Sagarin's updated for week of 10/31.

#40 7-1 Boise St. (#60 Oregon State)
#57 7-1 New Mexico (#89 Air Force)
#59 7-1 *Liberty (#121 Western Kentucky)
#60 5-3 Oregon State (@ #40 Boise St)
#65 7-1 UTSA (#71 North Texas)
#66 4-4 Texas St (@ #60 Oregon St)

-Boise St's close win against Texas St and Oregon St's loss to Fresno St did more to spread around their ratings in the PAC than what it actually hurt the conference. Texas St at 4-4 is #66 in the Sagrins this week for example.

-If UTSA wins out and New Mexico/Liberty both win out they would have the inside track on the autobid over those two schools. However they are within 20 points in the Sagarins of the next 4 schools (Memphis, UNT, Army, South Florida) so I feel their chances of winning out and winning the American championship game are relatively low.

-All one loss teams win out I would have it as 1) Boise St, 2) UTSA, 3) New Mexico, 4) Liberty and none of them has the schedule to allow leapfrogging in rank. UTSA, New Mexico and Liberty have to hope the one loss teams above them lose.

(11-01-2026 03:45 AM)DavidSt Wrote:  UTSA 7-1
New Mexico 7-1
Liberty 7-1
Boise State 7-1

Its difficult for me to take UTSA's CFP bid seriously.

Points scored this season.

1) North Texas 350
2) Memphis 338
3) Florida Atlantic 302
4) Army 269
5) UTSA 268

Defensive points given up.

1) South Florida 116
2) East Carolina 193
3) Tulsa 195
4) Army 204
5) UTSA 205

They are like 5th in offense and 5th in defense in the AC. They aren't far enough ahead of other teams in the AC to think they will likely win out or even win the American.

Compare this to Boise, New Mexico and Liberty....

New Mexico 259/79 (+180)
Liberty 270/108 (+162)
Boise St 287/189 (+89)
UTSA 268/205 (+63)

New Mexico & Liberty look like teams that will probably win out. Boise St its 50/50 and UTSA probably less than 25%.

The first Playoff Poll comes out tonight, and I expect no G programs to be ranked in the Top 24. But, I do expect some be just outside the Top 25 (Boise State, UTSA, & New Mexico would be my guess).

(11-03-2026 02:35 PM)Side.Show.Joe Wrote:  The first Playoff Poll comes out tonight, and I expect no G programs to be ranked in the Top 25. But, I do expect some be just outside the Top 25 (Boise State, UTSA, & New Mexico would be my guess).

The first CFP poll is all about positioning the brand name teams for inclusion. I am most interested to see where Wake Forest is put right now-with their only loss to Miami and they are rolling everyone for 4 straight games. I have a feeling they will not be just outside the Top 10 and more in the 16-19 placement. CFP doesnt want them in the conversation. No one has even seen them play based on what the networks want to show you.

(11-03-2026 04:23 PM)HP-TBDPITL Wrote:  

(11-03-2026 02:35 PM)Side.Show.Joe Wrote:  The first Playoff Poll comes out tonight, and I expect no G programs to be ranked in the Top 25. But, I do expect some be just outside the Top 25 (Boise State, UTSA, & New Mexico would be my guess).

The first CFP poll is all about positioning the brand name teams for inclusion. I am most interested to see where Wake Forest is put right now-with their only loss to Miami and they are rolling everyone for 4 straight games. I have a feeling they will not be just outside the Top 10 and more in the 16-19 placement. CFP doesnt want them in the conversation. No one has even seen them play based on what the networks want to show you.

What does any of that have to do with how the G6 race is shaping up for the Playoff auto-bid?

(11-03-2026 07:44 PM)Side.Show.Joe Wrote:  

(11-03-2026 04:23 PM)HP-TBDPITL Wrote:  

(11-03-2026 02:35 PM)Side.Show.Joe Wrote:  The first Playoff Poll comes out tonight, and I expect no G programs to be ranked in the Top 25. But, I do expect some be just outside the Top 25 (Boise State, UTSA, & New Mexico would be my guess).

