(10-18-2026 07:23 PM)SoCalBobcat78 Wrote:  

(10-18-2026 01:09 PM)HP-TBDPITL Wrote:  

(10-18-2026 10:32 AM)thrill_house Wrote:  Implied probabilities per FanDuel's odds...

Boise State: 37.74%
James Madison: 35.71%
New Mexico: 17.24%
Oregon State: 8.33%
UTSA: 7.69%
North Dakota State: 5.88%
Everyone else: 0.99% or less

It will be interesting to see what the committee does with JMU. Liberty was the best opponent that they've faced, and they're #64 in the FPI.

Folks need to understand that these probabilities are less about how good a team is and more about how good the teams they have yet to play are.

ND State and UTSA have the toughest roads left. Oregon St has 2 losses and a third loss is likely a killer.

That being said...I guess probabilities have ruled out Liberty entirely. That wasnt the case a few years ago.

Whatever poll or computer rating system that anyone is looking at after Week 7, there is one common theme: The Top 4 G6 teams are Boise State, James Madison, New Mexico, and Oregon State. It may not be in that order, but those are the four G6 teams consistently at the top of the polls and ratings. At the top in the AP Poll, the only G6 schools getting votes are Boise State, James Madison, New Mexico, and Oregon State, in that order. These four schools are in the best position today.

Even if UNM beats NDSU at home this Saturday without their starting QB, they then go on the road for two weeks and then host dangerous UNLV and then go to Laramie for what figures to be a particularly rough roadie played at night at 7200 feet. UNM deserves much respect for the recent improvement of its football program but there's very little chance the Lobos won't suffer a second loss in the next month.

Down goes the Dukea

WTG APP STATE!

App State finishes 3-2 vs. James Madison during the Dukes' time in the Sun Belt.

This is the 2nd time in the last 4 seasons that App State has beaten an undefeated James Madison.

(10-18-2026 12:50 PM)Crayton Wrote:  Updated Top 10 Possible Finishers:

#AvgRnk Bid/Bye% (record)+CCG Team (likelihood of 10k)
1919 #14.7 79/0% (11-1)+W Boise St (1942)
1909 #15.7 80/0% (12-0)+W James Madison (3828)
1901 #17 57/0% (11-1)+W UTSA (595)
1857 #20.7 44/0% (10-2)+W Oregon St (261)
1840 #22.9 26/0% (11-1)+W Air Force (114)
1838 #22.8 40/0% (11-1)+L Boise St (428)
1828 #23.9 31/0% (10-2)+W Boise St (724)
1827 #24.5 38/0% (10-2)+W La Tech (218)
1824 #25 28/0% (10-2) Boise St (2)
1821 #25 20/0% (11-1)+W New Mexico (211)

Top 10 looking rather Bronco-heavy right now. UTSA alone with a shot to catch them, baring a loss. La Tech probably suffers a bit from the Dukes’ loss too. Air Force kicks off tomorrow.

(10-18-2026 06:57 AM)HP-TBDPITL Wrote:  Week 8 Games of the Week

North Dakota St (6-1) @ New Mexico (5-1) Saturday 9PM
UTSA (6-1) @ Tulane Saturday 8PM
James Madison (7-0) @ App St Thursday 7PM
North Texas (4-2) @ Navy Saturday 330 PM

All other G6 Top 10 should be heavily favored.
Oregon St & USF are on a bye.

Wow, what a start to week 8 in the G6. Reminder of some other important games on the docket.

(10-22-2026 11:01 PM)Yosef181 Wrote:  App State finishes 3-2 vs. James Madison during the Dukes' time in the Sun Belt.

This is the 2nd time in the last 4 seasons that App State has beaten an undefeated James Madison.

Congratulations on the win. While I’m happy JMU is joining the American, I’m also very happy App beat them last night.

Implied probabilities after last nights upset...

Boise State: 42.55%
New Mexico: 25%
James Madison: 13.33%
Oregon State: 11.1%
UTSA: 9.09%
North Dakota State: 8.33%
Liberty: 2.44%
North Texas 1.64%
Everyone else: 0.99% or lower

Meter-moving games left:

North Dakota State @ New Mexico (10/24)
Oregon State @ Boise State (11/14)
North Texas @ UTSA (11/14)

Think it's Boise State or Oregon State, Beavers have 2 very good performances against now 2 top 15 teams

(10-23-2026 11:02 AM)Utgrizfan Wrote:  Think it's Boise State or Oregon State, Beavers have 2 very good performances against now 2 top 15 teams

Oregon State is on a roll. They have the 4th ranked offense in FBS football by total yardage per game and they just got their stud freshman wide receiver, who leads the nation in receiving yardage and touchdowns, to re-sign today for another year. He could have gone to any P4 school that he wanted to go to.

