tennessee who took down South Carolina who took down Georgia.
Boise's best wins are Air Force, UNR, Hawaii and San Jose State. I put San Jose State here because they are stronger than what their record shows. Air Force's only 2 losses were to Navy and Boise State. Boise beat Air Force by double digit numbers. Navy did not. Navy did beat SMU, and SMU almost took Memphis down. I say that Memphis and Boise State are close together on their schedule. Wyoming lost to Tulsa, and Tulsa nearly took down the leaders of the west AAC. Boise beat Wyoming by double digit numbers. So, you have to look at the opponents that AAC and MWC have in common and the scores. Appalachian State lost to a rival in a rivalry game so that should be expected. Boise lost to a rival in a rivalry game to BYU. Memphis lost to Temple who is not really their rival to compete every year like the other two. That is the downside to Memphis right now.

(12-01-2019 03:03 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  It's funny how some AAC fans are trying to get us to treat the Cincy debacle vs Ohio State as kind of a reverse-FCS game.

You know, how an FCS game might not count towards bowl eligibility? Well these fans want a loss to Ohio State to "not count" towards NY6 "diseligibility" or somesuch. This must be how the Aresco Propaganda Machine is spinning it, LOL.

It's pretty hilarious.

But in fact, we should pay special attention to the Cincy - Ohio State game, because we are trying to pick who should go to an NY6 bowl and face a top P5 Power. The fact that Cincy faced one and got blown out thus tells us something about their worthiness to face other powers. Now true, teams like Boise and App State - and Memphis for that matter - haven't faced any P5 powers so maybe they would get blown out too, but at least with them the jury is out ...

Michigan and Wisconsin got blown out by Ohio State. What does that tell you?

(12-01-2019 07:38 PM)DavidSt Wrote:  The problem is this. Boise blow out win was against Portland State who almost beat Arkansas.
BYU best win was against Tennessee who took down South Carolina who took down Georgia.
Boise's best wins are Air Force, UNR, Hawaii and San Jose State. I put San Jose State here because they are stronger than what their record shows. Air Force's only 2 losses were to Navy and Boise State. Boise beat Air Force by double digit numbers. Navy did not. Navy did beat SMU, and SMU almost took Memphis down. I say that Memphis and Boise State are close together on their schedule. Wyoming lost to Tulsa, and Tulsa nearly took down the leaders of the west AAC. Boise beat Wyoming by double digit numbers. So, you have to look at the opponents that AAC and MWC have in common and the scores. Appalachian State lost to a rival in a rivalry game so that should be expected. Boise lost to a rival in a rivalry game to BYU. Memphis lost to Temple who is not really their rival to compete every year like the other two. That is the downside to Memphis right now.

IF Cincinnati beats ranked (ranked by the committe themselves) Memphis in the CCG and Boise beats Hawaii (currently #48 in the Massey Composite), here are the resumes for the two teams:

FPI Strength of Record (before those results are factored in):
Cincinnati 19th best, Boise State 21st best
So a metric comparable to what we presume the committee uses, advantage Cincinnati.

Wins, with Massey Composite this week, only 57 rankings compiled:
Cincinnati: #16, 24, 47, 60, 74, 81, 82, 85, 96, 117, 125
Boise State: #25, 48, 52, 55, 60, 63, 104,111,115,123,FCS
(I didn't double up #48 Hawaii, who would also presumably drop)

Definitely better quality wins up top for Cincinnati. A couple better wins for Boise for fourth, fifth, and sixth best wins, but big advantage to Cincinnati over the bottom of each schedule.

If the committee gets to common opponents, Marshall is Boise's fifth best win and Cincinnati's fourth best win; Boise eked out a one TD win at home, while Cincinnati blew out Marshall on the road. Again, advantage Cincinnati.

Overall Strength of Schedule:
Sagarin says Cincinnati is #70 and Boise State is #88; Massey says Cincinnati is #48 and Boise State is #84.

Losses:
Cincinnati would have a loss to #1, and a loss to #16 avenged in the CCG
Boise's loss is to #53 BYU
We'll see what the committee does, but to me, even the second loss to two ranked teams is better than a loss to a mediocre team.

