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NY6 down to 3
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billybobby777 Offline
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Post: #1
NY6 down to 3
1. Memphis as 1 loss AAC Champ
2. Boise as 1 loss MWC champ
4. App St as 1 loss SB champ

Memphis with 1 home game controls their own destiny to the Cotton Bowl if they beat Cincinnati again. Lose and if Boise goes 12-1 then Boise gets it.
(This post was last modified: 11-30-2019 12:34 AM by billybobby777.)
11-24-2019 10:59 PM
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stever20 Online
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Post: #2
RE: NY6 down to 4
(11-24-2019 10:59 PM)billybobby777 Wrote:  1. Memphis as 1 loss AAC Champ
2. Cincinnati as 1 loss AAC Champ
3. Boise as 1 loss MWC champ
4. App St as 1 loss SB champ

Memphis with 2 home games controls their own destiny to the Cotton Bowl if they win out.

Memphis and Cincy both control their own destiny. They go 2-0, they are the G5 rep no matter what.....
11-24-2019 11:02 PM
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stever20 Online
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RE: NY6 down to 4
I'd add to that with everything where it is right now- we're down to only 5 teams who have any chance.....
1/2 Memphis/Cincy as a 1 loss AAC champ
3 Boise as a 1 loss MWC champ
4 App St as a 1 loss SB champ
5 Memphis/Cincy/Navy as a 2 loss AAC champ

MAC and CUSA are out already. 3-4 loss champions guaranteed.
Louisiana and Hawaii have no chance.
11-24-2019 11:18 PM
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Crayton Offline
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RE: NY6 down to 4
(11-24-2019 11:18 PM)stever20 Wrote:  I'd add to that with everything where it is right now- we're down to only 5 teams who have any chance.....
1/2 Memphis/Cincy as a 1 loss AAC champ
3 Boise as a 1 loss MWC champ
4 App St as a 1 loss SB champ
5 Memphis/Cincy/Navy as a 2 loss AAC champ

MAC and CUSA are out already. 3-4 loss champions guaranteed.
Louisiana and Hawaii have no chance.
6 If 2-loss Navy loses to Army... it defaults to another SEC/Big Ten team, right? LOL
11-25-2019 07:38 AM
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quo vadis Offline
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RE: NY6 down to 4
(11-24-2019 11:18 PM)stever20 Wrote:  I'd add to that with everything where it is right now- we're down to only 5 teams who have any chance.....
1/2 Memphis/Cincy as a 1 loss AAC champ
3 Boise as a 1 loss MWC champ
4 App St as a 1 loss SB champ
5 Memphis/Cincy/Navy as a 2 loss AAC champ

Yes, no reason for the OP to single out a one-loss Memphis over a one-loss Cincy, Cincy is in the exact same position as Memphis, both would be guaranteed the NY6 spot as a one-loss champ. And a two-loss AAC champ, even Navy, is still in the running. I'd actually have them even with a one-loss App State.

Of all the scenarios, IMO the closest call for the CFP committee would be a two-loss AAC champ vs a one-loss App State SB champ. That could go either way. In that case, we'd need to know how the AAC champ picked up that second loss, was it a close call or a blowout.

In that regard, the AAC would be in the strongest position if the two-loss champ is Memphis having lost a close game to Cincy, as they would have two close losses on their resume. The problem with Navy and Cincy is that they've played NY6-level teams and gotten blown out by them.
(This post was last modified: 11-25-2019 07:43 AM by quo vadis.)
11-25-2019 07:38 AM
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goofus Offline
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Post: #6
RE: NY6 down to 4
Lol, I was expecting a thread saying the number of CFP committee/coalition/Access Bowls had been reduced from 6 to 4 bowl games.
11-25-2019 08:42 AM
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msm96wolf Offline
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RE: NY6 down to 4
Well I doubt it happens, I would love Cinci beat Memphis, then Memphis beat Cinci, Boise Loss and App St be the only 12-1 G5 champ. Not sure they still get in but it would be cool to see App make it to the G5 NY6 being full FBS for only 5 years.
(This post was last modified: 11-25-2019 11:43 AM by msm96wolf.)
11-25-2019 11:42 AM
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CougarRed Offline
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RE: NY6 down to 4
(11-24-2019 11:02 PM)stever20 Wrote:  
(11-24-2019 10:59 PM)billybobby777 Wrote:  1. Memphis as 1 loss AAC Champ
2. Cincinnati as 1 loss AAC Champ
3. Boise as 1 loss MWC champ
4. App St as 1 loss SB champ

Memphis with 2 home games controls their own destiny to the Cotton Bowl if they win out.

