(10-26-2026 05:02 PM)Gemofthehills Wrote:  12-1 New Mexico gets the bid before a 11-2 Oregon St.
Nothing on the resume to warrant a pass over of New Mexico

Likely 2 wins over Boise?

Dont think so, New Mexico playing Oklahoma to a close game will outweigh the two losses. Plus Oregon State will only have Boise St to boast as a good win.

The other thing which could make all of the a crap shoot, the committee probably wont give two rips which one is selected. In most of their minds it will who do we give an easy W too. Hopefully whoever gets the bid wins.

(10-25-2026 07:16 AM)HP-TBDPITL Wrote:  Week 9 Games of the week

FAU @ North Texas 7:30 Thursday
New Mexico @ SJ State 4:00 Saturday
Army @ Memphis 8:00 Saturday
Oregon St @ Fresno St 11:00 PM Saturday

North Texas survives in a shootout...and in a shocker JMU falls at home to Troy.

More big games on Saturday that could influence the CFP race.

(10-26-2026 01:25 AM)DavidSt Wrote:  Yes,but Boise State beat Memphis, then Tulane put a smack down on Memphis and UTSA put asmack down on Tulane. I put UTSA as number 1, New Mexico 2, JMU 3 dropping out of number 1, Liberty 4 and Boise State 5. PAC 12 is the weakest conference.

JMU doesn't have just 2 losses but they have 2 conference losses and unlikely to even make the championship game.

Boise State is the clear #1 as they will likely be ranked by the CFP when those rankings come out this week.

(10-31-2026 09:40 AM)Kittonhead Wrote:  

(10-26-2026 01:25 AM)DavidSt Wrote:  Yes,but Boise State beat Memphis, then Tulane put a smack down on Memphis and UTSA put asmack down on Tulane. I put UTSA as number 1, New Mexico 2, JMU 3 dropping out of number 1, Liberty 4 and Boise State 5. PAC 12 is the weakest conference.

JMU doesn't have just 2 losses but they have 2 conference losses and unlikely to even make the championship game.

Boise State is the clear #1 as they will likely be ranked by the CFP when those rankings come out this week.

Texas State might just take down Boise tonight. Their run game is good. If Boise’s front can’t slow them down, the G auto-bid race is going to get interesting.

If Boise goes down Im out of my for sure it down to these 4 a few weeks back. If Tx St wins whoever it was can give me hell for a few post.

New Mexico and UTSA would be in the driver's seat if Boise loses.

(10-31-2026 02:34 PM)DavidSt Wrote:  New Mexico and UTSA would be in the driver's seat if Boise loses.

That seems reasonable.

Army lost to Memphis and is gone. Oregon State is losing to Fresno State.

Texas St on a 36-0 run in the 2nd half rn. 39-28 Texas St in the 4th.

Fresno St. up 31-16 on Oregon St. in the 3rd. I turned down free tickets b/c i'm having an early bday party. Fam too busy next wk.

New Mexico 6-1 Won
UTSA 7-1
JMU 7-1 Lost
Liberty 6-1 Won
Boise State 6-1 Losing
App. State 5-2 Lost
Oregon State 5-2 Losing
Army 5-2 Lost
Toledo 6-2
NDSU 6-2 Won
Jacksonville State 5-2
Memphis 6-2 Won
Ohio 6-2
La. Tech 5-2 Won
North Texas 5-2
USF 5-2 Won
Air Force 5-2 Won
FAU 5-2
Western Michigan 5-3 Won
UNLV 4-3 Winning
Buffalo 5-3
Miami 5-3

(11-01-2026 12:27 AM)Fresno St. Alum Wrote:  Texas St on a 36-0 run in the 2nd half rn. 39-28 Texas St in the 4th.

Fresno St. up 31-16 on Oregon St. in the 3rd. I turned down free tickets b/c i'm having an early bday party. Fam too busy next wk.

They escaped but that Madsen injury for Boise St. could be a problem moving forward.

Oregon State lost.

(11-01-2026 01:59 AM)Kittonhead Wrote:  

(11-01-2026 12:27 AM)Fresno St. Alum Wrote:  Texas St on a 36-0 run in the 2nd half rn. 39-28 Texas St in the 4th.

Fresno St. up 31-16 on Oregon St. in the 3rd. I turned down free tickets b/c i'm having an early bday party. Fam too busy next wk.

