(01-05-2021 03:34 PM)BePcr07 Wrote:  

(01-05-2021 03:03 PM)SMUstang Wrote:  

(01-05-2021 02:54 PM)Wedge Wrote:  

(01-05-2021 02:04 AM)jedclampett Wrote:  

(01-04-2021 06:58 AM)The Cutter of Bish Wrote:  If Boise is purposely overlooking or resisting conferences like the WAC, Big Sky, or even Summit, I think it's done to "protect its brand" with respect to basketball and the greater athletic department.

Consider this, though:

There is a lot more to the value of a conference than a conference's brand or prestige, with respect to basketball, in particular.

The best situation for a BB school, in many respects, is having a good chance to make the NCAA tournament.

One of the reasons why Gonzaga has had the success they've had is that they've become a major national brand, due to having been the top team in the WCC and have thus gotten an automatic bid into the NCAA tournament for so many seasons.

If Boise State were to join the Big Sky, they would have a yellow brick road to the NCAA most seasons. They would, thus, have a great opportunity to build their basketball "brand," the same way that Gonzaga did, and to become the Gonzaga of the Big Sky Conference.

After making the NCAA tournament 2 or 3 years in a row, Boise would be considered a perennial NCAA team, practically overnight, and their recruiting would improve by leaps and bounds, as a consequence.

Gonzaga isn't the only example of a team that became a national power school by becoming the dominant team in their conference. Other examples have included Butler, Creighton, Dayton, UMass, Northern Iowa, Temple, Wichita State, Xavier, and recently, San Diego State.

That is an extremely overbroad definition of "national power". By that definition there would be close to 100 men's basketball teams in Division I that could call themselves a national power.

Also, the idea that a football-first athletic department should downgrade its other sports just to take the chance that they could become more of a basketball power is an odd idea. Try applying it to other programs. Do you think UCF should be a football-only member of the AAC and move its other sports to the A-Sun, just because it might be easier to win that conference in basketball? If you don't think that, then you also don't really believe that Boise State should play basketball in the WAC or Big Sky.

Boise State basketball is too good for the WAC or Big Sky and probably also for the Big West. The only conference good enough is the WCC and they are not about to take Boise State for a lot of reasons. So Boise State either stays in the MWC or the American has to offer them a full membership.

The Mt West is the best option out West for Boise St except for the PAC but that’s not happening.

In the end it will come down to dollars and cents. And the conference commissioner and conference presidents will decide.

(01-05-2021 02:04 AM)jedclampett Wrote:  If Boise State were to join the Big Sky, they would have a yellow brick road to the NCAA most seasons. They would, thus, have a great opportunity to build their basketball "brand," the same way that Gonzaga did, and to become the Gonzaga of the Big Sky Conference.

After making the NCAA tournament 2 or 3 years in a row, Boise would be considered a perennial NCAA team, practically overnight, and their recruiting would improve by leaps and bounds, as a consequence.

Maybe more reasonable is becoming like NMSU to the WAC. But, I suspect Boise doesn’t think they can emulate even that in the Big Sky or Summit, let alone maybe even the WAC?

And I can see this school hot-shot NMSU like that. That it thinks itself so much above NMSU that it wants nothing at the same level or place. But not actually compete head to head to prove that perceived superiority (and, really, you have to go back ten years to the WAC era to find NMSU on the schedule). Or to feel like it has to work with them (again).

(01-05-2021 02:04 AM)jedclampett Wrote:  If Boise State were to join the Big Sky, they would have a yellow brick road to the NCAA most seasons. They would, thus, have a great opportunity to build their basketball "brand," the same way that Gonzaga did, and to become the Gonzaga of the Big Sky Conference.

After making the NCAA tournament 2 or 3 years in a row, Boise would be considered a perennial NCAA team, practically overnight, and their recruiting would improve by leaps and bounds, as a consequence.

I very much doubt that. I think the opposite would happen. Recruiting would dry up because you are not playing high caliber players, rather 2nd or even 3rd tier players.