Memphis and Cincy both control their own destiny. They go 2-0, they are the G5 rep no matter what.....

And I think if Memphis and Cincy split, the title game winner still might get it if the loss was close and the win was decisive.
11-25-2019 12:13 PM
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asucrutch23 Offline
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Post: #9
RE: NY6 down to 4
As much as I hate to say it, I almost feel like the only AAC scenario that gets App State in is for Navy to win the AAC, then lose to Army. Just don't have a good feeling about the committee putting us over a 2-loss AAC team. I think Navy would jump us unless they lose to the Black Knights. If Navy is right behind us on Tuesday night as I suspect they will be, it'll be tough to fend them off if they win out.

Of course for App State, Boise must lose to CSU or Hawaii too.
(This post was last modified: 11-25-2019 02:01 PM by asucrutch23.)
11-25-2019 01:54 PM
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quo vadis Offline
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Post: #10
RE: NY6 down to 4
(11-25-2019 01:54 PM)asucrutch23 Wrote:  As much as I hate to say it, I almost feel like the only AAC scenario that gets App State in is for Navy to win the AAC, then lose to Army. Just don't have a good feeling about the committee putting us over a 2-loss AAC team. I think Navy would jump us unless they lose to the Black Knights. If Navy is right behind us on Tuesday night as I suspect they will be, it'll be tough to fend them off if they win out.

Of course for App State, Boise must lose to CSU or Hawaii too.

You seem to be realistic. Some App fans seem to think that if that's the way it sorts out, the CFP won't even wait for Army-Navy but will immediately call it for App State during the regular CFP selection show.

IMO, they are fooling themselves. The CFP will surely wait until Army-Navy before making that call, even if ultimately they do go with App State. Given how strong the AAC has been, and that Navy will have had to beat a ranked Cincy team in the AAC title game, it will be very close.
11-25-2019 02:18 PM
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asucrutch23 Offline
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RE: NY6 down to 4
(11-25-2019 02:18 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(11-25-2019 01:54 PM)asucrutch23 Wrote:  As much as I hate to say it, I almost feel like the only AAC scenario that gets App State in is for Navy to win the AAC, then lose to Army. Just don't have a good feeling about the committee putting us over a 2-loss AAC team. I think Navy would jump us unless they lose to the Black Knights. If Navy is right behind us on Tuesday night as I suspect they will be, it'll be tough to fend them off if they win out.

Of course for App State, Boise must lose to CSU or Hawaii too.

You seem to be realistic. Some App fans seem to think that if that's the way it sorts out, the CFP won't even wait for Army-Navy but will immediately call it for App State during the regular CFP selection show.

IMO, they are fooling themselves. The CFP will surely wait until Army-Navy before making that call, even if ultimately they do go with App State. Given how strong the AAC has been, and that Navy will have had to beat a ranked Cincy team in the AAC title game, it will be very close.

Yep, it would be really close between a 1-loss SBC Champ App State and either:

2-loss Navy AAC Champ
2-loss Memphis AAC Champ
2-loss Cincy AAC Champ

Those 4 resumes would be extremely close.

They would certainly wait for Army-Navy in the Navy/App scenario. Any App fan who thinks otherwise is kidding themselves.

