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NY6 down to 3
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Jjoey52 Offline
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Post: #61
RE: NY6 down to 3
(11-24-2019 10:59 PM)billybobby777 Wrote:  1. Memphis as 1 loss AAC Champ
2. Boise as 1 loss MWC champ
4. App St as 1 loss SB champ

Memphis with 1 home game controls their own destiny to the Cotton Bowl if they beat Cincinnati again. Lose and if Boise goes 12-1 then Boise gets it.

Now, what would make it interesting is Boise and Memphis both lose. Wold they take App over Cincy, I say yes.
11-30-2019 01:26 PM
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quo vadis Offline
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Post: #62
RE: NY6 down to 3
(11-30-2019 12:39 PM)slhNavy91 Wrote:  
(11-30-2019 10:51 AM)RUScarlets Wrote:  Boise St probably has the brand recognition more so than UC. If UC wins and splits with Memphis in a tight match, I would go with BSU. Not much different resume than UC, whose 42-0 showing against OSU, albeit early in the year, is not indicative of a worthy two loss champ getting in. Plus, UC does not have wins over SMU and Navy this year.

You can take UGa or Fla at two losses, Utah two loss, or a third place B1G team vs Boise and get a nice turnout in Jerry World.

Resumes:
Rankings of opponent for each team's wins. (CFP where in, otherwise Massey Composite from last week's results, with 117 rankings compiled)
Team A: #30,56,67,79,95,96,100,110,117,124,FCS
Team B: #29,49,57,58,59,63,108,111,120,122,FCS
Team C: #18,26,48,63,69,72,83,86,91,112,125

I think Team C's wins are clearly better at the top. A wash or Team B slight advantage in the middle, but Team A and B bottom are putrid. I didn't double up #30 for Team A (App over Louisiana in CCG) or #57 for Team B (Boise over Hawaii in CCG).

Losses:
A to #75
B to #45
C to #1 and #18, with #18 being avenged in the CCG.

Team B and C have a common opponent.
B eked by Marshall on their blue home turf 14-7; C blew out Marshall in Huntington 52-14

I don't see how anyone can think Team B (Boise) has a similar resume, but okay.
Team A is App State. Distant third here.

I agree that looking at wins, team C beats team B.

But, we all know that the single most important factor in deciding who goes to playoffs and big bowls is losses. And to me, the win advantage of C over B isn't enough to overcome 2 losses to 1.

But the CFP coukd think differently. I agree there is a decent chance that if it boils down to C vs B, C could get it. Maybe 40%?
11-30-2019 01:54 PM
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SoCalBobcat78 Offline
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Post: #63
RE: NY6 down to 3
(11-30-2019 12:59 PM)BePcr07 Wrote:  It is Memphis' to lose. If Cincinnati, Boise St, and Appalachian St win, the committee will almost assuredly go with Boise St. If Cincinnati and Appalachian St win and Boise St loses then I think they'll go with Cincinnati. I don't see a path for Appalachian St unless they win so decisively and both Memphis and Boise St lose that the Mountaineers jump the Bearcats.

This should not be hard for the committee. Memphis is in with a win. A Memphis loss gets Boise State in if they beat Hawaii. App State gets in with a win and losses by Memphis and Boise State. A win by Cincinnati and losses by Boise State and App State gets Cincinnati in.

App State is burdened with the Sun Belt schedule, but wins on the road at North Carolina and South Carolina were impressive.
11-30-2019 02:19 PM
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quo vadis Offline
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Post: #64
RE: NY6 down to 3
(11-30-2019 02:19 PM)SoCalBobcat78 Wrote:  
(11-30-2019 12:59 PM)BePcr07 Wrote:  It is Memphis' to lose. If Cincinnati, Boise St, and Appalachian St win, the committee will almost assuredly go with Boise St. If Cincinnati and Appalachian St win and Boise St loses then I think they'll go with Cincinnati. I don't see a path for Appalachian St unless they win so decisively and both Memphis and Boise St lose that the Mountaineers jump the Bearcats.