Long Beach State and UC Santa Barbara used to have top 50 programs, borderline ranked and even tourney appearances. But when UNLV and other schools left the Big West for the WAC (then on to the MWC) they found themselves drifting into irrelevance. To a large extend NMSU has become not as dissimilar as you might think. They really have not been competitive in the NCAA tourney for some time. They were also with Long Beach and Santa Barbara as UNLV's main conference opposition in those days, even getting ranked.

Boise State knows that in the MWC, if they can put together a good season, they will get ranked like Nevada and San Diego State have managed. The same would be true in the American (even better situation). But in the WAC or Big West it's death by invisibility.

NMSU (not so publicly) and GCU (very publicly) even considered the Horizon conference, despite the travel, as they see the WAC as severely limiting their potential growth.

The WCC is really the only alternative to the MWC in the West, and Boise State doesn't fit those type of schools. So they are stuck in the MWC unless and until the American is willing to take all their sports in order to get their football. And that seems like a pretty hard "no."

(01-05-2021 04:35 PM)Stugray2 Wrote:  

(01-05-2021 02:04 AM)jedclampett Wrote:  If Boise State were to join the Big Sky, they would have a yellow brick road to the NCAA most seasons. They would, thus, have a great opportunity to build their basketball "brand," the same way that Gonzaga did, and to become the Gonzaga of the Big Sky Conference.

After making the NCAA tournament 2 or 3 years in a row, Boise would be considered a perennial NCAA team, practically overnight, and their recruiting would improve by leaps and bounds, as a consequence.

I very much doubt that. I think the opposite would happen. Recruiting would dry up because you are not playing high caliber players, rather 2nd or even 3rd tier players.

Long Beach State and UC Santa Barbara used to have top 50 programs, borderline ranked and even tourney appearances. But when UNLV and other schools left the Big West for the WAC (then on to the MWC) they found themselves drifting into irrelevance. To a large extend NMSU has become not as dissimilar as you might think. They really have not been competitive in the NCAA tourney for some time. They were also with Long Beach and Santa Barbara as UNLV's main conference opposition in those days, even getting ranked.

Boise State knows that in the MWC, if they can put together a good season, they will get ranked like Nevada and San Diego State have managed. The same would be true in the American (even better situation). But in the WAC or Big West it's death by invisibility.

NMSU (not so publicly) and GCU (very publicly) even considered the Horizon conference, despite the travel, as they see the WAC as severely limiting their potential growth.

The WCC is really the only alternative to the MWC in the West, and Boise State doesn't fit those type of schools. So they are stuck in the MWC unless and until the American is willing to take all their sports in order to get their football. And that seems like a pretty hard "no."

Joe Pasternack must not have gotten the message about recruiting for UC Santa Barbara. There are several 3* and 4* players on their roster this year, including a former consensus top-100 player in Miles Norris. A mixture of both hs signees and transfers.

Boise needed SDSU’s help to get the Big West for non-FB when they almost joined the Big East. No SDSU then maybe the Big West says no?

If they say no the WCC possibly does as well given they are much more of a common private religious conference.

After that? It’s probably WAC or bust and Boise might just say bust at that point.

Methinks UCSD, excited about finally joining the Division 1 ranks, would give their blessing to Boise. CSUB will go along with it also, wanting to play nice.

Hawaii will need some convincing. They are in a quandry. They might be seeking full membership in the MWC, but until that happens they'd prefer to keep the rest of the BW within California. Even though Boise would strengthen the BW and ease Hawaii's travel costs.

(01-05-2021 05:46 PM)jdgaucho Wrote:  Methinks UCSD, excited about finally joining the Division 1 ranks, would give their blessing to Boise. CSUB will go along with it also, wanting to play nice.

Hawaii will need some convincing. They are in a quandry. They might be seeking full membership in the MWC, but until that happens they'd prefer to keep the rest of the BW within California. Even though Boise would strengthen the BW and ease Hawaii's travel costs.

If Boise St football does leave the Mt West and the non-football sports are not welcome to stay in the Mt West or join the American (or whatever conference football joins), my strong preference would be the Big West then the Big Sky. I don't like the fit in the WCC and I'm not sold on the WAC yet.