Not sure that they'd wait if it's 2-loss Navy vs. 1-loss Boise, but I could see it there too.
11-25-2019 02:32 PM
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toddjnsn Offline
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Post: #12
RE: NY6 down to 4
APP-ST Could Become the Rep:

1. Cinci beats Memphis, Navy wins & beats Cinci in AACC (+barely beating Houston & Army; two not-good teams)
2. Boise loses to Colorado State or loses to Hawaii in MWC
3. APP-ST wins out, 1L

Boise Goes:
1. Memphis beats Cinci, then Cinci beats Memphis in AACC (or Navy pulls thru)
11-25-2019 02:37 PM
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kurtrundell Offline
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Post: #13
RE: NY6 down to 4
So why again is it that the G5 teams have to meet certain criteria to qualify for a NY6 game but the Clemsons, Ohio States, Alabamas, and Oklahomas don't have to win conference championships to get in the CFP?
11-25-2019 04:10 PM
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slhNavy91 Offline
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RE: NY6 down to 4
(11-25-2019 02:32 PM)asucrutch23 Wrote:  
(11-25-2019 02:18 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(11-25-2019 01:54 PM)asucrutch23 Wrote:  As much as I hate to say it, I almost feel like the only AAC scenario that gets App State in is for Navy to win the AAC, then lose to Army. Just don't have a good feeling about the committee putting us over a 2-loss AAC team. I think Navy would jump us unless they lose to the Black Knights. If Navy is right behind us on Tuesday night as I suspect they will be, it'll be tough to fend them off if they win out.

Of course for App State, Boise must lose to CSU or Hawaii too.

You seem to be realistic. Some App fans seem to think that if that's the way it sorts out, the CFP won't even wait for Army-Navy but will immediately call it for App State during the regular CFP selection show.

IMO, they are fooling themselves. The CFP will surely wait until Army-Navy before making that call, even if ultimately they do go with App State. Given how strong the AAC has been, and that Navy will have had to beat a ranked Cincy team in the AAC title game, it will be very close.

Yep, it would be really close between a 1-loss SBC Champ App State and either:

2-loss Navy AAC Champ
2-loss Memphis AAC Champ
2-loss Cincy AAC Champ

Those 4 resumes would be extremely close.

They would certainly wait for Army-Navy in the Navy/App scenario. Any App fan who thinks otherwise is kidding themselves.

Not sure that they'd wait if it's 2-loss Navy vs. 1-loss Boise, but I could see it there too.

The resumes: Rankings (CFP at 25 or better, Massey Composite otherwise, obviously as of 25 November so some may change) of teams beaten by App State winning out, Boise State winning out, and a 2-loss Navy getting to and winning the championship game vs Cincinnati, then beating Army to bring the Commander in Chief's Trophy back to Annapolis:

Team A: #30,56,67,79,91,96,100,109,117,124,FCS
Team B: #29,49,57,58,59,61,107,111,120,122,FCS
Team C: #19,28,29,54,82,86,90,92,113,125,FCS

Team C is Navy, with two losses to #16 and #18 rather than one loss to a #50/#73
11-25-2019 04:14 PM
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asucrutch23 Offline
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RE: NY6 down to 4
(11-25-2019 04:14 PM)slhNavy91 Wrote:  
(11-25-2019 02:32 PM)asucrutch23 Wrote:  
(11-25-2019 02:18 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(11-25-2019 01:54 PM)asucrutch23 Wrote:  As much as I hate to say it, I almost feel like the only AAC scenario that gets App State in is for Navy to win the AAC, then lose to Army. Just don't have a good feeling about the committee putting us over a 2-loss AAC team. I think Navy would jump us unless they lose to the Black Knights. If Navy is right behind us on Tuesday night as I suspect they will be, it'll be tough to fend them off if they win out.

Of course for App State, Boise must lose to CSU or Hawaii too.

You seem to be realistic. Some App fans seem to think that if that's the way it sorts out, the CFP won't even wait for Army-Navy but will immediately call it for App State during the regular CFP selection show.

IMO, they are fooling themselves. The CFP will surely wait until Army-Navy before making that call, even if ultimately they do go with App State. Given how strong the AAC has been, and that Navy will have had to beat a ranked Cincy team in the AAC title game, it will be very close.

Yep, it would be really close between a 1-loss SBC Champ App State and either:

2-loss Navy AAC Champ
2-loss Memphis AAC Champ
2-loss Cincy AAC Champ

Those 4 resumes would be extremely close.

They would certainly wait for Army-Navy in the Navy/App scenario. Any App fan who thinks otherwise is kidding themselves.