What WOULD the committee do, looking at those two records? I don't know.
But it is far from ironclad that Boise gets the nod if the committee truly looks at the totality of the two records by the criteria the committee publically says they use. In fact, IF they do go by all those criteria, then a two-loss Cincinnati would/should/could have the advantage over Boise State.

(12-01-2019 09:52 PM)slhNavy91 Wrote:  

(12-01-2019 07:38 PM)DavidSt Wrote:  The problem is this. Boise blow out win was against Portland State who almost beat Arkansas.
BYU best win was against Tennessee who took down South Carolina who took down Georgia.
Boise's best wins are Air Force, UNR, Hawaii and San Jose State. I put San Jose State here because they are stronger than what their record shows. Air Force's only 2 losses were to Navy and Boise State. Boise beat Air Force by double digit numbers. Navy did not. Navy did beat SMU, and SMU almost took Memphis down. I say that Memphis and Boise State are close together on their schedule. Wyoming lost to Tulsa, and Tulsa nearly took down the leaders of the west AAC. Boise beat Wyoming by double digit numbers. So, you have to look at the opponents that AAC and MWC have in common and the scores. Appalachian State lost to a rival in a rivalry game so that should be expected. Boise lost to a rival in a rivalry game to BYU. Memphis lost to Temple who is not really their rival to compete every year like the other two. That is the downside to Memphis right now.

IF Cincinnati beats ranked (ranked by the committe themselves) Memphis in the CCG and Boise beats Hawaii (currently #48 in the Massey Composite), here are the resumes for the two teams:

FPI Strength of Record (before those results are factored in):
Cincinnati 19th best, Boise State 21st best
So a metric comparable to what we presume the committee uses, advantage Cincinnati.

Wins, with Massey Composite this week, only 57 rankings compiled:
Cincinnati: #16, 24, 47, 60, 74, 81, 82, 85, 96, 117, 125
Boise State: #25, 48, 52, 55, 60, 63, 104,111,115,123,FCS
(I didn't double up #48 Hawaii, who would also presumably drop)

Definitely better quality wins up top for Cincinnati. A couple better wins for Boise for fourth, fifth, and sixth best wins, but big advantage to Cincinnati over the bottom of each schedule.

If the committee gets to common opponents, Marshall is Boise's fifth best win and Cincinnati's fourth best win; Boise eked out a one TD win at home, while Cincinnati blew out Marshall on the road. Again, advantage Cincinnati.

Overall Strength of Schedule:
Sagarin says Cincinnati is #70 and Boise State is #88; Massey says Cincinnati is #48 and Boise State is #84.

Losses:
Cincinnati would have a loss to #1, and a loss to #16 avenged in the CCG
Boise's loss is to #53 BYU
We'll see what the committee does, but to me, even the second loss to two ranked teams is better than a loss to a mediocre team.

What WOULD the committee do, looking at those two records? I don't know.
But it is far from ironclad that Boise gets the nod if the committee truly looks at the totality of the two records by the criteria the committee publically says they use. In fact, IF they do go by all those criteria, then a two-loss Cincinnati would/should/could have the advantage over Boise State.

I believe Cincinnati is the better team but I also don't think the committee will have a 2-loss Cincinnati jump a 1-loss Boise St. However, I don't think this will be an issue because I firmly believe Memphis will take care of business against Cincinnati again. I think Appalachian St is on the outside looking if they win regardless of the AAC and MWC championship games' results.

(12-01-2019 09:52 PM)slhNavy91 Wrote:  

(12-01-2019 07:38 PM)DavidSt Wrote:  The problem is this. Boise blow out win was against Portland State who almost beat Arkansas.
BYU best win was against Tennessee who took down South Carolina who took down Georgia.
Boise's best wins are Air Force, UNR, Hawaii and San Jose State. I put San Jose State here because they are stronger than what their record shows. Air Force's only 2 losses were to Navy and Boise State. Boise beat Air Force by double digit numbers. Navy did not. Navy did beat SMU, and SMU almost took Memphis down. I say that Memphis and Boise State are close together on their schedule. Wyoming lost to Tulsa, and Tulsa nearly took down the leaders of the west AAC. Boise beat Wyoming by double digit numbers. So, you have to look at the opponents that AAC and MWC have in common and the scores. Appalachian State lost to a rival in a rivalry game so that should be expected. Boise lost to a rival in a rivalry game to BYU. Memphis lost to Temple who is not really their rival to compete every year like the other two. That is the downside to Memphis right now.