(01-05-2021 03:51 PM)johnbragg Wrote:  

(01-05-2021 02:54 PM)Wedge Wrote:  Do you think UCF should be a football-only member of the AAC and move its other sports to the A-Sun, just because it might be easier to win that conference in basketball? If you don't think that, then you also don't really believe that Boise State should play basketball in the WAC or Big Sky.

The premise is that Boise State football would be getting a big upgrade from the Mountain West to the AAC.

To make the analogy work for UCF, if the Big 12 offered a football-only deal, I think UCF would put their basketball in the ASUN or the Big South etc in a heartbeat.

Heck, ECU upgraded football from CUSA to the AAC without really knowing what they were going to do with Olympic sports--Colonial? Atlantic Sun? Big South?

That's the wrong premise, because moving from the MWC to the AAC is a small step, whereas moving from the AAC to the Big 12 is a giant leap. (h/t Neil Armstrong)

If Boise State or UCF was offered the Big 12 for football only, then that is the kind of upgrade in money and status that would cause them to strongly consider dropping all of their other sports off at an orphanage, so to speak. If an athletic department makes a move like that, they are burning their bridges with every donor and potential donor who cares about any of the school's sports other than football.

(01-05-2021 04:35 PM)Stugray2 Wrote:  

(01-05-2021 02:04 AM)jedclampett Wrote:  If Boise State were to join the Big Sky, they would have a yellow brick road to the NCAA most seasons. They would, thus, have a great opportunity to build their basketball "brand," the same way that Gonzaga did, and to become the Gonzaga of the Big Sky Conference.

After making the NCAA tournament 2 or 3 years in a row, Boise would be considered a perennial NCAA team, practically overnight, and their recruiting would improve by leaps and bounds, as a consequence.

I very much doubt that. I think the opposite would happen. Recruiting would dry up because you are not playing high caliber players, rather 2nd or even 3rd tier players.

Long Beach State and UC Santa Barbara used to have top 50 programs, borderline ranked and even tourney appearances. But when UNLV and other schools left the Big West for the WAC (then on to the MWC) they found themselves drifting into irrelevance. To a large extend NMSU has become not as dissimilar as you might think. They really have not been competitive in the NCAA tourney for some time. They were also with Long Beach and Santa Barbara as UNLV's main conference opposition in those days, even getting ranked.

Boise State knows that in the MWC, if they can put together a good season, they will get ranked like Nevada and San Diego State have managed. The same would be true in the American (even better situation). But in the WAC or Big West it's death by invisibility.

NMSU (not so publicly) and GCU (very publicly) even considered the Horizon conference, despite the travel, as they see the WAC as severely limiting their potential growth.

The WCC is really the only alternative to the MWC in the West, and Boise State doesn't fit those type of schools. So they are stuck in the MWC unless and until the American is willing to take all their sports in order to get their football. And that seems like a pretty hard "no."

Very well framed. Agree overall.

(01-05-2021 05:46 PM)jdgaucho Wrote:  Methinks UCSD, excited about finally joining the Division 1 ranks, would give their blessing to Boise. CSUB will go along with it also, wanting to play nice.

Hawaii will need some convincing. They are in a quandry. They might be seeking full membership in the MWC, but until that happens they'd prefer to keep the rest of the BW within California. Even though Boise would strengthen the BW and ease Hawaii's travel costs.

Where is this coming from? I haven’t seen the slightest hint from anyone associated with the UH program that the school has any interest whatsover in putting non-football sports in the MWC. None, zero, nada.

(01-05-2021 10:44 PM)HawaiiMongoose Wrote:  

(01-05-2021 05:46 PM)jdgaucho Wrote:  Methinks UCSD, excited about finally joining the Division 1 ranks, would give their blessing to Boise. CSUB will go along with it also, wanting to play nice.

Hawaii will need some convincing. They are in a quandry. They might be seeking full membership in the MWC, but until that happens they'd prefer to keep the rest of the BW within California. Even though Boise would strengthen the BW and ease Hawaii's travel costs.