Not sure that they'd wait if it's 2-loss Navy vs. 1-loss Boise, but I could see it there too.

The resumes: Rankings (CFP at 25 or better, Massey Composite otherwise, obviously as of 25 November so some may change) of teams beaten by App State winning out, Boise State winning out, and a 2-loss Navy getting to and winning the championship game vs Cincinnati, then beating Army to bring the Commander in Chief's Trophy back to Annapolis:

Team A: #30,56,67,79,91,96,100,109,117,124,FCS
Team B: #29,49,57,58,59,61,107,111,120,122,FCS
Team C: #19,28,29,54,82,86,90,92,113,125,FCS

Team C is Navy, with two losses to #16 and #18 rather than one loss to a #50/#73

Yeah, I think you guys would get it over us if you win out. That's why above I said I'm beginning to think the only scenario we get it is if you guys win the AAC then lose to Army.

Not sure the committee uses Massey though, and they seem to value our wins over UNC and South Carolina, even though those teams are worse than some of your conference wins. We'll just have to find out. Good luck.
11-25-2019 04:31 PM
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slhNavy91 Offline
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RE: NY6 down to 4
(11-25-2019 04:31 PM)asucrutch23 Wrote:  
(11-25-2019 04:14 PM)slhNavy91 Wrote:  
(11-25-2019 02:32 PM)asucrutch23 Wrote:  
(11-25-2019 02:18 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(11-25-2019 01:54 PM)asucrutch23 Wrote:  As much as I hate to say it, I almost feel like the only AAC scenario that gets App State in is for Navy to win the AAC, then lose to Army. Just don't have a good feeling about the committee putting us over a 2-loss AAC team. I think Navy would jump us unless they lose to the Black Knights. If Navy is right behind us on Tuesday night as I suspect they will be, it'll be tough to fend them off if they win out.

Of course for App State, Boise must lose to CSU or Hawaii too.

You seem to be realistic. Some App fans seem to think that if that's the way it sorts out, the CFP won't even wait for Army-Navy but will immediately call it for App State during the regular CFP selection show.

IMO, they are fooling themselves. The CFP will surely wait until Army-Navy before making that call, even if ultimately they do go with App State. Given how strong the AAC has been, and that Navy will have had to beat a ranked Cincy team in the AAC title game, it will be very close.

Yep, it would be really close between a 1-loss SBC Champ App State and either:

2-loss Navy AAC Champ
2-loss Memphis AAC Champ
2-loss Cincy AAC Champ

Those 4 resumes would be extremely close.

They would certainly wait for Army-Navy in the Navy/App scenario. Any App fan who thinks otherwise is kidding themselves.

Not sure that they'd wait if it's 2-loss Navy vs. 1-loss Boise, but I could see it there too.

The resumes: Rankings (CFP at 25 or better, Massey Composite otherwise, obviously as of 25 November so some may change) of teams beaten by App State winning out, Boise State winning out, and a 2-loss Navy getting to and winning the championship game vs Cincinnati, then beating Army to bring the Commander in Chief's Trophy back to Annapolis:

Team A: #30,56,67,79,91,96,100,109,117,124,FCS
Team B: #29,49,57,58,59,61,107,111,120,122,FCS
Team C: #19,28,29,54,82,86,90,92,113,125,FCS

Team C is Navy, with two losses to #16 and #18 rather than one loss to a #50/#73

Yeah, I think you guys would get it over us if you win out. That's why above I said I'm beginning to think the only scenario we get it is if you guys win the AAC then lose to Army.

Not sure the committee uses Massey though, and they seem to value our wins over UNC and South Carolina, even though those teams are worse than some of your conference wins. We'll just have to find out. Good luck.

I wouldn't want to bet on the committee's behavior either way...
11-25-2019 04:50 PM
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asucrutch23 Offline
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RE: NY6 down to 4
(11-25-2019 04:50 PM)slhNavy91 Wrote:  
(11-25-2019 04:31 PM)asucrutch23 Wrote:  
(11-25-2019 04:14 PM)slhNavy91 Wrote:  
(11-25-2019 02:32 PM)asucrutch23 Wrote:  
(11-25-2019 02:18 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  You seem to be realistic. Some App fans seem to think that if that's the way it sorts out, the CFP won't even wait for Army-Navy but will immediately call it for App State during the regular CFP selection show.