This should not be hard for the committee. Memphis is in with a win. A Memphis loss gets Boise State in if they beat Hawaii. App State gets in with a win and losses by Memphis and Boise State. A win by Cincinnati and losses by Boise State and App State gets Cincinnati in.

App State is burdened with the Sun Belt schedule, but wins on the road at North Carolina and South Carolina were impressive.

North Carolina is a 5-6 team, SC is now a 4-8 team.

Beating them is not impressive at all, unless you think there is something magical about the name on the jersey.
11-30-2019 03:13 PM
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BePcr07 Offline
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Post: #65
RE: NY6 down to 3
(11-30-2019 02:19 PM)SoCalBobcat78 Wrote:  
(11-30-2019 12:59 PM)BePcr07 Wrote:  It is Memphis' to lose. If Cincinnati, Boise St, and Appalachian St win, the committee will almost assuredly go with Boise St. If Cincinnati and Appalachian St win and Boise St loses then I think they'll go with Cincinnati. I don't see a path for Appalachian St unless they win so decisively and both Memphis and Boise St lose that the Mountaineers jump the Bearcats.

This should not be hard for the committee. Memphis is in with a win. A Memphis loss gets Boise State in if they beat Hawaii. App State gets in with a win and losses by Memphis and Boise State. A win by Cincinnati and losses by Boise State and App State gets Cincinnati in.

App State is burdened with the Sun Belt schedule, but wins on the road at North Carolina and South Carolina were impressive.

I’m not sure it’ll be that cut-and-dry but we’ll see. The committee clearly values the AAC over the other non-power conferences this year. This season alone the AAC has seen the committee rank: SMU, Memphis, Navy, and Cincinnati.
11-30-2019 03:29 PM
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quo vadis Offline
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Post: #66
RE: NY6 down to 3
(11-30-2019 03:29 PM)BePcr07 Wrote:  
(11-30-2019 02:19 PM)SoCalBobcat78 Wrote:  
(11-30-2019 12:59 PM)BePcr07 Wrote:  It is Memphis' to lose. If Cincinnati, Boise St, and Appalachian St win, the committee will almost assuredly go with Boise St. If Cincinnati and Appalachian St win and Boise St loses then I think they'll go with Cincinnati. I don't see a path for Appalachian St unless they win so decisively and both Memphis and Boise St lose that the Mountaineers jump the Bearcats.

This should not be hard for the committee. Memphis is in with a win. A Memphis loss gets Boise State in if they beat Hawaii. App State gets in with a win and losses by Memphis and Boise State. A win by Cincinnati and losses by Boise State and App State gets Cincinnati in.

App State is burdened with the Sun Belt schedule, but wins on the road at North Carolina and South Carolina were impressive.

I’m not sure it’ll be that cut-and-dry but we’ll see. The committee clearly values the AAC over the other non-power conferences this year. This season alone the AAC has seen the committee rank: SMU, Memphis, Navy, and Cincinnati.

.... and UCF could be ranked this week

IMO, it is unlikely that App State gets in over Cincy.
11-30-2019 03:33 PM
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SuperFlyBCat Offline
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Post: #67
RE: NY6 down to 3
(11-30-2019 02:19 PM)SoCalBobcat78 Wrote:  
(11-30-2019 12:59 PM)BePcr07 Wrote:  It is Memphis' to lose. If Cincinnati, Boise St, and Appalachian St win, the committee will almost assuredly go with Boise St. If Cincinnati and Appalachian St win and Boise St loses then I think they'll go with Cincinnati. I don't see a path for Appalachian St unless they win so decisively and both Memphis and Boise St lose that the Mountaineers jump the Bearcats.

This should not be hard for the committee. Memphis is in with a win. A Memphis loss gets Boise State in if they beat Hawaii. App State gets in with a win and losses by Memphis and Boise State. A win by Cincinnati and losses by Boise State and App State gets Cincinnati in.

App State is burdened with the Sun Belt schedule, but wins on the road at North Carolina and South Carolina were impressive.