Where is this coming from? I haven’t seen the slightest hint from anyone associated with the UH program that the school has any interest whatsover in putting non-football sports in the MWC. None, zero, nada.

Hawaii and the Big West are perfect for each other. The sports coordinate very well as well as travel is really great for them.

(01-05-2021 10:44 PM)HawaiiMongoose Wrote:  

(01-05-2021 05:46 PM)jdgaucho Wrote:  Methinks UCSD, excited about finally joining the Division 1 ranks, would give their blessing to Boise. CSUB will go along with it also, wanting to play nice.

Hawaii will need some convincing. They are in a quandry. They might be seeking full membership in the MWC, but until that happens they'd prefer to keep the rest of the BW within California. Even though Boise would strengthen the BW and ease Hawaii's travel costs.

Where is this coming from? I haven’t seen the slightest hint from anyone associated with the UH program that the school has any interest whatsover in putting non-football sports in the MWC. None, zero, nada.

Merely a hunch on my part. There's no smoke floating around. However, the conference's decision to cancel fall sports couldn't have sat well with UH brass, especially those who support Wahine volleyball. Former head coach Dave Shoji certainly didn't approve. "Big West will suffer consequences," he said. Is it that much of a stretch to think Coach Shoji's sentiment is shared by everyone in the Athletic Department?

Hawaii volleyball was the one program most hurt by the additions of Bakersfield and UCSD. RPI drop combined with losing four ooc contests. Fullerton baseball and UCSB men's soccer were up there, too.

(01-05-2021 11:01 PM)MWC Tex Wrote:  

(01-05-2021 10:44 PM)HawaiiMongoose Wrote:  

(01-05-2021 05:46 PM)jdgaucho Wrote:  Methinks UCSD, excited about finally joining the Division 1 ranks, would give their blessing to Boise. CSUB will go along with it also, wanting to play nice.

Hawaii will need some convincing. They are in a quandry. They might be seeking full membership in the MWC, but until that happens they'd prefer to keep the rest of the BW within California. Even though Boise would strengthen the BW and ease Hawaii's travel costs.

Where is this coming from? I haven’t seen the slightest hint from anyone associated with the UH program that the school has any interest whatsover in putting non-football sports in the MWC. None, zero, nada.

Hawaii and the Big West are perfect for each other. The sports coordinate very well as well as travel is really great for them.

It'd be even better with Boise as a 12th member, and second outside California, to balance out Hawaii.

(01-05-2021 05:56 PM)Wedge Wrote:  

(01-05-2021 03:51 PM)johnbragg Wrote:  

(01-05-2021 02:54 PM)Wedge Wrote:  Do you think UCF should be a football-only member of the AAC and move its other sports to the A-Sun, just because it might be easier to win that conference in basketball? If you don't think that, then you also don't really believe that Boise State should play basketball in the WAC or Big Sky.

The premise is that Boise State football would be getting a big upgrade from the Mountain West to the AAC.

To make the analogy work for UCF, if the Big 12 offered a football-only deal, I think UCF would put their basketball in the ASUN or the Big South etc in a heartbeat.

Heck, ECU upgraded football from CUSA to the AAC without really knowing what they were going to do with Olympic sports--Colonial? Atlantic Sun? Big South?

That's the wrong premise, because moving from the MWC to the AAC is a small step, whereas moving from the AAC to the Big 12 is a giant leap. (h/t Neil Armstrong)

If Boise State or UCF was offered the Big 12 for football only, then that is the kind of upgrade in money and status that would cause them to strongly consider dropping all of their other sports off at an orphanage, so to speak. If an athletic department makes a move like that, they are burning their bridges with every donor and potential donor who cares about any of the school's sports other than football.

Interesting point, that I haven't really thought of. Do you think there's the potential that the prestige from one sport (i.e. moneys earned) could rub off on the next-closest moneymaker sport?