IMO, they are fooling themselves. The CFP will surely wait until Army-Navy before making that call, even if ultimately they do go with App State. Given how strong the AAC has been, and that Navy will have had to beat a ranked Cincy team in the AAC title game, it will be very close.

Yep, it would be really close between a 1-loss SBC Champ App State and either:

2-loss Navy AAC Champ
2-loss Memphis AAC Champ
2-loss Cincy AAC Champ

Those 4 resumes would be extremely close.

They would certainly wait for Army-Navy in the Navy/App scenario. Any App fan who thinks otherwise is kidding themselves.

Not sure that they'd wait if it's 2-loss Navy vs. 1-loss Boise, but I could see it there too.

The resumes: Rankings (CFP at 25 or better, Massey Composite otherwise, obviously as of 25 November so some may change) of teams beaten by App State winning out, Boise State winning out, and a 2-loss Navy getting to and winning the championship game vs Cincinnati, then beating Army to bring the Commander in Chief's Trophy back to Annapolis:

Team A: #30,56,67,79,91,96,100,109,117,124,FCS
Team B: #29,49,57,58,59,61,107,111,120,122,FCS
Team C: #19,28,29,54,82,86,90,92,113,125,FCS

Team C is Navy, with two losses to #16 and #18 rather than one loss to a #50/#73

Yeah, I think you guys would get it over us if you win out. That's why above I said I'm beginning to think the only scenario we get it is if you guys win the AAC then lose to Army.

Not sure the committee uses Massey though, and they seem to value our wins over UNC and South Carolina, even though those teams are worse than some of your conference wins. We'll just have to find out. Good luck.

I wouldn't want to bet on the committee's behavior either way...

That we can certainly agree on. If they have Navy right behind us tomorrow night, with (using Massey as you did) #75, #94, and #18 left to play, to our #100 and #30, we may be down for the count against any potential AAC resume except Navy Champ with a loss to Army.

If they leave you out completely and we're at say #22, that may give us a hint as to what they value. We're obviously watching ahead of us AND you guys behind us.
11-25-2019 05:01 PM
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quo vadis Offline
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Post: #18
RE: NY6 down to 4
(11-25-2019 04:10 PM)kurtrundell Wrote:  So why again is it that the G5 teams have to meet certain criteria to qualify for a NY6 game but the Clemsons, Ohio States, Alabamas, and Oklahomas don't have to win conference championships to get in the CFP?

The criteria for making the CFP playoffs is the same for P5 and G5 - be ranked in the CFP top four.

As for the other NY6, the P5 do have an advantage in that the winner of each P5 conference is guaranteed an NY6 game whereas only the top-ranked G5 champ is.

But, any G5 team, champ or not, can also make the NY6 as an at-large team, just like a non-champ P5 team can.
11-25-2019 05:12 PM
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BullsFanInTX Offline
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Post: #19
RE: NY6 down to 4
I personally believe that Navy would get in over App. Their 2 losses are to top 20 teams, and they would have a top 20 win on their resume. However, I agree it's debatable and it would be an interesting case study.
11-25-2019 05:31 PM
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App State Nation Offline
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RE: NY6 down to 4
(11-25-2019 05:31 PM)BullsFanInTX Wrote:  I personally believe that Navy would get in over App. Their 2 losses are to top 20 teams, and they would have a top 20 win on their resume. However, I agree it's debatable and it would be an interesting case study.

It would be very interesting to see what they value more. While Navy may have some wins better than UNC and South Carolina in that scenario (Air Force, SMU, Cincinnati), does the committee value going to 2 P5s (one of whom beat UGA) and winning on the road over AAC conference wins and a rivalry game at home?

Also, App would have 2 wins over Massey #33 Louisiana in that scenario. I think it would be extremely close.

I doubt we get that far, though. I see Memphis and Boise winning out.
(This post was last modified: 11-26-2019 08:37 AM by App State Nation.)
11-26-2019 08:37 AM
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