(11-12-2018 10:50 AM)geosnooker2000 Wrote:  

(11-12-2018 09:05 AM)MemTigers1998 Wrote:  Down to 3 things needed to happen and Memphis controls 2 of the 3.

Houston over Tulane
Memphis over SMU
Memphis over Houston

and why the hell not.......

Memphis over UCF

Next step after that is, Utah State gets the access slot, all AAC bowl teams go to weedwhacker bowls, and the AAC TV contract negotiations go in the crapper.

At this point, I will retract my claim that Memphis winning the West with 4 losses is the worst thing that could happen to MEMPHIS for the long run. I will retract that because Houston no longer has a chance to be a ranked opponent for UCF. But *IF* we win the West, and *IF* we win the conference championship this year as a 4 loss team, we will be a spoiler for way more than just UCF. We will be cutting our nose off to spite our own face.

That is just wrong. UCF being undefeated or not has almost zero bearing on our tv contract. Our beating UCF definitely wouldn't fall into the category of cutting off our nose.

If you think the negotiations focus solely on UCF being undefeated, you are simply too myopic. I would say the Game Saturday has a much bigger impact. If the game is a major audience draw and GameDay is well attended, it would make much more of an impression on ESPN than UCF going undefeated. If you aren't at home watching that game and encouraging everyone you know to do the same, then I would say that is far more detrimental to our tv negotiations than anything on the field. ESPN hates UCF right now, they might even reward our conference for knocking them off and removing the fly from their beloved ointment.

BUT... let's just say you are correct. Not only should we cheer for UCF to go undefeated, we should all cheer for Michigan (or Georgia if they can qualify) to win the Playoff Championship. Because, once again, an undefeated UCF might just win the computer poll over a 1 loss Playoff Champion... once again, the computer poll National Champion would be UCF!! Go Blue!!!

"If the american conference was smart and has any control on the officials, they make sure ucf wins out."

So "smart" equals violate the free competitiveness of the sport? Make it like WWE?

(11-12-2018 10:50 AM)geosnooker2000 Wrote:  

(11-12-2018 09:05 AM)MemTigers1998 Wrote:  Down to 3 things needed to happen and Memphis controls 2 of the 3.

Houston over Tulane
Memphis over SMU
Memphis over Houston

and why the hell not.......

Memphis over UCF

Next step after that is, Utah State gets the access slot, all AAC bowl teams go to weedwhacker bowls, and the AAC TV contract negotiations go in the crapper.

At this point, I will retract my claim that Memphis winning the West with 4 losses is the worst thing that could happen to MEMPHIS for the long run. I will retract that because Houston no longer has a chance to be a ranked opponent for UCF. But *IF* we win the West, and *IF* we win the conference championship this year as a 4 loss team, we will be a spoiler for way more than just UCF. We will be cutting our nose off to spite our own face.

C'mon man!

It's bordering on insanity to claim we should throw a game.

I understand your big picture point, but don't think it is accurate. Think of this, if UCF continues to beat everybody in the conference, the less those wins "count" in the eyes of wider CFB community.

For us to finally beat UCF, the first time as a D-1 school, and win the Conf Championship would certainly mean more for our program than would them playing in the Access Bowl where hardly anybody but the other team's fans would care. It would be "they beat a bunch of nobodies to get there", "they weren't tested", "they weren't beaten up playing tough competition", "they had an easy path", etc. They didn't get any cred for beating Auburn last year.

Sure, it's a much bigger bowl paycheck, but other than UCF, the other schools get a small percentage, don't they?

(11-12-2018 04:23 PM)Herff Tiger Wrote:  "If the american conference was smart and has any control on the officials, they make sure ucf wins out."

So "smart" equals violate the free competitiveness of the sport? Make it like WWE?

they pretty much did that the first time we played. I'll never forget that BS non PI to end the game.