(01-05-2021 11:38 PM)jdgaucho Wrote:  

(01-05-2021 10:44 PM)HawaiiMongoose Wrote:  

(01-05-2021 05:46 PM)jdgaucho Wrote:  Methinks UCSD, excited about finally joining the Division 1 ranks, would give their blessing to Boise. CSUB will go along with it also, wanting to play nice.

Hawaii will need some convincing. They are in a quandry. They might be seeking full membership in the MWC, but until that happens they'd prefer to keep the rest of the BW within California. Even though Boise would strengthen the BW and ease Hawaii's travel costs.

Where is this coming from? I haven’t seen the slightest hint from anyone associated with the UH program that the school has any interest whatsover in putting non-football sports in the MWC. None, zero, nada.

Merely a hunch on my part. There's no smoke floating around. However, the conference's decision to cancel fall sports couldn't have sat well with UH brass, especially those who support Wahine volleyball. Former head coach Dave Shoji certainly didn't approve. "Big West will suffer consequences," he said. Is it that much of a stretch to think Coach Shoji's sentiment is shared by everyone in the Athletic Department?

Hawaii volleyball was the one program most hurt by the additions of Bakersfield and UCSD. RPI drop combined with losing four ooc contests. Fullerton baseball and UCSB men's soccer were up there, too.

Assuming Boise State finds a home for olympic sports there's a possibility (even so slim) that Hawaii could be dropped from the conference. The Sun Belt showed the NCAA will let 10 team CCG games in football. Remaining team gets a bigger slice of the CFP money. Hawaii's fate is if the MWC thinks either UTEP or NMSU adds enough value to stay at 12. I'm sure at this time they would think about the best olympics sport team to have if Hawaii all sports isn't wanted. Which has proved that the MWC doesn't want Hawaii with the Gonzaga talk a few years ago.

(01-05-2021 05:56 PM)Wedge Wrote:  That's the wrong premise, because moving from the MWC to the AAC is a small step, whereas moving from the AAC to the Big 12 is a giant leap. (h/t Neil Armstrong)

If Boise State or UCF was offered the Big 12 for football only, then that is the kind of upgrade in money and status that would cause them to strongly consider dropping all of their other sports off at an orphanage, so to speak. If an athletic department makes a move like that, they are burning their bridges with every donor and potential donor who cares about any of the school's sports other than football.

There are no small steps.

Everyone realizes that the landscape can/will change dramatically in the next 5 years, and justifying your spot in the next iteration of BCS/NY6/??? is a LOT easier when you are in the top 6 conferences versus 7-8-9-10-11??

There was ALWAYS going to be some consolidation in the non-autonomy leagues to increase strength in numbers/brands. Anyone who thinks the strongest non-autonomy brands wouldn't find each other just has a narrow view of what's going on. We saw this in the BCS era when TCU kept changing leagues.

(01-05-2021 04:35 PM)Stugray2 Wrote:  

(01-05-2021 02:04 AM)jedclampett Wrote:  If Boise State were to join the Big Sky, they would have a yellow brick road to the NCAA most seasons. They would, thus, have a great opportunity to build their basketball "brand," the same way that Gonzaga did, and to become the Gonzaga of the Big Sky Conference.

After making the NCAA tournament 2 or 3 years in a row, Boise would be considered a perennial NCAA team, practically overnight, and their recruiting would improve by leaps and bounds, as a consequence.

I think the opposite would happen. Recruiting would dry up because you are not playing high caliber players...

Long Beach State (and UC Santa Barbara) used to have top 50 programs, borderline ranked and even tourney appearances. But when UNLV and other schools left the Big West for the WAC (then on to the MWC) they found themselves drifting into irrelevance.

Boise State knows that in the MWC, if they can put together a good season, they will get ranked like Nevada and San Diego State have managed.

But in the WAC or Big West it's death by invisibility.

The WCC is really the only alternative to the MWC in the West...

Taken one by one, none of these points really holds up to scrutiny:

1. Schools such as Belmont and New Mexico State have proven that recruiting doesn't "dry up" for perennial NCAA tournament schools from the conferences that have typically sent only one team to the tournament.