Inclined to agree BSU gets in with a W and if UC beats Memphis. Who do you guys think the Orange takes SEC or BIG? Who does the Rose take among 2 loss Minny/Whisky/PSU? The SEC won't fill Independence, Birmingham and probably 2 of
depending on the pecking order.
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$4,294,681 Big 12 vs. SEC

Gator Bowl
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$3,168,292 SEC vs. ACC/Big Ten/Notre Dame

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11-30-2019 03:35 PM
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gulfcoastgal Offline
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Post: #68
RE: NY6 down to 3
(11-30-2019 01:54 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(11-30-2019 12:39 PM)slhNavy91 Wrote:  
(11-30-2019 10:51 AM)RUScarlets Wrote:  Boise St probably has the brand recognition more so than UC. If UC wins and splits with Memphis in a tight match, I would go with BSU. Not much different resume than UC, whose 42-0 showing against OSU, albeit early in the year, is not indicative of a worthy two loss champ getting in. Plus, UC does not have wins over SMU and Navy this year.

You can take UGa or Fla at two losses, Utah two loss, or a third place B1G team vs Boise and get a nice turnout in Jerry World.

Resumes:
Rankings of opponent for each team's wins. (CFP where in, otherwise Massey Composite from last week's results, with 117 rankings compiled)
Team A: #30,56,67,79,95,96,100,110,117,124,FCS
Team B: #29,49,57,58,59,63,108,111,120,122,FCS
Team C: #18,26,48,63,69,72,83,86,91,112,125

I think Team C's wins are clearly better at the top. A wash or Team B slight advantage in the middle, but Team A and B bottom are putrid. I didn't double up #30 for Team A (App over Louisiana in CCG) or #57 for Team B (Boise over Hawaii in CCG).

Losses:
A to #75
B to #45
C to #1 and #18, with #18 being avenged in the CCG.

Team B and C have a common opponent.
B eked by Marshall on their blue home turf 14-7; C blew out Marshall in Huntington 52-14

I don't see how anyone can think Team B (Boise) has a similar resume, but okay.
Team A is App State. Distant third here.

I agree that looking at wins, team C beats team B.

But, we all know that the single most important factor in deciding who goes to playoffs and big bowls is losses. And to me, the win advantage of C over B isn't enough to overcome 2 losses to 1.

But the CFP coukd think differently. I agree there is a decent chance that if it boils down to C vs B, C could get it. Maybe 40%?

They just might. A while back, I posted a snippet from an interview with the Ark St AD (now on the selection committee) where he said a team is not penalized for a loss to a top CFP team. Now, this also fits his scheduling philosophy so I don’t think he was trying to divulge info...more justifying payday games. Who knows for sure, but since he mentioned the particular situation now in play, it’ll be interesting to see how it plays out.
11-30-2019 03:38 PM
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SoCalBobcat78 Offline
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Post: #69
RE: NY6 down to 3
(11-30-2019 03:13 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(11-30-2019 02:19 PM)SoCalBobcat78 Wrote:  
(11-30-2019 12:59 PM)BePcr07 Wrote:  It is Memphis' to lose. If Cincinnati, Boise St, and Appalachian St win, the committee will almost assuredly go with Boise St. If Cincinnati and Appalachian St win and Boise St loses then I think they'll go with Cincinnati. I don't see a path for Appalachian St unless they win so decisively and both Memphis and Boise St lose that the Mountaineers jump the Bearcats.

This should not be hard for the committee. Memphis is in with a win. A Memphis loss gets Boise State in if they beat Hawaii. App State gets in with a win and losses by Memphis and Boise State. A win by Cincinnati and losses by Boise State and App State gets Cincinnati in.

App State is burdened with the Sun Belt schedule, but wins on the road at North Carolina and South Carolina were impressive.

North Carolina is a 5-6 team, SC is now a 4-8 team.

Beating them is not impressive at all, unless you think there is something magical about the name on the jersey.

