(12-01-2019 07:38 PM)DavidSt Wrote: The problem is this. Boise blow out win was against Portland State who almost beat Arkansas.
BYU best win was against Tennessee who took down South Carolina who took down Georgia.
Boise's best wins are Air Force, UNR, Hawaii and San Jose State. I put San Jose State here because they are stronger than what their record shows. Air Force's only 2 losses were to Navy and Boise State. Boise beat Air Force by double digit numbers. Navy did not. Navy did beat SMU, and SMU almost took Memphis down. I say that Memphis and Boise State are close together on their schedule. Wyoming lost to Tulsa, and Tulsa nearly took down the leaders of the west AAC. Boise beat Wyoming by double digit numbers. So, you have to look at the opponents that AAC and MWC have in common and the scores. Appalachian State lost to a rival in a rivalry game so that should be expected. Boise lost to a rival in a rivalry game to BYU. Memphis lost to Temple who is not really their rival to compete every year like the other two. That is the downside to Memphis right now.
IF Cincinnati beats ranked (ranked by the committe themselves) Memphis in the CCG and Boise beats Hawaii (currently #48 in the Massey Composite), here are the resumes for the two teams:
FPI Strength of Record (before those results are factored in):
Cincinnati 19th best, Boise State 21st best
So a metric comparable to what we presume the committee uses, advantage Cincinnati.
Wins, with Massey Composite this week, only 57 rankings compiled:
Cincinnati: #16, 24, 47, 60, 74, 81, 82, 85, 96, 117, 125
Boise State: #25, 48, 52, 55, 60, 63, 104,111,115,123,FCS
(I didn't double up #48 Hawaii, who would also presumably drop)
Definitely better quality wins up top for Cincinnati. A couple better wins for Boise for fourth, fifth, and sixth best wins, but big advantage to Cincinnati over the bottom of each schedule.
If the committee gets to common opponents, Marshall is Boise's fifth best win and Cincinnati's fourth best win; Boise eked out a one TD win at home, while Cincinnati blew out Marshall on the road. Again, advantage Cincinnati.
Overall Strength of Schedule:
Sagarin says Cincinnati is #70 and Boise State is #88; Massey says Cincinnati is #48 and Boise State is #84.
Losses:
Cincinnati would have a loss to #1, and a loss to #16 avenged in the CCG
Boise's loss is to #53 BYU
We'll see what the committee does, but to me, even the second loss to two ranked teams is better than a loss to a mediocre team.
What WOULD the committee do, looking at those two records? I don't know.
But it is far from ironclad that Boise gets the nod if the committee truly looks at the totality of the two records by the criteria the committee publically says they use. In fact, IF they do go by all those criteria, then a two-loss Cincinnati would/should/could have the advantage over Boise State.