Moreover, Boise State has long surprised observers with its recruiting potential. Few would suggest that Boise State FB's recruiting would "dry up" if they were to play in the MAC.

Playing in a less prestigious conference can have varying effects (such as making it easier to get a NCAA bid), and doesn't automatically cause recruiting to dry up. The top recruits within a conference tend to gravitate to the top programs in the conference, which can sustain their recruiting by making repeat trips to the NCAA and NIT tournaments.

Examples:

Wichita State's recruiting didn't "dry up" when their conference, the MVC, was significantly weakened by the departure of Creighton.

The quality of recruiting in the Atlantic 10 Conference has remained strong, despite the departures of elite level BB schools such as WVU, Temple, Xavier, and Butler. The remaining A-10 schools, such as Dayton, VCU, Rhode Island, St. Louis, Davidson, and Richmond have sustained their recruiting by making post-season trips to the NCAA and NIT.

2. Is it true that Long Beach State and UC Santa Barbara "drift(ed) into irrelevance" because UNLV left the Big West?

Not really. UNLV's glory days were behind them, and they had already begun to drift into obscurity before they left the Big West in 1996. UNLV's record in their final 3 years in the Big West were 15-13, 12-16, and 10-16.

Long Beach State actually had more 20+ win seasons, not fewer after UNLV departed the Big West.

2011-12: 25 wins
2010-11: 22 wins
2006-07: 24 wins
1999-00: 24 wins
1996: UNLV goes 10-16 and departs the Big West
1994-95: 20 wins (UNLV goes 12-16)
1992-93: 22 wins (UNLV goes 15-13)
1989-90: 23 wins


Moreover, if playing in a more prestigious conference led to improved competitiveness, then UNLV's recruiting should have improved when they moved to the MWC, but the opposite actually occurred. UNLV had by far the most success when they played in the Big West, not the MWC.

Nor is UNLV an isolated example. There is a long list of schools that have had more success in lower-ranked conferences than they've had when they played in higher-ranked conferences.

.

3. Has New Mexico State become "irrelevant" as a result of playing in the WAC?

Hardly. They've maintained a very successful program. NMSU has gone 28-6, 30-5, and 25-6 in the past three seasons, and have played in the 2012, '13, ''14, '15, '17, '18, and '19 NCAA tournaments.

4. The idea that Boise State will have little trouble becoming ranked or a perennial NCAA tournament team, given that the MWC usually gets only 1 or 2 NCAA bids, isn't persuasive, considering that they would have to compete with San Diego State, in particular.

5. Q: Boise State wouldn't consider the WAC or Big West because that would result in "death by invisibility" ?

A: Incorrect. Boise's administration has been actively considering the idea of joining one, if not both of these conferences.

6. Q: The WCC is Boise's "only alternative" to the MWC in the West?

A: Also incorrect, given that Boise State has been shown interest in moving their BB & olympic sports programs into the Big West or WAC.

(01-06-2021 01:43 AM)TroyTBoy Wrote:  

(01-05-2021 05:56 PM)Wedge Wrote:  That's the wrong premise, because moving from the MWC to the AAC is a small step, whereas moving from the AAC to the Big 12 is a giant leap. (h/t Neil Armstrong)

If Boise State or UCF was offered the Big 12 for football only, then that is the kind of upgrade in money and status that would cause them to strongly consider dropping all of their other sports off at an orphanage, so to speak. If an athletic department makes a move like that, they are burning their bridges with every donor and potential donor who cares about any of the school's sports other than football.

There are no small steps.

Everyone realizes that the landscape can/will change dramatically in the next 5 years, and justifying your spot in the next iteration of BCS/NY6/??? is a LOT easier when you are in the top 6 conferences versus 7-8-9-10-11??

There was ALWAYS going to be some consolidation in the non-autonomy leagues to increase strength in numbers/brands. Anyone who thinks the strongest non-autonomy brands wouldn't find each other just has a narrow view of what's going on. We saw this in the BCS era when TCU kept changing leagues.