Beating an in-state power conference team is always a positive and UNC, despite being 5-6, is 3-6 in games decided by less than seven points. That includes the one point loss to Clemson. South Carolina is an SEC team that won at Georgia. Two road wins against power conference schools is impressive.
11-30-2019 03:49 PM
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stever20 Offline
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Post: #70
RE: NY6 down to 3
(11-30-2019 03:35 PM)SuperFlyBCat Wrote:  
(11-30-2019 02:19 PM)SoCalBobcat78 Wrote:  
(11-30-2019 12:59 PM)BePcr07 Wrote:  It is Memphis' to lose. If Cincinnati, Boise St, and Appalachian St win, the committee will almost assuredly go with Boise St. If Cincinnati and Appalachian St win and Boise St loses then I think they'll go with Cincinnati. I don't see a path for Appalachian St unless they win so decisively and both Memphis and Boise St lose that the Mountaineers jump the Bearcats.

This should not be hard for the committee. Memphis is in with a win. A Memphis loss gets Boise State in if they beat Hawaii. App State gets in with a win and losses by Memphis and Boise State. A win by Cincinnati and losses by Boise State and App State gets Cincinnati in.

App State is burdened with the Sun Belt schedule, but wins on the road at North Carolina and South Carolina were impressive.

Inclined to agree BSU gets in with a W and if UC beats Memphis. Who do you guys think the Orange takes SEC or BIG? Who does the Rose take among 2 loss Minny/Whisky/PSU? The SEC won't fill Independence, Birmingham and probably 2 of
depending on the pecking order.
Music City
Nashville, TN
$5,650,000 ACC/Notre Dame vs. SEC

Belk
Charlotte, NC
$4,505,556 ACC/Notre Dame vs. SEC

Liberty
Memphis, TN
$4,294,681 Big 12 vs. SEC

Gator Bowl
Jacksonville, FL
$3,168,292 SEC vs. ACC/Big Ten/Notre Dame

Texas
Houston, TX
$6,300,000 Big 12 vs. SEC

You do understand that it's not an Orange choice. They have to take the highest rated team available from Big Ten/SEC(after Rose/Sugar selections).
11-30-2019 04:04 PM
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SuperFlyBCat Offline
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Post: #71
RE: NY6 down to 3
(11-30-2019 04:04 PM)stever20 Wrote:  
(11-30-2019 03:35 PM)SuperFlyBCat Wrote:  
(11-30-2019 02:19 PM)SoCalBobcat78 Wrote:  
(11-30-2019 12:59 PM)BePcr07 Wrote:  It is Memphis' to lose. If Cincinnati, Boise St, and Appalachian St win, the committee will almost assuredly go with Boise St. If Cincinnati and Appalachian St win and Boise St loses then I think they'll go with Cincinnati. I don't see a path for Appalachian St unless they win so decisively and both Memphis and Boise St lose that the Mountaineers jump the Bearcats.

This should not be hard for the committee. Memphis is in with a win. A Memphis loss gets Boise State in if they beat Hawaii. App State gets in with a win and losses by Memphis and Boise State. A win by Cincinnati and losses by Boise State and App State gets Cincinnati in.

App State is burdened with the Sun Belt schedule, but wins on the road at North Carolina and South Carolina were impressive.

Inclined to agree BSU gets in with a W and if UC beats Memphis. Who do you guys think the Orange takes SEC or BIG? Who does the Rose take among 2 loss Minny/Whisky/PSU? The SEC won't fill Independence, Birmingham and probably 2 of
depending on the pecking order.
Music City
Nashville, TN
$5,650,000 ACC/Notre Dame vs. SEC

Belk
Charlotte, NC
$4,505,556 ACC/Notre Dame vs. SEC

Liberty
Memphis, TN
$4,294,681 Big 12 vs. SEC

Gator Bowl
Jacksonville, FL
$3,168,292 SEC vs. ACC/Big Ten/Notre Dame

Texas
Houston, TX
$6,300,000 Big 12 vs. SEC

You do understand that it's not an Orange choice. They have to take the highest rated team available from Big Ten/SEC(after Rose/Sugar selections).