If UCF wins out it helps no one except UCF. The conference needs to show that there is some parity at least in the top 4-5 teams, and those teams regularly beat Power 5 teams, for there to be any argument that there should be a Power 6. Fans support being what it is, regardless of the wins, is going to be a tough hurdle to get over when trying to sell the American as a power conference.

If UCF continues to beat everyone in the conference, they, and only UCF, will be considered when one of the Power 5. Beating UCF in football and rebuilding our brand in basketball might get us considered if the Big 12 wants to add 2. However, we have been down this road before and the snobs of the Big 12, which includes Baylor, which looks the other way when their athletes misbehave, and Kansas, which looks like they have been buying players for years, will once again find the Memphis Tigers unworthy of being in their club. As a Tiger fan, I am not sure I want us to be associated with a league that harbors fans and administrators that believe that winning a any cost is all that matters. At the moment we are where we belong and are making great progress. The American is by far the best of the group of 5.

(11-12-2018 04:23 PM)Herff Tiger Wrote:  "If the american conference was smart and has any control on the officials, they make sure ucf wins out."

So "smart" equals violate the free competitiveness of the sport? Make it like WWE?

They had control of the officials when they played us. Didn't you watch the game ?

(11-11-2018 12:57 PM)Herff Tiger Wrote:  

(10-20-2018 12:02 PM)Herff Tiger Wrote:  UPDATED 11/10 games

Houston (4-2)
wins: Tulsa, East Carolina, Navy, USF
losses: SMU, Temple
remaining: Tulane, @ Memphis

SMU (4-2)
wins: Navy, Tulane, Houston, UConn
losses: UCF, Cincinnati
remaining: Memphis, @ Tulsa

Tulane (4-2)
wins: #@$&@#!!!!, Tulsa, USF, ECU
losses: Cincinnati, SMU
remaining: @ Houston, Navy

Memphis (3-3)
wins: UConn, East Carolina, Tulsa
losses: Navy, Tulane, UCF
remaining: @ SMU, Houston

Navy (1-5)
wins: #@$&@#!!!!
losses: SMU, Temple, Houston, Cincinnati, UCF
remaining: Tulsa, @ Tulane

Tulsa (1-5)
wins: UConn
losses: Temple, Houston, USF, Tulane, Memphis
remaining: @ Navy, SMU

OK now, this has definitely gotten interesting. I had previously been looking at this as how it could come down to us tied with Houston and SMU, with us winning out and thus holding the tiebreaker over each of them. Now, with the tiebreaker rules explained, we need to beat SMU and Houston, and have Houston beat Tulane, then we win the West Division.

The trickiest part of that seems to be our D stopping Houston enough for us to outscore them. (that's a sure-fire jinx statement that will result in us losing to SMU)

With that other thread quoting the Tulane fan from their board, it seems like we need SMU to also lose to Tulsa or else they would only have 1 division loss and thus beat us out. That sounds like it would be right, not simply total conference losses.

We're hosed.

(11-13-2018 10:31 AM)Herff Tiger Wrote:  

(11-11-2018 12:57 PM)Herff Tiger Wrote:  

(10-20-2018 12:02 PM)Herff Tiger Wrote:  UPDATED 11/10 games

Houston (4-2)
wins: Tulsa, East Carolina, Navy, USF
losses: SMU, Temple
remaining: Tulane, @ Memphis

SMU (4-2)
wins: Navy, Tulane, Houston, UConn
losses: UCF, Cincinnati
remaining: Memphis, @ Tulsa

Tulane (4-2)
wins: #@$&@#!!!!, Tulsa, USF, ECU
losses: Cincinnati, SMU
remaining: @ Houston, Navy

Memphis (3-3)
wins: UConn, East Carolina, Tulsa
losses: Navy, Tulane, UCF
remaining: @ SMU, Houston

Navy (1-5)
wins: #@$&@#!!!!
losses: SMU, Temple, Houston, Cincinnati, UCF
remaining: Tulsa, @ Tulane

Tulsa (1-5)
wins: UConn
losses: Temple, Houston, USF, Tulane, Memphis
remaining: @ Navy, SMU

OK now, this has definitely gotten interesting. I had previously been looking at this as how it could come down to us tied with Houston and SMU, with us winning out and thus holding the tiebreaker over each of them. Now, with the tiebreaker rules explained, we need to beat SMU and Houston, and have Houston beat Tulane, then we win the West Division.