They escaped but that Madsen injury for Boise St. could be a problem moving forward.

Their backup QB led 3 straight TD drives, I'm more concerned about their Secondary with OSU and a potential TXST rematch.

UTSA 7-1
New Mexico 7-1
Liberty 7-1
Boise State 7-1
JMU 7-2
NDSU 7-2
Jacksonville State 6-2
Memphis 7-2
USF 7-2
North Texas 6-2
Ohio 6-2
Toledo 6-2
La. Tech 6-2
Army 5-3
Oregon State 5-3
App State 5-3
FAU 5-3
Miami 5-3
Buffalo 5-3
Western Michigan 5-3
Wyoming 5-3
UNLV 5-3
Fresno State 5-3
Marshall 5-3
La.-Lafayette 5-3

Boise pulled even with UTSA with a closer-than-desired victory over Texas State. The below list is now exhaustive. North Texas and New Mexico are the only other teams with a chance for a natural Top 25 ranking, though human Top 25s often include a token G6.

Memphis, La Tech, USF, Oregon St, and Air Force are the longshots.

#AvgRnk Bid/Bye% (record)+CCG Team (likelihood of 10k)
Leaders
1918 #14.0 87/0% (11-1)+W UTSA (1772)
1905 #14.9 86/0% (11-1)+W Boise St (3596)
Contenders
1824 #23.0 49/0% (11-1)+L Boise St (639)
1828 #23.2 32/0% (11-1)+L UTSA (423)
1814 #24.0 46/0% (10-2)+W Boise St (1110)
1818 #24.0 33/0% (10-2)+W UTSA (759)
1811 #24.6 32/0% (10-2)+W North Texas (288)
1812 #24.9 25/0% (11-1)+W New Mexico (704)
Longshots
1784 #28.0 7/0% (10-2)+W Memphis (115)
1783 #28.6 9/0% (10-2)+W La Tech (209)
1765 #30.6 5/0% (10-2)+W USF (16)
1767 #30.7 1/0% (10-2) UTSA (2)
1752 #31.5 12/0% (9-3)+W Oregon St (34)
1748 #32.4 9/0% (10-2)+L Boise St (98)
1736 #33.4 10/0% (9-3)+W Boise St (68)
1737 #33.6 7/0% (9-3)+W UTSA (32)
1744 #33.7 2/0% (10-2)+L UTSA (43)
1736 #34.5 1/0% (11-1)+L New Mexico (25)
1736 #34.8 4/0% (10-2)+W Air Force (6)
1730 #35.4 1/0% (9-3)+W North Texas (18)
1722 #36.2 2/0% (10-2)+W New Mexico (62)

(10-30-2026 03:47 AM)HP-TBDPITL Wrote:  

(10-25-2026 07:16 AM)HP-TBDPITL Wrote:  Week 9 Games of the week

FAU @ North Texas 7:30 Thursday
New Mexico @ SJ State 4:00 Saturday
Army @ Memphis 8:00 Saturday
Oregon St @ Fresno St 11:00 PM Saturday

North Texas survives in a shootout...and in a shocker JMU falls at home to Troy.

More big games on Saturday that could influence the CFP race.

Another crazy week with Oregon St going down on the road. New Mexico's defense traveled well and held SJ St's offense to only 9 pts. Memphis rolled.

Georgia Southern will win the Sun Belt East if they win out.

If they lose one, there's a tiebreaker situation between Georgia Southern, App State, and James Madison: Georgia Southern beat App State, App State beat James Madison, and James Madison beat Georgia Southern.

Awesome to see three former FCS powers in a division race like that. It's great entertainment. Shame that JMU is leaving it.

(11-01-2026 09:14 AM)Yosef181 Wrote:  Georgia Southern will win the Sun Belt East if they win out.

If they lose one, there's a tiebreaker situation between Georgia Southern, App State, and James Madison: Georgia Southern beat App State, App State beat James Madison, and James Madison beat Georgia Southern.

Awesome to see three former FCS powers in a division race like that. It's great entertainment. Shame that JMU is leaving it.

Will be interesting if the tiebreaker element is used. Quite something, indeed, with the SBC East this year.

Week 10 Games of the Week-"contenders on the road"

UTSA @ FAU Thur 7:30
USF @ ECU Fri 7:30
New Mexico @ Nevada Fri 9:00
La Tech @ Troy Sat 4:00
Boise St @ Colorado St 6:00