CFP committee or whatever so take a guess.
(This post was last modified: 11-30-2019 04:19 PM by SuperFlyBCat.)
11-30-2019 04:19 PM
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stever20 Offline
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Post: #72
RE: NY6 down to 3
(11-30-2019 04:19 PM)SuperFlyBCat Wrote:  
(11-30-2019 04:04 PM)stever20 Wrote:  
(11-30-2019 03:35 PM)SuperFlyBCat Wrote:  
(11-30-2019 02:19 PM)SoCalBobcat78 Wrote:  
(11-30-2019 12:59 PM)BePcr07 Wrote:  It is Memphis' to lose. If Cincinnati, Boise St, and Appalachian St win, the committee will almost assuredly go with Boise St. If Cincinnati and Appalachian St win and Boise St loses then I think they'll go with Cincinnati. I don't see a path for Appalachian St unless they win so decisively and both Memphis and Boise St lose that the Mountaineers jump the Bearcats.

This should not be hard for the committee. Memphis is in with a win. A Memphis loss gets Boise State in if they beat Hawaii. App State gets in with a win and losses by Memphis and Boise State. A win by Cincinnati and losses by Boise State and App State gets Cincinnati in.

App State is burdened with the Sun Belt schedule, but wins on the road at North Carolina and South Carolina were impressive.

Inclined to agree BSU gets in with a W and if UC beats Memphis. Who do you guys think the Orange takes SEC or BIG? Who does the Rose take among 2 loss Minny/Whisky/PSU? The SEC won't fill Independence, Birmingham and probably 2 of
depending on the pecking order.
Music City
Nashville, TN
$5,650,000 ACC/Notre Dame vs. SEC

Belk
Charlotte, NC
$4,505,556 ACC/Notre Dame vs. SEC

Liberty
Memphis, TN
$4,294,681 Big 12 vs. SEC

Gator Bowl
Jacksonville, FL
$3,168,292 SEC vs. ACC/Big Ten/Notre Dame

Texas
Houston, TX
$6,300,000 Big 12 vs. SEC

You do understand that it's not an Orange choice. They have to take the highest rated team available from Big Ten/SEC(after Rose/Sugar selections).

CFP committee or whatever so take a guess.

we have to see what happens today... It'll be between Georgia, Alabama, Florida, Penn St, Minnesota, Wisconsin. 2 of those go to Rose/Sugar. Top rated after goes to Orange. I'll guess Alabama.
11-30-2019 04:24 PM
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DavidSt Offline
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Post: #73
RE: NY6 down to 3
Hawaii is a much stronger opponent that Boise State beat earlier. Hawaii got a couple of P5 scalps.
11-30-2019 04:25 PM
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quo vadis Offline
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Post: #74
RE: NY6 down to 3
(11-30-2019 04:04 PM)stever20 Wrote:  
(11-30-2019 03:35 PM)SuperFlyBCat Wrote:  
(11-30-2019 02:19 PM)SoCalBobcat78 Wrote:  
(11-30-2019 12:59 PM)BePcr07 Wrote:  It is Memphis' to lose. If Cincinnati, Boise St, and Appalachian St win, the committee will almost assuredly go with Boise St. If Cincinnati and Appalachian St win and Boise St loses then I think they'll go with Cincinnati. I don't see a path for Appalachian St unless they win so decisively and both Memphis and Boise St lose that the Mountaineers jump the Bearcats.

This should not be hard for the committee. Memphis is in with a win. A Memphis loss gets Boise State in if they beat Hawaii. App State gets in with a win and losses by Memphis and Boise State. A win by Cincinnati and losses by Boise State and App State gets Cincinnati in.

App State is burdened with the Sun Belt schedule, but wins on the road at North Carolina and South Carolina were impressive.