The trickiest part of that seems to be our D stopping Houston enough for us to outscore them. (that's a sure-fire jinx statement that will result in us losing to SMU)

With that other thread quoting the Tulane fan from their board, it seems like we need SMU to also lose to Tulsa or else they would only have 1 division loss and thus beat us out. That sounds like it would be right, not simply total conference losses.

We're hosed.

Incorrect. You have to apply "C" (multiple [more than 2] tied teams) before you go back to applying "B" where the division winning percentages are applied.

http://theamerican.org/documents/2018/10...licies.pdf

(Check out page 2 of the PDF)

(11-13-2018 10:31 AM)Herff Tiger Wrote:  

(11-11-2018 12:57 PM)Herff Tiger Wrote:  

(10-20-2018 12:02 PM)Herff Tiger Wrote:  UPDATED 11/10 games

Houston (4-2)
wins: Tulsa, East Carolina, Navy, USF
losses: SMU, Temple
remaining: Tulane, @ Memphis

SMU (4-2)
wins: Navy, Tulane, Houston, UConn
losses: UCF, Cincinnati
remaining: Memphis, @ Tulsa

Tulane (4-2)
wins: #@$&@#!!!!, Tulsa, USF, ECU
losses: Cincinnati, SMU
remaining: @ Houston, Navy

Memphis (3-3)
wins: UConn, East Carolina, Tulsa
losses: Navy, Tulane, UCF
remaining: @ SMU, Houston

Navy (1-5)
wins: #@$&@#!!!!
losses: SMU, Temple, Houston, Cincinnati, UCF
remaining: Tulsa, @ Tulane

Tulsa (1-5)
wins: UConn
losses: Temple, Houston, USF, Tulane, Memphis
remaining: @ Navy, SMU

OK now, this has definitely gotten interesting. I had previously been looking at this as how it could come down to us tied with Houston and SMU, with us winning out and thus holding the tiebreaker over each of them. Now, with the tiebreaker rules explained, we need to beat SMU and Houston, and have Houston beat Tulane, then we win the West Division.

The trickiest part of that seems to be our D stopping Houston enough for us to outscore them. (that's a sure-fire jinx statement that will result in us losing to SMU)

With that other thread quoting the Tulane fan from their board, it seems like we need SMU to also lose to Tulsa or else they would only have 1 division loss and thus beat us out. That sounds like it would be right, not simply total conference losses.

We're hosed.

Why would you even go to a Tulane board, much less quote from it?!


They are wrong though.

(11-12-2018 03:53 PM)tigernole79 Wrote:  

(11-12-2018 10:50 AM)geosnooker2000 Wrote:  

(11-12-2018 09:05 AM)MemTigers1998 Wrote:  Down to 3 things needed to happen and Memphis controls 2 of the 3.

Houston over Tulane
Memphis over SMU
Memphis over Houston

and why the hell not.......

Memphis over UCF

Next step after that is, Utah State gets the access slot, all AAC bowl teams go to weedwhacker bowls, and the AAC TV contract negotiations go in the crapper.

At this point, I will retract my claim that Memphis winning the West with 4 losses is the worst thing that could happen to MEMPHIS for the long run. I will retract that because Houston no longer has a chance to be a ranked opponent for UCF. But *IF* we win the West, and *IF* we win the conference championship this year as a 4 loss team, we will be a spoiler for way more than just UCF. We will be cutting our nose off to spite our own face.

That is just wrong. UCF being undefeated or not has almost zero bearing on our tv contract. Our beating UCF definitely wouldn't fall into the category of cutting off our nose.