Boise State is still the favorite. They lead the nation in Time of Possession, and their QB has 13 TD passes and zero interceptions. UNM leads the nation in takeaways at 21, in turnover margin with a +17, and in scoring defense at 10.5 points per game. They have nine seniors starting on defense. Boise State, Oregon State, and New Mexico are in the lead at this point in time.

It's Boise to lose, as it has been all along, I think.

New Mexico still has air Force as well coming up. They also have to get passed UNLV. If they lose to both Air Force and NDSU? UNLV loses to New Mexico? It would be NDSU vs Air Force rematched for conference champs. Pollsters usually give Air Force a lot of love like the academies.

(10-23-2026 06:58 PM)DavidSt Wrote:  New Mexico still has air Force as well coming up. They also have to get passed UNLV. If they lose to both Air Force and NDSU? UNLV loses to New Mexico? It would be NDSU vs Air Force rematched for conference champs. Pollsters usually give Air Force a lot of love like the academies.

Air Force is not looking good tonight and they probably have 2-3 more losses left.

(10-18-2026 12:50 PM)Crayton Wrote:  Updated Top 10 Possible Finishers:

#AvgRnk Bid/Bye% (record)+CCG Team (likelihood of 10k)
1919 #14.7 79/0% (11-1)+W Boise St (1942)
1909 #15.7 80/0% (12-0)+W James Madison (3828)
1901 #17 57/0% (11-1)+W UTSA (595)
1857 #20.7 44/0% (10-2)+W Oregon St (261)
1840 #22.9 26/0% (11-1)+W Air Force (114)
1838 #22.8 40/0% (11-1)+L Boise St (428)
1828 #23.9 31/0% (10-2)+W Boise St (724)
1827 #24.5 38/0% (10-2)+W La Tech (218)
1824 #25 28/0% (10-2) Boise St (2)
1821 #25 20/0% (11-1)+W New Mexico (211)

Another one bites the dust.

(10-23-2026 06:08 AM)HP-TBDPITL Wrote:  

(10-18-2026 06:57 AM)HP-TBDPITL Wrote:  Week 8 Games of the Week

North Dakota St (6-1) @ New Mexico (5-1) Saturday 9PM
UTSA (6-1) @ Tulane Saturday 8PM
James Madison (7-0) @ App St Thursday 7PM
North Texas (4-2) @ Navy Saturday 330 PM

All other G6 Top 10 should be heavily favored.
Oregon St & USF are on a bye.

Wow, what a start to week 8 in the G6. Reminder of some other important games on the docket.

UTSA & New Mexico will huge quality wins yesterday. North Texas holds serve on the road.

Week 9 Games of the week

FAU @ North Texas 7:30 Thursday
New Mexico @ SJ State 4:00 Saturday
Army @ Memphis 8:00 Saturday
Oregon St @ Fresno St 11:00 PM Saturday

G6 teams with one loss and who they lost to:

UTSA 7-1 (Texas 30-6)
Liberty 6-1 (JMU 20-13)
New Mexico 6-1 (Oklahoma 14-6)
Boise State 6-1 (Oregon 34-27)
James Madison 7-1 (App State 34-31 OT)

May not get to my sims until Monday, but Texas won and Oregon lost. UTSA may close the gap a smidge.

(10-25-2026 07:27 AM)AssKickingChicken Wrote:  G6 teams with one loss and who they lost to:

UTSA 7-1 (Texas 30-6)
Liberty 6-1 (JMU 20-13)
New Mexico 6-1 (Oklahoma 14-6)
Boise State 6-1 (Oregon 34-27)
James Madison 7-1 (App State 34-31 OT)

Not one to value a loss but as of now New Mexico has the best loss.

Texas is the best team of the bunch but UTSA couldnt get any offense going. While New Mexico held Oklahoma total yards to within yards of UGA.

If Tarleton State and SFASU were FBS this year? Both would be 8-0.
Montana State would be 7-1.

New Mexico 6-1
UTSA 7-1
JMU 7-1
Liberty 6-1
Boise State 6-1
App. State 5-2
Oregon State 5-2
Army 5-2
Toledo 6-2
NDSU 6-2
Jacksonville State 5-2
Memphis 6-2
Ohio 6-2
La. Tech 5-2
North Texas 5-2
USF 5-2
Air Force 5-2
FAU 5-2
Western Michigan 5-3
UNLV 4-3
Buffalo 5-3
Miami 5-3