Inclined to agree BSU gets in with a W and if UC beats Memphis. Who do you guys think the Orange takes SEC or BIG? Who does the Rose take among 2 loss Minny/Whisky/PSU? The SEC won't fill Independence, Birmingham and probably 2 of
depending on the pecking order.
Music City
Nashville, TN
$5,650,000 ACC/Notre Dame vs. SEC

Belk
Charlotte, NC
$4,505,556 ACC/Notre Dame vs. SEC

Liberty
Memphis, TN
$4,294,681 Big 12 vs. SEC

Gator Bowl
Jacksonville, FL
$3,168,292 SEC vs. ACC/Big Ten/Notre Dame

Texas
Houston, TX
$6,300,000 Big 12 vs. SEC

You do understand that it's not an Orange choice. They have to take the highest rated team available from Big Ten/SEC(after Rose/Sugar selections).

OB gets highest ranked among B1G, SEC, and Notre Dame.
11-30-2019 04:26 PM
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stever20 Offline
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Post: #75
RE: NY6 down to 3
(11-30-2019 04:26 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(11-30-2019 04:04 PM)stever20 Wrote:  
(11-30-2019 03:35 PM)SuperFlyBCat Wrote:  
(11-30-2019 02:19 PM)SoCalBobcat78 Wrote:  
(11-30-2019 12:59 PM)BePcr07 Wrote:  It is Memphis' to lose. If Cincinnati, Boise St, and Appalachian St win, the committee will almost assuredly go with Boise St. If Cincinnati and Appalachian St win and Boise St loses then I think they'll go with Cincinnati. I don't see a path for Appalachian St unless they win so decisively and both Memphis and Boise St lose that the Mountaineers jump the Bearcats.

This should not be hard for the committee. Memphis is in with a win. A Memphis loss gets Boise State in if they beat Hawaii. App State gets in with a win and losses by Memphis and Boise State. A win by Cincinnati and losses by Boise State and App State gets Cincinnati in.

App State is burdened with the Sun Belt schedule, but wins on the road at North Carolina and South Carolina were impressive.

Inclined to agree BSU gets in with a W and if UC beats Memphis. Who do you guys think the Orange takes SEC or BIG? Who does the Rose take among 2 loss Minny/Whisky/PSU? The SEC won't fill Independence, Birmingham and probably 2 of
depending on the pecking order.
Music City
Nashville, TN
$5,650,000 ACC/Notre Dame vs. SEC

Belk
Charlotte, NC
$4,505,556 ACC/Notre Dame vs. SEC

Liberty
Memphis, TN
$4,294,681 Big 12 vs. SEC

Gator Bowl
Jacksonville, FL
$3,168,292 SEC vs. ACC/Big Ten/Notre Dame

Texas
Houston, TX
$6,300,000 Big 12 vs. SEC

You do understand that it's not an Orange choice. They have to take the highest rated team available from Big Ten/SEC(after Rose/Sugar selections).

OB gets highest ranked among B1G, SEC, and Notre Dame.

true, but ND not close this year.
11-30-2019 04:40 PM
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DavidSt Offline
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Post: #76
RE: NY6 down to 3
Well, how bad a look to Cincinnati and Memphis right now if UConn upsets Temple? This would look bad.
11-30-2019 04:55 PM
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SuperFlyBCat Offline
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Post: #77
RE: NY6 down to 3
(11-30-2019 04:55 PM)DavidSt Wrote:  Well, how bad a look to Cincinnati and Memphis right now if UConn upsets Temple? This would look bad.

Meaningless.
11-30-2019 05:35 PM
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stever20 Offline
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Post: #78
RE: NY6 down to 3
Well it's 28-17 Temple, so DavidSt can rest easy.

Sorry it's

Memphis
Boise
Cincy

in that order
11-30-2019 05:37 PM
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dbackjon Offline
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Post: #79
RE: NY6 down to 3
Not sure there is anyone other than DavidSt disputing that if Memphis wins Saturday, they are the G5 Rep
11-30-2019 05:42 PM
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stever20 Offline
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RE: NY6 down to 3
(11-30-2019 05:42 PM)dbackjon Wrote:  Not sure there is anyone other than DavidSt disputing that if Memphis wins Saturday, they are the G5 Rep

yeah it's fairly clear to everyone but that guy.
11-30-2019 05:45 PM
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