It's not the "undefeated" part of UCF I'm talking about. It's is their tenuous lead in the rankings over (at this point) Utah State. I would MUCH rather prefer UCF in particular lose to Cincinnati SO LONG AS Cincinnati jumps Utah State in the rankings. IOW, the most important thing from ANY AAC TEAM'S perspective is that the Access spot goes to an AAC team every year, but especially this year. And It's not about the money from the bowl. It is about the ability of Aresco to point to the results of the Access spot and be able to say "See? We (the AAC) are closer to a P5 than a G5."

(11-12-2018 03:53 PM)tigernole79 Wrote:  If you think the negotiations focus solely on UCF being undefeated, you are simply too myopic. I would say the Game Saturday has a much bigger impact. If the game is a major audience draw and GameDay is well attended, it would make much more of an impression on ESPN than UCF going undefeated. If you aren't at home watching that game and encouraging everyone you know to do the same, then I would say that is far more detrimental to our tv negotiations than anything on the field. ESPN hates UCF right now, they might even reward our conference for knocking them off and removing the fly from their beloved ointment.

BUT... let's just say you are correct. Not only should we cheer for UCF to go undefeated, we should all cheer for Michigan (or Georgia if they can qualify) to win the Playoff Championship. Because, once again, an undefeated UCF might just win the computer poll over a 1 loss Playoff Champion... once again, the computer poll National Champion would be UCF!! Go Blue!!!

No, I DON'T think it is about UCF going undefeated (as I explained above). It is about the AAC being on the lips of the pundits and commentators and within the pens and computer keys of the sports writers AT THE EXPENSE of all other G5 conferences until this Feb. where we get our next deal for TV.

And I would NOT like to see a one-loss team win the invitational, I would NOT like for the Colley poll to name UCF champions again this year. I would much prefer the success be spread out amongst the AAC. Because if the success gets too concentrated, it starts to be a Boise situation, but worse, where this version of Boise (UCF) has academics and market share good enough and big enough to get them snatched up by a P5, and there we go down to the G5 level again.

(11-13-2018 11:21 AM)geosnooker2000 Wrote:  

(11-12-2018 03:53 PM)tigernole79 Wrote:  

(11-12-2018 10:50 AM)geosnooker2000 Wrote:  

(11-12-2018 09:05 AM)MemTigers1998 Wrote:  Down to 3 things needed to happen and Memphis controls 2 of the 3.

Houston over Tulane
Memphis over SMU
Memphis over Houston

and why the hell not.......

Memphis over UCF

Next step after that is, Utah State gets the access slot, all AAC bowl teams go to weedwhacker bowls, and the AAC TV contract negotiations go in the crapper.

At this point, I will retract my claim that Memphis winning the West with 4 losses is the worst thing that could happen to MEMPHIS for the long run. I will retract that because Houston no longer has a chance to be a ranked opponent for UCF. But *IF* we win the West, and *IF* we win the conference championship this year as a 4 loss team, we will be a spoiler for way more than just UCF. We will be cutting our nose off to spite our own face.

That is just wrong. UCF being undefeated or not has almost zero bearing on our tv contract. Our beating UCF definitely wouldn't fall into the category of cutting off our nose.

It's not the "undefeated" part of UCF I'm talking about. It's is their tenuous lead in the rankings over (at this point) Utah State. I would MUCH rather prefer UCF in particular lose to Cincinnati SO LONG AS Cincinnati jumps Utah State in the rankings. IOW, the most important thing from ANY AAC TEAM'S perspective is that the Access spot goes to an AAC team every year, but especially this year. And It's not about the money from the bowl. It is about the ability of Aresco to point to the results of the Access spot and be able to say "See? We (the AAC) are closer to a P5 than a G5."