The first CFP poll is all about positioning the brand name teams for inclusion. I am most interested to see where Wake Forest is put right now-with their only loss to Miami and they are rolling everyone for 4 straight games. I have a feeling they will not be just outside the Top 10 and more in the 16-19 placement. CFP doesnt want them in the conversation. No one has even seen them play based on what the networks want to show you.

What does any of that have to do with how the G6 race is shaping up for the Playoff auto-bid?

Its an example of how flawed the CFP vote is right now. G6 has no chance on getting votes because they have no representation. And when a school like Wake Forest plays well-they are treated the same by the CFP committee. Lo and behold I was right, Wake dropped from being #14 in both polls (which should be higher) to #16 in CFP because we have to make room for the "preseason" Top 15. Instead of Boise being 20 or 21, they are #25 by the CFP. Instead of New Mexico being 20 or 25, they arent even ranked. There are three 5-3 teams ranked, three two loss teams ranked in the Top 10. There is no room for UCLA to be unbeaten or Wake Forest to win every game but Miami. And there is no room for the G6 with this committee.

(11-04-2026 09:20 AM)HP-TBDPITL Wrote:  

(11-03-2026 07:44 PM)Side.Show.Joe Wrote:  

(11-03-2026 04:23 PM)HP-TBDPITL Wrote:  

(11-03-2026 02:35 PM)Side.Show.Joe Wrote:  The first Playoff Poll comes out tonight, and I expect no G programs to be ranked in the Top 25. But, I do expect some be just outside the Top 25 (Boise State, UTSA, & New Mexico would be my guess).

The first CFP poll is all about positioning the brand name teams for inclusion. I am most interested to see where Wake Forest is put right now-with their only loss to Miami and they are rolling everyone for 4 straight games. I have a feeling they will not be just outside the Top 10 and more in the 16-19 placement. CFP doesnt want them in the conversation. No one has even seen them play based on what the networks want to show you.

What does any of that have to do with how the G6 race is shaping up for the Playoff auto-bid?

Its an example of how flawed the CFP vote is right now. G6 has no chance on getting votes because they have no representation. And when a school like Wake Forest plays well-they are treated the same by the CFP committee. Lo and behold I was right, Wake dropped from being #14 in both polls (which should be higher) to #16 in CFP because we have to make room for the "preseason" Top 15. Instead of Bosie being 20 or 21, they are #25 by the CFP. Instead of New Mexico being 20 or 25, they arent even ranked. There are three 5-3 teams ranked, three two loss teams ranked in the Top 10. There is no room for UCLA to be unbeaten or Wake Forest to win every game but Miami. And there is no room for the G6 with this committee.

They got it right IMO.

Boise State hasn't done anything to prove they even deserve to be in the top 25. The PAC-12 is a bad conference, they haven't shown separation from the handful of decent teams, and they lost their only game against a top 25 team. I'm actually not even sure what the justification of Boise being ranked above UTSA and New Mexico even is.

(11-04-2026 09:45 AM)TrojanCampaign Wrote:  

(11-04-2026 09:20 AM)HP-TBDPITL Wrote:  

(11-03-2026 07:44 PM)Side.Show.Joe Wrote:  

(11-03-2026 04:23 PM)HP-TBDPITL Wrote:  

(11-03-2026 02:35 PM)Side.Show.Joe Wrote:  The first Playoff Poll comes out tonight, and I expect no G programs to be ranked in the Top 25. But, I do expect some be just outside the Top 25 (Boise State, UTSA, & New Mexico would be my guess).

The first CFP poll is all about positioning the brand name teams for inclusion. I am most interested to see where Wake Forest is put right now-with their only loss to Miami and they are rolling everyone for 4 straight games. I have a feeling they will not be just outside the Top 10 and more in the 16-19 placement. CFP doesnt want them in the conversation. No one has even seen them play based on what the networks want to show you.

What does any of that have to do with how the G6 race is shaping up for the Playoff auto-bid?