IF Cincinnati beats ranked (ranked by the committe themselves) Memphis in the CCG and Boise beats Hawaii (currently #48 in the Massey Composite), here are the resumes for the two teams:

FPI Strength of Record (before those results are factored in):
Cincinnati 19th best, Boise State 21st best
So a metric comparable to what we presume the committee uses, advantage Cincinnati.

Wins, with Massey Composite this week, only 57 rankings compiled:
Cincinnati: #16, 24, 47, 60, 74, 81, 82, 85, 96, 117, 125
Boise State: #25, 48, 52, 55, 60, 63, 104,111,115,123,FCS
(I didn't double up #48 Hawaii, who would also presumably drop)

Definitely better quality wins up top for Cincinnati. A couple better wins for Boise for fourth, fifth, and sixth best wins, but big advantage to Cincinnati over the bottom of each schedule.

If the committee gets to common opponents, Marshall is Boise's fifth best win and Cincinnati's fourth best win; Boise eked out a one TD win at home, while Cincinnati blew out Marshall on the road. Again, advantage Cincinnati.

Overall Strength of Schedule:
Sagarin says Cincinnati is #70 and Boise State is #88; Massey says Cincinnati is #48 and Boise State is #84.

Losses:
Cincinnati would have a loss to #1, and a loss to #16 avenged in the CCG
Boise's loss is to #53 BYU
We'll see what the committee does, but to me, even the second loss to two ranked teams is better than a loss to a mediocre team.

What WOULD the committee do, looking at those two records? I don't know.
But it is far from ironclad that Boise gets the nod if the committee truly looks at the totality of the two records by the criteria the committee publically says they use. In fact, IF they do go by all those criteria, then a two-loss Cincinnati would/should/could have the advantage over Boise State.

I throw out the computers in this and look at the eyeball test. Hawaii is way underrated in the computers while AP have them at number 31. Massey under cuts G5 schools and over hyped terrible P5 teams in the top 30 that even Hawaii could beat. That is the problem with these computers. The teams that Boise State played including BYU are tough. The only exception is New Mexico that everybody beat up.
Air Force is ranked in the AP top 25 this week. I think they would be top 25 in the CFP polls as well. That would help Boise out if Memphis loses to Cincinnati.

Way I see it based on likely rankings:

Memphis probably enters Tuesday ranked the highest. If they win they are in.

Boise will likely be next highest. If Memphis loses and Boise wins it’s a tough call between Cincy with two losses avenging one and Boise with one.

If both Memphis and Boise lose it’s probably Cincy’s.

Outside chance of App St

(12-01-2019 11:36 PM)DavidSt Wrote:  

(12-01-2019 09:52 PM)slhNavy91 Wrote:  

(12-01-2019 07:38 PM)DavidSt Wrote:  The problem is this. Boise blow out win was against Portland State who almost beat Arkansas.
BYU best win was against Tennessee who took down South Carolina who took down Georgia.
Boise's best wins are Air Force, UNR, Hawaii and San Jose State. I put San Jose State here because they are stronger than what their record shows. Air Force's only 2 losses were to Navy and Boise State. Boise beat Air Force by double digit numbers. Navy did not. Navy did beat SMU, and SMU almost took Memphis down. I say that Memphis and Boise State are close together on their schedule. Wyoming lost to Tulsa, and Tulsa nearly took down the leaders of the west AAC. Boise beat Wyoming by double digit numbers. So, you have to look at the opponents that AAC and MWC have in common and the scores. Appalachian State lost to a rival in a rivalry game so that should be expected. Boise lost to a rival in a rivalry game to BYU. Memphis lost to Temple who is not really their rival to compete every year like the other two. That is the downside to Memphis right now.