(11-12-2018 03:53 PM)tigernole79 Wrote:  If you think the negotiations focus solely on UCF being undefeated, you are simply too myopic. I would say the Game Saturday has a much bigger impact. If the game is a major audience draw and GameDay is well attended, it would make much more of an impression on ESPN than UCF going undefeated. If you aren't at home watching that game and encouraging everyone you know to do the same, then I would say that is far more detrimental to our tv negotiations than anything on the field. ESPN hates UCF right now, they might even reward our conference for knocking them off and removing the fly from their beloved ointment.

BUT... let's just say you are correct. Not only should we cheer for UCF to go undefeated, we should all cheer for Michigan (or Georgia if they can qualify) to win the Playoff Championship. Because, once again, an undefeated UCF might just win the computer poll over a 1 loss Playoff Champion... once again, the computer poll National Champion would be UCF!! Go Blue!!!

No, I DON'T think it is about UCF going undefeated (as I explained above). It is about the AAC being on the lips of the pundits and commentators and within the pens and computer keys of the sports writers AT THE EXPENSE of all other G5 conferences until this Feb. where we get our next deal for TV.

And I would NOT like to see a one-loss team win the invitational, I would NOT like for the Colley poll to name UCF champions again this year. I would much prefer the success be spread out amongst the AAC. Because if the success gets too concentrated, it starts to be a Boise situation, but worse, where this version of Boise (UCF) has academics and market share good enough and big enough to get them snatched up by a P5, and there we go down to the G5 level again.

So, you don't care if Cincy beats UCF and wins the AAC?
Being Boise State hasn't helped them in any talks of expansion, other than the Big East.

I don't think the AAC disappears from the lips of pundits regardless of if Memphis were to win the AAC. I think this Saturday is a sign of just how much progress our conference has really made.

(11-13-2018 04:48 PM)tigernole79 Wrote:  So, you don't care if Cincy beats UCF and wins the AAC?
Being Boise State hasn't helped them in any talks of expansion, other than the Big East.

No..... SO LONG AS.... Cincy jumps Utah State. That is the most important point.

And I concur that Boise has not had any run with expansion, but I attribute that to their location and their market. It's a whole different kettle of fish with someone like UCF with their school size, alumni base, and market size.

the door is now open

(11-16-2018 10:46 AM)MemTigers1998 Wrote:  the door is now open

100% in our control. If this doesn't motivate the team to give their best effort, nothing will.

(11-13-2018 11:21 AM)geosnooker2000 Wrote:  No, I DON'T think it is about UCF going undefeated (as I explained above). It is about the AAC being on the lips of the pundits and commentators and within the pens and computer keys of the sports writers AT THE EXPENSE of all other G5 conferences until this Feb. where we get our next deal for TV.

And I would NOT like to see a one-loss team win the invitational, I would NOT like for the Colley poll to name UCF champions again this year. I would much prefer the success be spread out amongst the AAC. Because if the success gets too concentrated, it starts to be a Boise situation, but worse, where this version of Boise (UCF) has academics and market share good enough and big enough to get them snatched up by a P5, and there we go down to the G5 level again.

Geo, there's so much wrong about your opinions on the value of an Access Bowl invite, TV contracts and the value of UCF going undefeated, it's hard to know where to start.

UCF went undefeated last year and beat Auburn in the Peach Bowl. Is that helping UCF one iota this year, since they are again undefeated, with the selection committee for the CFP? Of course not. No G5 team will ever make a 4-team CFP.

And you keep saying we will have our next TV deal will be done by February, as if that is fact. It is not fact, it is merely one of many possibilities. February 1st starts an exclusive 30-day window that ESPN and the AAC have to negotiate to extend the AAC deal, which ends July 1st of 2020. If the two sides don't reach a deal, then the AAC can negotiate with all the other broadcast networks like Fox, NBC, and CBS and the streamers like Amazon, Google, and Facebook, as well as continue to negotiate with ESPN.

Last, you keep acting like this next access bowl matters so much for the next TV deal. It doesn't. ESPN had around 100 million subscribers when the current AAC deal was signed, now ESPN has around 85 million subscribers. These are the kind of data points that matter, not a bowl game which doesn't even match 2 AAC teams against each other.