The difference in this situation is that AAC membership really won't help that much. That should be considered simply because the Big 12 could collapse within 4 years. That's within the timeline of Boise losing their special status in the Mountain West.

Given that potentiality, there's really no reason to do anything drastic this year or anytime soon until the Big 12 question is answered.

I would agree with you if the WCC was an option for Boise State sports, but if it's not then there's really no reason to create a lot of upheaval. The WAC or other leagues aren't going to help Boise State with their Olympic sports. That is especially true given that if the Big 12 disintegrates then Boise could be on the move again before the next recruiting class even graduates.

If I'm Boise then I consider independence or maybe football membership in the AAC if I can get my olympic sports into the WCC. If not then it's best to wait because nothing is lost.

(01-06-2021 04:08 AM)AllTideUp Wrote:  

(01-06-2021 01:43 AM)TroyTBoy Wrote:  

(01-05-2021 05:56 PM)Wedge Wrote:  That's the wrong premise, because moving from the MWC to the AAC is a small step, whereas moving from the AAC to the Big 12 is a giant leap. (h/t Neil Armstrong)

If Boise State or UCF was offered the Big 12 for football only, then that is the kind of upgrade in money and status that would cause them to strongly consider dropping all of their other sports off at an orphanage, so to speak. If an athletic department makes a move like that, they are burning their bridges with every donor and potential donor who cares about any of the school's sports other than football.

There are no small steps.

Everyone realizes that the landscape can/will change dramatically in the next 5 years, and justifying your spot in the next iteration of BCS/NY6/??? is a LOT easier when you are in the top 6 conferences versus 7-8-9-10-11??

There was ALWAYS going to be some consolidation in the non-autonomy leagues to increase strength in numbers/brands. Anyone who thinks the strongest non-autonomy brands wouldn't find each other just has a narrow view of what's going on. We saw this in the BCS era when TCU kept changing leagues.

The difference in this situation is that AAC membership really won't help that much. That should be considered simply because the Big 12 could collapse within 4 years. That's within the timeline of Boise losing their special status in the Mountain West.

Given that potentiality, there's really no reason to do anything drastic this year or anytime soon until the Big 12 question is answered.

I would agree with you if the WCC was an option for Boise State sports, but if it's not then there's really no reason to create a lot of upheaval. The WAC or other leagues aren't going to help Boise State with their Olympic sports. That is especially true given that if the Big 12 disintegrates then Boise could be on the move again before the next recruiting class even graduates.

If I'm Boise then I consider independence or maybe football membership in the AAC if I can get my olympic sports into the WCC. If not then it's best to wait because nothing is lost.

The idea that Boise should play it safe and wait for a better situation because the Big 12 might "disintegrate" in 4 years certainly wasn't found persuasive by Boise State's administration.

Although it might be conceivable that "the landscape (could) change dramatically in the next 5 years," there are few indications that this is likely to happen.

In fact, seems equally possible that the P5 conferences will do as the SEC has done by simply renewing their broadcasting agreements and leaving it at that. The major networks have little motivation to shell out the vast new sums that would be required to expand the number of P5 schools, and the conferences have little incentive to increase the number of "mouths to feed" (i.e., conference schools to share their revenues with).

The Big 12's decision not to expand, a few years ago, may well be indicative of an enduring preference, which is unlikely to be reversed, and there haven't been any compelling indications that the Big 12 is on the verge of disintegrating. If there had been, the SEC might well have been involved, but as we have seen, they're moving on with no changes.

Finally, if the Big 12 should decide to add members, Boise St. wouldn't necessarily near the top of their list of expansion candidates, due to their less than stellar academic credentials and the fact that Boise hasn't yet established itself as more than quality football school.

Regardless, Boise State has weighed all of these considerations, and has decided to (preferably) switch to the AAC (FB) and another (BB/olympics) conference or - failing that - to remain in the MWC.

There is not going to be major changes in the p5 anytime soon. The networks don't want to shell out 10's of millions for schools they already get for 2 to 7 mil. Boise make sense if it works out because for 2 to 6 mil per year ESPN could get them back in the fold.