Its an example of how flawed the CFP vote is right now. G6 has no chance on getting votes because they have no representation. And when a school like Wake Forest plays well-they are treated the same by the CFP committee. Lo and behold I was right, Wake dropped from being #14 in both polls (which should be higher) to #16 in CFP because we have to make room for the "preseason" Top 15. Instead of Bosie being 20 or 21, they are #25 by the CFP. Instead of New Mexico being 20 or 25, they arent even ranked. There are three 5-3 teams ranked, three two loss teams ranked in the Top 10. There is no room for UCLA to be unbeaten or Wake Forest to win every game but Miami. And there is no room for the G6 with this committee.

They got it right IMO.

Boise State hasn't done anything to prove they even deserve to be in the top 25. The PAC-12 is a bad conference, they haven't shown separation from the handful of decent teams, and they lost their only game against a top 25 team. I'm actually not even sure what the justification of Boise being ranked above UTSA and New Mexico even is.

Boise has a name they know. They are a good brand.

(11-04-2026 04:27 PM)billybobby777 Wrote:  Boise has a name they know. They are a good brand.

Yep, feels like that was the message being sent with Boise at #25

They are in for now by default - but we aren't sold on them

Boise State will get the benefit of the doubt when the top G6 looks roughly equal. I maintain nobody really dives into SOS for G6.

(11-04-2026 04:59 PM)b2b Wrote:  Boise State will get the benefit of the doubt when the top G6 looks roughly equal. I maintain nobody really dives into SOS for G6.

With their QB out? They may not be so lucky here on out.

(11-01-2026 12:15 PM)Kittonhead Wrote:  

(11-01-2026 03:45 AM)DavidSt Wrote:  UTSA 7-1
New Mexico 7-1
Liberty 7-1
Boise State 7-1

Its difficult for me to take UTSA's CFP bid seriously.

Points scored this season.

1) North Texas 350
2) Memphis 338
3) Florida Atlantic 302
4) Army 269
5) UTSA 268

Defensive points given up.

1) South Florida 116
2) East Carolina 193
3) Tulsa 195
4) Army 204
5) UTSA 205

They are like 5th in offense and 5th in defense in the AC. They aren't far enough ahead of other teams in the AC to think they will likely win out or even win the American.

Compare this to Boise, New Mexico and Liberty....

New Mexico 259/79 (+180)
Liberty 270/108 (+162)
Boise St 287/189 (+89)
UTSA 268/205 (+63)

New Mexico & Liberty look like teams that will probably win out. Boise St its 50/50 and UTSA probably less than 25%.

71% of teams in the American Conference are winning half their games or more.
56% of the MWC is winning half their games or more.
50% of the PAC is winning half their games or more.

I’d think whoever wins the American would deserve extra consideration considering our champ will have faced the toughest competition overall.

(11-01-2026 06:58 AM)Crayton Wrote:  #AvgRnk Bid/Bye% (record)+CCG Team (likelihood of 10k)
Leaders
1918 #14.0 87/0% (11-1)+W UTSA (1772)
1905 #14.9 86/0% (11-1)+W Boise St (3596)
Contenders
1824 #23.0 49/0% (11-1)+L Boise St (639)
1828 #23.2 32/0% (11-1)+L UTSA (423)
1814 #24.0 46/0% (10-2)+W Boise St (1110)
1818 #24.0 33/0% (10-2)+W UTSA (759)
1811 #24.6 32/0% (10-2)+W North Texas (288)
1812 #24.9 25/0% (11-1)+W New Mexico (704)

UTSA loses and now Boise State is alone on top. Even with a loss, they’d be about on par with 12-1 UNM, 11-2 UNT, and 11-2 UTSA. The human polls love New Mexico’s blowout of opponents, so the Lobos may have the edge in that comparison. New Mexico plays tonight.

(Yesterday 01:18 PM)Side.Show.Joe Wrote:  

(11-01-2026 12:15 PM)Kittonhead Wrote:  

(11-01-2026 03:45 AM)DavidSt Wrote:  UTSA 7-1
New Mexico 7-1
Liberty 7-1
Boise State 7-1

Its difficult for me to take UTSA's CFP bid seriously.

Points scored this season.

1) North Texas 350
2) Memphis 338
3) Florida Atlantic 302
4) Army 269
5) UTSA 268

Defensive points given up.