IF Cincinnati beats ranked (ranked by the committe themselves) Memphis in the CCG and Boise beats Hawaii (currently #48 in the Massey Composite), here are the resumes for the two teams:

FPI Strength of Record (before those results are factored in):
Cincinnati 19th best, Boise State 21st best
So a metric comparable to what we presume the committee uses, advantage Cincinnati.

Wins, with Massey Composite this week, only 57 rankings compiled:
Cincinnati: #16, 24, 47, 60, 74, 81, 82, 85, 96, 117, 125
Boise State: #25, 48, 52, 55, 60, 63, 104,111,115,123,FCS
(I didn't double up #48 Hawaii, who would also presumably drop)

Definitely better quality wins up top for Cincinnati. A couple better wins for Boise for fourth, fifth, and sixth best wins, but big advantage to Cincinnati over the bottom of each schedule.

If the committee gets to common opponents, Marshall is Boise's fifth best win and Cincinnati's fourth best win; Boise eked out a one TD win at home, while Cincinnati blew out Marshall on the road. Again, advantage Cincinnati.

Overall Strength of Schedule:
Sagarin says Cincinnati is #70 and Boise State is #88; Massey says Cincinnati is #48 and Boise State is #84.

Losses:
Cincinnati would have a loss to #1, and a loss to #16 avenged in the CCG
Boise's loss is to #53 BYU
We'll see what the committee does, but to me, even the second loss to two ranked teams is better than a loss to a mediocre team.

What WOULD the committee do, looking at those two records? I don't know.
But it is far from ironclad that Boise gets the nod if the committee truly looks at the totality of the two records by the criteria the committee publically says they use. In fact, IF they do go by all those criteria, then a two-loss Cincinnati would/should/could have the advantage over Boise State.

I throw out the computers in this and look at the eyeball test. Hawaii is way underrated in the computers while AP have them at number 31. Massey under cuts G5 schools and over hyped terrible P5 teams in the top 30 that even Hawaii could beat. That is the problem with these computers. The teams that Boise State played including BYU are tough. The only exception is New Mexico that everybody beat up.
Air Force is ranked in the AP top 25 this week. I think they would be top 25 in the CFP polls as well. That would help Boise out if Memphis loses to Cincinnati.

Massey has 7 seven G5 in the top 25.

And BYU passes the eye test? You realize they are 7-5 right?

I'm rooting for Cincy to beat Memphis in the CCG.

I'd love to see Boise State or better yet App State go if Boise State gets upset.

Obviously, I’m rooting for Memphis, but it won’t surprise me if they get upset. It’s simply amazing when you look at the turnaround the program has made since the big boosters and a new admin starting investing in football (not just lip service). Sat. after the game DeAngelo Williams walked into the press booth and gave a great interview. He said back in his day, they had to scrounge just for gloves and cleats. Now, they never wear the same uni twice. This is why I never count a program down for the count. I figure if Memphis can do it, others can as well. I really can’t think of another program outside the power 5 with a better combo of revenue sports at the moment. They lead the G5 in fanbase support at over $21M for tix & donations according to the last USAToday info...which was in Tubby’s last abysmal year (attendance wise). The admin has set up two athletic endowments for sustainability and the future looks bright especially when compared to the dark days a decade ago.

(12-02-2019 08:33 AM)gulfcoastgal Wrote:  Obviously, I’m rooting for Memphis, but it won’t surprise me if they get upset. It’s simply amazing when you look at the turnaround the program has made since the big boosters and a new admin starting investing in football (not just lip service).

From what I saw on Saturday, Memphis just looks superior to Cincy, so I am expecting a Memphis win.

But, there is always the chance that Cincy was sandbagging. I doubt it, for a number of reasons, but it's possible they kept some tricks up their sleeve for the CCG.

We shall see.

(12-02-2019 09:00 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(12-02-2019 08:33 AM)gulfcoastgal Wrote:  Obviously, I’m rooting for Memphis, but it won’t surprise me if they get upset. It’s simply amazing when you look at the turnaround the program has made since the big boosters and a new admin starting investing in football (not just lip service).