So if We win out against SMU and Houston, and Tulane beats Navy, there could theoretically be a 4 way tie for top spot in the West with teams sitting at 5-3. What is the tiebreaker for 3 or 4 teams being tied? It seems like we'd hold the tiebreaker vs SMU and Houston, but Tulane has a tiebreaker over us.

(11-16-2018 11:40 AM)WColt45 Wrote:  So if We win out against SMU and Houston, and Tulane beats Navy, there could theoretically be a 4 way tie for top spot in the West with teams sitting at 5-3. What is the tiebreaker for 3 or 4 teams being tied? It seems like we'd hold the tiebreaker vs SMU and Houston, but Tulane has a tiebreaker over us.

I think if we win out, it's ours - according to what I understand about the 3-way and 4-way tiebreakers. But I admit I have not researched this myself - just relying on what the CA is saying.

(11-16-2018 12:17 PM)Tiger87 Wrote:  

(11-16-2018 11:40 AM)WColt45 Wrote:  So if We win out against SMU and Houston, and Tulane beats Navy, there could theoretically be a 4 way tie for top spot in the West with teams sitting at 5-3. What is the tiebreaker for 3 or 4 teams being tied? It seems like we'd hold the tiebreaker vs SMU and Houston, but Tulane has a tiebreaker over us.

I think if we win out, it's ours - according to what I understand about the 3-way and 4-way tiebreakers. But I admit I have not researched this myself - just relying on what the CA is saying.

Tulane has essentially been eliminated from winning the division. The division now can only be won by 3 teams: Memphis, Houston, SMU

You are correct that if Memphis wins out they are division champs

If SMU wins out they are division champs.

Houston needs to beat memphis and hope SMU loses a game.

Wouldn’t Tulane be ahead of us if they beat navy?

(11-16-2018 11:25 AM)Tigx Wrote:  

(11-13-2018 11:21 AM)geosnooker2000 Wrote:  No, I DON'T think it is about UCF going undefeated (as I explained above). It is about the AAC being on the lips of the pundits and commentators and within the pens and computer keys of the sports writers AT THE EXPENSE of all other G5 conferences until this Feb. where we get our next deal for TV.

And I would NOT like to see a one-loss team win the invitational, I would NOT like for the Colley poll to name UCF champions again this year. I would much prefer the success be spread out amongst the AAC. Because if the success gets too concentrated, it starts to be a Boise situation, but worse, where this version of Boise (UCF) has academics and market share good enough and big enough to get them snatched up by a P5, and there we go down to the G5 level again.

Geo, there's so much wrong about your opinions on the value of an Access Bowl invite, TV contracts and the value of UCF going undefeated, it's hard to know where to start.

UCF went undefeated last year and beat Auburn in the Peach Bowl. Is that helping UCF one iota this year, since they are again undefeated, with the selection committee for the CFP? Of course not. No G5 team will ever make a 4-team CFP.

And you keep saying we will have our next TV deal will be done by February, as if that is fact. It is not fact, it is merely one of many possibilities. February 1st starts an exclusive 30-day window that ESPN and the AAC have to negotiate to extend the AAC deal, which ends July 1st of 2020. If the two sides don't reach a deal, then the AAC can negotiate with all the other broadcast networks like Fox, NBC, and CBS and the streamers like Amazon, Google, and Facebook, as well as continue to negotiate with ESPN.

Last, you keep acting like this next access bowl matters so much for the next TV deal. It doesn't. ESPN had around 100 million subscribers when the current AAC deal was signed, now ESPN has around 85 million subscribers. These are the kind of data points that matter, not a bowl game which doesn't even match 2 AAC teams against each other.

The only way a G5 makes the playoff is to schedule a couple of OOC games against ranked teams and win along with the rest of its conference mates not stinking it up OOC.

We are guilty of stinking OOC this year along with most of the AAC as well.