1) South Florida 116
2) East Carolina 193
3) Tulsa 195
4) Army 204
5) UTSA 205

They are like 5th in offense and 5th in defense in the AC. They aren't far enough ahead of other teams in the AC to think they will likely win out or even win the American.

Compare this to Boise, New Mexico and Liberty....

New Mexico 259/79 (+180)
Liberty 270/108 (+162)
Boise St 287/189 (+89)
UTSA 268/205 (+63)

New Mexico & Liberty look like teams that will probably win out. Boise St its 50/50 and UTSA probably less than 25%.

71% of teams in the American Conference are winning half their games or more.
56% of the MWC is winning half their games or more.
50% of the PAC is winning half their games or more.

I’d think whoever wins the American would deserve extra consideration considering our champ will have faced the toughest competition overall.

That means nothing. More teams just means more bottom dwellers. More bottom dwellers means more easy wins in conference.

UTSA loss opens the door for Liberty and Liberty is playing very well.

(11-04-2026 09:20 AM)HP-TBDPITL Wrote:  

(11-03-2026 07:44 PM)Side.Show.Joe Wrote:  

(11-03-2026 04:23 PM)HP-TBDPITL Wrote:  

(11-03-2026 02:35 PM)Side.Show.Joe Wrote:  The first Playoff Poll comes out tonight, and I expect no G programs to be ranked in the Top 25. But, I do expect some be just outside the Top 25 (Boise State, UTSA, & New Mexico would be my guess).

The first CFP poll is all about positioning the brand name teams for inclusion. I am most interested to see where Wake Forest is put right now-with their only loss to Miami and they are rolling everyone for 4 straight games. I have a feeling they will not be just outside the Top 10 and more in the 16-19 placement. CFP doesnt want them in the conversation. No one has even seen them play based on what the networks want to show you.

What does any of that have to do with how the G6 race is shaping up for the Playoff auto-bid?

Its an example of how flawed the CFP vote is right now. G6 has no chance on getting votes because they have no representation. And when a school like Wake Forest plays well-they are treated the same by the CFP committee. Lo and behold I was right, Wake dropped from being #14 in both polls (which should be higher) to #16 in CFP because we have to make room for the "preseason" Top 15. Instead of Boise being 20 or 21, they are #25 by the CFP. Instead of New Mexico being 20 or 25, they arent even ranked. There are three 5-3 teams ranked, three two loss teams ranked in the Top 10. There is no room for UCLA to be unbeaten or Wake Forest to win every game but Miami. And there is no room for the G6 with this committee.

https://collegefootballplayoff.com/sport...massaro/78
App St. AD, MTSU AD. That's 2 out of 8. Except for the writer and NFL player, the other 4 have all worked at G schools. Your statement is completely untrue.

I feel like these last two committees have given WAY too much deference to W/L and not enough to strength of record.

(Today 08:51 AM)Gemofthehills Wrote:  UTSA loss opens the door for Liberty and Liberty is playing very well.

It will be hard for the committee to forget a 60-29 loss. Before that, their only loss was to Texas.

I wonder how Air Force factors into all of this. Their next 3 games are winnable and that would put them at 9-2 going into the matchup with New Mexico.

Boise States best wins are Memphis (7-2) and Western Michigan (6-3)
New Mexico's best wins is NDSU (7-2).

New Mexico will be playing the best teams in their conference the last weeks giving them 3 decent wins compared to Boise State only playing one decent team, Oregon State.

(Today 10:07 AM)TrojanCampaign Wrote:  I wonder how Air Force factors into all of this. Their next 3 games are winnable and that would put them at 9-2 going into the matchup with New Mexico.

Boise States best wins are Memphis (7-2) and Western Michigan (6-3)
New Mexico's best wins is NDSU (7-2).

New Mexico will be playing the best teams in their conference the last weeks giving them 3 decent wins compared to Boise State only playing one decent team, Oregon State.

Who are the 3 decent wins they could land? Wyoming was easily handled by Colorado State, who wont finish in the top half of the PAC. UNLV's best win is NDSU, who has NDSU beat of any quality? UNM has one good game left at AFA. If UNM is as good as people think they should handle UNLV.

UTSA is out barring major losses by many teams.