From what I saw on Saturday, Memphis just looks superior to Cincy, so I am expecting a Memphis win.

But, there is always the chance that Cincy was sandbagging. I doubt it, for a number of reasons, but it's possible they kept some tricks up their sleeve for the CCG.

We shall see.

?? Yards from scrimmage, passing yards, rushing yards was almost identical. Memphis won the turnover battle by 2 and returned the opening kick for a TD.
UC's backup QB made his first start.

I don't think the CFP committee gives as much thought into this as you guys do. IF UC beats Memphis and Boise beats Hawaii they'll give Boise the Cotton Bowl because they are 12-1 and a couple of the committee members remembers Boise beating Oklahoma several years ago.

(12-02-2019 09:21 AM)SuperFlyBCat Wrote:  

(12-02-2019 09:00 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(12-02-2019 08:33 AM)gulfcoastgal Wrote:  Obviously, I’m rooting for Memphis, but it won’t surprise me if they get upset. It’s simply amazing when you look at the turnaround the program has made since the big boosters and a new admin starting investing in football (not just lip service).

From what I saw on Saturday, Memphis just looks superior to Cincy, so I am expecting a Memphis win.

But, there is always the chance that Cincy was sandbagging. I doubt it, for a number of reasons, but it's possible they kept some tricks up their sleeve for the CCG.

We shall see.

?? Yards from scrimmage, passing yards, rushing yards was almost identical. Memphis won the turnover battle by 2 and returned the opening kick for a TD.
UC's backup QB made his first start.

Just my opinion, to me, Memphis seemed to be in control the whole game, even when the score was close, I never had the sense that they weren't going to win.

https://www.underdogdynasty.com/2019/12/...ti-memphis

(12-02-2019 11:59 AM)BullsFanInTX Wrote:  https://www.underdogdynasty.com/2019/12/...ti-memphis

I don't think Cincy has much of a chance to beat out a one-loss Boise. The most important factor in all of these determinations is "losses". If you have more losses, you need a compelling case to overcome that, and Cincy just doesn't have it. Let's look at the author's claims:

1) Cincy has an elite defense? Ohio State ran roughshod over them. But Ohio State runs roughshod over everyone! Well then explain the 35 first downs and 660 yards and 43 points racked up by .... ECU. I'm sorry, no elite defense gives up a billion points yards and first downs to ECU. ECU is abysmal, they just lost at home by 25 against a 3-8 team. I mean come on.

2) SOS .... Yes, Cincy has played a tougher SOS. But not that much tougher. Sagarin says its Cincy 70 vs Boise 88. Is 70 a tougher SOS than 88? Yes it is. Is it *much* different? No it isn't.

I mean, in the MC, the #70 team is Central Michigan. The #88 team is Syracuse. Is playing Central Michigan a bunch of times noticeably tougher than playing Syracuse a bunch of times? I can't say so.

3) Worst of all, Cincy has trended downward, not upward. They were at their *best* when they were blown out by Ohio State, not worst.

The miraculous win over ECU? That was November 2.

The miraculous win over USF? That was November 16.

The barely squeak by 15-13 triumph over Temple? That was November 23.

And now the loss to Memphis.

And that raises another point - the author kind of equates Boise's close calls with Cincy's. You can't do that. Cincy's close calls were other-wordly. They should have lost all three games vs ECU, USF, and Temple. They were *clearly* outplayed in all three games. They would have been lucky to win any one of them. That they won all three is near-miraculous. And two of these are bad teams we're talking about.

Boise had close calls, but nothing like that. Boise's close calls vs Wyoming and CSU were just that, close games that could have gone either way. Cincy's were *losses*. Cincy had no business winning any of them. You saw the USF game, that was ridiculous.

And speaking of losses, Boise could very well be 12-0. They barely lost to BYU. They statistically outplayed them, so you have to balance that kind of unlucky loss vs maybe one or two lucky wins. Cincy's two losses were decisive.

I don't think anyone with a straight face can say that any time recently Cincy has looked anything like an NY6 team. Maybe if they beat Memphis 50-0?